Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 01:14 PM

Votes for Nienna:

Wilwa- put Nienna in the running
Lari- tied Nienna with Nog
Inzil- Put Nienna into the lead
Nogrod- Put Nienna over the top

Nogrod is a known innocent. So I won't be doing (another) look at him.

Wilwa is tied up in a lovely knot- no point in wasting my time.

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Votes for Nogrod

Nienna- put Nog in the running
Loslote- put Nog in the lead
Roa- tied Nog up with Nienna

Nienna is a known innocent.

I can't analyze myself.

Loslote is probably innocent. I will put him on my list of analysis anyways.

Other votes

Hakon- Wilwa
Morsul- Hakon
Craydon- Morsul
Nerwen- Morsul
Brinn- Inzil
Legate- Inzil

Hakon- see Wilwa

Morsul- see Hakon

Craydon had to vote early and had no good candidates. His vote looks sound. There really isn't much to analyze. I think he bears watching.

Nerwen was around, and could have come up with something better. If she didn't like either Nogrod or Nienna as a suspect, then she could have come up with a third party. Her vote looks careful to me. She's next on my analysis list, especially as I never got around to her yesterDay.

Brinn's vote is interesting. I understand putting up someone else she was uncomfortable with instead of voting for someone she didn't find suspicious. The problem is that other than briefly on Day 1, she hasn't really registered with me. I am afraid of submarines, and she is striking me as a submarine.

Legate's vote has a reason behind it, and I also considered voting for Inzil. Still, I haven't paid terribly close attention to him lately.

No vote

Pitch
Kitanna

Pitch is our seer.
Kitanna is a known innocent

So, from the votes, I will analyze:
Loslote
Nerwen
Brinn
Legate

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

Edit: crossed with Legate

Loslote · 10-17-2009, 01:28 PM

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loslote

Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so...

And if we're correcting genders, I'm female.

*headdesks* I'll get it right.

Why Brinn?

Legate of Amon Lanc · 10-17-2009, 01:32 PM

Hmm, so actually, I have read also through Nerwen's posts, and the outcome is - for now - rather positive still, she seems reasonable, trying to think and all that. But I am really, really, really looking forward for her to post toDay. I guess it will make me form my picture on her a lot closer, among other things, especially I am looking forward to seeing her interpretation of the Night events.

Well, otherwise I am afraid that I am falling into the "Legate who starts analysing never catches anyone" state, which I have been observing on myself many times. I think I could try to read Brinn and Lari for comparison, but Lari makes so long posts. And Brinn is a submarine, but it really seems she is busy in RL, so what can one do. Ugh, and I completely forgot that Craydon exists.

But, hm, thinking of it, if I am not mistaken, then there is only one Wolf, then, outside the Hakon-Wilwa-(Morsul) group. That means it could be basically anyone

(Like, some total submarine. That's how I came to think of it now.)

EDIT: x-ed since Roa's long post

Nogrod · 10-17-2009, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work.

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'll try to do that later in the Day (tomorrow RL). But your vote for Spm before Pitchie's revealment makes you look quite good for the time being anyway (I actually didn't notice that fact yesterDay as I didn't have time to go through all the posts from the end of Day1 and thought it not such a problem as there was that revealment bandwagon).

But I'll try it later. Now back to Day2...

I actually meant both an analysis of me and checking my analysis of other people. Since I know you won't be trying to disprove my points for nefarious reasons, you can check my work and tell me if I'm being overly paranoid or (less likely) overly nice.

Edit: crossed. Sorry Legate, I didn't see your Edit

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 02:36 PM

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself?

Roa_Aoife · 10-17-2009, 02:38 PM

I have a prior engagement to get to. I'll be back on in a few hours to do an analysis of Nerwen.

Nogrod · 10-17-2009, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf.

That's not too far fetched a scenario... looking at the numbers; if the real loudmouths would be killed one by one the last remaining one would feel quite lonely and might reach a premature lynching for it. Or maybe they are acting just for sportiness (as I would)?

But it's also possible the wolves wish the loudmouths to tear each other apart - as has happened quite a many times...

Legate of Amon Lanc · 10-17-2009, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself?

In a way, that would be quite good at least from the point of view that it won't be any submarine who would escape us. Though, what exactly do you call "loud". Okay, by this logic, next person killed should be Brinn or something like that.

Anyway, I think the Wolves this far, in either case, had probably good reasons to kill the quiet players, especially last Night, simply to keep the village in the dark as much as possible. Of course, the choice they made could also have been totally random.

Personally, this tactic goes well together to me with the image that one of the Wolves is Hakon or wilwa (maybe wilwa a bit more than Hakon in this case): they both are the kind of people whom I could imagine killing tracelessly. The remaining Wolf then could be people like Brinn, Nerwen, even maybe Lari... I don't think it fits for example Roa. By the way, one reason why I do not suspect Roa that much is also that I would expect her to kill Nog at Night or something. Although thinking of that, I do not really recall what kind of people she tends to kill as a Wolf, but at least this would sound logical to me.

EDIT: x-ed with the beginning of the page

10-17-2009, 01:14 PM	#1
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	Votes for Nienna: Wilwa- put Nienna in the running Lari- tied Nienna with Nog Inzil- Put Nienna into the lead Nogrod- Put Nienna over the top Nogrod is a known innocent. So I won't be doing (another) look at him. Wilwa is tied up in a lovely knot- no point in wasting my time. Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one. Votes for Nogrod Nienna- put Nog in the running Loslote- put Nog in the lead Roa- tied Nog up with Nienna Nienna is a known innocent. I can't analyze myself. Loslote is probably innocent. I will put him on my list of analysis anyways. Other votes Hakon- Wilwa Morsul- Hakon Craydon- Morsul Nerwen- Morsul Brinn- Inzil Legate- Inzil Hakon- see Wilwa Morsul- see Hakon Craydon had to vote early and had no good candidates. His vote looks sound. There really isn't much to analyze. I think he bears watching. Nerwen was around, and could have come up with something better. If she didn't like either Nogrod or Nienna as a suspect, then she could have come up with a third party. Her vote looks careful to me. She's next on my analysis list, especially as I never got around to her yesterDay. Brinn's vote is interesting. I understand putting up someone else she was uncomfortable with instead of voting for someone she didn't find suspicious. The problem is that other than briefly on Day 1, she hasn't really registered with me. I am afraid of submarines, and she is striking me as a submarine. Legate's vote has a reason behind it, and I also considered voting for Inzil. Still, I haven't paid terribly close attention to him lately. No vote Pitch Kitanna Pitch is our seer. Kitanna is a known innocent So, from the votes, I will analyze: Loslote Nerwen Brinn Legate Nogrod, the discerning eye of a known innocent is something I would value in checking my work. Edit: crossed with Legate __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

10-17-2009, 01:28 PM	#2
Loslote The Werewolf's Companion Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: The Moon Posts: 3,021	Brinn worries me. I'm guessing she's the second wolf, now that Nogrod is clear. I would go for Hakon as the other wolf, but he's tangled in that nasty Ranger business, so... And if we're correcting genders, I'm female. __________________ I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris

10-17-2009, 01:32 PM	#4
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	Hmm, so actually, I have read also through Nerwen's posts, and the outcome is - for now - rather positive still, she seems reasonable, trying to think and all that. But I am really, really, really looking forward for her to post toDay. I guess it will make me form my picture on her a lot closer, among other things, especially I am looking forward to seeing her interpretation of the Night events. Well, otherwise I am afraid that I am falling into the "Legate who starts analysing never catches anyone" state, which I have been observing on myself many times. I think I could try to read Brinn and Lari for comparison, but Lari makes so long posts. And Brinn is a submarine, but it really seems she is busy in RL, so what can one do. Ugh, and I completely forgot that Craydon exists. But, hm, thinking of it, if I am not mistaken, then there is only one Wolf, then, outside the Hakon-Wilwa-(Morsul) group. That means it could be basically anyone (Like, some total submarine. That's how I came to think of it now.) EDIT: x-ed since Roa's long post __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories

10-17-2009, 02:36 PM	#7
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	It does seem like the quiet players are being killed off. Greenie, then Kitanna... both very quiet and not suspected by anyone. That would point to a louder player as the last wolf. SPM was also keen to focus on the quiet ones, and we know his reasons to be nefarious. But was he diverting attention away from more than just himself? __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen

10-17-2009, 02:38 PM	#8
Roa_Aoife Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Someday, I'll rule all of it. Posts: 1,696	I have a prior engagement to get to. I'll be back on in a few hours to do an analysis of Nerwen. __________________ We can't all be Roas* when it comes to analysing...* -Lommy I didn't say you're evil, Roa, I said you're exasperating. -Nerwen