WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

As lovely as your 'theory' sounds, Pitch. It looks more like you being a wolf jumping at a tasty bit of meat.

You listed it yourself. BG listed Loslote as 'relatively innocent' in #69. Three posts later, she voted for Loslote. I don't see that as a possible 'noobish' mistake; more akin to noobish wolf yes. In a span of three posts, you somehow forget who you think is innocent, and who is suspicious? Her explanation for how Loslote ended up in that category.. was rather lackluster - not that it entirely mattered at that point.

It seems like you don't fully comprehend my reasons for voting for BG and the implications. If someone makes a mistake like she did - it implies her list of suspicions was fabricated. She did copy it from Loslote. Who would need a fabricated list? Innocent's don't. But metamorphs do.

No, I fully understand your reason, and agree what BG did there would have looked rather wolvish to me as well at the time. But voting her right away without giving her a chance to explain herself?

And I'm not saying that we should concentrate on the BG voters exclusively and ignore everybody else. Like Rikae said, innocents can make bad votes too. But I wouldn't bet that there was no morph at all in that wagon. And given that votes are the best evidence we get in WW, along with the Night-kills, pretending it never happened or blaming it all on BG herself is going to accomplish zip.

[Rikae]

Ok, ok. So Sally was evil after all. Ha, I thought so! Now - Shasta and Izzy, no, I wasn't watching the last game, but suspecting someone for being similar to the wolf they were in their first game in their second game doesn't seem quite right, does it? How would you distinguish between Evil-BG and BG in general? Even a fabricated list, as Izzy puts it, doesn't seem that suspicious in day one, nor would a vote based on a quickly formed and thin suspicion. Zil's explanation seems fairly plausible, Shasta and Noia I'm unsure about, but Izzy's defensiveness, and the hastiness of her vote yesterDay, really sets off alarms. On the other hand, Wilwa's distancing of herself from that wagon seemed overly enthusiastic/too good to be true, especially since she voted for a (fellow?) morph. The way she underscores it toDay, and her seeming frustration, could easily be morphish, too - frustration that her plan backfired.
Lottie and Pitch are looking fairly sensible for the time being. Wintywinty's theory about Eomer doesn't really make sense: the morphs knew the seer was dead, and even if Eomer happened to make a few lucky guesses, they would have known those were guesses only and probably avoided leaving an obvious trail by killing him.

Edit: X'd with Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts about Noia

#30 Tells Eomer to stop unreasoned accusations (after Zil and I had already challenged Eomer on them, therefore an obvious and easy thing to say). Said Rikae was metamorph scum. (I first read the *eyetwitch* there as a , indicating joking, but looking back it was rather his IC face tick - so no joking at all? Unreasoned accusation by himself, in the same post?)

#99 Responds to Eomer's 'omgus' (what kind of newfangled fleet jargon is that?), explains his RL time issues, agrees with Eomer about sally. Votes BG for her Lottie vote, which didn't match the list, and suspecting Eomer after laughing him off as crazy earlier.

#105 Further comments on BG: not satisfied by wilwa's explanation; Lottie 'pressuring people to vote' un-morphish because we have to avoid modkill. Fair point.

All in all, he's a hard one. Hands-on approach and some good points, but telling Eomer not to make unreasoned accusations while doing it himself? His vote on BG looks the most well-reasoned of the four, but I gather he's an experienced player, if new to the Fleet, and therefore perfectly capable of making a good-looking case against an innocent if he's a morph. Also, his #99 looks to me like he was just waiting for BG to screw up and grateful to take the chance when he got it. Makes me very wary of him.

[Nerwen]

Someone had to die this way

Quartermaster Keeper of Dol Guldur, or Mira as she was known to her friends, sat at the helm console with her head in her hands.

Since the death of the false Lieutenant Sally, all the work of navigation as well as piloting the ship had devolved upon her, and she was starting to feel the pressure. Not only that, but she had been friends with the navigator, so that the Night's discovery had shaken her to the core.

"I just can't take it any more!" she moaned. "I'm getting slammed by work... there's no-one I can trust anymore... it's all too much!" Mira whimpered and beat her head on the instrument panel, at first softly, then harder and harder, chanting, "Too much, too much, too much, too much..." The console exploded in a shower of sparks and flames. Mira was thrown back with terrific force, but it was not until they had put out the fires that swept the bridge that her shipmates were able to come to her aid.

By then, if there had ever been a chance to save her, it was much too late.

All they could do for Quartermaster Mira-Keeper was seal her into a pod, speak a few well-chosen words in her honour, and commit her body to space via the same airlock through which Blind Guardian and Eomer had recently departed.

Back on the bridge, Commander Inziladun surveyed the extensive damage. "Hmm. About how long do you think it will take to get everything running again, Loslote?"

The Chief Engineer launched into a flood of technical gibberish.

"In Terran?"

"Uh– well– that is to say... I don't know, sir."

Inziladun sighed. "I guessed as much. Moving onwards– who else knows how to steer the ship?"

