T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Thinlómien]

Huh, you people are posting a lot and my brain actually hurts. A pause from ww seems to be no good...

In my brain, Wilwa and Sally are currently not making much sense. Wilwa I can excuse by her loss of blood but Sally... eh, darling, have you taken some illegal substances?

Well, I have to admit Wilwa makes some sense but sometimes I don't get her logic. She got me wondering about the end conditions of this game. If there's 2 of each team (2 wolves from team 1, 2 wolves from team 2, 2 innocents) the game continues as normal, right? Or what? But I still think it makes the most sense to kill the wolf-packs one by one, at least to me.

Sally is all banter, and makes weird points. Either because she refuses to explain them because of avoiding being too reasonable or either because she's laying traps, but it still confuses me.

There's something that doesn't quite sit right with me with Ewie. He is somehow too humble, or something. Humble as in "quick to admit one's own mistakes and vices" which is something wolves are more prone to do, because they know they're evil. I think his actions are worth following.

Originally Posted by Boro

Although with the time zone differences, I guess this means we won't have much time together? 'Tis a pity.

Yes, less of personal Dr Boro therapy for me, I guess.

Nogrod is making mountains out of molehills (eg. Nerwen editing issue) but because it's so characteristic of him, I will let it pass.

As for the seer reveals, I don't think we need to bother about them so much now. Like somebody said, wolf claims are probably true and if they aren't, then we have a stupid false seer. And we can always lynch a seer claimant - there's after all at least 1/3 chance s/he's a wolf. (Pretty drastic, I know, but mathematically it makes sense. That's why I hate matemathical arguments.)

Originally Posted by Sally

I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

Ehh what? As well I could say now that you're (hmm what would be a good word...?) big bad wolfing (?) now by claiming the wolves are in trouble. Actually that would be a far more wolvish thing to do - to lull the villagers to a false sense of security.

And I don't think we've had any too pessimistic stormcrows. At least I think I (and those whose points I recall) have been just realistic. And it's (almost) always better to be too wary than too trusting in werewolf. And still some things are facts. We do not have as big chances of winning as in a normal game. It can't be so with three teams competing for victory. But if we accept the fact that we have a 1/3 chance of winning, then we are on a realistic ground. Maybe to some it is pessimism to say it aloud, but it's realism. It doesn't make me especially happy either, but we just have to live with it. At least each wolf pack has also only 1/3 chance of winning, even though the probability of a wolf victory is 2/3.

Originally Posted by Izzy

I do not like how Legate connected himself to Nogrod in terms of Nog will come and lynch all of the Day One Jokers. I think in the meta-game sense, about eighteen posts of first Day joking is on the small side, when it could and has easily turned into two pages.

That actually troubled me too, although it feeling bad to me didn't seem to have any reasonable gorunds back then nor does it now. What would a wolf-Legate profit from threatening villagers with Nogrod? Don't get it. Well maybe the wolves aren't always acting hyperanalytically and purposefully (something that's good to keep in mind) but that makes drawing conclusions more difficult.


My thoughts on people this far (note that the division between categories is really artificial, but I wanted to arrange them somehow)...

More good than bad
Nogrod - looks like himself although he is quite quiet. Doesn't give off wolvish vibes.
Kitanna - for once, I do not suspect her on Day1. I hope it means that I've learnt to read her (and not that she's evil this time). She seems to have sharp points, although I don't necessarily agree with them.
Zil - seems more reasonable than most, although I can't remember anything in particular that he said, which could be eyebrow-raising. He is not giving the sinister vibes he so often is when he's evil.
Izzy - if I had bet on one person's innocence, I would lay my bet on Izzy. She makes sense, thinks independently and seems to notice stuff others don't. I like her.

Enigmas
Wilwa - she needs more blood and sugar. She occasionally makes me raise my eyebrows but it might be just our disagreement or her physical condition. Nothing too bad yet.
Legate - has something fishy in his manner, has seemed more genuine towards the end of the Day, though. He makes sense but is at times a bit off (feeling-wise).
Nerwen - always an enigma.
Pitchwife - my opinion on him changes like a rollercoaster. Now again I was becoming quite sure there's something really sinister in his pleasant and careful manner, when somebody's post reminded me of his reputation as Mister Agreeable (I had forgotten that). Also, there seems to be suspicion againt him in the air exactly in the manner that makes me reconsider my own suspicions.

