T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[wilwarin538]

So turns out my body highly disagrees with having 3 viles of blood forcefully removed from it, so if nothing I say here makes sense, pleace forgive me as I've been trying not to faint for the last hour...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Wilwa, there is an easy answer to your question: let's get one pack down asap.

If there is anything like a choice (heh, like there would be) we should of course eliminate one team and bring the Night-kills down as soon as we can. "Helping" the other wolf-team is little compared to two Night kills.

The fact that you ask that makes me wonder your alignment though. To an innocent I think that is a selve-evident thing. (Yeah, the wolves can reduce the numbers of each other at Night as well, but we should not count on that to survive.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The bolded part is the one that raises my eyebrows. There is wolfpack A and wolfpack B - and there is no difference which one of them devours us. So as soon as we get our first wolf we need to hope for the next one being from the same pack, whichever of them it is. And then the third from the same pack. It doesn't matter which one it is. But the way you bring it up feels to me like it mattered to you Wilwa, like you saw it was kind of unfair if we in a way "helped" the other wolfpack.

It's a totally different thing whether we can make any deductions as to which lupine action points towards which possible combination of wolves to "direct" our lynches...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

Ok.

So what I was trying to say was yes we want to get a whole pack gone as soon as possble because we want to stop the double night kills, BUT one pack can't win unless the other pack is gone, so in effect by getting rid of one, yes we'll be helping ourselves, but we'll also be making the other pack's lives a bit easier.
(Nog, I don't think it's unfair, I just don't want to help the wolves out)

Now if you do the math we have a good chance of lynching a wolf, but the wolf packs also have a good chance of night killing a wolf from the other pack. Also with 3 rangers it could easily decrease the night kills. So it could turn out that maybe every Night we won't even have 2 deaths, just from maybe the packs choosing the same person, or the ranger interfering, or whatnot. So bringing down each pack to 1 or 2 each would make it far harder for them to win, than having one pack at 3 and getting rid of the other pack completely.

Is my mind just weird, cause this seems to make a lot of sense to me.

And yes, obviously it's hard to know which pack wolves are from anyway, so probably what I was saying is irrelevant since there is really no way to know which pack a wolf is from til it's dead. And even that we haven't had confirmed yet. I was just trying to get discussions started, which obviously worked....

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway.

Yes, the tests are because it seems likely that I have some sort of illness.

So I just typed that whole thing mostly with my left hand, cause my right arm is kind of dead and crazy sore, so I have to stop now. Plus I have lots of homework. I'll be back on later though after I get some sugar in me.

x'ed with Legate

[satansaloser2005]

K, I just have to get this out now so I can get it out of my head and make a proper post.



The next person who says something to the effect of "Sally was nice and friendly earlier toDay, she must be hiding something evil" gets my vote. I've not played with Elf before, he made a mistake (which again, was understandable), and I was trying to both introduce myself and clear up said misunderstanding. Who here doesn't do that to new kids/returning lovelies? Conspiracy? I think so!

In other news, I ain't trying this game, at least not like I did last time. I got suspected for trying too hard so if I'm going to be in trouble either way I'm not going to waste hours I could spend doing something productive doing an analysi post Having said that, I'll still be semi-active. Just not a lot of wordy brain power.


And now I'm going to go look through stuff and see what opinions I'm forming. K?






ETA: Oh, and Wilwa? *hands lots of cookies, hugs tightly* Poor dear.

[The Elf-warrior]

Ok, I've read through the thread. I personally think that a wolf wouldn't have the nerve to edit the actual content of a post after posting without a note. So, I guess I'm turning Nerwen's bad conduct into a sign of innocence. Still, that's my opinion on the matter.

I think Wilwa's remark about not wanting to help out the other team is not suspicious. Her explantation satisfies me.

Originally Posted by Legate

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat".

What is happy about confusing Inzildun with Isabellkya?

Originally Posted by Lommy

EW - seems slightly nervous and at loss as for what to say.

Fair enough description of me.

