T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Nogrod]

That was fun! *bowstoLottie*

And looking at all these "revelations" one just realises how close it was, so many times, to take the game into a totally another direction. So small margins...

And my apologies to Lommy also online (done that in RL already). But I just had to check her first as she and Greenie (both my daughters, to anyone who doesn't know it yet) are to me the hardest to fathom as I tend to either over- or under-suspect them everytime.

Legate I had a hunch over, mainly from his carefulness (which he always is - and very skilful indeed!) and of his relation to Lommy. First I thought they were in cahoots but later I started to think it more probable they were probing each other because they were on different sides.

On Day2 I came actually so confident of Kit being a wolf (because of her sudden and poorly reasoned attack on Legate - and I of course knew he was a wolf that time but she didn't know I knew - so I thought she knew Legate was on the opposing side) that I didn't feel it important enough to dream of her. But looking how Pitch trailed her suspicion being careful enough not to look like he was actually "driving" it made me very suspicious of him of being Kit's mate (with Lommy as the third one on their team - heh, the one who checked Legate on N1 of course, and that was why Kit & Pitch knew he was an enemy... )

So as you see: one can pick the right people from the way they act and build totally believable explanations for their acts based on totally wrong reasoning!

Well done Ladybugs!

And you really had some tough luck there Aphids! I just don't understand how Boro got lynched in the first place...

But the unluckiest of all I think were us innocents: such a bloodbath! Looking at the carnage from N1 I was really happy I had revealed already on D1. It was just as messy as I feared it could be. But well fought, looking at the circumstances. And don't worry Izzy, it tends to go that way: when you risk as the ranger the wolves seem to act straightforwardly and vice versa. It just tends to go that way.

[Thinlómien]

Yay! Go Zil and Pitch! *hugs them and does a bug-y dance*

Yes, for me this game wasn't the most pleasant, because on Night1 I was like "yay I'm playing ww! yay nice pack! yay I dreamt of the seer!" and on Day1 I was like "yay I'm playing ww! yay I'm quite convincingly innocent-looking! oh sh**, Nogrod dreamt of me!!!!!!!!!!!"

Anyway, I'm glad if I gave some ideas in the Nightly discussions and created confusion that my packmates could use to their advantage.

Thanks for the game, Lottie. I have to confess I didn't read anything properly after I died, but looks like people were playing well. It was fun as long as it lasted!

ps. *points at signature*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hey, it's a seriously intimidating name if you happen to be an aphid.

See? Prophetic names, they were.

Heh, I forgot about their interspecies antagonism.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Bwahahahaha, mine is an evil laugh, etc. (Also, thanks to Lottie herself of course for letting me/telling me to have fun post-mortem. I did in fact enjoy myself, even if I didn't do a whole lot of consequence in the game.)

I still say Charlie the Unicorn's friends are downright disturbing.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Haha. I had thought about forgoing the protection on Nog Night 2, but whenever I gamble, the opposite tends to happen. So, I figured protecting him was better than losing him. And just envisioned the Princess Bride in my head.

I don't think I could take that gamble as a Ranger. 'A bird in the hand'...etc.

Originally Posted by Loslote

And then their titles kept including Ladybug Pack.

Well, with you dealing with two packs we wanted to make sure there was no confusion.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

That's gonna stick with me for good now, I guess. I'll just have to live with it...

Well, "Mr. Agreeable" isn't so bad. at least we aren't calling you "Stan".

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But looking how Pitch trailed her suspicion being careful enough not to look like he was actually "driving" it made me very suspicious of him of being Kit's mate (with Lommy as the third one on their team - heh, the one who checked Legate on N1 of course, and that was why Kit & Pitch knew he was an enemy...

And there I was so sure I'd be your likely dream, with the way you were attacking my suspicion of TEW (supported by Pitch!).

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Yes, for me this game wasn't the most pleasant, because on Night1 I was like "yay I'm playing ww! yay nice pack! yay I dreamt of the seer!" and on Day1 I was like "yay I'm playing ww! yay I'm quite convincingly innocent-looking! oh sh**, Nogrod dreamt of me!!!!!!!!!!!"

