T-I-G LXVII: The Rangers of the North - The Fell Winter

[Kath]

Mac was killed by the wolves. I must say I found this surprising. When Rikae had to drop out and Mac joined in her place I had sort of assumed that he must have some kind of role as otherwise Rikae would have just dropped out and left the game with fewer people. Because she felt it important to make sure someone took over, I just figured it meant she was something. Given the number of Hunters in this game it surprised me the wolves didn’t leave Mac be in case he was one.

Roa – look at those who defended Rune and voted Hakon as the wolves may have tried to help Rune make Captain. With three other wolves I think there are almost too many options though. Yes one might have defended Rune, but one might have been outright against him and one might have given a staunch defense of someone else and ignored Rune … it’s as good a place to start as any I just don’t think it will give you any very definitive answers. I do agree about having a new captain each Day. If the Captain is a wolf we definitely don’t want them having extra power, and even if they’re innocent there’s nothing to say that bad decisions wouldn’t be made. Analyses Boro. Good work, but I felt that Boro was being his typical ‘it’s Day 1, let’s play!’ self and so bits of poor reasoning or seemingly random actions were actually just that. He wasn’t trying yet. Analyses Legate – pretty much comes to the conclusion that he is suspicious. On reading through I can see many of her points. The seeming flip-flop on whether a captain should be allowed to gain more power or not. The going round in circles of reasoning (that’s why I always find Nog suspicious!). What she says about his dealings with Rune are interesting too. I would want to look at Legate again myself though rather than base any opinion on another’s analysis. That said I don’t feel Roa was twisting anything to her point. When she saw a reasonable point she allowed it to remain one. Ah I see why Roa is suspicious –she think Legate is trying to retain the captaincy. Not sure about that but I can see where she’s coming from. Analyses Greenie – interesting if she really did think one way for Hakon and the other for Rune if they did the same thing, though of course a lot can depend on knowing the person. We all know Rune is a bold player. I for one don’t know Hakon at all. Defends Lommy but maybe only because Legate was suspecting her.

Valier – turned out to be the Cobbler. I can see why Fea was suspicious of her. She said the posts were ‘synthetic’ I think, and that’s about the right word. Why mention Boro? As we now know Boro was innocent it seems like she’s trying to throw suspicion at him. None of the statements really end. ‘I must also say that I was quite surprised at Rune being a wolf.’ … because? Interesting that the Cobbler would want a powerful captain. I suppose whether wolf or innocent the captain could potentially cause chaos, always interesting to a cobbler.

Fea – suspects Valier. Votes Roa for speaking sense. Given that I agree about the captain issue I can understand this. I have just realised what I’ve just written about captains exactly echo’s what Fea said. Says she didn’t trust Legate but is now feeling better about him – I found the same thing. Very non committal. Says nice things about Nienna.

Legate – did no one else wonder about Mac’s role before he died? Legate seems to assume that Mac was a trailless kill, or perhaps had Ranger hinted (I think that’s what he’s getting at). On the side of actually letting a Captain have some powers. I can see the interest in seeing how the role would work but I think it’s too dangerous. Defends his reasoning. I can see his point, yes whatever a captain did s/he would have to answer for it the next Day, the trouble is that by that Day the damage would already have been done. Fairly sound defence here. Wants to look at Lottie and Valier as they voted Rune for captain. Starts to get a bit cross. A little early to be getting so defensive but he is a major figure right now so most people are focusing on him. Suspects Lommy for not flip flopping enough and being worried about him .Also seems too confident about Hakon being innocent. Takes himself out of the running for captain by voting Nienna.

Nienna – confused by Fea’s vote as she wants either to stick with a captain or not have one. I think it would be a shame to just not have one, having more people being voted for and a role that much of the discussion centres round has really opened things up I feel. But I still wouldn’t want to keep a captain long enough to give them that much power. Defends (ish) Legate and suspects Fea. Same point as me about doing own analysis not relying on someone elses. Analyses Nerwen (why?) and concludes she seems innocent. Thinks only an innocent should be captain and as she thinks Legate is the person she sees as most innocent he should stay captain. Fair reasoning, I just worry about the power. Thinks Valier and Lottie suspicious – again like everyone else I think. Thinks Valier bandwaggoned and has no substance.