Actually, Sally, we have played together before in Werewolf XLVI.Then again, I barely participated in that game. I was an innocent in that game, but let's just say I did a bad job.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Elf War-Pig

Actually, Sally, we have played together before in Werewolf XLVI.Then again, I barely participated in that game. I was an innocent in that game, but let's just say I did a bad job.

Ah, right you are. Sorry, that was ages ago and I don't think I played much in that game either. Still, I didn't remember you and was trying to be friendly, that's all. *whispers* They're onto us. Stop talking to me before they sort it out.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwa

So what I was trying to say was yes we want to get a whole pack gone as soon as possble because we want to stop the double night kills, BUT one pack can't win unless the other pack is gone, so in effect by getting rid of one, yes we'll be helping ourselves, but we'll also be making the other pack's lives a bit easier.
(Nog, I don't think it's unfair, I just don't want to help the wolves out)

And what exactly would you say we should do in order to avoid helping the wolves out, or what else is the point of all this? OK, you started a discussion, but you don't seem to be thinking straight in my opinion. I'm considering your bad health, however - so get some food & rest, and we'll see.

And now, last not least:
Nog
#26: Legate & Lommy right about dire situation, but not necessarily innocent;
#28: answer's wilwa's question in the by-now-famous #25, wonders about her alignment because of it (as did I there & then);
#31: further comments on said post of wilwa's and her apparent concern about us 'helping the other wolf team'.
Conclusion so far: quieter than usual (which was to be expected, as we know he's busy); other than that, nothing out of the ordinary, except that he hasn't yet suspected me for being too careful (but Legate and Lommy are taking care of that).

Speaking of which - is it just me, or are our two L's agreeing quite a lot with each other (peppered with some occasional casual distancing)? And Nerwen with both of them?

[satansaloser2005]

Boro, stop flirting. That's my job.

*scampers off to continue her 'proper' post*

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Boro, stop flirting. That's my job.

Sorry, love, can't fight the moonlight?

Some dynamics to consider. Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

Both packs being in competition have a ying and a yang. They are threats to eachother and want to kill the others probably just as badly as they want to kill innocents. But then, they can use that to their advantage by looking more innocent to us.

I don't get the doomsday, direness though. Ok, 6 wolves have to die instead of 3 or 4. That's more challenging. But it will be just as difficult for the individual pack to win, because their really is no benefit in having another competing pack. It's like how I don't get why we assume the werebear and wolves would work together? Only instead of just 1 lone bear, there are 3 opposing wolves each pack has to worry about. And there are 2 seers each pack of 3 have to worry about.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sorry, love, can't fight the moonlight?

Some dynamics to consider. Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

Both packs being in competition have a ying and a yang. They are threats to eachother and want to kill the others probably just as badly as they want to kill innocents. But then, they can use that to their advantage by looking more innocent to us.

I don't get the doomsday, direness though. Ok, 6 wolves have to die instead of 3 or 4. That's more challenging. But it will be just as difficult for the individual pack to win, because their really is no benefit in having another competing pack. It's like how I don't get why we assume the werebear and wolves would work together? Only instead of just 1 lone bear, there are 3 opposing wolves each pack has to worry about. And there are 2 seers each pack of 3 have to worry about.

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

EDIT: split up the quote because I'd forgotten to do so prior to actually posting

[satansaloser2005]

Also, about the reveals. Erm, there's three seers out there. Even I would try a reveal at some point if I was one of the wolf seers and had good dreams to go off of. (It's irrelevant, but I almost wish I were a wolf so I could do it lol.)

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

A plan of attack needs to be made for any reveals later on in the game. I'd say toDay or toMorrow is the Day to do it, as toDay we're not going to have a lot to go on (and it gives us something, as well as enhancing discussion) and toMorrow we'll have a Night's events to go from.

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.


EDIT: x'd with Boro. And I agree.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.

Maybe a bit paranoid, but just a bit.

I mean if someone says "Don't lynch Morsul, Pitch is a wolf!" I don't think we have much of a choice other than to listen. But, I see what you're saying when you say "don't trust our seer."

