TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

So, quickly before I head out for the night (my time), it doesn't need stating but I'll say it anyways: The wolves could not have known that Greenie was the cobbler. Ergo, her lynching should be looked at as the lynching of an innocent.

No, just as that of a non-wolf. People may well have honestly found her suspicious; you can't treat voting her as guilty behaviour in itself. Cobblers aren't innocents and typically don't act innocently. And wolves usually try to avoid lynching whoever they suspect is the cobbler unless one of the pack is on the block. (Whether that was the case remains to be seen.)

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Fea- also her second time lynching an innocent. Voted Greenie to save herself. I suppose it's understandable, but I didn't at all like the way she went along with Lari's theory. It was extremely convenient for her, of course, but the flaws in it were obvious, as Nerwen pointed out. I also think her post about lynching her not helping the village sounded very wolfish. After the events of the last Day, she looks the most suspicious to me.

As I said, I don't regard voting Greenie as inherently suspicious. The other points still hold, though. (I still don't understand why Lari kept arguing about Hakon. It's possible he hadn't dreamed any of his three Bear-candidates yet, I'll grant that– but that wasn't her theory.)

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lari? I had her pegged as a likely wolf, owing to her Day 1 vote, and what I saw as an over-the-top response to the suspicions raised about her. And Greenie was the cobbler.

Indeed, why Lari? She'd practically stuck her head in the noose by the end of yesterDay. It would have been very easy to get her lynched toDay. Were they that afraid of the Ranger?

Here's an interesting point: consider that if Fea is innocent, she and Lari would have surely looked very like the Lovers to the wolves (unless it's in the rules that the Lovers are opposite sex; I couldn't see that anywhere). However, that would not be an incentive to the wolves to kill Lari, but rather the reverse. You see, in this game the Lover-rules are as follows:

Originally Posted by The Rules

If one Lover is killed, the remaining one gets a revenge kill, which must be used within three Days of their counterpart's death.

Originally Posted by The Rules

In some games the remaining Lover dies after getting their revenge kill, but we decided to let them keep playing for kicks.

So, the obvious explanation is that Lari didn't look like Fea's Lover to the wolves for the simple reason that Fea is one of them. But in that case, you'd think they'd keep Lari alive in the hope that she'd be lynched instead of Fea.

[The Saucepan Man]

Greenie -> sally (sally - 1)
McCaber -> Nogrod (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1)
Roa -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 1)
Nogrod -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2)
Pitch - > Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 2, Fea - 1)
SpM -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 1)
Inzil -> Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2)
Loslote -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 3, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1)
Fea -> Greenie (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1)
Lari -> Inzil (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 1, Inzil - 1)
Brinn -> McCaber (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 2, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1)
Nerwen - Fea (sally - 1, Nogrod - 1, Greenie - 4, Fea - 3, McCaber - 2, Inzil - 1)

Did not vote: sally

OK, I have not got much time and I am not going to be around for the rest of the Day until much nearer the deadline, so some quick thoughts.

Lari as Nightly victim - She was quite high in many people's suspicion lists, including mine. However, I thought that her annoyance toward the end of yesterDay at being so suspected looked pretty genuine. Quite a few people (again, including me) had made the point that there was likely to be a Wolf among the Hakon voters, and so Lari's death points at sally. But, it may be that this was intended. Or might that be a double bluff?

I share the wariness expressed about Fea for her willingness to take on board Lari's Hakon dream theory. But I wonder whether a possible reason for the Wolves picking on Lari may have been to draw attention to this and possible place more pressure on Fea. If Fea is innocent, it would have been clear to the Wolves that she is a potential lynch victim toDay, so it's something that they will have wanted to encourage.

As for Greenie, it is fair to point out that, to the Wolves, she would likely have appeared as an innocent. That said, it is also a possibility that they spotted her as a possible Cobbler and avoided voting for her. Of the Greenie voters, Fea does look the worst, but then she did vote to save herself. I can't really comment on my vote and I am not sure that there is much to be drawn for Roa's and Nogrod's votes.

Other than that, I still don't like McCaber's vote for Nogrod and I am wary of the way that he has come on now and backed off from it, after all the suspicion that it attracted yesterDay.

Given what I have said above, Loslote's vote for McCaber is, I think, understandable. And I am not really able to conclude much from the votes for Fea without knowing what she is. If she is innocent, though, it is quite possible that there was at least one Wolf here, possibly two, taking the opportunity to try to get her lynched.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

All y'all shouldn't forget the easiest explanation for my bonding with Lari at the end of day: she had a pretty solid point. (Clearly I wasn't bonding with her because we were lovers or packmates.)

I had already floated the theory that Borangutan might have killed Hakon for less than Seer-ly reasons. The longer I play, and the more I look at Hack's posts, the less convinced I am that he dreamed of anybody he listed.