Lottie – a list post but with nothing behind it. Voted Rune for captain because he seemed confident. I think that’s fairly good reasoning actually. If you’re going to have a captain who has the power to break ties etc you do want someone who will be involved and around at the deadline and who won’t waste the chance.

Sally – thinks Brinn is a wolf, just a feeling. Thinks Rune might have been trying to frame Valier so doesn’t want to vote for her. Also some suspicion of Lottie but again doesn’t want to lynch her because she’s new. Asks to be talked with. Interesting but I did talk with her and she came across as very innocent.

Nerwen – round in circles about how the wolves might be acting. Lists the votes to look for connections. Doesn’t really seem to go anywhere with that. By the way Nerwen, I did vote on Day 1. Analyses Mac and ends up thinking that it actually wasn’t a trailless kill but might be being used to try and push suspicion on people. I think it a little odd that she wanted to get a new lynch candidate in.

Brinn – now this wolf kill I do think was simply a trailless one. (Sorry, jumping to the next Day here a bit.) With the knowledge that she wouldn’t be around much I think it was an easy and somewhat mean kill. Said she would have suspected Rune the Day before, maybe but then it’s always easier to say that in hindsight. Thinks Lottie is a little suspicious but wants to leave her as she’s a newbie. Fair enough. Thinks Valier would not have communicated so much with Rune if also a wolf so won’t vote her. Votes Nerwen due to bad vibes. Not great reasoning but she was playing catch up.

Gwath – complains about people putting in lists to supplement their post count. Might have been a dig at Nerwen. Actually says what I’d have been thinking if around that Day, why not lynch Boro anyway and only lose one person rather than two. But then no one really knew what was going on with that anyway.

Lommy – I think there’s a little dig at Roa there. Thinks Legate is being too careful. On this occasion I disagree. Day 1 I didn’t like his playing style, but having read through his Day 2 posts I feel that they’re actually reasonable and well made points. Good reasons from Lommy for not wanting him to remain captain though. Again this assumption that Mac was a no trace kill. Thinks Valier suspicious. Says she may vote Roa for captain but worries that once she is captain no one will want her to stop being captain. Interesting idea actually, especially as there is a little contingent that would like to see a stable captain. Interesting use of the night guard role. Lottie and Valier suspicious, same reasons as most others.

Greenie – takes Legate’s reasoning for her own about walking the line on Rune. I mean fair enough, yes you could want someone to just be in the village without wanting them to be captain. Odd. Says she’d be fine with keeping Legate as captain but also says that she’s not convinced about seeing a captain with full powers. Yet surely if Legate stayed captain that Day he’d have ended up with full powers? Still doesn’t actually answer about that even when asked directly. Bit worried about Lottie. Thinks she personally wouldn’t have found Valier suspicious but thanks to everyone else now does. Worried about Roa and Lommy.

Captain:
Fea – Roa
Brinn – Roa
Lommy – Roa
Nienna – Legate
Sally – Nienna
Roa – Lommy
Nerwen - Nienna
Greenie – Nienna
Valier – Legate
Legate - Nienna

Night guard:
Brinn – Kath
Lommy – Nerwen
Fea – Lommy
Sally – Kath
Nienna – Nerwen
Roa - Gwath
Nerwen - sally
Valier – Lommy
Greenie – Kath
Legate – Nerwen
Gwath - Lommy

Lynch:
Brinn – Nerwen
Lommy – Valier
Roa – Legate
Nienna – Valier
Nerwen - Lottie
Valier – Lottie
Sally – Lottie
Greenie – Valier

Right, off to get some food now. Will return and have a (quick!) look at toDay and then vote and go!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

By the way Nerwen, I did vote on Day 1

Sorry, I must have missed it. Who did you vote for?

