T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I must say that I didn't really believe this will happen, but as it's been said, at least there was one less kill than there might have been (resp. two less, although in such a case there would be at least one dead Wolf). If I were to find something positive about the situation, it's that a) there's been this both-packs-doing the same, which, if they are attacking Nogrod toNight again, will reduce the kills and with good luck one of the packs might be eliminated by a few Days (like by two Days), so there will be no double Night kills - that's not so much of a consolation, but anyway; b) such a thing will not repeat itself (at least not without at least one Wolf going down as well), c) there are still two Unicorns, so there are effectively +2 innocents in the game still.

Anyway, yesterDay was luck, for that matter, looking from the light of it, maybe Nogrod was really right to choose to act at this moment rather than later, because looking at the last Night's events, he might have been as well dead by now if he didn't reveal. So, good job, Nog! And maybe the timing was good too, as there was not much time for discussion (and I do not pity the unanimous voting list, as, honestly, we won't learn *that* much from the votes anyway with this kind of... people in the village).

That said, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. There is like a tiny possibility that he might be a WolfSeer, but it's basically illogical, as in a game like this there is NO reason for pretending to be a Seer in order to survive, as somebody will always want to kill you sooner or later (and if you are fake, somebody will counter-reveal). Unless he'd be really playing it kamikaze in hope that the game will end in two Days or something, but I don't believe that'd happen. And we'll see for 100% toMorrow, I'd just hope to think that the Ranger had bluffed.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I doubt anyone is surprised Sally was a lover, she practically admitted it yesterDay with the whole "I'm not on any team thing". Kind of surprised then that Nerwen hunted her, I suppose she must have not seen what I saw.

Interesting to note, as I have never noticed anything at all. That said, you spoke about Anti-Lover possibly coming forth, indeed AL is basically the last Ordo remaining (well, and the Unicorn, sort of), but I wonder if that makes any sense, because by people revealing, we are also making things easier for the Wolves. And then it's only a matter of strategy from their part and I doubt they would leave Innocents alone totally.

Shasta does not get a revenge kill, right?

Wait, so there are no Ordos at this point anymore? Wonderful. But that'd mean there was only one Ordo to begin with? (Poor Morsul )

What I find quite curious, however, is the choice of Nerwen by both packs, I think I will look through yesterDay. As in: was there no other choice for any of them?

I don't think there's a good deal to know whom Lommy dreamed about, but I am not sure if that knowledge would be any good to us either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sorry about that, Sally (and Shasta).
I thought your lover-hinting seemed too obvious to be real.

*is an idiot*

*a dead idiot*

*shuts up*

And now, okay, even though I feel I should not quote dead people, I feel like a total idiot as well, because I haven't noticed any lover hints at all, where everybody else seems to have noticed.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Sallycakes

MY LOVE! *attack!glomps, holds onto you tightly*

*gags*

Originally Posted by Legate

That said, you spoke about Anti-Lover possibly coming forth, indeed AL is basically the last Ordo remaining (well, and the Unicorn, sort of), but I wonder if that makes any sense, because by people revealing, we are also making things easier for the Wolves. And then it's only a matter of strategy from their part and I doubt they would leave Innocents alone totally.

Well, I wouldn't call them an ordo, that implies they're on the village's side, which technically they are not, they're on their own, especially now that the Lovers are almost all dead.

I don't think a LommySeerWolf would be too obvious about her dreams, though I suppose it depends on the dream. Could be that she dreamt of Nerwen and that's why she said the whole "lynch her" thing. But really I doubt the evil seer made any hint, atleast regarding her dream, that could be helpful.

Another thought though, considering the last game I wouldn't be surprised if both wolf seers dreamt of Nerwen Night 1, and that's why both sides went for her last Night.

*really wants Nogs dream now plz*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm so confused as to why the dead people are posting on the thread but I'm not against it.

I was wondering about that myself. No doubt it's part of a diabolical plan of the moddess to keep us utterly confused.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said, I am inclined to trust Nogrod. There is like a tiny possibility that he might be a WolfSeer, but it's basically illogical, as in a game like this there is NO reason for pretending to be a Seer in order to survive, as somebody will always want to kill you sooner or later (and if you are fake, somebody will counter-reveal).

I think it speaks even better for Nog now, as we know one of the Seer!wolves was Lommy. That reduces the odds of his being evil.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

What I find quite curious, however, is the choice of Nerwen by both packs, I think I will look through yesterDay. As in: was there no other choice for any of them?

It's possible that, with Nog being guarded as they might think, they just saw her as a logical second choice. It is a rather remarkable coincidence that they both picked her though. .

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't think there's a good deal to know whom Lommy dreamed about, but I am not sure if that knowledge would be any good to us either.

I think trying to divine her dream is basically not useful to us. For what it's worth, maybe it was Shasta. That's who she voted for, I think.