However (and here's where it changed): I know my role. And I know Hakon's logic. (Sorry mods) He was playing meta even though it was forbidden. Meta reasoning for who my own personal Stick would make her own personal Crazy Bear for her own personal Amusement? If I was using Hakon's against-the-rules logic, I'd have dreamed of myself first.

Hakon's list of people are ones closest to the mod. And I'm the most visible/notorious of those in that category.

And while at first I was thinking maybe Borangutan was sensitive to Hakon's hints, that doesn't really matter either way, because evil people are hyper-sensitive to criticism and suspicion.

I'm thinking now that Hakon's dreams were supposed to go in the order he listed even though they were preemptively ended.

And upon learning that I number amongst the innocents, there was no need for him to throw himself under any buses to ensure my destruction.

Hence his vagaries.

"Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil.

Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything.

There's always that.

[Inziladun]

Pretty slow toDay, really. No doubt it'll be followed by a frantic hour or two before DL.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

"Don't think of the bear right away" might have corresponded with my name coming first on the list, but that might be stretching it too far. But it is possible that his insistence that we not look for the bear right away correlated with the fact that I was the name one saw on his list right away, and that you shouldn't look at me when aiming for evil.

Then again, he might have just been nattering and it didn't mean anything.

If Hakon had meant us to use the order of the names to correlate with the statement about not worrying about the bear, I have to think he would at least have put those two elements in one post, not two. Try as I might, I can't find any significance in those posts of Hakon's that could lead to conclusions about his one dream. Let's take a look at them again.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

That looks to me as if he was saying 'Let's not argue about the bear helping against the wolves-it's up to the seer to find xim'. The plea to the seer was likely a simple ploy to point the baddies away from him as a seer candiate. Obviously, if that was the case he was unuccessful.

Then, as mentioned, he uses meta-reasoning to say who the bear could be. I edited out the first bit.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I will do some thinking as to who the bear is and who the wolves are. I will post my suspicions and hope that the seer picks one of those names to dream of. I know the seer won't listen to me alone so I am hoping my suspicions are shared. Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

Again, meta-reasoning. And Bearomir could have seen that and thought it might be better to go after Hakon early, just on the off chance there was something else behind his words. But, as I think others have said, if he had dreamed Fea or Sally and knew one of their roles, why would he have put them in as possible bears?
That's all I really see there. I'm sure we'll be enlightened post-game, but for now we're left to work things out on our own.
I think any attempt to use that to point to one's innocence is a major reach, and I can only see furry intentions behind it, whether one tries to qualify it or not.
Then again, Lari thought there could be something to it, and she obviously was not evil.
Regardless, I'm leaning toward another vote for Fea toDay.

[Nienna]

Dear Village,

POST PLEASE.

Love, Me.

[Mirandir]

Dear Village,

I second Nienna. Kthx.

Love, me

[Nogrod]

I thought I was the only one not around and thought I should post first to say I'm around again but it seems it has been a real quiet Day indeed...

I'll go into reading.

[Roa_Aoife]

Ok, I'm here and catching up.

[McCaber]

I'm here too, by coincidence.

[Nogrod]

The end of Day2 was odd indeed...

As I read through those final hours last night I was quite convinced they were both wolves: Lari panicking against the suspicions but also offering this odd theory about Hakon's dreams to make Fea innocent and then Fea running to the stage in the end...

But Lari was innocent.

What Nerwen said about the POV of the wolves actually makes the situation even more confusing. The kill seems to point to Fea and the question remains whether that is bold bluffing (Fea is a wolf) or a set-up by the wolves (Fea is innocent). I would say it'd be a set-up by the wolves, but Fea's insistence on speculating about Hakon's dreams yet toDay makes me kind of worried. Like Inzil said: any attempt to use Hakon's possible dreams to point to one's innocence is a major reach...

I mean I was already baffled on the postings of yesterDay as to why people mulled over whether Hakon had revealed someone's innocence as it quite clearly was not the case?

Let me quote the famous first post once again - but look at the bolding this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have arrived at last. I am going to start off by saying DON'T PAY ATTENTION THE BEAR YET. I am going to use names from this previous disagreement that has been mentioned. I thought we could use the bear to our advantage and Rikae got mad at me and then there was a fight and the bear killed me. That bear was Mira. Seer whoever you think Mira would make a bear, dream of that person tonight.

So why use capital letters there? It's so out of the normal... I don't believe he just tried to say "let's concentrate on more important issues" or something like that. He said it plain and clear that we should not use our time looking at the bear (for he had the answer to that question?). And I can see Boro noticing that - and after finding himself in the shortlist of three - making sure Hakon would not live to tell any more.

It looks like a very solid tactics from the seer with no major concern on his life on Day1; hinting we should look at other problems, casting the name out in the open but not in a too obvious fashion (like mentioning only Boro).

But how does one turn that and the other "infamous statement":

Originally Posted by Hakon

Now looking at who Mira would pick to be the bear a few names come to mind. Fea, Boro, and Sally.

into a "revealment" on anyone's innocence?