Our seer is in a rather difficult position, because with the amount of wolves, it's not like he can stick his head out at any first fake seer reveal. Also, as you said the wolf packs with their own seer can easily look believable, and just because whoever is claiming to be the seer's info turns out accurate, doesn't mean we should automatically trust that person as the innocent seer.

However, if we're fortunate the wolf pack will fear the wolf-seer just as much as the innocent seer and want to get rid of the opposing wolf-seer quickly too. That should cause wariness in any wolf claiming to be the seer, because the other pack could just kill him that night....but then again there are ranger-wolves, which provides a different niche. Ah! Brain now hurting.

[Kitanna]

I have forty minutes to read the thread, make my decision, and vote. Ugh, work days.

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Nerwen asks for her editing to not be blown out of proportion. Nogrod says this on the subject:

a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What do you mean wilwa with that bolded part there? Are you saying that it is a positive thing that there are two wolf-rangers who can protect their mates from the rivalling team's attacks? Isn't that just the contrary and one more reason to get rid of one whole team asap.?

Uh, honestly I hadn't even thought of that. I see Ranger and I automatically think they're on our side, I'm not used to the idea of an evilRanger, but yes of course they would protect their fellow wolves. I guess cause even the evil Hunter can help us out if they hunt one of the other pack, and the evil Unicorn can bring an innocent back to life, so I suppose I had the idea of 3 Rangers being a good thing. That was my mistake.

Originally Posted by Nog

So do you think we should refrain ourselves from lynching wolves as lynching a wolf from pack A is "helping" pack B?

No, that is not what I think.

Look, I'm gonna stop explaining this. Day 1 I talk about the rules, I talk about the statistics and our chances of winning, it's what I do. That's all I was doing, I was just trying to wrap my mind around our situation and be sure that we hadn't missed something. I see now that what I was saying was rather pointless, since there's no way to tell what pack a certain suspect could belong to, I was just talking, trying to stir up talk, I obviously hadn't thought of every possible scenario.

*is exhausted*

About the Seer reveals. I think if someone comes forward we should lynch those they say are a wolf, but not necessarily trust those that they say are innocent. Like a wolfseer could reveal the identity of a wolf from the other pack, so we should take all wolf identity reveals seriously, even though there's a chance they're lying, but then the next day we just have a wolf anyway. When it comes to a seer revealer saying someone is innocent though, we shouldn't take that as seriously, I'd say we should almost ignore it until we can be more sure about the seer's side. Since a seer wolf could say one of their mates is innocent, then reveal a wolf from the other pack, and we might think since they were right about the wolf then the one they say is innocent must actually be, when they may not. Does that make sense?

Originally Posted by Sally

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

That whole highlighted part bugs me, just the feel of it. I'm all for optimism, but the way that she seems so against those who are just being realistic about our chances, and the "making people panic" thing. I don't know, I just don't like it. (though I'll admit I have just skimmed through everything and so don't have an accurate feel on her with regards to all her posts, this one was just the last one so I read it more thorougly, I'll look more closely at everyone later).

I don't think Nerwen's editing thing is a big deal at all, I mean it's not like she does it all the time or anything. I think some are making a bit too big a deal out of it. Besides, even innocent people worry about looking suspicious and do stuff to avoid that, avoiding suspicion is not only something wolves do.

I should be back on randomly until DL. I'll probably wait longer to vote since on Day 2 my vote will have to be rediculously early, I want this one to be more thought out.

x'ed since Sally at 63

[Pitchwife]

About the Nerwen edit thing: much as I'm inclined to respect her wish not to see it blown out of proportion, turning the matter into a 'sign of innocence', as Tewie does in #49, is too much. After last game, I'm not sure there's anything I'd put beyond a Nerwolf. Not going to vote her without some better reason, though.

Originally Posted by Legate #46

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat". Of course, that would mean that they would have to be packmates.

