Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like this bandwagon. It looks too easy. (One can argue why I seem to want things as complicated as possible...)

Applause, applause! To me it looks downright appalling. Now maybe I'm just too stupid to really get what the case against him actually is, maybe I also want to think too complicated, but it just looks way too much like Zil has been set up as toDay's target by the wolves, as Legate was yesterDay, if in a different way; and I'm quite determined not to be part of the wagon this time.
True, Zil has acted in a somewhat shady and maybe a little too guarded manner (no pun intended), but it just occurred to me this might be because he's an innocent with a secret role... ? Let's not repeat the mistake we made with Kit!

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Now maybe I'm just too stupid to really get what the case against him actually is, maybe I also want to think too complicated, but it just looks way too much like Zil has been set up as toDay's target by the wolves, as Legate was yesterDay, if in a different way; and I'm quite determined not to be part of the wagon this time./B]!

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting now.

Inziladun will die. There is a three-way tie in guarding between Shasta, Nerwen and Pitchwife- I will roll a die. alona will be modfired in the Night.


Update: The die has decided that Pitchwife will be saved.

[wilwarin538]

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Following that logic, the ones that look the worst to me are Nerwen (2nd to vote Zil), Wilwa (4th) and Brinn (5th). Nilp, the 1st, looks slightly less so, since I have a hard time imagining a wolf voting for his fellow twice in a row. Nienna looks maybe the best of the Zil voters based on the order in which they voted. She was the third to vote him, at a time when he had two votes and Brinn had one, putting Zil in a clear lead.

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hmmm. I've been wondering about him as well. It would seem somehow too easy, with his defence of Inziladun yesterDay and all that, but then, Wilwa and Sally are about the easiest suspects you could have, and his arguments were hasty-looking as if he was desperately trying to make a case against somebody.

He looks too obviously wolfish to be real, almost, but that could be on purpose. It's happened before... I don't know.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

It would make sense if the wolves wanted him guarded so they were free to kill contributing players (another black mark against Sally). I wonder what went wrong?

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa at #487.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

As I said to Greenie– that's not more suspicious. It just doesn't prove he's innocent. Besides, it was the same wolf each time, and others suspected him on Day 2. (See my guard -vote.)

I'm not saying Nilp can't be a wolf, understand– but we need to do something about this bad-votes-are-good-and-good-votes-are-bad meme. It's getting out of hand.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Agreed on that one.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

a list to stay organised:

Suspicious
Boro: he may disprove of this suspicion but I still have it, he just makes me uneasy
McCaber: the one random post today is kinda weird, and just him seeming to be under the radar all the time is weird
Hakon: well, I think it's been said numerous times, his gut feelings and overall illogical reasoning

Innocentish
Nerwen: still feel good about her
Nienna: fine with
Brinn: comfortable
Pitch: actually really good with him now
Greenie: liking alot
Nilp: feel pretty good about him

Unsure
Nessa: nothing
Nogrod: I don't find anything he's done really suspicious, but just because of the single Night kill he's going into this category for a while
Shasta: hopefully he shows up today

x'ed with nog and greenie

I didn't even make your list.



Anyway, I thought I was caught up but there's 13 pages instead of 12 so I obviously skipped. *blushes* I'll go read that now but wanted to let you know it might be a quiet Day for me. My internet's been acting up off and on so I don't know if I'll be here.

Also, a quick explanation of my guard vote yesterDay, as I wasn't able to give one at the time. First, can I kick myself for tying things up further? *headdesks* I had no idea what the votes were, unfortunately, but I thought Shasta was a good choice because, to me, he was a good person to keep around if innocent and also a good person to block from Night activity because I suspected him a little bit. Kind of a best of both worlds thing, which now is an irrelevant argument because Dun is dead (yay, by the way, and nice job to you all) but that's what was going through my head at the time.

Oh, and a completely crack theory. Is it possible that we blocked the only wolf who had time to get on the Downs last Night? I say this because I know some people have been busy/quiet and if Pitchie was the only one who could get on the Downs but he was blocked that could explain the lack of Night kill. (I'm not saying I believe this, but it is a possibility. Heck if I know.)

Now, off to have some ketchup. Yum.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I didn't even make your list.

Whoops. I had meant to put you under UNSURE.

[satansaloser2005]

Okie dokie, I'm caught up, and shall now try (again) to analyze some peoples. YesterDay I had an analysis of Shasta and Cabbie and someone else but it got eaten when my computer crashed, alas. I might do Cabbie again (honestly, I hadn't finished him at the time so I'd still like to gather my thoughts there) and then see how things look from there.



EDIT: x'd with Wilwa. Ah, lovely then.

EDIT 2: First I'm gonna do a vote count though. So there.
EDIT 3: By vote count I mean vote tally. Other people have done one but I've my own system, doncha know.
EDIT 4: Just to say I'm done editing this bloody post.