TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Rikae]

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Mira, I was joking.

Agree with morm on lynching phantom. No seer to figure out his role. Lynching me would be a waste - you'll want me around later.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Right, make no assumptions and don't narrow lists down artificially. Sorry the only other way to narrow down the list is to look at who is alive from one day to the next. Take my thoughts or not I don't really care but I will state what I am thinking, it may be useful to some. I, unlike you it would seem, need to narrow the list down to a mangegable size and think of most likely scenarios given teh evidence we have up to this point. Did not Aragorn and the hunters do the same with the puzzle of Merry and Pippin, they were fairly close but not 100%.

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big.

At this point my main suspect is Rikae actually. Something isn't sitting right with me on her.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big. .

I really would not like to spell out why he wouldn't necessarily choose to hunt wolves, since, as phantom points out, it's better if he does, but:
if there is only one wolf left alive and we lynch it, the bear is on his own in picking us off one by one - not necessarily desirable early on. Maybe it's not ideal bear strategy, but my way of thinking worked for me when I was a bear (yeah, and now someone will accuse me of giving tips to the bear, won't they? A fine corner you backed me into, morm).

Originally Posted by morm

At this point my main suspect is Rikae actually. Something isn't sitting right with me on her.

Just don't shoot me. They say it is a capital offense.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mira, I was joking.

So I totally missed that post the first time around when you made the original statement and though the you added later was for another post and...yeah. I need to read more carefully.

[mormegil]

Mac, the only other one who is pinging the radar is Sally. Yesterday and today she seems confident, it's not the right word but almost smug. Confidence isn't gained by being ordo or gifted.

[mormegil]

Rikae, think about it for the strategy to not work the bear would need to be incredibly successful. Hunting wolves at night wouldn't be easy so logically he would start as early as possible.

Maybe it's not ideal bear strategy, but my way of thinking worked for me when I was a bear (yeah, and now someone will accuse me of giving tips to the bear, won't they? A fine corner you backed me into, morm).

What corner? I didn't do any such thing, but it does allow you to play the victim role by saying. Well done, nice move really but I've seen it before and am ready for it.

[mormegil]

Good night for the time being.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Mira

And what would that be, pray tell, oh mighty Bubbles?

Enemy is reading, too. :x

Originally Posted by Inzil

So considering voting someone is the same as actually doing it?

Of course not, but since you considered it, you obviously thought that the reasons his voters had were mostly valid, so why should they, from your perspective, be evil?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Of course not, but since you considered it, you obviously thought that the reasons his voters had were mostly valid, so why should they, from your perspective, be evil?

MY consideration of voting for him was based entirely on his vote retraction and the reason for it he gave. Those who voted for him before that I find suspicious, in that I saw nothing to merit a vote for him at that time. Obviously tum should also be scrutinized for being the deciding factor.

[Nerwen]

!ydobyreve olleH

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nerwen, has a habit of missing Day 1, but still with no reason provided as to why, the same will go for her. No vote today you'll be mod-fired. (Again this is negotiable, but again it will be difficult to change my mind).

Sorry, I'll be sure to vote toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Alona.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by morm

Left out a key point here. I think Pitch dreamed of phantom and discovered that he was the Ranger or Hunter and they were able to talk at Night. Elaboration to come if wanted.

Definitely not wanted. What does an innocent morm gain from saying this? Hint - it's "nothing".

[satansaloser2005]

Normally I'd not bother, but this is misrepresentation. I know Dun didn't mean any harm, but I wanna clear it up anyway.

Originally Posted by Dun

Sally- voted Hakon, initially giving no reason. She then retracted and locked it in again for him, saying she would 'think clearer' when he was gone.
(Hakon 3)

I gave reasons earlier in the Day. Basically (to recap and also add, which I also tried to do at the end of the Day when the Downs died for me) I didn't like how he was starting/supporting side discussions, being overly defensive in my opinion, and generally giving off bad vibes to me. Basically a typical Day One vote, but at the time I felt pretty decent about it. (Obviously now I'm not as pleased with myself, since he wasn't a baddie, but it's the thought that counts.)


Didn't mean to side track, but I noticed that and wanted to clear it up for Dun's benefit.


I think I need to go to bed. You've got me for....twenty more minutes or so.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, now I managed to read through Day1 and these are the impressions I got based on it:

alonariel - cute avvie, but I still keep mixing her up with all the other newbies and half of Fea's gang
autume- not much to go on, slightly fishy (ha!) when switching her vote
Brinn- really touchy feely, whether due to a stressing role (werebear, anyone?) or bad day, no idea
Durelin- I like her
Formendacil- I like him
Inziladun- quite okay this far, I don't get the suspicion against him
Macalaure- not quite as suspicious as last time I played with him (translation for those who missed Brinn's game: seems fine this far, was a wolf last time and I totally caught him, speaking of which, I still have some reps to give out for that one...)
Mira- the banter-girl
morm- good ol' grumpy morm, I like him
Nerwen- when reading her posts I realised I missed her jokes when I was away from BD for several weeks... so it may be biased when I say she seems fine
Nessa- don't get why everybody suspects her
Nienna- totally under the radar
Rikae- could take a relaxing holiday (maybe together with Brinn, aww, wouldn't that be sweet? ) and looks a bit suspicious to me
sally- innocent enough
Shasta- gives me bad vibes
the phantom- messing around as usual

Now I'm off to read toDay. I will comment as I read in order to save time so sorry if I end up parroting people!

