TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Foot Man

I don't think a vote for Fea is a wise thing to do and it will quickly make me suspicious for anybody that does vote for her.

Why? At least we wouldn't off a gifted that way.

I admit that it would be somewhat cowardly, but surely you can understand the urge that an innocent might have to cut losses? It's not playing properly perhaps, but to say that it is actually suspicious...

Is it any worse than a ++no vote?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why? At least we wouldn't off a gifted that way.

I admit that it would be somewhat cowardly, but surely you can understand the urge that an innocent might have to cut losses? It's not playing properly perhaps, but to say that it is actually suspicious...

Is it any worse than a ++no vote?

Fair point, actually. But I think it'd be weird. Just sayin'. I mean I'm not going to vote you for it, but I'm not supporting it either.


Anyway, back to business. I have to vote in like an hour. Someone give me a reason not to vote Hakon.

[mormegil]

It is an exceptionally safe vote that doesn't leave any sort of trail of evidence. Because once it is decided that Fea will be voted for it gives far too easy a way for wolves/bear to hide.

[the phantom]

Ah, so it's mainly the lack of an evidence trail that you don't like. I see.

I agree with that, but I'm also the paranoid type who fears the worst.

In WW III for instance I suggested that some Ordo volunteer to be lynched due to the fact that we had a host of useful gifteds that could win the game for us and I didn't want them dead immediately.

No one volunteered and my idea was looked at as being very suspicious.

We lynched our Ranger Day 1.

Anyway, I'm not saying lynching Fea is the best option, but what if we were to make sure she had at least a couple votes? That way if, near the deadline, the person who moves into the lead says, "No, I'm the Ranger!" and is sufficiently believable, we have an alternate target to pour our votes onto without the fear that we're switching from the Ranger to the Seer (or being fooled by a baddie).

I doubt I'll actually vote for her, but I wouldn't be opposed to her gaining two votes or so.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, so it's mainly the lack of an evidence trail that you don't like. I see.

I agree with that, but I'm also the paranoid type who fears the worst.

In WW III for instance I suggested that some Ordo volunteer to be lynched due to the fact that we had a host of useful gifteds that could win the game for us and I didn't want them dead immediately.

No one volunteered and my idea was looked at as being very suspicious.

We lynched our Ranger Day 1.

Anyway, I'm not saying lynching Fea is the best option, but what if we were to make sure she had at least a couple votes? That way if, near the deadline, the person who moves into the lead says, "No, I'm the Ranger!" and is sufficiently believable, we have an alternate target to pour our votes onto without the fear that we're switching from the Ranger to the Seer (or being fooled by a baddie).

I doubt I'll actually vote for her, but I wouldn't be opposed to her gaining two votes or so.

Part 1:

Hmm... you know, you have a point there, phantom. On second thought, I believe you're right - lynching Fea may be our safest option. I'm not going to cast my vote just yet, but Fea is worth considering.

[Hakon]

The way things seem to have turned out so far is either we are going with Phantom's idea of lynching Fea or I am getting lynched. I already have one definite(Morm) vote for me and one possible(Alona). I say possible because she can still retract.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Part 1:
On second thought, I believe you're right - lynching Fea may be our safest
option. I'm not going to cast my vote just yet, but Fea is worth considering.

Not 'may' it is the safest option anyway you look at it. That is the major problem with it. It won't help anybody but the wolves to do such a strategy because no trail will exist.

[Boromir88]

The Dark Monarch makes out with boiled Grade D taco meat every monday and wednesday

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Not 'may' it is the safest option anyway you look at it. That is the major problem with it. It won't help anybody but the wolves to do such a strategy because no trail will exist.

I meant "safest for the village" of course.

[Rikae]

Part 2:

We really need to start discussing the surveys seriously before we run out of time. Everyone should say what they think the mods' plan was, since that's open for discussion.

I, for one, think that the mods were unlikely to choose someone feared or distrusted by the seer as a baddie - the game would be over too quickly. I also think they might have made logical choices and had the gifteds trust each other (not that I'm saying we should speculate about their identities, but the gifteds themselves can consider this).

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Part 2:

We really need to start discussing the surveys seriously before we run out of time. Everyone should say what they think the mods' plan was, since that's open for discussion.

I, for one, think that the mods were unlikely to choose someone feared or distrusted by the seer as a baddie - the game would be over too quickly. I also think they might have made logical choices and had the gifteds trust each other (not that I'm saying we should speculate about their identities, but the gifteds themselves can consider this).

I agree with the gifteds trusting each other to some extent. I think that the seer and ranger most likely trust each other but the hunter is one that distrusts the other gifteds. As for the wolves one is probably a feared, one is a distrusted person and the final one a trusted person.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Doktor

We really need to start discussing the surveys seriously before we run out of time. Everyone should say what they think the mods' plan was, since that's open for discussion.

I, for one, think that the mods were unlikely to choose someone feared or distrusted by the seer as a baddie - the game would be over too quickly. I also think they might have made logical choices and had the gifteds trust each other (not that I'm saying we should speculate about their identities, but the gifteds themselves can consider this).

I truly had not considered surveys on an individual basis like that. I was thinking more along the lines of "distrusted people will be less likely to gain roles" and "Surely there'll will be at least one trusted/believable villain" and so on. It hadn't occured to me that the Villains would be selected based upon the individual answers of the Seer.

Hmm.... interesting... If that is indeed the case, the Seer should try to work against their usual leanings.

