T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Where's Nogrod and his horde of arguments and no-nonsense?

Well here, sadly without a bunch of arguments as I'm just quickly skimming this through between two meetings.

Well not too much to comment so far, but that Legate & Lommy are right about the direness of the situation. That doesn't make them innocent though by any means. Actually I'd say on the contrary...

I mean underlining or speculating about the little aids we have looks a bit fishy to me from experience. Wolves oftentimes like to point at that kind of things in the beginning just to look fine (like they were thinking of the situation from the innocent perspective).

But yeah, in a hurry now. Back later.


EDIT: X'd with Wilwa

[Nogrod]

Wilwa, there is an easy answer to your question: let's get one pack down asap.

If there is anything like a choice (heh, like there would be) we should of course eliminate one team and bring the Night-kills down as soon as we can. "Helping" the other wolf-team is little compared to two Night kills.

The fact that you ask that makes me wonder your alignment though. To an innocent I think that is a selve-evident thing. (Yeah, the wolves can reduce the numbers of each other at Night as well, but we should not count on that to survive.

EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Question for the moddess: will we be notified when a wolf dies, of which pack they are from?

Cause that makes a difference, still not sure though which way would be smarter. I mean we could try to get rid of one wolf pack all at once to decrease the night kills, but then at the same time if we do that then we're helping the other wolf team because they can't win unless the other pack is gone. But then if we dwindle each wolf pack down it decreases their chance of winning, but we still will have 2 Night kills which sucks. Plus if we're not told their packs when they die then it's not like we could try to plan that out anyway. This double pack thing is whacky.

Good question in any case. However when it comes to "weeding out one pack", I think it wouldn't really work, for I don't think there is any way you can "select" - only in case you had, for example, Wolf X dead and Wolf Y dead and you knew each of them is from a different pack, and then you were thinking whether to lynch person W or person Z, and there's suspected link between person X and W and between person Y and Z... But you know, that's sort of constructed situation. I don't think, somehow, that we'd have such a liberty of choice very much. I think we'd be just happy to lynch whichever Wolf we can (not that we know anything for sure anyway until the person is lynched, unless we have a Seer-dream, that is).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well not too much to comment so far, but that Legate & Lommy are right about the direness of the situation. That doesn't make them innocent though by any means. Actually I'd say on the contrary...

I mean underlining or speculating about the little aids we have looks a bit fishy to me from experience. Wolves oftentimes like to point at that kind of things in the beginning just to look fine (like they were thinking of the situation from the innocent perspective).

Okay, could not resist to say, "and Nogrod is doing the same" *points to the first sentence - circular argument* But anyway, nice to see you around at last... (although I hoped for more...)

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul and Nerwen
EDITEDIT: And Nogrod!

[Thinlómien]

Pitchwife seems somehow too careful for my taste. I don't know, maybe it's that he's so serious. Although, I wonder if certain moroseness should be a sign of innocence in this game as our future views aren't very cheerful... But since Nogrod rebuked me for being gloomy, I'd like to say what I apparently left unsaid before: it's not like we have an impossible situation. I trust our Moddess when she said she's done try-outs for the setting, so it can't be too unfair. We should have that darn 1/3 chance to win.

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

I'm actually quite pessimistic towards the killing speed, because we need to lynch three wolves to get less kills and they all need to be of the same pack. Not an easy feat. Let's just hope we have a brilliant ranger.

Originally Posted by Legate

What's so interesting there then, I wonder (if you even dismiss it yourself).

Well, it would've been a handy way of hinting something at wolves, but as I checked the roles for cobbler, it stopped making sense because there is now no one who would profit from sending any messages to the wolves. (I guess lovers wouldn't do that either...?)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I agree– and I also feel that there's been just a little too much joking around, even for Day One (yes, I'm including my own first post in that).

I wouldn't say there's been too much joking, just maybe that there's been too little substance. There haven't been too many posts yet in total. And we also have still half of the Day left.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Though, I haven't really been thinking it out properly... The dynamics of this game need more discussion, particularly insofar as they might affect how the wolves act. I am surprised there's been so little attention paid to that.

Right you are. I'm finding it difficult to settle my brain to the werewolf mode, let alone a two-pack werewolf mode. Once I have a bit more time at some point, I will think a little deeper about how the existence of another pack might affect the wolves' behaviour. The first thing that comes to mind is that I guess it would make sense for them to hunt each other during the Days and innocents during the Nights, or that's at least what I'd do if I was them. Anyway, that leads to the unpleasant fact that somebody who a) makes good cases against people and seems to put effort to finding wolves or b) gets a wolf lynched isn't necessarily innocent.


edit: xed with Pitch

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

TEW (Ewie? Tewie?)