As if most games didn't start with banter like that for the first 10-15 posts. I'm not saying ignore it all - there can be valuable hints in banter, like a cobbler signalling to wolves or self-conscious "I'm-so-evil" jokes - , but seeing a happy wolf chat just because there was some banter, regardless of content, is stretching it.
(Btw, Zil, I explicitely did applaud Legate in my very first post. Remains to be seen whether that was premature or not.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

And at the same time making a genuine reveal by our own Seer rather risky, especially after this here:

Originally Posted by sally

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

Again, this is obviously true, but what's the point of stating it, except to sow mistrust of any Seer revealing, including our own?
But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

EDIT: x-ed w/ Boro, sally & Kit

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife, re: my seer theorizing

....what's the point of stating it, except to sow mistrust of any Seer revealing, including our own?
But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

Heh. You just made my freaking day.

When I posted that I not only wanted to make everyone aware of what I was thinking, but I also expected certain types of responses and wanted to see who would give them to me.

Let's analyze! That's right, analyze myself (sort of)!

Me: "So we can't trust the seer right away. Don't kill them, necessarily, but don't trust their motives. We still gotta listen to them though, 'cause....yeah."

Pitch: "Sally wants to make us mistrust our seer! I'm going to hint that she's evil because clearly someone who says this is a wolf!"

Me: *saw that coming*

Pitch: "But we have to keep an eye out and be open-minded because it could be a wolf!hunter trying to bravely protect their wolf!seer. Blah blah."

Me: *saw that coming*

Pitch: "Oh, and of course the ordo!hunter could do that too. Wow, look what I did? I planned for nearly every eventuality in this and completely just discredited Sally. Oh, and of course I've been thinking about this for more than an ordo would need to but I've no reason to be worried about it, oh noes, not me."

Me: "Pitch? Hun?"

Pitch: *blushes* "Yes?"

Me: "Your fur is showing."



I love it when my drag-crap-out-of-you posts work out so well. Look, I got an Izzy to try to fear monger against me too. Lovely! I'm proud of myself!


And now I'll go look at Pitch more in detail. Kthnxbye? Kthnxbye. ^_^



Yes, I'm paranoid. I don't care. I got exactly the wolf!reaction I expected and I plan to deal with Pitch accordingly. *grins, runs off*

[Nogrod]

Sorry to put all those parts of the posts there, but if one of them turns out a wolf that kind of easy-reference might prove handy later (and I had to do that anyway to get muself to read them in order).

So so me comments...

On the discussion on Wilwa.

Pitch says it's the most suspicious thing he's seen so far (after some round-abouts) - which is kind of all too easy.

Lommy doesn't take sides on suspicions but comments only on the general issue. Carefully decided not to comment on Wilwa herself?

Inzil sound opportunistic with his "interesting" and "keep it in mind".

Nerwen more or less defends Wilwa: "a Wolfwa would be more careful". Heh, were you two "more careful" in the last game? Also it is interesting she tries to give a meta-reason (she's ill) to not think Wilwa suspicious.

Kit says it's no real sign against Wilwa (obviously... so what's the point?). Feels a bit protective.

The EW is satisfied with Wilwa's explanation... excuse me?

Inzil (second comment) misses the mark and ends up saying he would not vote on the basis of that - and that follows the new sentiment that people don't seem to suspect Wilwa that much... that could be seen as opportunistic as well.

Kit (second comment) notes Nerwen's and Inzil's reactions to the suspicion.

Izzy banged the head of the nail by saying what I was thinking about... so why I suspected Wilwa in the first place.


On the discussion on Nerwen

Pitch looks like trigger-happy again without committing himself too much (see above case Wilwa). I'm uneasy with him and the two "hits".

The EW says he will turn Nerwen's "bad conduct into a sign of innocence"... excuse me? It's the second time I just don't get him - but it might actually be just a different approach... but it bothers me still.

Inzil seems to be quick to join the group defending Nerwen - but still feels the need to re-explain after my re-stating of the point.

Sally takes the personal view: I do that as well and it's likely the same with her. Looks good, but if she is in cahoots with Nerwen she would probably have said the same...