[Mirandir]

As promised.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Enemy is reading, too. :x

Ugh that occurred to me in the shower, and believe me, I am bashing my head against the wall like it's my job. Which would probably be better than my actual job which will take me away for most of tomorrow again. Ugh.

On to Hakon-analysis!

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Ugh that occurred to me in the shower, and believe me, I am bashing my head against the wall like it's my job. Which would probably be better than my actual job which will take me away for most of tomorrow again. Ugh.

Ah which reminds me I should probably make some form of official mod-ruling here.

Unless I missed someone, Lommy, Mira and Nerwen did not vote yesterday.

Lommy warned me well in advance about not being able to participate much in the first couple days. Plus she is with family and 'Downer guests, which I believe to be more important than checking into a game. So, her missed vote will not count towards the mod-fire rule.

Mira did give proper warning about business and possibly not being able to vote. Yet she did not make use of the ++No Vote rule that I put up in place, mostly for those reasons. So, Mira, if you do not vote today, you will be mod-fired. This is negotiable, but outside of spontaneously imploding, having your computer blow up, or some other serious reason, I doubt I'll change my mind.

Nerwen, has a habit of missing Day 1, but still with no reason provided as to why, the same will go for her. No vote today you'll be mod-fired. (Again this is negotiable, but again it will be difficult to change my mind).

If you care to hear why I am such a heavy stickler on voting, I can explain, but I doubt anyone wants to hear a Moderators grumbling about missing votes.

[Mirandir]

For the sake of my own sanity, I'm going to skip the meaningless banter posts from the first few pages.

#20
Wants to know why morm said lynch phantom first in the admin thread.

#25
Actually attempts analysis on Day 1.

#35
Agrees with phantom's points (bear kill wolves, gifteds leave clues, psuedo-deadline)
thinks phantom is probably gifted

#132
Contemplates importance of the surveys

#137
Reeeally wants to look at surveys.

*insert lots of posts about the surveys and bantering with Rikae and a case of mistaken identity here*

Really started getting on a lot of people's nerves (especially Rikae's) with the whole survey business. Could he have been distracting from something else? Such as a slip he had made previously that I missed? Maybe.

/end mini-analysis

#170
"I still think the bear can kill at least one person we are suspicious of."
Thinks the bear will help the village

*insert morm vote for Hakon*

#178
Admits is very arrogant. What can he hope to gain from this, Mira wonders. Still thinks the village can convince the bear to do its bidding.

*insert Rikae getting really annoyed and threatening to vote Hakon out of sheer irritation*

#182
"If we figure out who the bear is, the bear will either end up lynched or a wolf will kill it. So if we figure it out then during the night phase the bear can kill a possible cobbler or wolf since the second the next day phase starts the bear will most likely by lynched or the bear will die int he night phase because a wolf kills it."
Makes what I (and apparently Nerwen) think is a completely useless statement.

#184
Still harping on the bear.

#189
Says this topic is causing an unnecessary argument and we should focus on the wolves.

*insert morm retracting vote for Hakon and locking in vote for Hakon*

*insert somehow getting back on the topic of surveys which I thought we had already dealt with*

#237
"For players I trust I think I had said Mac and Shasta. For players I distrust I think I had said Nessa and Inziladun."

#263
Thinks Rikae's optimism about lynching a wolf Day 1 is because it happened in the past 2 games.

#268
Feels people need to vote Fea or Hakon will die.

#273
Responds to Rikae's analysis of mod-choosing of the roles about trusting and not trusting certain people and the likelihood of having feared or distrusted people as the seer.
"As for the wolves one is probably a feared, one is a distrusted person and the final one a trusted person."

*insert sally not wanting to discuss surveys*

*insert Rikae saying Hakon is a safe vote, easy lynch, and probably innocent*

#278
Doesn't like morm's vote for him. Cites last game as reason why he shouldn't by lynched.

#288
Agrees with Brinn that morm voted Hakon because of Hakon's comment about morm fearing phantom.

#296
Likes the idea of voting Fea.

#303
Wants Rikae to take Inzil off her suspicious list on the grounds that he has been around and contributing unlike some other people. If he wasn't a known ordo I would suggest he was trying to protect a fellow wolf.

Boro, when the cobbler is killed is his role revealed as such or as an ordo?

#315
Suspicion list:
1. morm - nothing but a gut feeling
2. sally - might be cobbler
3. phantom - "He actually seems very innocent it just that he is very active and suggesting good ideas. In in my opinion that is the best way to hide being a wolf."
4. Rikae - might be bear

#322
Thinks the bear is someone who talked about the bear a lot, such as Rikae.

#350
Would like to know why Pitchwife finds Nessa the most cunning of the newbies.

#387
Doesn't like autumne's wagon-vote for him.

#394
Thinks Shasta makes a good point about Pitchwife

#463
Votes Pitchwife to save himself.

~~~~~

The one solid connection I've found between the two dead that I've analyzed so far is that Rikae had a lot of interaction with both of them. This could be nothing or she could be evil. Hakon thought she might be the bear, but I seriously doubt that a Rikaebear would make such an obvious kill choice. The bear is probably someone who was annoyed by Hakon and his speculation about the bear role (or in general).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by mormegil

What corner? I didn't do any such thing, but it does allow you to play the victim role by saying. Well done, nice move really but I've seen it before and am ready for it.

You asked me a question I could not honestly answer without doing something phantom called me suspicious for yesterDay.
Victim role, well, I'll be totally honest - I get the impression I'm being set up. Framed. In fact, I'm so irritated I'd better not post for a while.