As far having the gifteds trust each other- I don't know about that. How strong exactly did the Mod want the gifteds to be. If you give them gifts plus set them up so they're likely to work together, wouldn't that be unbalanced? I would think that at least one of the gifteds doesn't trust one of the others.

The Shirriffs, well, it could be anything. It may have amused Boro to make two poeple BFFs who are not known for being BFFs in other games, but then he may have done the obvious and paired a more likely duo. I don't think I'll try and speculate on that.

On the surface I would say the Villains and Bear, in order to have a better shot at survival, are more likely to be trusted than distrusted. But if we lynch the only people we trust, where does that leave us if we're wrong? And I can't imagine that all of them are in the same mold.

And what about those that the Villains and Bear fear? If they all said, "Mac scares me. I'm always worried he'll catch me or foil my plans," then it's pretty well a guarantee that Mac wasn't made the Seer. He's too likely to die under those conditions. And perhaps that's why Boro only required two answers per question- so that the baddies when making their picks couldn't rule out too many people. Meh... Am I getting nowhere with this? Because it feels like I am.

Perhaps I'll let others speculate and see if anything stirs me.

[Pitchwife]

OK, here's my opinions on the people who have said the most so far (I'll skip the 4 pages of early morning banter and gnitirw sdrawckab for now and start with the beginning of the bear discussion).
Hakon - sounds like a rather inexperienced player trying to get the hang of it, making an effort to contribute and suggesting experimental strategy. We may not agree with his suggestions, but I see nothing in them that shouts bear, wolf or cobbler.
Mac - fewer posts than some others, but those reasonable.
morm - I can understand his initial vote for Hakon as him being simply annoyed, but his retracting and then locking it, thus wasting any chance of correcting later when there's more evidence, worries me. If he's innocent, that was unnecessarily harsh.
Nerwen- I'm glad our Reverser has reverted to posting legibly. A nice mixture of sensible and amusing. I find her difficult to read even when she's not writing backwards, so no opinion as of now.
Rikae - talking sense, I'd say, except for the fact that she's done a lot to prolong a discussion she says herself is useless; maybe because there was little else to discuss at the time, or maybe... I don't know.
To be continued.

(x-ed with everything since phantom's #264, need some time to catch up)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by morm

It is an exceptionally safe vote that doesn't leave any sort of trail of evidence. Because once it is decided that Fea will be voted for it gives far too easy a way for wolves/bear to hide.

The morm is right. Listen to him.

Originally Posted by Sally

Lynch me for it if you want, but I'm not discussing the surveys. Every other werewolf game we rely on how people act, vote, etc. in order to lynch baddies and I don't see why this should be any different.

The Sally is right, too. Listen to her.

My problem is that both want to lynch Hakon, who is in all probability innocent, with a small chance of cobblery. Don't listen to them!

[Rikae]

Not enough or enough of substance from:
autume
Durelin
Formendacil
Inziladun
Lommy (but she excused herself)
Shasta
Mira

Shall we dust off ye olde "Lynch the Quiet Ones" theory? Of the others, I have no strong suspects, although Nessa and tp have been tripping my radar a bit... however, the Rangifer Tarandus are resting far too comfortably on this heap of players...

EDIT: Bolding and x'd with Morm.

[Rikae]

Hm, gotta wonder why Brinn is more worried about being suspected than about catching a wolf...

[Hakon]

Sally, of course I wish I was either a wolf or the cobbler. Sadly I am not.

Rikae, I would take Inziladun off that list. At least we know he has been reading these posts and has been online. He also has made several posts unlike the rest of the people on that list. Why is Nessa tripping your radar?

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by morm

This seems awfully strange. I get it that only by lynching the bear will we get the kills to one but she seems to discount the lynching of the wolves completely. A wolf wouldn't be unhappy to get rid of the bear. Also just because odds are slim doesn't mean we shouldn't at least try. This line of thought makes me fairly suspicious of Brinn.

I was just saying that because the main argument for not voting Fea seemed to be so we could eliminate the threat of two kills per Night immediately and the only way to do that is to kill the bear since it'll take multiple Days to lynch the wolves down to zero. While it's difficult to kill a baddie on Day One as it is and we'll most likely lynch an innocent, if we do kill a baddie, it's more likely we'd find a wolf and not the bear since they are larger in numbers. Of course lynching a wolf would be great, but it won't reduce the number of kills per Night.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Why? At least we wouldn't off a gifted that way.

I admit that it would be somewhat cowardly, but surely you can understand the urge that an innocent might have to cut losses? It's not playing properly perhaps, but to say that it is actually suspicious...

Is it any worse than a ++no vote?

You've seen me argue for just that before, I think - but in this case, this innocent has a far stronger urge to reduce the baddies' numbers as soon as possible. Perhaps it's because I think we have a good chance of lynching one toDay, for some reason... though I can't quite say why.

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You've seen me argue for just that before, I think - but in this case, this innocent has a far stronger urge to reduce the baddies' numbers as soon as possible. Perhaps it's because I think we have a good chance of lynching one toDay, for some reason... though I can't quite say why.

Maybe its because in the last two games a werewolf was lynched on day one. Let us hope it is the same here.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Maybe its because in the last two games a werewolf was lynched on day one. Let us hope it is the same here.

Well, I wasn't in the last game, but in this game we have, first of all, lots of baddies, which increases the odds of getting one by pure chance, and the surveys, which, if we could get off of this bear topic, could be very helpful.