Although (and this holds for all the people to come later as well) I'm not so sure anyone being Nerwen's packmate would think it advisable to comment on the issue at this point any more as basically everyone had already said there was nothing suspicious in there. So why relate themselves defending their mate (if Nerwen gets lynched / killed) as someone might come back to these discussions afterwards?

But Boro's "cut the crap, she's innocent" -attitude is way too overconfident for my liking. Especially the comment "let's leave it at that". Well, well, well...

Kit comes around now defending Nerwen... interesting, but probably more innocent than suspicious, regardless of Nerwen's role.

Pitch (second comment) is very carefully trying to not let the suspicion go but says he won't vote her without better reasons...


Okay. You can see quite a lot of what I think from these comments. Now I need to take a short break, read the rest that has come in while I have been writing these, and then make some kind of final remarks for the Day, vote and go to sleep.

[Thinlómien]

Huh, you people are posting a lot and my brain actually hurts. A pause from ww seems to be no good...

In my brain, Wilwa and Sally are currently not making much sense. Wilwa I can excuse by her loss of blood but Sally... eh, darling, have you taken some illegal substances?

Well, I have to admit Wilwa makes some sense but sometimes I don't get her logic. She got me wondering about the end conditions of this game. If there's 2 of each team (2 wolves from team 1, 2 wolves from team 2, 2 innocents) the game continues as normal, right? Or what? But I still think it makes the most sense to kill the wolf-packs one by one, at least to me.

Sally is all banter, and makes weird points. Either because she refuses to explain them because of avoiding being too reasonable or either because she's laying traps, but it still confuses me.

There's something that doesn't quite sit right with me with Ewie. He is somehow too humble, or something. Humble as in "quick to admit one's own mistakes and vices" which is something wolves are more prone to do, because they know they're evil. I think his actions are worth following.

Originally Posted by Boro

Although with the time zone differences, I guess this means we won't have much time together? 'Tis a pity.

Yes, less of personal Dr Boro therapy for me, I guess.

Nogrod is making mountains out of molehills (eg. Nerwen editing issue) but because it's so characteristic of him, I will let it pass.

As for the seer reveals, I don't think we need to bother about them so much now. Like somebody said, wolf claims are probably true and if they aren't, then we have a stupid false seer. And we can always lynch a seer claimant - there's after all at least 1/3 chance s/he's a wolf. (Pretty drastic, I know, but mathematically it makes sense. That's why I hate matemathical arguments.)

Originally Posted by Sally

I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

Ehh what? As well I could say now that you're (hmm what would be a good word...?) big bad wolfing (?) now by claiming the wolves are in trouble. Actually that would be a far more wolvish thing to do - to lull the villagers to a false sense of security.

And I don't think we've had any too pessimistic stormcrows. At least I think I (and those whose points I recall) have been just realistic. And it's (almost) always better to be too wary than too trusting in werewolf. And still some things are facts. We do not have as big chances of winning as in a normal game. It can't be so with three teams competing for victory. But if we accept the fact that we have a 1/3 chance of winning, then we are on a realistic ground. Maybe to some it is pessimism to say it aloud, but it's realism. It doesn't make me especially happy either, but we just have to live with it. At least each wolf pack has also only 1/3 chance of winning, even though the probability of a wolf victory is 2/3.

Originally Posted by Izzy

I do not like how Legate connected himself to Nogrod in terms of Nog will come and lynch all of the Day One Jokers. I think in the meta-game sense, about eighteen posts of first Day joking is on the small side, when it could and has easily turned into two pages.

That actually troubled me too, although it feeling bad to me didn't seem to have any reasonable gorunds back then nor does it now. What would a wolf-Legate profit from threatening villagers with Nogrod? Don't get it. Well maybe the wolves aren't always acting hyperanalytically and purposefully (something that's good to keep in mind) but that makes drawing conclusions more difficult.


My thoughts on people this far (note that the division between categories is really artificial, but I wanted to arrange them somehow)...