[wilwarin538]

Just saw this:

c) there are still two Unicorns, so there are effectively +2 innocents in the game still.

If the wolfUnicorn dies we get another innocent right? So I get the feeling that that wolf pack is really protecting their Unicorn, because I doubt they want to lose one of their own and create another innocent at the same time. Our Unicorn, well if they stay alive cool, cause that's just like having an ord, if they die than we get another innocent, potentially with a gift like hunter or seer, depending on who's dead when the Unicorn dies. So really it wouldn't be all bad if our Unicorn gets killed, we won't be any further behind regarding numbers of innocents, and we could be potentially ahead regarding how many gifteds are around (getting another seer or hunter back for example).

Anyway, I wouldn't say there are +2 innocents at this time, we could potentially get 1 more innocent if the wolfUnicorn dies, but if ours does than our number of innocents stays the same.

Originally Posted by Legate

Wait, so there are no Ordos at this point anymore? Wonderful. But that'd mean there was only one Ordo to begin with? (Poor Morsul)

I just love this. Cause everyone is acting like an Ord, when no one is one. We're just all a bunch of liers aren't we? (except Nog and Shasta though, and well I'm not really, but you guys obviously don't have to believe that )

Originally Posted by ModdieLottie

Oh, and for all you people who aren't a Lover:

Muahaha.

*glares*

x'ed with Inzil, yay someone's here!!!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Inzil

For what it's worth, maybe it was Shasta. That's who she voted for, I think.

That's possible too, and I'm sure the wolves are loving that the Lovers are dead(ish) cause that's, well, lots of death.

But yeah, she only had 1 dream, and it likely wasn't hinted too at all. Innocent seers hint because they can't communicate to their people directly, evil seers don't have to do that because the people on their side they can just PM with, no reason to hint about their dreams to the other team(s).



edit: fixed was to wasn't, cause it made no sense the other way

[wilwarin538]

Just letting everyone know that I have to work today and my shift ends well after DL, and I likely won't be able to come on at work. So my vote will come in less than 4 hours, and than that will be all from me.

[Boromir88]

I have a little time on my lunch break to say a few things. One being I'm going to be at the school verrrry late today. I don't think I'll be able to get back here until about 7, so please don't leave me lots of drivel to sift through 2 hours before the DL? Kthanks.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Lommy was a Seer!wolf, not the village Seer. I'm not sure why you think it's possible she may have dreamed of Izzy based on that quote. Why would Lommywolf say something positive about someone she had dreamed? She would only want to lynch or Night-kill them.

She could have been laying the foundations for a fake seer reveal later (I think TEW said this already?), but I don't see much of a point in the whole thing. As Pitch said yesterday, why would it be the wolf-seers hinting about their dreams? They can communicate with other packmates, and I can imagine one of the other wolves looking like the seer as a decoy, but not the wolf-seers. Besides, what good is it trying to scower through Lommy's posts to try to find some vague hint about her one dream? It all looks like a red-herring to get us distracted by a virtually meaningless subject, and I suspect those doing it the most. With half you lot being evil now, I like my chances.

The only thing I could gleam from Lommy's posts are Shasta was probably innocent because of her vote for him. However, that's moot now.

As far as Nog, I seriously did not doubt you were the real seer at all yesterday (ok, that's a lie. Perhaps I did a little...think you were the wolf-hunter giving up a member of the rival pack and trying to get the real seer out so you kill him/her). I was hoping to stage a fight between us, and make it look like I'd go against you if you weren't attacked yesterday. However, seeing as it looks like no one is jumping for that bait, and are going to be content with trying their luck at killing you tonight....

I doubted, and hence my frustration, what the heck you were doing. I was under the impression with this many wolves the seer would want to get as many dreams as possible and not come out and reveal for no reason on Day 1. I see why you did it now though, I vastly under-estimated the amount of death that was possible at night. I mean the packs went for the same one and still look what happened!

The fortunate thing is, since they did go for Nerwen, they can't and won't trust eachother. Also, looks like we have 2 different packs, but both operating under the same ideas/reasons, and hence both went after the same person.

[Kitanna]

I went back to read all the posts AFTER Nogrod pegs Lommy as a wolf in the hopes maybe one of her packmates slipped up. I ignored posts by Shasta, Sally, Nerwen, and Morsul.

Wilwa: Believes him to be the seer, seeing that it makes sense for an innocent seer to reveal as he did rather than run the risk of being killed in the night. In a later post she defends Nogrod's reveal from Sally and Boro.

Legate: Placed Nogrod in his yellow area, but he also admitted he didn't have the time to recheck the thread before turning in for the night. He placed Lommy in his green section. At the end of his post he added an edit about having seen what Nogrod revealed.

