TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Thinlómien]

Alona about others

Nerwen - Day1: complains about her sdrawkcab gnitirw twice, Day2: greets Nerwen with annoyance (because of sdrawkcab gnitirw), replies to her speculation about Hakon the Bearkill, clarifies a question she didn't understand, Day3: says she's under her radar, says she reminds her of an innocent Nerwen from the previous game, is unsure about her and keeping an eye on her

morm - Day1: relies on his reasoning when voting Hakon, Day2: votes him for hiding behind a vote, is wondering whether to switch the vote or not and decides not to until he returns, Day3: has a wolf-hunch that is fading after rereading

Mac - Day1: jokingly replies to his suspicion, asks if his vote for her is payback from the previous game, Day2: seeks to allay his fears by telling she's been considering retracting, Day3: replies to his points (a few times)

Rikae - Day1: thanks her for defending her, Day2: say she might be framed by the bear and wonder which players would profit from getting rid of her, says she's not ready to vote her just yet, replies to her suspicions, keeps back and forthing with her about stuff (a lot), says Rikae's right when pointing out her weird willigness to retract, questions the joke part of her vote for her, says her vote makes her unhappy, Day3: replies to her teachings and later to her questioning her defense of Sally and Lommy

Nienna - Day1: ♥s her for making a vote tally

Mira - Day2: defends her sense of humour to Form, replies to her bear-speculation about Rikae, praises her contributions, again replies to bear speculation by saying the bear is probably a newbie, says her Rikae-bear speculation was a bit tongue-in-cheek

Autume - Day2: replies to a comment of hers, speculates with her about morm, Day3: wary of her 'cos she agrees with people so much, suspects her "less than a hunch"

Sally - Day2: replies to her queries about Hakon's death, questions her voting similarily to her, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, Day3: praises Sally's songs, defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted, does not suspect her, says baddie Sally is different from this Sally, thinks her long explanations confusing and slightly suspicious, jokes with her about tp

Lommy - Day2: admires her willingness to stay awake late and her sig, Day3: defends her to Rikae by saying they cross-posted but echoes Rikae's suspicion over the grateful-remark, does not suspect her, talks with her about smileys and says she can stop using them if they're annoying, suspects for grateful-comment but nothing else

Form - Day3: can't get a read on him

Durelin - Day3: suspects her for only voting based on the tie, replies to her comments

Nessa - nothing


Others about Alona

Nerwen - Day1: promises her not to sdrawkcab etirw (I just discovered how it's easy to do that and now I know why Nerwen got so hooked, btw ), Day2: doesn't understand Alona's question about arranging deaths, disagrees with her newbie-bear speculation, Day3: suggests making her happy by lynching her and Sally, says morm is more suspicious than her and votes him

Rikae - Day1: asks if anyone has opinions on the newer players including Alona, doesn't suspect her and doesn't want to vote her because she won't be around, Day2: says she hasn't left an impression, summarises her actions and concludes she's a bit suspicious (could be a cobbler or a poor newbie, though), says her vote explanation was weird, replies to her defenses, says she and autume are oddly buddy-buddy and says Alona's constant bringing up angry-bear theory looks schemed, doesn't think she and Autume are BBF's, wonders why she and Sally are both suddenly thinking of switching votes once tp questions it, votes her and clarifies it's not a joke vote, apologises for making her unhappy by voting her, Day3: suspects those who voted to save her, lectures to her about life and werewolf (sorry couldn't resist that phrasing ), says her defense of Sally and Lommy doesn't make sense, suspects her and says she's using newness as a shield, thinsk there's a wolf among Sally/autume/Alona and it's be useful to know which one, replies to Lommy's suspicions by saying that if the above trio is innocent Lommy should be looked at, considers to switch her vote to her, speculates about the light her death would shed, reatracts her vote from Sally to Alona