More good than bad
Nogrod - looks like himself although he is quite quiet. Doesn't give off wolvish vibes.
Kitanna - for once, I do not suspect her on Day1. I hope it means that I've learnt to read her (and not that she's evil this time). She seems to have sharp points, although I don't necessarily agree with them.
Zil - seems more reasonable than most, although I can't remember anything in particular that he said, which could be eyebrow-raising. He is not giving the sinister vibes he so often is when he's evil.
Izzy - if I had bet on one person's innocence, I would lay my bet on Izzy. She makes sense, thinks independently and seems to notice stuff others don't. I like her.

Enigmas
Wilwa - she needs more blood and sugar. She occasionally makes me raise my eyebrows but it might be just our disagreement or her physical condition. Nothing too bad yet.
Legate - has something fishy in his manner, has seemed more genuine towards the end of the Day, though. He makes sense but is at times a bit off (feeling-wise).
Nerwen - always an enigma.
Pitchwife - my opinion on him changes like a rollercoaster. Now again I was becoming quite sure there's something really sinister in his pleasant and careful manner, when somebody's post reminded me of his reputation as Mister Agreeable (I had forgotten that). Also, there seems to be suspicion againt him in the air exactly in the manner that makes me reconsider my own suspicions.

More bad than good
Morsul - I don't know what's it, but the less I think of him, the more suspicious I consider him. Err, that probably didn't make much sense. But I just mean that when I'm not paying any particular attention to him, he starts to seem like a threatening figure on the background. He may be acting characteristically, but that shouldn't exonerate him. There's just something bad I seem to have half-consciously gathered from his posts.
Boro - not giving any (in)famous vibes to either direction, but I don't like it how much he seems to have been reading and pondering the rules. It's always a disturbing when somebody appears for the first time on Day1 and gives a very enlightened and calm impression.
Shasta - hiding behind banter and not replying points made against him. And what is this Nilp-thingy? I get the feeling that an innocent would be more worried ergo involved at this point.
Ewie - seems to have bad conscience, see what I said above. But I also said I won't vote him without a good reason and I'm not sure if this counts as one.

This made me rearrange my thoughts a bit, but I'm not any closer to a decision of whom to vote. Feels like it will be a tough choice...


edit: xed with 2x Nog, 1xLeg, 1xBog (sorry had to make it rhyme!)

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by sally

Pitch: *blushes* "Yes?"

*does nothing of the kind, having nothing to blush for*
But obviously I do have something to worry about. Seriously, am I getting paranoid myself or is there a conspiracy going on?
Lommy #34: I'm too careful/serious;
Legate #35: I'm not serious enough;
Legate #46: I make safe posts and applaud him too much;
Shasta #70: I'm a wolf because I'm too smokescreeny, repetitive and safe. (Takes some cheek to make that accusation after having been a submarine all Day himself!)
sally #76: acts like she's caught me in a trap because I've actually given some thought to the matter she addressed previously instead of just being 'uh, yeah, well, what are we going to do?'. And if you think I've been thinking about this 'more than an ordo would need to', how come you saw it all coming? What does that say about yourself?
Looks like at least one bandwagon is guaranteed toDay...

À propos, bed- and voting time is approaching.
Not going to vote for at this time (but might later, depending):
Tewie - he doesn't feel quite right to me, but I'm giving him a pass toDay as he hasn't played for a long time;
wilwa - she's either furry or confused out of her senses by blood loss (except in what she says about Seer reveals, which actually made sense to me); I'm assuming it's the latter, in which case it would be unfair to lynch her toDay, but she urgently needs to improve.

Tend to trust:
Nog - yeah, well, shouldn't be taken for granted and all that, but I really don't see anything outstanding yet. I note Boro's point about using suspicions to merely probe and not stick with them, but he's been known to do that before, too.
Kit - pointed out Nerwen's much-discussed edit, but also brought arguments in her defense, which speaks of looking at things with an unbiased eye. Good observation about Zil changing mind on wilwa and Nerwen after Nog's respective posts.
Izzy - like her comeback.
Morsul - little to go on, and some not-awfully-well-reasoned early suspicions, but seems to be just himself.