Originally Posted by Kath

I think it a little odd that she wanted to get a new lynch candidate in.

I brought up Loslote, if that's what you mean, because I thought either she or Valier could be evil, and because I didn't want the voting to end up as a single bandwagon. What's wrong with that?

EDIT:X'd with Kath.

[Nienna]

Sally: What think you about Kath?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm back much sooner than expected.

But tomorrow's my mama's birthday and my present for her isn't done (er... isn't started) so my afternoon's booked, since I don't want to work on it when she's here to see.

So I'll check in, but don't expect too much activity.

[satansaloser2005]

Nienna: I think she's okay. In fact....


++Kath for Captain

I won't complain if Nienna stays in, but if not her I think Kath would be okay too.

++Guard Nienna



I also think I'm going to lunch. Back later, and I'll tell you some stuffs about Lottie.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I also think I'm going to lunch. Back later, and I'll tell you some stuffs about Lottie.

Hurry up, I'm curious.

[Gwathagor]

No one here? Guess I'll go read what Roa said about Legate since I missed that day.

[Oh, crossed with Nienna]

[Nienna]

Roa: Day One

3. Starts the game on a productive note; asks people if they don’t want to be captain or NG
12. Wonders where the village is
22. Asks Rune why he wants to be captain; she has no logistical problem with being captain – I agree with Legate on this post… it seems almost like she set herself up to then answer the question
23. Finds Rune suspicious because he seems so eager
28. Is confused by Boro’s use of quotes
41. Asks Boro what other motive Fea could have for adding “nothing more complicated than that” to her retraction post where she used Boro to vote and retract. This seems like it could be a subtle defense of a packmate
55.

Originally Posted by Roa

A wolf could always try bluffing. And seeing as there are four wolves, they can try out more than one strategy to get one of themselves picked. I, for one, don’t believe that people who want power should have it. But a wolf could always be subtle: “Sure, you could vote for me, if you want… not that I care, or anything…”

This is eerily similar to what actually happened... like it could be a coincidence but it sounds like insider knowledge; comments about Boro’s behavior; says he didn’t really answer her and asks again
56. Another where is everyone post
60. Asks me a bunch of questions like who I suspect, etc.
62. Is probably going to vote someone who isn’t here for captain so that they can’t do any damage – I don’t particularly like this logic; Boro’s her top suspect, comments that no one is posting
63. Might actually vote someone who isn’t around as NG as apposed to captain I think
67. Defends her suspicion of Boro
72. Says that an innocent villager would act really helpful and make a lot of sense (just like Val suggests a wolf would do to get elected captain) and she says that if we start lynching people who are helpful we wouldn’t get anywhere – This seems like a “please don’t lynch me for being a helpful wolf because I could be a helpful ordo"
75. Frustrated by lack of posts, doesn’t want to lynch Boro because he is posting, defends Fea
93. Analyzes Nerwen: I doesn’t seem like she finds her suspicious
102. Analyzes Rune: says the most suspicious thing is his ploy for captain but says it seems like it might be too obvious for a wolf. Here’s the quote:

Originally Posted by Roa

It seems really obvious, almost too obvious for a wolf ploy, but then, I’ve pulled obvious stunts as a wolf before and gotten away with it…)

… The last sentence concerns me and it seems like she is trying to feel out how others will take him before deciding that way she can go either way and say it is wolfish or too bold to be a wolf.
103. Zil: only concerned that he isn’t around
112. Fea: says her posts are fine, expects a little more from her, wonders why she isn’t being aggressive. Seems a bit noncommittal
114: Strange logic about picking someone who isn’t around as captain. She seems to think that people who aren’t around for Day wouldn’t be around for Night so it would be safe to give the captaincy to them
125. Thinks that there might be a quiet wolf hiding, asks Rune why he wants to be captain
127. Votes to guard Brinn because “if I was a wolf, I'd kill her.” – and now Brinn is dead
131. Sally: finds her strange for not expanding on any of her suspicions
133. Suspects Boro and Hakon
145. Still suspects Hakon for being weird
153. Doesn’t trust Rune enough to make him captain so votes Legate for captain
159. In a matter of 26 posts goes from not even having Rune on her suspicion list to voting to lynch him (3 hours before deadline). She even said in 133 that she likes having 3 top suspects but could only come up with Boro and Hakon.
193. Thinks captains should be changed regularly
195. Doesn’t like Lottie jumping on something Val said
201. Doesn’t want people to NG her because she is too suspicious to be killed at night
204. Gives her suspicion of Rune after voting him
253. Jumps on Boro again