Boro: Asks if a wolf seer would reveal so soon. Puts forth several possibilities to other avenues. (such as wolf seer trying to look good, non-wolf seer trying to benefit his pack, I'm guessing he means lead the village away from the real wolf seer.) In a later post explains why he didn't want to jump on board and trust Nogrod without considering other options.

Izzy: Seems to agree with Wilwa and trusts Nogrod. Feels Legate is buttering Nog up.

Zil: Trusts Nogrod it looks like, but finds it unusual that he revealed when he was in no danger.

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

TEW: Knows it's a seer claim, nothing else really said.

Conclusions:
Wilwa: At first I was wary because she so readily agreed with Nogrod. But as I read on in her posts after that initial one she made good points as to why an innocent Nogrod would reveal so soon. Her continued defense of his reveal speaks more innocent to me than wolfish.

Boro: I like that Boro considered other options as to Nogrod being a wolf revealing to look good. I'm inclined to trust for this because he continued to defend this position that he didn't want to enthusiastically jump into believing Nogrod without giving it some thought. The fact that Wilwa and Boro both felt strongly enough in one direction or the other that they kept defending their points rather than just agreeing and voting makes me think more innocent at this point.

Legate: Didn't have time to really react in full to the reveal, but his brief reaction was suspect to me. He immediately glomped onto Nogrod it looked like and had a sort of "oh darn I was wrong about you and Lommy" all along.

TEW, Zil, Pitch, and Izzy: All are hard to read not giving much away after Nogrod's reveal. For the most part all fall into "Nogrod is telling the truth because why would he lie so early?" category. Legate falls into this too, but his "you were right, I was wrong" edit in his vote post seemed forced.

Unfortunately I can't come home from work on my lunch break to vote. There hasn't been a whole lot of activity today either and I was in a time crunch so I could only focus on a small number of posts. But here's my vote.

++ Legate

Of all those that reacted after the reveal of Nogrod his seemed the most forced. It looked as though he was trying to pull himself closer to Nogrod and distant himself from Lommy. Possible packmates?

Best of luck for the rest of the day.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwa #176

Our Unicorn, well if they stay alive cool, cause that's just like having an ord, if they die than we get another innocent, potentially with a gift like hunter or seer, depending on who's dead when the Unicorn dies.

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Originally Posted by Kit #180

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

Actually, that's two different things:
1. The part about the stupidity of getting an innocent lynched with a fake reveal was my reason for believing that Lommy was indeed a wolf; and if whosoever gives us a wolf, we lynch the wolf and worry about the Seer-claimant later.
2. My reason to believe that Nog is a Seer (and not a masquerading Hunter or something else) is simple psychology - as in, when I saw he claimed to have dreamed Lommy I immediately thought "Of course he would", it's just like him to pick her for his first dream.
That last post of mine was made in a bit of a hurry before going to bed, and I was quite tired by then, so maybe I didn't express myself that clearly.
Now the remaining question is whether Nog is the village Seer or the surviving wolf-Seer; only time will tell, I suppose, but as long as we don't know, let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams. If his wolves conveniently happen to be all from the same pack, however, that might be reason to worry about his alignment.
Just to make myself completely understood: I honestly wish and hope Nog is our true Seer, I'm just not prepared to utterly rule out the other possibility, however unlikely it may seem.

Going to look a bit at Lommy's interactions now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Ok, I think you may have misunderstood me, or the rules, unless I don't get the rules maybe. The way I see it let's say 3 innocents are dead: A was an Ordo, B was a Hunter, C was a Seer. The Unicorn then dies. Lottie puts the names of A, B, and C in a hat and picks one out, that is the person who comes back to life. Then to decide the role that person comes back with she puts all of the "dead" roles into a hat (so Ordo, Hunter, Seer) and then that's the role of the person who comes back.

So for example if the Unicorn was to die toDay either Sally, Nerwen or Shasta would come back, and their possible roles would be Ord (cause of Morsul) or Hunter, since you can't have a lone lover so that wouldn't be considered.

So yes, like Nog is Seer now, if he dies toNight and can't give us his dream, but then the Unicorn dies and let's say he comes back as the Hunter, he'll have a different role, but could still share that other dream with us. So the wolves would certainly be concerned for the Unicorn to die, since it could create more gifteds, and if their own Unicorn dies than that's even worse since they could lose a packmate and create another gifted all at the same time.

Or am I completely misinterpreting this role?

Originally Posted by Pitch

let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams

I also said that not thinking that a seer would reveal Day 1. This would definitely have applied if the seer reveal had been later, but I seriously have a hard time believing an evil seer would reveal on the first Day. Especially since he had no risk of being lynched, and (if he was evil) would have a wolfRanger to protect him at Night. So I think because of that we can believe him.

Goodness, I really hope Nog shows up before I have to leave.