Would like to trust, but ain't sure I can:
Boro - not sure why, but he feels more innocentish than usual this time. There could be some collusion 'tween him and sally or not, I don't know.
Legate - most of what he says is sensible, maybe too good to be true? What I'm most worried about is the amount of agreement between him, Lommy and Nerwen.
Lommy - as I said before, looking mostly sensible but hard to really pin her down on either side.

Unsure leaning to suspicious:
Zil - neither here nor there, very guarded, hitching on to Nog's suspicions of wilwa and Nerwen;
Nerwen - neglecting the notorious edit aside, she's just too unreadable for my taste, looks like carefully avoiding to let us know what she thinks of others and rub anybody the wrong way.

Seriously p***ed off with, probably to the point of voting:
Shasta
sally
I really hate knee-jerk retaliation, but sailing safely under the radar for most of the Day and then pounce on me for thinking too much, or whatever... gah.

Some final digestion, and then a vote.

EDIT: x-ed with everybody for the last hour or so.

[Inziladun]

I'm in the middle of my work day after taking some time off (read: mountain of work) , so I'm trying to look in every so often and see what's going on.

Let's see...some early thoughts:

Morsul- seemed fairly in character with his first post, but then his reaction to faint criticism of it felt a little defensive.

Nerwen- is never one to take for granted. I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

Legate- Hmm. Lots of posting. A couple of things stand out.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am mightily scared of Nerwen. Really. And given the general amount of Wolves, it isn't that far-fetched to think she might be one of them, is it...

In his very next post:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just a short sum-up for now:

Worried about:

Pitchwife - rather "safe" list-posts and the fact that he applauds me so much (yes, again... *sigh* sorry), as I have said earlier. It's sort of irrational thing, but I am mightily scared that something about it isn't just right. And given the amount of Wolves, the chance is pretty big that he might be one.

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat". Of course, that would mean that they would have to be packmates.

Hard to say:

Nogrod
Nerwen - she is "slightly reasonable", but somewhat careful-ish. Well, as if one could catch Nerwolf on basis of something.

Not worried about:

Lommy - for some reason, not looking like her Wolfish self.
Morsul - looking like his innocent self (although that said, I haven't been playing with him for some time, so he might have "developed").

Otherwise not much ideas about:
Kitanna
Inziladun
Boro (not appeared yet)
Wilwa
Shasta
Isabellkya

Nerwen- has accountably moved from someone of whom he was 'mightily scared', to 'slightly reasonable' and 'careful-ish'; he'd placed her in the 'Hard To Say' category.
Also, was Pitch really 'applauding' you? I haven't really seen any over the top 'buttering up' of you, or anything of that nature.

Pitch- Mr. Agreeable, himself. Fairly involved. Nothing to key in on at the moment.

Izzy- Nothing since early banter.

Wilwa- That remark about helping one wolf team get rid of the other was odd. I don't see how we can possibly know who belongs to what pack anyway, even if the pack indentities are given when a wolf dies. Can we really single out wolves as belonging to one pack or another? Not unless one has some inside info. Still, having blood drawn is assignable to Mordor, and I personally don't do well with needles, so I don't know if I can vote for her toDay.

Kit- Nothing of note.

TEW- Early banter, and a recent appearance. Not much to go on, and the fact that I've never played with him before doesn't help.

Sally- Solidly Sallyish.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The next person who says something to the effect of "Sally was nice and friendly earlier toDay, she must be hiding something evil" gets my vote. I've not played with Elf before, he made a mistake (which again, was understandable), and I was trying to both introduce myself and clear up said misunderstanding. Who here doesn't do that to new kids/returning lovelies? Conspiracy? I think so!

In other news, I ain't trying this game, at least not like I did last time. I got suspected for trying too hard so if I'm going to be in trouble either way I'm not going to waste hours I could spend doing something productive doing an analysi post Having said that, I'll still be semi-active. Just not a lot of wordy brain power.