Indeed I thought you were looking quite good on Day 1. All that work, only to be taken out by the work of a Seer on a mission.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hi there too, and let me say I'm quite delighted to be a member of this particular pack!

I'm the WereUnicorn and was told to 'try very very hard not to die', for obvious reasons. I suppose that makes Zil our RangerWolf - but I've got to admit I'm a little confused as to the definitive version of the Rules.

I was thinking the same. In my first game as a wolf, I discovered that I find wolf-on-wolfing much easier than making cases against known innocents...

Well, if it was me, my first pick would be Nerwen (especially after last game), but Nog or Kit would be good choices as well.
What's quite nice is that while you can't see the gifts of the enemy wolves, you can still see innocent gifteds (if I understand the Rules correctly), which is something to keep in mind after Day1. (Not that you need to be told, but I just thought I'd mention it anyway.

I'm asking myself what should be our strategy towards the other pack, if we can sniff them out - keep them around for a while, let them help us reduce the number of innocents but risk getting bitten by the mouth we're feeding, or get rid of them in time before they can help the innocents reduce our numbers? (It's more or less the same question as with a Werebear.) In the long run, of course, we want to Kill Them All...

That's all for now, but if you'd like to talk, I guess I'll be awake for another hour or so.

Greetings,
Pitch

Meeting and greeting, talking of possible dream-picks for Lommy, and how to treat the Aphids.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Sounds like the logical thing to do when you're a Seer who can't reveal... (But see my last about the strategy question.)
À propos, it just occurs to me that the Innocent Seer may have a hard time if they choose to reveal - even if they get a wolf lynched, the other innocents have no way of telling their own Seer from a wolvish one. That could be used to our favour, if one of us has the bad luck to get dreamed.

Seconded.

-Pitch

Discussing what to do if Lommy dreamed a rival wolf. Didn't need to spend so much time on it, in retrospect. And I like that about it being hard for the real Seer to reveal.

And of course:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If we manage to do it easily, let's get Nogrod lynched toMorrow: he is the goodie seer.

Otherwise, let's just let him be and kill him on Night2. No panic about getting him lynched though, we have plenty time and now we know to be wary...

I'm off to sleep now, so good night and good Day! See you around on the thread...

-Lommiewolf

Plenty of time. So we thought...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As I said in my last, my feeling is that two packs or one make less of a difference to the Ranger logistics than the question of his alignment, but all that is more or less academic. If I were the Ranger, I'd protect him, period.

My only worry is that the other pack thinks the same, nobody goes after him and it turns out later he wasn't guarded after all, in which case I'll eat my keyboard (which has already got some fang marks from previous games). But yeah, the more I think about it the more I agree with you. Let's keep him for next Night.

Actually, I'm sure you've noticed there's hardly anybody in this village who isn't either a wolf or gifted or endowed with a secret role. But good point about Nerwen - if I were the Seer, she'd have been my first pick. And it would be nice if we could spoil Nog's second dream by killing his target and having their role revealed before he can do it.

OK, among these three, I'd choose Nerwen - mainly for sporting reasons (Tewie hasn't played for a long time, and Boro died early in his last few games), but also because she's the most dangerous.

Another thing - just in case one of us gets dreamed next, the other obviously shouldn't make any stupid rescue attempts, rather push what's falling and see to their own survival. But after that, the survivor might try to discredit Nog as a wolf-seer who only delivers wolves from the rival pack. Needs to be done carefully, though.

And that's it for now. See you toMorrow on the thread.
Pitch

Of course, what to do about Nog was the main topic of discussion. Once we'd decided to let him be, that was our thought process in choosing who we would kill. I find it truly amazing both packs ended up with the same kill-choice, completely independant of one another. That must simply speak for Nerwen's fear-factor.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, now the reading is over...

Yes you were! Quite brilliant.