Mac - Day1: doesn't like her vote, votes her based on the vote and being vague and fueling the Hakon-wagon, explains her the vote for her and is troubled by her reaction to it, retracts from Alona to Zil because the vote has no support, Day2: is doubtful about her, wonders about bandwagons (including Alonawagon), Day3: wonders about people wanting to save her and why she took so long to save herself, is not convinced by her defense, she's his best suspect, votes her because prefers her to the -orms and says he may switch

Nienna - Day1: says Mac vote for her makes sense but Pitch's doesn't, thanks her for ♥ing her, Day2: analyses her vote

Sally - Day1: talks with her about Pitch's retraction, Day2: replies to her question about voting similarily to her by saying it's coincidence, talks about Lari's schedules and Serenity with her, retracts to save her because doesn't find her too suspicious, Day3: highlights xing with her vote and says she felt dumb because of that and that she was just planning to break the tie, Day3: wants to analyse her cos she looks suspicious, explains saving her at length while interrogated by Rikae, explains her last game's behaviour to her, jokes with her about tp and sorta disapproves of her no vote, suspects her and wants to take another look at her, says she's ready to switch her vote to her, retracts from morm to morm and ties morm and Alona

Form - Day1: says he confuses Nessa and Alona and decides to vote the first rather than the latter, Day2: says she has produced little substance and classifies her under "Hasn't Said Enough to Have a Trustworthy Feeling", speculates about he and autume being wolves together without reaching a conclusion, Day3: says her late Day2 behaviour is jumpy and suspicious, wonders if her new calmness is due to packmate-coaching, says she looks like a jumpy newbiewolf who's more interested about saving herself than catching wolves, speculates about the light her death would shed, says he'll probably vote her, votes her

Mira - Day2: thanks for her praising her sense of humour and talks with her about Rikae, replies Alona's "ununderstandable" question and thanks her for praising her, follows Nerwen's example of voting morm instead of Alona because of suspecting him more

Autume - Day2: agrees with her that it's difficult to guess people's roles, doesn't suspect her, questions morm based on her reasoning, says she's buddy-buddy with her because they're both new, says she understands her (possibly because they're both new), Day3: speculates about her and Sally being in cahoots in a confused manner, says it made sense that she saved herself, feels she's innocent

Lommy - Day2: says she has a cute avvie and keeps mixing her up with others, agrees with her about the village being in a tight spot, says Alona is completely under her radar, says she'd vote Inzil to save morm or Alona, retracts to save her and says she should be grateful, Day3: says saved her because she was neutral while Inzil was slightly suspicious and grateful-remark was there because it was about morm earlier, is disturbed by her use of smileys and says it's suspicious, says "the a-ladies" are rather jumpy and that if all of alona/autume/Sally are innocent Rikae should be lynched, lists her under "slightly suspicious" for being jumpy and eager to please

Nessa - Day2: votes her for being double-sided, Day3: gets a wolvish feel from her, would like to vote her but won't 'cos she can't be around to defend herself

Durelin - Day2: notes Alona's placeholder vote, votes her because she's more suspicious than morm or Inzil, Day3: would like to lynch her (alongside with half of the village), says she and autume are "jumpy, defensive, while agreeable, and highlighting new-ness", says attention away from her and Sally is not necessarily bad, explains her vote to her, disapproves of her vote for Norm, names her as a part of the ball of wolvishness, hopes she and Nessa are wolves, wonders if she's innocent because a wolf wouldn't waste vote power, votes her

morm - Day3: says she looks mighty suspicious based on her Day2 voting, doesn't trust her based on the no-vote, says he'll vote her or Sally, votes her, says that if he dies she (and some others) should be looked at


Next up: conclusions
then: reading and commenting all the posts I probably xed with