Day 2 to follow depending on how much time I have

Edit: x-ed with Gwath x3

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Ha ha. Seems like it would be a waste to endow with Captain powers someone who's not likely to a) be around enough to be able to use said powers in an informed way or b) even be around at DL to put said powers to use. Right? But consider this - while it may look for all the world like Roa is trying to establish some sort of artificial, damning ties with another player (me), she may also be just trying to force me to be more involved. As you can see, it's working.

Ha, okay, if it works like that, then okay

Originally Posted by Nienna

Roa: Day One

3. Starts the game on a productive note; asks people if they don’t want to be captain or NG

Well, actually... that was one thing that I praised on first sight, but later it was one of the things which made me worried about Roa. Because again, this thing has two edges, whereas they may not be so apparent on first sight. The reason why I didn't mention it earlier is first what I already said (I didn't want to pull out the case against Roa very early in case she was innocent and the Wolves tried to frame her), and second that I am not sure if the thing I assumed it might mean worked out. The explanation of what is "the thing I assumed it meant", i.e. what I thought Roa's question might have been misused for, will follow.

To quote it precisely, in her very first post, the first post of the Day, the very first post on the thread, Roa said:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Alright, there is no doubt that this is a very complicated game with a lot of ways to die. So, let's get the most complicated thing out the way first- captain. Is there anyone who for any reason does NOT want to be captain (either for RL reasons, not comfortable with the role, etc.)? At least that will narrow down the options while we pick each other apart with angry paranoia.

Later, Hakon mentioned that we should take care not to vote Gifted for a Captain. It took quite a long while before somebody pointed it out, but it was a very, very serious point which made me aware of it - of course we should not be voting for a Gifted, as he won't be able to perform his Nightly tasks as a Captain. Understandable, is it? Well, but what does that mean? What can the thing Roa asked actually be used for?

Well, I think you already know the answer: for revealing Gifteds! Because: if what I said above is true (i.e. that Gifteds would not like to be chosen as Captain), then if you ask a Gifted whether he wants to be a Captain, the answer would be rather "no". And that means that you could theoretically determine who the Gifteds are based on what people have answered. And as a Wolf, you could then adapt the easy technique "let's kill everybody who answered 'no' and thus way we wipe out all the Gifteds".

Of course it is just theoretical model. It depends on many things, nobody says a Gifted could not answer "yes" genuinely, or be aware of the danger of being exposed and rather say "yes" even though he doesn't want to, but it's something which the Wolves might give a shot, just to see if perchance they can succeed in exposing somebody. Also, if ordos unisono reply "yes, no problem" and don't realise what this answer could mean - because they are not bothered by the idea as much as Gifteds could be and wouldn't necessarily think about the danger hidden in that - then they basically open the space for the Wolves to see, as they throw the Gifteds into a situation where the Gifted thinks "ok, everybody answered 'yes' with no hesitation, I would have preferred to avoid this topic, but now everybody answered and I need to answer, or I would stand out and be noticed, but I need to lie, or I would be noticed" or something like that.

So all in all, this is really one of the things that made me worried about Roa . I am also unsure whether she would have asked the question she asked had she been innocent, I think she's clever and she would have realised what it could be misused for.