1. We're not going to lose. *insert 'whistling in the dark' smiley* (Seriously - of course we may, but we haven't lost yet, and the other pack is not much better off than we are.)
2. If we do, I don't care to whom - i.e. may the best have the victory, whoever it is.

That's about the only explanation that makes any sense at all. She wants to survive, and all three parties may need her as a voting ally in the endgame, therefore she thinks we can't afford to kill/lynch her.
(Actually, I had the weird idea to fake-reveal as the AL myself - what with my interactions w/ sally & Shasta, it might not look quite implausible; but if wilwa decides to 'spill' toMorrow...)

Thus saith the Lord of Werewolves: Thou shalt not suffer a Seer to live. Or so I believe.
What makes you think the other pack won't leave him alone thinking we'll go after him?
As to who the other pack could be, I don't buy Nog's theory that Kit = the other wolf-Seer, I don't think she'd jeopardize her Ranger like that. Anyway, I'd like to avoid their Hunter while we can.
Going to look at the thread again, and I'll try to separate what my ordo-self thought from what my wolf-self thinks...
Till later,
- Pitch

I saw that as a less-than stellar performance on Day 2 from me. Still worried about Nog, and whether we should go after him. I thought seriously of leaving Nog alone, hoping the Aphids would get him, and going for Boro. Not because I necessarily thought he was a wolf, but because he was an unknown factor, and would be fairly trailless. I wonder who he was hunting that Night.
Also, Wilwa was an obvious topic.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not that sure you'd be Nog's next dream. It could be me, or it's possible he'll check one of Boro or Izzy to make sure he's not overlooking something; or even wilwa. He may think that a case can be made against either of us without the support of a dream. Not that I'd bet my life or yours on it (which is what we'll be doing if we leave him alone), but it's possible.
Anyway, what can happen if we go for Nog and the Aphids go for one of us? You'll protect yourself, and if they kill me and my role is revealed, my little wolf-on-wolf against you could make the innocents think better of you.*
Let's face it, it's not awfully likely that both of us will survive to the end. But the same goes for them. Right now, the innocents/non-wolves have the numeric advantage.

About who is what - I couldn't glean that much from the thread (which is because I didn't sleep too well last night, had a long work-day and am rather tired now), but I quite like your idea about Boro + Izzy = Aphids. Some guesswork, rather hunch-based (and hoping to channel something remotely like Shasta's psychic powers):
Boro = Aphid-Hunter
Izzy = Aphid-Seer
and the innocents (knowing Nog=Seer and assuming wilwa=AL):
TEWie = Unicorn
Kit = Ranger.
Hmmm... if I'm right, I'd say, leave Kit alone. If she guarded Nog last Night (which I think likely), she'll guard herself toNight. And we don't want to kill the Unicorn (yet), do we?
So either Nog (like you said, at least we'd know what the Ranger has been up to), or Izzy.

*Forgot - with a known innocent back from the dead, the chances of either pack winning would get rather bleak... (That whole Unicorn business really sucks!)

Bah. Any last thoughts before I sink into happy oblivion?
-Pitch

Pitch was spot on about Nog's dream, as it turned out. He had Izzy and Kit mixed up, but very close on the roles!
And we decided we couldn't ignore Nog.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Plus if the Aphid Seer has dreamed either of us, xe'll know not to touch me. Well, hope dies last.

At this point, we had both forgotten the Aphid Seer couldn't see our gifts.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You've got a point - TEWie's somehow felt very unicornish to me until toNight, and considering the shaky reasoning I can indeed see her Legate vote as wolf-on-wolf; but after that backfired the way it did, do you think she'd have risked the same again with Boro? Hmmm... with Nog removed, and Boro being their Hunter, perhaps.
But no matter - the only one we can be pretty sure is not a Unicorn is wilwa; she's both a safe target and a precarious factor while alive.

I'd been trying to work out who the final Aphid was, TEW or Kit. That wolf-on-wolf of Kit's did throw us off for a while. It was only in comparison with TEW that she really started looking like a wolf.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Now for thoughts on TEW:

I've been looking back over the thread, searching for points of interest on him.
I noted that after I put up my 'suspicion' post on TEW, Legate said:

.