[Thinlómien]

probable-ish mates
Nerwen - there seems to be some sort of friendliness between the two (arguing about backwards-stuff), Alona keeps flip-flopping about Nerwen, Nerwen votes morm when he and Alona are running for the execution block (although, I'm not sure she'd do that if she was a fellow wolf - I can also see the possibility that Nerwen is a cobbler and that was suggested in the wolves' Nightly chats, or then Nerwen's just innocent)
morm - Alona might have been looking for cover by her fellow on Day1 and then when accused of it starts accusing morm of similar behaviour, morm ignores Alona until she's widely suspected and then he too suspects her
Mira - the two ignore each other quite nicely but Mira votes to tie morm with Alona (again the question of obviousity vs cobblerism vs innocence arises, though)

possible mates
Nienna - hardly any interaction
Sally - Alona flip-flops about Sally a lot, Sally attempts to save Alona twice and they seem very friendly with each other - the problem is that they look even too friendly to be fellow wolves (is Sally a cobbler, was Alona just buddying her up?)
Autume - they're quite nice to each other even though Alona suspects Autume a bit, but they seem somehow too obvious a pair to be fellows
Form - she avoids mentioning him but he suspects her... hmm
Nessa - I don't like Nessa not voting Alona because she can't be around and thus no-voting, but if they were fellows, why not give the vote to Form whom she also suspected?

unlikely mates
Mac - I don't think Mac would be as nasty as to accuse and vote a newbie fellow on Day1
Rikae - too much interaction and too much constant suspicion from Rikae's part
Durelin - picked Alona for lynching even though had two other (and several more others) options


edit: xed with Dureley

[Boromir88]

Reading all this analysis makes my brain hurt...how do you all do it?

[Formendacil]

I'm going to assume it's not the deaths of Alona and Shasta that have provoked this strangely quieter day--I had under two pages to catch up on since last night!

My immediate first impressions have to do with Morm, who has set himself up rather nicely as a presumed Known Innocent--which is fair enough on his end, since we all do it, but it's rather disconcerting how everyone else has jumped on it. He hasn't, in any case, been subjected to much heavy scrutiny today.

Perhaps this bugs me because he's so certain I'm the Bear, and I know I'm not.

Relatedly, I'm really bothered by Morm's certainty that he was the probable Wolf-kill last night. While the argument is possible that he was on the Wolves' menu, how he comes to this conclusively I've no idea--unless people are talking out of turn on MSN or something, but as I assume that's not the case, I'm more inclined to read an over-bold assumption on the part of Morm here--a capitalisation, perhaps, on the fact that the Ranger is dead and the Wolves obviously aren't telling.

Which is not the say that Morm couldn't have been the Wolves' attempted Kill last night, but given his abysmal lack of accuracy where my alleged ursinity is concerned, I'm definitely not going to take his logic on faith.

Let's try and reason it out then ourselves...

Regarding the case that Morm was the Wolf-kill, I think the following two points need to be considered:

1) Why would the wolves have gone after someone attracting so much suspicion? If he's not one of their own number, they would surely be glad to have him around today, to keep the focus off themselves.

2.) The Wolves want the Bear dead too. They can't win if s/he's still alive. Unless they think Morm is the bear or a Gifted, it doesn't stand to reason that they would kill him off when he might have the potential to lead the village to finding and killing the Bear for them.

Morm has not adequately addressed these questions, in my opinions, and they are grounds enough alone for not assuming he was the Night's pick.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Durelin

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

This makes sense to me. However, while Sally's eminently capable of playing a wolf playing at a Cobbler, I incline to think she isn't, and this begs the question then: do we assume Sally's Cobblery, but let her live, so as to catch an actually dangerous baddie? Or do we go for a more certain baddie, and take out the Cobbler in lieu of consensus on a baddie?

The bet-hedger in me likes the latter, but the village in general (despite not agreeing on who is furry), seems to think we've a good chance of catching a wolf or bear today, and with two deaths looming tonight and the Cobbler being more of a nuisance than a danger, I'm inclined to strike more boldly than my nature would prefer.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night.

++Morm

[satansaloser2005]

Popping to the grocery store but I wanted to mention/ask something.