EDIT: x-ed with three Gwaths

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But I'm not, in fact, entirely convinced a wolf would want to be a Captain. Maybe they wouldn't mind the tie-breaking normally, but when it comes to breaking a tie between a fellow and an innocent? Either decision can be dangerous. And would they want to manipulate innocents in Nightly discussions or would they dread the extra chance to get caught? I think it's more about individual wolves (and incidentally, I would see Roa and Legate as wolves wanting to be Captains, whereas I wouldn't want to be one - not because of the tie-thing, I can do that, but because I would not want innocents questioning me during the Night-time...).

Here's my take: the wolves don't need to get one of their number into the Captain at the beginning of the game, since the innocents are more than likely to kill each other anyway - but as the game progresses, it will become more and more important for the wolves to have that lynch-canceling, tie-breaking power of a Captain. Maybe it's not a problem now, but it certainly will be in a Day or two. We'll have to be extra careful who we elect.

Sorry I've been gone so much.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just a note. Even if you were innocent, I think this is a rather unclever way of thinking. If you are afraid of having a Cap in power for too long, is putting totally random people into power any better? And okay, nothing against Gwath, but he certainly hasn't been around the most, and I didn't notice that you would have expressed any strong feeling of his innocentishness in order to make you vote him. (And if it's a bait for us to start suspecting Gwath after you are lynched and revealed as a Wolf, then I am not going to take it, at least. But let's see.)

Ha ha. Seems like it would be a waste to endow with Captain powers someone who's not likely to a) be around enough to be able to use said powers in an informed way or b) even be around at DL to put said powers to use. Right? But consider this - while it may look for all the world like Roa is trying to establish some sort of artificial, damning ties with another player (me), she may also be just trying to force me to be more involved. As you can see, it's working.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Here's my take: the wolves don't need to get one of their number into the Captain at the beginning of the game, since the innocents are more than likely to kill each other anyway - but as the game progresses, it will become more and more important for the wolves to have that lynch-canceling, tie-breaking power of a Captain. Maybe it's not a problem now, but it certainly will be in a Day or two. We'll have to be extra careful who we elect.

Hey, now that was a really, really good point and well said - so I think enough to excuse you for being away for long otherwise. (That doesn't mean, though, that I'd be encouraging you in being away ) Anyway, that's just what I thought of at this moment - it's not a problem yet, but definitely for the future, let's say in a Day or two, I would be against having Captain for more than one Day. Now before everybody of the "no power for Captains" party starts shouting "We were telling you from the very beginning!", I emphasise that it goes for the late Days, when a lynch-cancelling power in an innocent's hands would be more powerful than ever, but in Wolf's hands even more disasterous than ever. With many people in the village, the Wolves will yet, I believe, not dare to misuse the lynch-cancel in any drastic way. Because if they did, they would need to explain themselves and may end up lynched themselves. But in the end, there might as well remain nobody to perform the justice on them. Thus, if our numbers thin in the future, then I am against multiple Captain Days.

And maybe even... once the Captain loses the power to communicate with his Nightly mates (not sure when this occurs, maybe it's only with some really low number of players, but anyway), maybe from that point on it would be the best to have no Captain at all. (But certainly not as long as he still can elect his BG! That is a VERY strong means to protect fellow villagers.)

EDIT: x-ed since the post I quoted

[Gwathagor]

Continuing with this theoretical train of thought, eventually it might even be best to elect no Captain at all unless they are practically a known innocent. Theoretically.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Continuing with this theoretical train of thought, eventually it might even be best to elect no Captain at all unless they are practically a known innocent. Theoretically.

Oh sorry Legate, you already said this.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And maybe even... once the Captain loses the power to communicate with his Nightly mates (not sure when this occurs, maybe it's only with some really low number of players, but anyway), maybe from that point on it would be the best to have no Captain at all.

Originally Posted by the Rules about the Captaincy

He will appoint to him two bodyguards (with 18-13 villagers, with 12-7 he chooses one and with 6 or less there are no BG’s anymore)

So with 6 players left there will be no BG's, nor NG's to that matter, and the Captain will stay up the Nights alone... vulnerable to attacks as anyone else.