That was after I had responded to something else he'd brought up about me, about why Nerwen would have been a 'logical' choice for a kill. If TEW was his packmate, it would have been quite easy and safe for him to have latched onto your criticism of me, with that plus what he already had.

Nog was an innocent, and is a very shrewd judge when it comes to wolves (obviously!). He thought TEW looked innocent.

In TEW's response to me that Day, he actually agreed with many of the points I'd made, and overall seemed rather aggrieved and dispirited. Not out of the question for wolvish behaviour, but still: he didn't go on the immediate offensive, as I would have.

The next Day, TEW came out swinging:

He was certainly right about three of the four he names as wolves!
It concerned me somewhat that this was such a change in tone, almost as if he'd been discussing the matter with someone. But then, maybe he'd just been thinking it over and decided to be more agressive. And he himself said he wouldn't be around most of the Day, so it would make sense he might vote early.

His next post was this:

This feels innocentish. I see no reason he would bring up Legate in association with himself, if they were mates.

He showed up one more time, late.

Backing off suspicion of me (after already giving me a vote ).

All in all, I think he really does look innocent. And if he isn't a wolf, Kit is.

What do you think?

-Inzil

Where I became convinced TEW wasn't likely to be the Aphid.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Sound analysis of TEW, thanks - and my gut feeling about him from last Night agrees with it. He's also been much too extrovert, all in all, for what I'd expect from a Seerwolf.
But does it really matter which of them is which?
I've been doing simulations (with jelly bears of different colours) until my brain smoked, but it all boils down to this: the situation being what it is, with the two Unicorns, I don't see how it's possible for either pack to win this game at this point, unless the Aphid Seer (let's just assume it's Kit) makes a suicidal mistake toNight.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I had a PM I was going to send you with a lot of different scenarios laid out, but I started getting confused.
Anyway, it may not be so set in stone what the Aphid will do toNight.
I remembered something from the Admin Thread:

They can't know which of us is the Were! I think that gives us a sizable advantage.

Does that alter your perceptions of our chances?

-Inzil

And the revelation of the rule we'd both forgotten, that induced us to throw caution to the wind and go after our likeliest Aphid candidate.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I still say Charlie the Unicorn's friends are downright disturbing.

So they are, now that I've found the time to look at all of sally's links.

Originally Posted by the above

Well, "Mr. Agreeable" isn't so bad. at least we aren't calling you "Stan".

The latter's taken (sort of), but in RL I'm more or less Stan to my beloved's Ollie...

Originally Posted by -"-

And there I was so sure I'd be your likely dream, with the way you were attacking my suspicion of TEW (supported by Pitch!).

I told you he wouldn't need a dream to go for you...

Originally Posted by -"-@Lommy

Indeed I thought you were looking quite good on Day 1.

So did I, I don't know I'd have seen anything furry about you if I'd been an innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Legate I had a hunch over, mainly from his carefulness (which he always is - and very skilful indeed!) and of his relation to Lommy. First I thought they were in cahoots but later I started to think it more probable they were probing each other because they were on different sides.

Relation! Once again wonderful when people suspect you for completely imagined and thus illogical (from your point of view) reasons: There never was any!

Nevertheless, it was quite fun to play after a long time, I must say, and well, had it not been for the unfortunate Seer incident (and later for the unfortunate incident with Boro after I was dead), I would have been quite happy. But well, the game did not seem really very unbalanced in the end, provided that Nogrod however has done a remarkable job (although again - 50-50 to dream of a Wolf is not so difficult). Something small to the innocents' side and they could have even won (well, if the Anti-Lover joined them, they just as well could have).

So thanks for the moddies (and the rest of annoying sallys ) and all the players, including my poor packmates - it was much fun even for the short time there.

And one note: my repeated expressions of paranoia about Pitchwife was genuine, I knew from the beginning something is terribly wrong with him. I was actually thinking that he might be the other Wolf Seer, but in any case, I knew he was a Wolf. There was no doubt about that.