Lommie, the people you say you will vote are the people who are on your wolf list. Doesn't it make more sense to go after your bear candidates first and decrease the number of Night kills? I don't know if it's just me or if that's weird. Of course she's not around but I look forward to seeing her response when she gets back.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Form

What difference, if any, makes you assume someone might be a Wolf or might be a Bear? Because a lot of the gut-feeling suspicion going around might, in fact, be accurate about Good or Evil, but I scarcely see how it can distinguish between Union and Free-Lancer.

Well, although half of the village discredits this reasoning, I think the way people talk about the bear may point at them being the bear themselves. As for wolvishness, it's about being mate-looking with known or suspected wolves. And partly it's just gut-feeling. Like, Rikae, Mac and Durelin all creep me out a bit and they do not look like Alona's mates, so I keep the option of one of them being the bear.

I'm thinking of voting Morm because he's been avoiding the noose for too long and his role would undoubtedly reveal stuff.

But then again, I'm not sure if a wolf would insist so strongly on being the Night-kill and I want to lynch him exactly because he could be either a wolf or the bear.

Should I vote Form then? He seems a lot more innocent now that he has come back.

Mira? Sally? Nerwen?

Argh... I'll go brush my teeth and think about my vote meanwhile.


edit: xed with Sally

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night.

++Morm

Heh.

I'm really not sure I trust this vote, given Nessa's overall quietness in the game, but I definitely like it. And I'm irked enough with Morm I'm inclined to go much the same way myself. Nice to see I wouldn't be alone.

[Thinlómien]

It is very enlightening to read Mac's analysis because he seems to have spotted stuff I totally missed and also missed some stuff I noticed and our conclusions were partly the same, partly different.

Off to make a list of sorts...

[Thinlómien]

(in no particular order)

Bears
Form
morm
Durelin
... Mac or Rikae...?

Wolves
Form
morm
Nerwen
Mira
Sally

Cobblers
Nerwen
Mira
Sally

(Currently not under suspicion: Nessa, Autume, Nienna. Fair enough - they're under the radar. I don't get the current trend of suspecting Nienna, though, because if I had to bet I'd say she's innocent. And also - currently only under passive speculative suspicion: Mac, Rikae and Durelin.)

Means I'm going to vote Form, morm, Nerwen, Sally or Mira. Probably either Form or morm because a) they both could be either wolves or bears aka killing machines and b) I feel their deaths would reveal more than Nerwen's or Mira's or probably even Sally's. (Or then I'm a sexist like Durelin. )


edit: xed and added a )

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

(in no particular order)

Bears
Form
morm
Durelin
... Mac or Rikae...?

Wolves
Form
morm
Nerwen
Mira
Sally

.....

Means I'm going to vote Form, morm, Nerwen, Sally or Mira. Probably either Form or morm because a) they both could be either wolves or bears aka killing machines and b) I feel their deaths would reveal more than Nerwen's or Mira's or probably even Sally's. (Or then I'm a sexist like Durelin.

A couple questions, here Lommy--which actually might be applicable to the entire village:

What difference, if any, makes you assume someone might be a Wolf or might be a Bear? Because a lot of the gut-feeling suspicion going around might, in fact, be accurate about Good or Evil, but I scarcely see how it can distinguish between Union and Free-Lancer.

Secondly--okay it's more of a comment than a question--I'm rather amused that, since he's the other people who started the whole anti-me waggon, that Morm is apparently coëval with me in your suspicions.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Hmm, Morm, you seem to bangwagon quite a bit, I've noticed after reading some. Quite suspicious if I may say so.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Hmm, Morm, you seem to bangwagon quite a bit, I've noticed after reading some. Quite suspicious if I may say so.

No you're right of course, I mean I started Day 1 by voting for Hakon, clearly a bandwagon. On Day 2 I voted for Rikae, I might have been number 2, again clearly a bandwagon and it is to be remembered that I had to vote early and leave for the rest of the day to travel across country. On Day 3 I voted for Alona a wolf which also saved myself...very suspicious band-wagonning going on here.