TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Nienna]

I'm just wondering, Morm, why you think that the bear would only try and kill wolves?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Disappointed she wasn't gifted, are you?

Oh yes, because if I were evil I would make a slip that obvious. Give me some credit here, Rikae.

I meant because she wasn't a wolf or the bear.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm just wondering, Morm, why you think that the bear would only try and kill wolves?

I think (please correct me if I'm wrong) it's because the wolves have a better chance of killing the Bear at Night than the village does of lynching it during the Day. Thus, it's in the Bear's best interests to pick off the wolves first. I think that's what someone said yesterDay, at least.

Okay, back to analyzing.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Stick

it's because the wolves have a better chance of killing the Bear at Night than the village does of lynching it during the Day. Thus, it's in the Bear's best interests to pick off the wolves first

Mmmk. That definitely makes more sense now. Thanks.

[Rikae]

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Mira, I was joking.

Agree with morm on lynching phantom. No seer to figure out his role. Lynching me would be a waste - you'll want me around later.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Right, make no assumptions and don't narrow lists down artificially. Sorry the only other way to narrow down the list is to look at who is alive from one day to the next. Take my thoughts or not I don't really care but I will state what I am thinking, it may be useful to some. I, unlike you it would seem, need to narrow the list down to a mangegable size and think of most likely scenarios given teh evidence we have up to this point. Did not Aragorn and the hunters do the same with the puzzle of Merry and Pippin, they were fairly close but not 100%.

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big.

At this point my main suspect is Rikae actually. Something isn't sitting right with me on her.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big. .

I really would not like to spell out why he wouldn't necessarily choose to hunt wolves, since, as phantom points out, it's better if he does, but:
if there is only one wolf left alive and we lynch it, the bear is on his own in picking us off one by one - not necessarily desirable early on. Maybe it's not ideal bear strategy, but my way of thinking worked for me when I was a bear (yeah, and now someone will accuse me of giving tips to the bear, won't they? A fine corner you backed me into, morm).

Originally Posted by morm

At this point my main suspect is Rikae actually. Something isn't sitting right with me on her.

Just don't shoot me. They say it is a capital offense.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mira, I was joking.

So I totally missed that post the first time around when you made the original statement and though the you added later was for another post and...yeah. I need to read more carefully.

[mormegil]

Mac, the only other one who is pinging the radar is Sally. Yesterday and today she seems confident, it's not the right word but almost smug. Confidence isn't gained by being ordo or gifted.

[mormegil]

Rikae, think about it for the strategy to not work the bear would need to be incredibly successful. Hunting wolves at night wouldn't be easy so logically he would start as early as possible.

Maybe it's not ideal bear strategy, but my way of thinking worked for me when I was a bear (yeah, and now someone will accuse me of giving tips to the bear, won't they? A fine corner you backed me into, morm).

What corner? I didn't do any such thing, but it does allow you to play the victim role by saying. Well done, nice move really but I've seen it before and am ready for it.

[mormegil]

Good night for the time being.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Mira

And what would that be, pray tell, oh mighty Bubbles?

Enemy is reading, too. :x

Originally Posted by Inzil

So considering voting someone is the same as actually doing it?

Of course not, but since you considered it, you obviously thought that the reasons his voters had were mostly valid, so why should they, from your perspective, be evil?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What corner? I didn't do any such thing, but it does allow you to play the victim role by saying. Well done, nice move really but I've seen it before and am ready for it.

You asked me a question I could not honestly answer without doing something phantom called me suspicious for yesterDay.
Victim role, well, I'll be totally honest - I get the impression I'm being set up. Framed. In fact, I'm so irritated I'd better not post for a while.