So you don't mind if we lynch you for being a submarine?

And Nog- Some decent points earlier. Nothing evil looking, at any rate. I've learned to my sorrow that the more I trust him, the more likely he is to be a wolf though. It doesn't do to take him for granted.

Boro- Who?

Which leaves Lommy- Active. Maybe a little 'Captain Obvious' stuff, but nothing radar-pinging.

EDIT-Took me a while to type. X/d with Sally and Nog. Also added Boro

[satansaloser2005]

*giggles at Dun* Nope, not at all. As long as you're wearing a dress at the time.

(Sorry, I couldn't resist! Meep.)

Erm, something personal came up, so I had to desert my computer for a while. Sorry. But I'm back now and can finish up that post.



Is it just me, or do several people look like they're trying too hard to be important?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I just don't want to help the wolves out

So do you think we should refrain ourselves from lynching wolves as lynching a wolf from pack A is "helping" pack B?

But this one then?

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Now if you do the math we have a good chance of lynching a wolf, but the wolf packs also have a good chance of night killing a wolf from the other pack. Also with 3 rangers it could easily decrease the night kills. So it could turn out that maybe every Night we won't even have 2 deaths, just from maybe the packs choosing the same person, or the ranger interfering, or whatnot. So bringing down each pack to 1 or 2 each would make it far harder for them to win, than having one pack at 3 and getting rid of the other pack completely.

First of all, I agree that you have a point there I hadn't quite thought of - if the rules state that each wolf-group needs to win individually (so the total numbers of wolves are not weighed against the innocents), which I think they need to do. So getting rid of even one from the other team would be good indeed.

And saying this now like the N'th time: it is more or less impossible to target any suspicious looking person to belong to an exact wolfteam so all this discussion of whether or not to pursue one team or both is more or less academic for now. Sure. It might be different in the later Days though.

But.

What do you mean wilwa with that bolded part there? Are you saying that it is a positive thing that there are two wolf-rangers who can protect their mates from the rivalling team's attacks? Isn't that just the contrary and one more reason to get rid of one whole team asap.?


Okay. Enough.

I'll go back doing some re-reading..


EDIT: X'd with Pitch and Sally

[Nogrod]

Thinking will clearly help more than reading at this point - like Nerwen's call for thinking about the dynamics. Somehow re-reading wasn't that productive.

There was one thing though that did raise my eyebrows and it was that Nerwen editing things -issue. What bothers me there is that - and I know this from experience - a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

And even if editing content surely is a no-no in a werewolf-game, it is a matter of the grey-area whether it is editing in the strong sense if you're around alone and manage to make that extra change before the site makes that "last edited by..." text to the end of the post. It's like having not just yet pushed the send -button...

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thinking will clearly help more than reading at this point - like Nerwen's call for thinking about the dynamics. Somehow re-reading wasn't that productive.

There was one thing though that did raise my eyebrows and it was that Nerwen editing things -issue. What bothers me there is that - and I know this from experience - a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

And even if editing content surely is a no-no in a werewolf-game, it is a matter of the grey-area whether it is editing in the strong sense if you're around alone and manage to make that extra change before the site makes that "last edited by..." text to the end of the post. It's like having not just yet pushed the send -button...

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

Fair enough, but I've done the same thing both as an innocent and as a wolf. If I realize I've made a mistake I fix it right away, and if I don't think anyone has noticed I just don't say anything about it because it's easier, or I just plain forget to add that 'edit' at the end. Regardless of her role, it's likely the same with Nerwen.

Surprisingly, however, you put more effort into that accusation (or whatever you'd like to call it) than I think an innocent Nog would do. Speaking of peculiar....


EDIT: x'd with Dun

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

I side with what Nerwen said in #42. Don't make a mountain out of a mole-hill with the editting. It's questionable sportsmanship to use meta reasoning and speculation as to what and why someone was editting.

Nerwen said "yep, that's right Kit," gave an explanation. Let's leave it at that.