Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Inziladun]

Thanks, Pitch. Useful to at least have a known innocent around.
If the wolves are going to play the game of leaving around all the various claimants to confuse us, I think it's time to take sides now, and vote for the Priest claimant we think most suspicious. I know: we don't want to lynch a gifted. But in this case, even if we were that unfortunate we'd be led to a likely wolf. Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.
Wilwa has made an appearance already. I wonder what Hakon has to say toDay.

x'd with Loslote, who is right. She's still not off the hook.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Kill our ranger, leave our seer wide open to attack on a 50/50? When we have 2 wolves in a village of 14? The situation isn't that dire. We don't need to risk it yet. Day 4 may be different depending on how the lynch goes, but I don't think it's worth the risk at this moment. I personally have no idea about the priests. I'm not going to vote for one and risk leaving our seer unprotected. Not when we have overwhelming numbers on our side.

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

[Roa_Aoife]

Kitanna

Day 1

Post 1- Basic "I'm here"

Post 2- remark about the uselessness of the first posts, says Greenie managed to turn the conversation to something more substantial, legate took a wait and see attitude, remark about the loud/quiet debate, finds Wilwa's suggestion about people making noise unhelpful, is confused by Morsul's choice, like's wilwa's advice about ignore vote counts, thinks Hakon's vote is dodgy, doesn't see a reason for Loslote or Crayon's votes.

Her remarks are very general, and aside from slight suspcion towards Wilwa, doesn't really state anything concrete.

Post 3- Calls shenanigans on Brinn, Thinks that Loslote and Crayon's lack of a reason is suspicious, sees where Nienna's reaction could have been a red flag but doesn't find it suspicious, still worried by Wilwa's suggestion

She continues with suspicion of Wilwa. Why didn't Wilwa comment on this in her analysis?

Post 4- Agrees with legate that Wilwa's vote is suspicious, doesn't find Nienna's reaction suspicious, thinks that Brinn is just playing her style.

She doesn't find Nienna or Brinn suspicious, but still is suspicious of Wilwa

Post 5- response to Roa, "Apologies, I missed the "If she contributes no further"." Questions Nienna about her suspicions and vote

Post 6- Wonders slightly about Nienna based on vote, Vote Wilwa based on earlier suggestion and her vote for Hakon

So at the end of Day 1 she is strong on her suspicion of Wilwa. I still find it odd that Wilwa didn't mention this or comment on it at all.


Day 2

Post 1- Lists people mentioned by SPM (Morsul, Nogrod, Wilwa, Pitchie, Loslote, Craydon, Inzil, Larien and Nerwen), says she believes Pitch and isn't as wary as Loslote, will seriously look over the post of SPM and the people he mentioned in seriousness.

She says what basically others said in the beginning of the day.

Post 2- Review of Inzil: doesn't seem good or bad either way, Review of Lari: slightly more suspicious than Inzil, but not by much.

She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that. She seems to have dropped her suspicion of Wilwa altogether on Day 2, but again, we can't know what she would have done had she survived and been around. Did Wilwa ignore this on purpose, or was it an oversight?

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I know it's a risk, but I really think it would help us. We should be able to either lynch a wolf or be led to one within the next Day, leaving us only one wolf to deal with. I didn't expect this to be greeted with wild support, but I think we should deprive the wolves of this tool to confuse us.

It only confuses us as long as we keep discussing it. If we focus on catching the wolf in hiding, we won't be confused by the whole thing. Pitch can use her dream however she wants, including finding out the truth behind Hakon and Wilwa, or finding the other hidden wolf. But only if she's alive. Which she won't be if we bumble and kill the ranger. What if, God forbid, the last wolf is a submarine like last game? We may not figure it out until it's too late.

Edit: crossed with Legate

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Roa

Pitch can use her dream however she wants

For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

For your information, I'm the proud owner of a Y chromosome. Don't worry, it happens all the time...

What's really embarrassing is that I think I did that last game too.

[Hakon]

Let me start off by saying I am the real ranger. So far the person to really strike me as suspicious is Lostole. I think SPM knew no one would vote for her on day one that is why he did it. It makes her seem innocent and it gets her out of being suspected as a wolf. Lostole backs up Wilwa almost 100 percent in this Hakon is a wolf thing.

++Wilwa

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

[Roa_Aoife]

Hakon, we still have one wolf out in the crowd. We already know that either you or Wilwa is the wolf. Can you help find the one among the 10 people out here we have no idea about? That would be so much more useful.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Just pointing out: if you're the real Priest and truly protected me last Night, like you said you would, I most likely will be dead toMorrow and unable to tell my dream - unless the wolves go on risking to be dreamed for the sake of creating confusion. I'm curious how long they're willing to keep this up.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Time is not on our side here. There are still two wolves left, and every Day we let this issue continue to be a thorn in our side plays into the hands of the wolves. I think voting for one of the two could tell us much.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Pitchwife if neither myself nor Wilwa is lynched today then you are to pick either her or me to dream about. It does not matter which one but you must pick one of us. Your time in this game is running out. You most likely have just tonight left.

Stop it both of you. Time is maybe not on our side in general, but the situation really isn't as dire yet. Look at the player list, there is 13 or us or something. Plenty time. Plenty time. Give it a rest at least for a Day or two. Most of all, because if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. Repeat: if we lynch the Ranger, we definitely lose the Seer. I hope I do not have to repeat it for more times.

By the way, it is useful to know about Nog. Good, Pitch. (The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The more I urge you, Nog, to try to use clear thinking and not to fall into some "known innocent syndromme" of going blindly after anyone. We need your help as a known innocent, as unclouded as possible.