More bad than good
Morsul - I don't know what's it, but the less I think of him, the more suspicious I consider him. Err, that probably didn't make much sense. But I just mean that when I'm not paying any particular attention to him, he starts to seem like a threatening figure on the background. He may be acting characteristically, but that shouldn't exonerate him. There's just something bad I seem to have half-consciously gathered from his posts.
Boro - not giving any (in)famous vibes to either direction, but I don't like it how much he seems to have been reading and pondering the rules. It's always a disturbing when somebody appears for the first time on Day1 and gives a very enlightened and calm impression.
Shasta - hiding behind banter and not replying points made against him. And what is this Nilp-thingy? I get the feeling that an innocent would be more worried ergo involved at this point.
Ewie - seems to have bad conscience, see what I said above. But I also said I won't vote him without a good reason and I'm not sure if this counts as one.

This made me rearrange my thoughts a bit, but I'm not any closer to a decision of whom to vote. Feels like it will be a tough choice...


edit: xed with 2x Nog, 1xLeg, 1xBog (sorry had to make it rhyme!)

[satansaloser2005]

And I'm not even on Lommie's list.

On the contrary, Lommie dear, I just don't like it when people cry 'doom!' and everyone freaks out so much that they overreact at stuff () and we have chaos. Let's remember that we're in trouble, but that the wolves are all in a similar position and thus won't be too overconfident (as a whole anyway), at least for now, and leave it at that. Otherwise you're just spreading panic.

[Thinlómien]

So, Nogrod, everybody who commented on Wilwa or Nerwen (with the exception of Kitanna) is suspicious? *scratches head*

Sally, I'm sorry I forgot you, and I don't get how it happened - probably I was thinking of you too much. You'd go to the "suspiciousish" category because I think you make weird (as in "don't make sense") posts and wheel/weasel/wheeze/whuzz/buzz/buzzle/cuddle/whatever around a lot.

And I don't really think the wolves are in trouble more than us. They also have 1/3 chance of winning, like us. But I would be less worried if I was a wolf than I am now - even if they have the other pack to give them trouble, they have all these nice gifts and (like I said earlier) excuses to seem reasonable on the thread, which are things any wolf would be happy about.

Or maybe it's just that I can't believe the wolves could feel threatened too, not threatened by us at least. Maybe by the other pack. Gah, these dynamics are confusing me.

But somehow still you insisting it must be depressing for wolves makes me think you are a wolf who is depressed.

[satansaloser2005]

Or an ordo who's oppressed. Either way, really.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So, Nogrod, everybody who commented on Wilwa or Nerwen (with the exception of Kitanna) is suspicious? *scratches head*

Well, more or less so... I'm not too relaxed with Kit either.

And should I add that those who skipped the discussion alltogether are the most suspicious?

[Thinlómien]

Gaaargh.

Okies. Sally-pudding, you shall have the benefit of doubt for toDay.

Boro's last post looks good.

I said I wanted to give Ewie a Day2 if he doesn't do anything too bad.

I don't really have even weak points against Morsul.


So that leaves

++Shasta

It feels bad to vote him with him having posted so little this far, but no can do. The little he has posted hasn't quite impressed me. You can have a look at what I've said about him this far for I don't want to recap, but most of all he doesn't seem to put much effort into this, which I would see as wolvish. Would a wolf really care so much whether we lynch an innocent or a wolf from the other pack? probably not as long as his mates are safe and he himself is not incriminated in the process...

Good night people, I'm going now.


edit: xed with Wilwa and Nog

[satansaloser2005]

Ya know, fair point. What is Shasta up to? Nutter.

[Isabellkya]

Uhm.. I had not liked the way Legate connected himself to Nog, because it felt like he was buttering up Nog. He was being a tattle tale, and immediately pointing the finger in a direction away from himself all at the same time. 'Neener neener, you better watch out, the big bad policy lyncher is coming!'

It feels like you Lommy are doing the same thing, however to myself. 'If I bet right now, I'd bet on Izzy.' One of those 'If I do not suspect them, then they probably won't suspect me'.

Did you just reveal as one of three possible Seers, Nog?

I agree with Wilwa. If Nog were a wolfSeer, he could easily just kill her during the Night.


I am getting confused by the false voting.. ?


X'd withe verything after #106.