Chewie.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

But since Nogrod rebuked me for being gloomy, I'd like to say what I apparently left unsaid before: it's not like we have an impossible situation. I trust our Moddess when she said she's done try-outs for the setting, so it can't be too unfair. We should have that darn 1/3 chance to win.

Let me add something cheerful for counter-balance. Another possibility is - and not probably much more improbable than the worst scenario, if not even the same - that e.g. we lynch a Wolf toDay, it's a HunterWolf, who kills another Wolf from the rival pack, then the packs kill each one Wolf from the other Pack at Night, and we will have two packs of one Wolf the following Day, and no innocent dead. Or something like that.

Speaking of that, it occured to me: what will happen if there were, say, two last remaining Wolves (from different packs), and they attacked each other at Night? Will they kill each other?

Otherwise: a few comments to the previous posts.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I know it's horrible I'm trying to get a feel for people isn't it the way I'm acting "heedlessly" by looking at what people said. Maybe I should do what everyone else does "So and so FEELS off"

Preliminary means what I've seen so far it's early yet I could change my mind.

Okay, point taken. It was just more like that you were being suspicious of something which, by how it looks, does not give reasons for suspicion by itself (not the way you said it anyway). Of course you're free to suspect whomever you want to on whatever grounds you want to...

I am mightily scared of Nerwen. Really. And given the general amount of Wolves, it isn't that far-fetched to think she might be one of them, is it...

And Nogrod makes good remarks in relation to wilwa's words... however... I cannot shake the feeling that it might be intentional action (albeit on good grounds) from a Wolf as well.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Pitchwife seems somehow too careful for my taste. I don't know, maybe it's that he's so serious.

PW seems too unserious to my taste (after the last post, of course) - which could be interpretated as careful too. In the last post: it's like saying something basically without saying much concrete, a bit like a "toy-post", to do something.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyway, that leads to the unpleasant fact that somebody who a) makes good cases against people and seems to put effort to finding wolves or b) gets a wolf lynched isn't necessarily innocent.

That, if nothing else, is a good remark too.

But now off for a while! (Or longer...)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

No no no, you're right about Inziladun. *pets you* Unless he had a horrible accident this weekend (that I wouldn't even want to know about!) he is in fact a guy. Isabellkya, however, is a girl. *snuggles them both* Easy enough to make such mistakes, so don't fret, k?

Thanks for clearing that up. Much as I like Isabelkya, the two of us are not interchangeable.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The way I understood it, only innocents can be revived, and they'll be revived as ordos, whatever their previous role. (If only original ordos could be revived in the first place, there might not be any revival at all - this village seems to suffer from a remarkable shortage of them..

I thought the revived could be given any of the dead's roles. Am I wrong there?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is wolfpack A and wolfpack B - and there is no difference which one of them devours us. So as soon as we get our first wolf we need to hope for the next one being from the same pack, whichever of them it is. And then the third from the same pack. It doesn't matter which one it is. But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

That's an interesting observation about Wilwa. I'll keep it in mind.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

I'm actually quite pessimistic towards the killing speed, because we need to lynch three wolves to get less kills and they all need to be of the same pack. Not an easy feat. Let's just hope we have a brilliant ranger.

Looking for associations is always worthwhile. Unfortunately, I think nailing wolves in succession from the same pack is going to be more a matter of luck than deduction. With so many wolves running around, there's going to be a lot to process, and I also think it may be easier for them to avoid links to one another.

x/d with Legate

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The bolded part is the one that raises my eyebrows. There is wolfpack A and wolfpack B - and there is no difference which one of them devours us. So as soon as we get our first wolf we need to hope for the next one being from the same pack, whichever of them it is. And then the third from the same pack. It doesn't matter which one it is. But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

That is indeed a highly peculiar thing to say. Though, you'd think a Wolfwa would be more careful.

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway. Which might make an ill-considered remark more likely– for an innocent as well as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Although, I wonder if certain moroseness should be a sign of innocence in this game as our future views aren't very cheerful...

*cough* Getting a little close to the "If I were a wolf I'd do X but look I'm doing Y" type of argument, no?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm finding it difficult to settle my brain to the werewolf mode, let alone a two-pack werewolf mode. Once I have a bit more time at some point, I will think a little deeper about how the existence of another pack might affect the wolves' behaviour. The first thing that comes to mind is that I guess it would make sense for them to hunt each other during the Days and innocents during the Nights, or that's at least what I'd do if I was them. Anyway, that leads to the unpleasant fact that somebody who a) makes good cases against people and seems to put effort to finding wolves or b) gets a wolf lynched isn't necessarily innocent.

A good point. It's a little like the situation when you have a Werebear– the wolves (and cobblers) are often such eager and helpful bear-hunters that the village starts trusting them.

EDIT:X'd since Lommy again.
EDIT2: Took out sentence about Wilwa– misunderstood quote.