Heh...

Okay. I try to stay focused, but you know, when one knows his days are counted one wishes to voice every little thing he finds so as to enable others to pick on them if the main suspicions turned out wrong after one is gone himself...

But I will try to prioritise things toDay. I'll try...


Well Pitchie, picking up a nick with the word "wife" in it might be a minor factor for those confusions to arise...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm, I have just read through Inzil's posts and actually now I would reconsider him and think of him better than I initially did. Except for maybe the fact that he quoted SpM and Nogrod together on first Day to sort of point out how flawed they are => throwing an innocent and a Wolf into the same bag for eventual chances to frame in the future? But that, I think, seems highly overstretched. Also, I think it is going to be possible to get a better reading of him once we know who Hakon is. So, maybe I can let him sort of drop from the emergency positions on my suspicion ladder for now... well, let's see.

Relatedly. I said I have a good feeling about Brinn-well, I do, the only thing is that she is really a good Wolf when she is one, so I really cannot effectively tell. And really. I have the same problem with Nerwen. That's basically the same case. While I have been worried about Nerwen slightly... maybe she could be the next one I can look on.

[Roa_Aoife]

Votes for Nienna:

Wilwa- put Nienna in the running
Lari- tied Nienna with Nog
Inzil- Put Nienna into the lead
Nogrod- Put Nienna over the top


Nogrod is a known innocent. So I won't be doing (another) look at him.

Wilwa is tied up in a lovely knot- no point in wasting my time.

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Votes for Nogrod

Nienna- put Nog in the running
Loslote- put Nog in the lead
Roa- tied Nog up with Nienna

Nienna is a known innocent.

I can't analyze myself.

Loslote is probably innocent. I will put him on my list of analysis anyways.

Other votes

Hakon- Wilwa
Morsul- Hakon
Craydon- Morsul
Nerwen- Morsul
Brinn- Inzil
Legate- Inzil

Hakon- see Wilwa

Morsul- see Hakon

Craydon had to vote early and had no good candidates. His vote looks sound. There really isn't much to analyze. I think he bears watching.

Nerwen was around, and could have come up with something better. If she didn't like either Nogrod or Nienna as a suspect, then she could have come up with a third party. Her vote looks careful to me. She's next on my analysis list, especially as I never got around to her yesterDay.

Brinn's vote is interesting. I understand putting up someone else she was uncomfortable with instead of voting for someone she didn't find suspicious. The problem is that other than briefly on Day 1, she hasn't really registered with me. I am afraid of submarines, and she is striking me as a submarine.

Legate's vote has a reason behind it, and I also considered voting for Inzil. Still, I haven't paid terribly close attention to him lately.


No vote

Pitch
Kitanna


Pitch is our seer.
Kitanna is a known innocent

So, from the votes, I will analyze:
Loslote
Nerwen
Brinn
Legate

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

Edit: crossed with Legate

[Loslote]

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

*headdesks* I'll get it right.

Why Brinn?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm, so actually, I have read also through Nerwen's posts, and the outcome is - for now - rather positive still, she seems reasonable, trying to think and all that. But I am really, really, really looking forward for her to post toDay. I guess it will make me form my picture on her a lot closer, among other things, especially I am looking forward to seeing her interpretation of the Night events.

Well, otherwise I am afraid that I am falling into the "Legate who starts analysing never catches anyone" state, which I have been observing on myself many times. I think I could try to read Brinn and Lari for comparison, but Lari makes so long posts. And Brinn is a submarine, but it really seems she is busy in RL, so what can one do. Ugh, and I completely forgot that Craydon exists.

But, hm, thinking of it, if I am not mistaken, then there is only one Wolf, then, outside the Hakon-Wilwa-(Morsul) group. That means it could be basically anyone (Like, some total submarine. That's how I came to think of it now.)

EDIT: x-ed since Roa's long post

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

I actually meant both an analysis of me and checking my analysis of other people. Since I know you won't be trying to disprove my points for nefarious reasons, you can check my work and tell me if I'm being overly paranoid or (less likely) overly nice.

Edit: crossed. Sorry Legate, I didn't see your Edit

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Sorry for signing your death warrant, Nog - but if the wolves decide first to go for the gifted after all, that should give you another Day or two, and if they kill you first, they have to take the risk that I'll expose another of them.

No problem there Pitchie. It was a good idea to reveal your knowledge. As it happens I have some time in my hands toDay and as a known innocent (so far as you will be trusted) I can try to be as open as possible as I don't have to be afraid of my own neck toDay. And that is good.

Also it will be interesting to see what the wolves will decide the next Night...


Seeing the last posts, well you Roa took the words out of my desktop... a dream on either wilwa or Hakon is basically a dream wasted. If we just remember to take care of that duo in time that is.

But that time is not toDay as the next Night will still be crucial: the real ranger may have a chance to protect the seer. So let's not risk lynching the ranger to give the wolves free rein on the coming Night.

Sorry wilwa / Hakon if this sounds rude... but in the end we're fairly certain one of you is a wolf and from the village standpoint we need to lynch the wolf. So the real ranger will face the danger of being lynched but we shouldn't waste the dream on you as it is 50-50. With everyone else the odds are a lot weaker.

So Inzil also, let's not be hasty.


Okay. I'll go back into the thread to make some basic-research.

If there is any issue you people would like to hear a good-willed thoughts on let me know. But for the first thing I'm going to scroll through the thread, check the votings (times and reasons) + look a bit on Inzil (eyeing what Hakon and wilwa have said on him & spm as well).

It may take some time knowing my slow speed in doing this kinds of things, but I will refresh this page as well every now and then to see what goes on.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts...