TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Roa_Aoife]

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Fea is probably either the cobbler, or a wolf pretending to be the cobbler.

edit: crossed with pitch and Fea. Good, hopefully we'll get some sense out of you now.

[Roa_Aoife]

Oh, and that was an analysis of Bearomir's posts. Sorry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Of course it's cute!

[A Little Green]

++ Sally

I said in my previous post why I don't want to vote Nog toDay. I want to go for a submarine. I ended up on Sally because she is maybe the most evil-looking of the submarines. Decide wisely, I'm off to bed.

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't know if I like Greenie's vote for Sally. She's been on Nogrod for a while, but then votes Sally as an "evil-looking submarine" without explaining why she thinks Sally looks evil. Sally's also a very easy vote, because a lot of people are suggesting she's a wolf because of her vote for Hakon.

[satansaloser2005]

*glances up, blinks*

Love Fea (or at least her Poe-try) think Saucie might be okay and am worried about Roa and possibly Nog. Pitch seems evil to me and Greenie just voted me for no reason, but people do that a lot so I'll leave it alone for now.

Just some thoughts. Sorry, but I ended up being a lot busier (and a lot sicker) than I intended today. I did warn you I'd be a submarine....


(In other news, I'll read through everything again when I get off work and offer commentary where I see fit/can manage. Then I'll go from there.)


EDIT: x'd with Nog and the Telltale Fea. I bloody love you.

[Pitchwife]

Now I wonder if Greenie and Nogrod are wolves together planning on using their usual tit-for-tat as a cover, and if one of them gets lynched, it makes the other look better.

I was about to ask whether Greenie would keep it up so consistently toDay in this case, but just noticed she's 1. backed off Nog for now and 2. adopted his principle of submarine hunting instead. The reason she gives for 1. sounds reasonable (not wanting to stick to Day 1 suspicions too much) - although, if she had good reasons to suspect him which haven't been invalidated since, why not stick with them? As for 2., I obviously can't find any fault with that, nor with her choice among the subs. (Yes, I remember I voted Boro because he claimed to find sally most suspicious of the subs. I still think neither her early morning jokes nor her vote would be highly suspicious as such, it's both together that worries me. And I'm not saying she's the most suspicious now, but one of four possible candidates.)

[Nogrod]

Do you want to see my "I don't like..." list?

Well, wish it or not, here it comes.

I don't like the way Greenie plays on D1 nor on D2. That vote for me felt just malice-driven then. She knows how I play but didn't give any good explanation for her vote; toDay she continued repeating some off-the-mark things on me and said she would like to make a few questions on me to judge me better (which she never did, so trying to look good only?) - but she didn't make a single notice on what I answered her (and others) on those initial suggestions. On the contrary she acted like I had said nothing to answer her doubts and only dismissed voting me on the grounds that it's not too good to stick with D1 suspicions only. And I can see a scenario where she didn't want to vote me again for the reason that I might actully focus my attention to her this time for good - and now with some reasons backing my possible vote which some others might follow.

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate. The poems and the "novellettes" are fine and entertaining but the substance is greatly lacking. I might vote her just for the frustration, but her vote yesterDay was actually quite suspicious. Many of you have said you wouldn't "put it past Fea" to make such an openly gay nailing vote on an innocent. I would say I would be surprised if she would have handled the situation differently were she a wolf...

I don't like the ever larger compartment of submarines we have around. Whatever Sally's role is, her last post is indicative of the situation... She managed to mention a handful of people: one who stood out because of poetry, another because of voting for her and four because they have been the most vocal... So there the submarines will keep diving under any radar...

I don't like some bandwagonish / easy-going votes from yesterDay and the subsequent silence toDay, mainly Lottie, Sally and Lari...

I don't like McCaber's calculative submarine-approach.

[Roa_Aoife]

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Right now, I am seriously considering voting for Fea. My other choice at the moment is Greenie. Her comment about me and Nogrod was forced, and her vote for Sally is too easy, and lacking in any actual reasons.

[Nogrod]

To supply you with my "I'm uneasy with..." list as well.

I'm uneasy with Roa who behaves too civilly towards me. Her explanation on her "Borolysis" made sense but I'd presume she would be able to come up with one if forced to do it...

I'm uneasy with Spm as I see him grasping at straws at times and being so very reasonable at others (and I mean it - he can be very reasonable & reasoned indeed). Also his change of style is remarkable: from the early game (and I don't mean only the "banter phase") confusion-monger and wannabe-contactor he has turned back into a decent and reasonable player; after he was suspected of being the cobbler by enough many players and as the bear died. Although I'm not sure he is a wolf, but a cobbler maybe? (I have still not forgotten that possible Greenie - Spm link possibility which they have nicely turned into a chatter toDay)

I'm uneasy with Pitchie because he seems soo reasonable and uncontroversial. You have just enough initiative that no one can say you just follow others but you are also very careful not to arouse any suspicion.

I'm uneasy with Brinn and wilwa, both of whom I know can be real killers when needed but have been quite quiet so far.


Well, a familiar position: I distrust you all. If I'd have to name one innocentish person it would be Nerwen.

[Roa_Aoife]

Nice to see you involved, Fea.

I think the lovers haven't been discussed for an obvious reason: we don't have to kill them to win, and they really pose very little threat to us. If one of them dies, the other gets a free kill, but that's a big if. Their best bet is to play on the villages side.

So are you saying that it really doesn't matter what Boromir thought, since he was probably just a safe kill, if not killed for being the bear?

Then who do you think is suspicious?

And maybe we don't have a problem with your style, dear, but I for one resent doing all the work while you sit back and benefit from it.

[Nogrod]

Looking soo much better Fea - well not as poetical, but anyway.

Although I must say it's not too particular...

And your view of socialism is just weird.

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Greenie's stated reason for voting Nog yesterDay, other than retaliating, was 'because he makes weak reasons sound big'. Going through his early posts yesterDay (before she first said this) I could find only two points to which she may have referred, other than his suspecting her to be the Bear

I hoped I wouldn't have to come back to this anymore but it seems I have to as you brought it up once again and I'm going to sleep soon.

I think I said it yesterDay already that I had read the thread up to a point (5PM my time or something) and three people had roused my attention: Greenie, Spm and Roa - that far. Then coming home I looked at their posting with the eye of "if they were baddies how would you explain these posts"? And as you all know I ended up with the decision none was a case good enough to vote for them on D1.

If everyone did that on Day1 (really tried to look for the baddies laying points on them) the Day1's would be real opportunities to lynch a wolf instead of easy hunker-down bandwagons that seem to hit gifteds and innocents more often than the wolves (because the wolves know who to vote). It's pretty frustrating to be the only one (well, one of the few) to actually try something on D1 and get load of X from that.

Or maybe people have different standards on what makes a "big case" or a "well-reasoned suspicion"? To me those I made yesterDay were not ones of that category, but something worth mentioning as I couldn't be sure I'm alive toDay to voice those suspicions - however inconclusive they are as they are only D1 suspicions.


Okay. Needs to check the Mead Hall and process my vote in my head meanwhile...

[Pitchwife]

So, Fea, you've finally pastiched your way through the poems and tales to Heureka. I'm duly impressed. Nice analysis of the situation. Now what about applying it?

Originally Posted by Fea

My theory: as a village, we should concentrate on two groups:
1) those who appear to be working together
2) those who appear to be invisible

I think we all have an idea who falls under 2). What about 1)? Who do you think looks like they're working together?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't like the way Fea keeps herself over and above the actual debate.

Why should I interject? You're all doing a wonderful job for me. I'd just get in the way...

To summarize the thoughts de ustedes, which extrapolate on my thoughts:

Borangutan clearly thought one or both of two things: Hakon was the seer, or Hakon was an easy target because everyone was irked that he wouldn't shut his gob about meta.

The more interesting question is why the wolves picked Borangutan, and my guess is that they were thinking one or both of two things: Borangutan was Were-ape (as evidenced by Hakon's commentary), or Borangutan was an easy target.

As far as wolves would be concerned on a Night 2 kill, it doesn't really matter who dies, since everybody's got to go.

The wolves' greatest enemies would be, respectively, the Bear and the Seer. Yes, the Seer can identify, and that's bad, but the Bear can kill somebody each night, and that includes wolves. Wolves have enough worry during the day keeping their pack alive. Add to that the threat of random death at night?

And don't tell me the wolves aren't threatened by a Werebear. The Bear's greatest threat is the wolfpack. It's fairly easy to stay under the radar during the day, whereas at Night, you don't have any say in what happens to you. Yes, the Bear wants people to die at a rapid pace, but as long as one Wolf is alive, you get two kills per Night. The Bear can't win without killing the Wolves, and multiple Wolves (obviously) outnumbers one Bear. It's in the Bear's best interest to kill wolves early so that when it's down to the wire, the Bear is the only one making night kills.

That being said, the Bear is the wolves' great threat because the logical behavior of the Bear is to start sniping wolves.

Therefore if the wolves thought Hakon had found Borangutan, they'd want to kill him while they had the chance, before one of them died.

Therefore, Hakon died either because he was too damned obvious, or too damned annoying, and Boro died either because Hakon was too damned obvious, or the wolves wanted a trail-less kill. Conversation over, and since following the lead of the Seer doesn't really lead back to the wolves so much as it shows that they're paying attention, let's look to the future.

The Ranger can no longer guard two Nights in a row, and there is nobody that stands out right now in terms of needing to be guarded, since most of the 'important' players peaced out already. Without the Hunter and the Seer, the Ranger is left to protect innocents. All of whom seem just about as innocent as the wolves. So I'm viewing tonight as a crapshoot in terms of protection/killing. Odds are in the wolves' favor of getting who they want, and odds are equally in the Ranger's favor of protecting who they pick. Summarized: it's unlikely the Ranger and the Wolves will go after the same person, so most likely somebody's going to die toNight.

The Lovers have not really been discussed, which I think is an unfortunate oversight given the fact that by their very definition they don't care if the village wins, only if they win. Also, it should be born in mind that there are currently two players in constant Daily communication. The question to ask is if the Lovers have the village's best interest at heart.

And then there's the Cobbler. Who obviously doesn't have the village's best interest at heart, and could be anybody, but based on the number of people (self included) drawing the attention of the crowd, it's probably somebody playing reindeer games until they're needed.

My theory: as a village, we should concentrate on two groups:

1) those who appear to be working together

2) those who appear to be invisible

Originally Posted by Roa

I agree with you about Fea, Nogrod. She hasn't been helpful at all, and I would say she's basically not even playing.

Wrong. I'm just not playing the way you think I should be. And when you're the mod, your opinion will matter.

[McCaber]

So I did some thinking on Hakon's posts, and I managed to come up with just about what Fea said: that he dropped one too many seer hints and Boro decided to take the potential risk of suspicion there.

And as for Boro, I think he was probably just a no-trace kill.

[McCaber]

And once more I'm out of time.

++Nogrod

for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

[Roa_Aoife]

Not a huge fan of it, no. I like capitalism. (Or at least the ideal form of it.)

Ah! McCaber you startled me, jumping in and out so quickly like that. I don't see how Boro could be traceless- he had far too many opinions and suspicions for that. You would have been a no trace kill, as would have Wilwa, or Lari, or Sally, or any of the other submarines.

A no trace kill would have been very easy in this game, and it's practically SOP for wolves on Night 2. But that's not what the wolves did and I think there must be a reason for it.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Perhaps it's more accurate to say that Boro could have been a no-accurate-trail kill. You can pick a reindeer and have no trail at all ("How can we know who killed her when she only posted once, to say hello!?") or you can pick somebody knowing that there are false trails people will think they've picked up.

It's the difference between no trail and a set-up kill, but on a Night 2 when wolves don't have anything better to do? Like you said, Roa, it's practically SOP for wolves to just pick someone that doesn't mean anything.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, then, Fea, who do you suspect?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by McCaber

++Nogrod
for voting me for rather spurious reasons yesterDay.

And you think this is any better?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And you think this is any better?

I second that. Not looking good at the moment, Cab.

After snapping out of poet mode (which I did enjoy), Fea appears and starts speaking plainly.
So, your main suspects are Brinn, Lari, Lottie, Sally, and Wilwa? All have notable submarine tendancies, to be sure. Lari and Sally have stated they are ill. Then again, so is Roa apparently, and I'm actually not feeling 100% myself. So that in itself could be a factor, I guess, but I don't think we can afford to give them a pass based upon it at this point.
Lari's vote for Hakon still looks to me worse than Sally's, but both were ultra-safe, since so many had already expressed a desire to lynch him.

[Roa_Aoife]

Alright, of the Morsul voters, Fea looks more suspicious to me than Loslote. But that's iffy, either way, and now that's she's participating, I'd rather leave her for now.
I'm not so sure about the lack of trail from Boro. It seems an easy thing to claim, especially if one of your fellow wolves is being pointed at. The, "Shh, don't look here," idea looks very much like trying to divert attention. However, this is rather circumstantial.

Of the Hakon voters, I can't really call it. If I hadn't been so suspicious of SPM, I may have voted him too.

I don't like Greenie's vote- it looks very out of nowhere to me. So does McCaber's, but he hasn't been around that much and he seems pressed for time. If Greenie is afraid of being too focused on Nogrod, she ought to try to analyze someone else, not just pick a submarine seemingly at random.

Since I really have to finish this paper, I need to sign out now.

++Greenie

[Nogrod]

Oh my...

You're making my life very hard McCaber. I had been thinking about voting for Greenie, or maybe Lari or Lottie.

You really tease me... what is my reaction to your vote about: retaliation or just an even more substantial suspicion, feeling bad or feeling being right with my initial suspicions in the first place... I have been suspecting you all the time and you vote for me for voting you on "flimsy reasons" yesterDay - like Pitchie said with doing more or less the same yourself. Well not exactly: you're doing worse actually for saying my reasons to vote for you were just "flimsy", which is far less substantial than what I suspected you on yesterDay... or toDay.

And you seem to vote solely on yeasterDay's basis? What do you think of toDay? Didn't any of the things happening last Night or toDay make you reconsider?

Okay, you may not be responding and I have a bad feeling you haven't been reading the thread in the first place (shame on you if it's true).

I need to reconsider my vote for a minute...

[Pitchwife]

So Lari and sally are ill (I wasn't aware of that, explains the can't-be-bothered attitude), and wilwa has said she's busy and might even have to drop out; Zil is right we shouldn't give them the pass because of that, but I don't really like voting any of them under these circumstances, either - at least not toDay.
Of the quiet ones, Brinn has actually posted most and made the most sense, so I'd like to keep her around for now.
Between the remaining subs, Lottie and McCaber, Cab looks worse at the moment after his out-of-the-blue vote - Lottie at least made some more attempt to explain her vote yesterDay.
The rest:
SpM looks better toDay - cobbler at the very worst, but quite possibly innocent.
Roa - Greenie said she's too good to be true (which makes me wonder about her vote for Greenie), which in a way I can understand, but no furry vibes from her.
Greenie/Nog - not 100 % sure of either of them, but don't suspect either enough to vote.
Zil and Nerwen have both been very reasonable, and no furry emissions from either.
Fea - worries me. First avoids taking any tangible position, then, when pressed for suspects, names only submarines who have been suspected before. Possible candidate for a vote.
Vote to come after a little more mulling over.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Roa

First few posts are Junk, believes Mith started the first poster theory, finds Sauce's reserve "a-typical."

(SPM seems to have conveniently missed that when he reviewed Boromir's posts. But that's very slight.)

Actually, I didn't - it's in my notes. But I didn't think it worth mentioning because I thought it pretty inconsequential and in any event contrary to his other thoughts on me. I thought much the same about his comments on Inzil and one or two others. I focussed only on those things that I thought may possibly have provoked a Wolf kill. And I still disagree with you on this point. After Morsul, his main suspect was sally. With Morsul dead, he was likely to focus more on her toDay had he survived. And he explicitly stated that he was tempted to vote for Lari and that he would be looking more closely at her toDay. If anyone wanted to kill him because of something he said, then those two are the most likely in my view. But, as I said, I don't think that it's the strongest piece of evidence against either of them, quite apart from the fact that he may just have been killed because the Wolves spotted him as the Bear.

I agree that he was (contrary to McCaber's assertion) most certainly not a trailless kill. But I can see some merit in Fea's suggestion that he may have been killed because the trail was confusing or potentially misdirecting.

Originally Posted by Roa

It's not cute anymore, Fea. Nor is it helpful.

Well, I thought it cute. But I agree that it wasn't helpful. Happily, she has made rather more substantive contributions since.

Now, I hate to agree with what appears to be emerging as a concensus among the chatterati here, but I do rather agree that neither Greenie nor McCaber have done themselves any favours toDay. Greenie looks suspicious for backing away from her suspicion of Nog and for voting for sally after some suspicion had been voiced about her (including a suggestion by me that I might vote for her). And McCaber's vote for Noggie is another one of those 'out of the blue' votes that's as flimsily reasoned as he suggests Nog's vote was yeterDay. Actually, it's worse. And I am not sure that I like his suggestion that Boro was a no-track kill, when it clearly wasn't. It makes me wonder whether there might be something to look for in the trail after all.

I am still toying with the idea of voting for either Lari or sally, on the basis of yesterDay's Hakon vote. But Lari has not appeared toDay and sally has said little of consequence. So there is nothing more to go on toDay for either of them. Which may, I suppose, be a reason in itself to vote for one of them. But, if I do, which one?

Also, am I missing something or has Nerwen still not explained why she didn't vote yesterDay?

[Nogrod]

This is in hindsight to be sure, but anyway. I probably could have said this yesterDay already (actually I think I did say people voting for Hakon or Morsul are "safe-voters"), but it's so much easier now.

But it was as easy to the wolves who know who are not among them already yesterDay...

So people voting for Hakon or Morsul I think were ones that wished to stay out of the fray as they were clearly the "easy lynches": the one being annoyed by everyone with his meta-reasonings and the other of his awkwardness.

But they both have been succesful in what they do in the earlier games. It's only their way of playing that clearly makes people think they're easy to vote. As they both turned out gifteds (well, innocents anyway) I can't help feeling those who have played with them lately and being lupine now would have wished to do away with them with both of these reasons.


So Morsul was voted by:

Spm - I would have thought he would have made a smarter decision in the beginning but going on the odd one (hindsight, yes, but really Spm?). The wolves seldom are that out in the open even if Morsul had been one in the last game: you just can't make your vote based on that Spm! You should know it, so why?
Loslote - suspiciously placed vote, but less suspicious than Spm's (who still would be the cobbler I think).
Hakon - the seer but clearly one who doesn't read too much - or doesn't write out what he reads...
Boro - Bear, so out for an easy lunch? Probably so.
Fea - an artsy kill suitable to her persona. Could be whatever... I mean that is a real 50-50. It's not only "I wouldn't put it past her" but it would also be "she would do just that". The only problem is what is the motive behind what she did?


The only thing about the Hakon voters I think is worthwhile mentioning (that I think has not been noted before and might bear some wittness) is the following.

Hakon was greatly disliked on D1 - for a reason. But it is interesting that he was voted in concerto by Sally and Lari one after another - in a situation where Morsul had three votes and Spm had two.

Now are they two innocents who just looked at Morsul as being just his odd self and thought Spm innocent - and thus went on Hakon who had been disliked by many.

Or were they (one of them) thinking they could override the Spm wagon by voting Hakon who was so much disliked while believing the Morsul-wagon was too easy or not-backed by the late-voters?

As Morsul was not a wolf, the two had no reason to not let him get lynched (were they wolves / either of them being one). But picking another similar-kind of subject is an interesting choice indeed... did they (one of them) foresee Morsul was getting lynched and thus they thought it better to vote for someone else not to be involved in the bandwagon?

Or did they wish to leave open the chance Spm would be lynched - or not take part in lynching of either Morsul or Spm they both (one of them) knew was innocent?

I'm not sure I can follow my own logic anymore... or whether I should be able to put it into a more simple form...

And it's late. Voting time in a second...

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm uneasy with Brinn and wilwa, both of whom I know can be real killers when needed but have been quite quiet so far.

Well, I did say I wouldn't be able to be around a whole lot due to the stresses of RL...

More thoughts:

There seems to be a lot of rows going on toDay. Not that it's a bad thing...keeps the Day entertaining. I believe it was Roa who suggested the row between Nog and Greenie as wolf-on-wolf, which is possible since I can see someone like Nogrod pulling that off. And they'd both probably have fun with it. Then again, it's just as possible that Roa and Nogrod are wolves together for the same reasons. There's not enough evidence now to support these theories, but I do think it's a good idea to keep an eye on all interactions between players, both the arguments and buddying up.

The one thing about Roa that stuck out to me, was that she seemed rather defensive after reading Greenie's comments about her. Greenie was playing with the idea that she might be a wolf, but I'm not sure she was actually seriously considering voting her.

Iti's McCaber's vote right now that really bothers me. It's purely retaliatory, which is a horrible reason to vote anyone.

Fea is also making me very uncomfortable. She provides almost no substance until others start to comment on it. And even when she does provide substance, she avoids sharing much opinion on other players. Can you further explain exactly why you suspect me as well as the others on your list, Fea?

Loslote still hasn't shown up which is disappointing. I'm still not liking her for her vote, but I'd like to actually hear from her before pursuing her any further, so hopefully she will show up soon.

EDIT: 2600 posts, yay!