Dead
Doctor Morsul –Medical Officer and Captain McNerwen. –shot by Traitor on Night One.
Ensign Blind Guardian– Tactical Officer. –Died in convulsions (Telepath).
Eomer –Security Officer. –Thrown out the airlock (Bounty Hunter).
Lieutenant Sally –Navigator. –Torn to pieces (Metamorph).
Chief Petty Officer Keeper of Dol Guldur –Quartermaster. –Killed by exploding console (Ordinary).

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts on Shasta:

#57 Some IC; doesn't buy Lottie's suspicion of wilwa, and says the post of wilwa's that Lottie called 'forced' wasn't so; suspects sally for her Nilp-vote; also suspects either Eomer or me, but isn't sure which (really?).

#64 Doesn't see why Eomer's suspicion of BG is suspicious (it wasn't in my eyes, only his lack of reasoning was), and isn't comfortable with BG himself; thinks he suspects me, but doesn't know why (really really?); says he's not the Telepath (we know that by now).

#78, #83, #86, #93, #98, #107 were all about BG and are already digested in my own #158.
(Bah, I keep forgetting that his vote x-ed with Izzy's, so scrap what I've said in #166 about him in terms of hiding in the middle of the bandwagon. Noia looks worse in that respect.)

#116 wonders about the Night-kills.

#117 wonders if we have a spaceborne Werebear.

#122 expresses his determination to fight Rikae for the post-count (not that she's going to win it anytime soon at the current rate!)

#124 reply to Rikae defending the BG votes based on BG's behaviour last game.

#127 still wondering about Night-kills, roles and a possible Werebear.

#132 comes to agree with Lottie's suspicion of wilwa:

Wilwa was also the first to point out that we wouldn't have to deal with false reveals (IIRC). She mentioned that it was "fantastic". Now, I've accused Lottie of this multiple times - reads on someone shouldn't depend on one word (and I happen to know that Vanessa's a very ebullient personality <3) but taken together the first thing I thought upon rereading was "she seemed awfully eager to point that out - wolf looking for citizen points?

Now sorry if I'm confusing something, but isn't that the same post of wilwa's which you earlier said 'wasn't forced'?

#133 reply to Lottie about wilwa suspicion, 'omgus', and rhetorical questions.

#138 reiterates that he voted BG for faulty reasoning in her vote, so his wasn't 'omgus'.

He's hard to pin down either way for me. Suspecting one of two people but not knowing which one and for what? His response to Lottie explaining his conversion to the wilwa suspicion sounds genuine in a way (and I happen to quite agree with said suspicion), but it's still a rather sudden change of mind at a time where he was being suspected by Lottie himself. I generally find it difficult to read him, so a third opinion would be appreciated.

(Speaking of wilwa: If you want me to believe in your innocence, don't just protest it - do something productive.)

(x-ed with the Captain and wilwa.)

[Pitchwife]

Oh Captain my Captain, am I right in assuming Keeper Mira was modfired? ("getting slammed by work", and it was an accident, with no killer involved)

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts about Lottie

I honestly intended to do a post-by-post analysis of our current Queen of the Post Count, but it would probably take me all evening, and I don't quite feel up to it at the moment. What worried me most about her (actually the only thing that worried me) is her involvement in the near-DL discussion about/with BG - it could be seen as increasing the pressure on BG and feeding the wagon without actually voting her (as she'd already voted me), or it could be seen as an innocent honestly questioning BG and trying to make up her mind. Taking in account my general impression of her and her performance toDay, I tend to think the latter. So I'm still more inclined to trust her (and I also happen to agree with her about her top suspects).


Thoughts about wintywinty
#145 Is playing at last.

#146 extensive quote of Fleet Regulations (thank you, I think we've all read that!).

#150 question about the Agents.

#155 tries to make sense of the Night-kill based on Eomer's suspicions (the first to try that, bonus points for that). Suspects me, Zil, and Noia based on Eomer's suspicion list and my own list at #49. Nothing wrong with that, except that an experienced wolf wouldn't have left that clear a trail (as Rikae said above).

Conclusion: Nothing morphish in him so far.

Thoughts on Zil:

He's been very laid back in general, almost keeping aloof, mostly rather reactions to others than taking initiative, but those reactions being balanced and reasonable - which is all very typically Zillish. Only points against him the possibly incriminating Night-kill and final vote for BG, but I liked his response to me about that. I also think a Zilmorph would tend to be a tad more aggressive, so I'm still leaning to trust him.

Thoughts on Rikae
#27 banter about fake reveals and secret roles, joking suspicions of sally and Eomer; not-so-joking suspicion of wilwa, serious point about Hunter reveals (although I've disputed it). Warning against jumping on her, or anybody, for flimsy reasons, which was a fair point at the time.

#120 agreed with Lottie on wilwa, found sally's Nilping 'fishy'; I concur.

#121 Post-Count Wars (try harder, my dear!).

#123 Berates the BG-voters while admitting it's easy for her as a non-voter to talk. I agree with her on both points, and include myself in the latter, of course.

#167 Further comments on the BG-wagon and wilwa's ostentative non-involvement in it (which had raised a number of eyebrows before). Took the words right out of my mouth.

Conclusion: nothing morphish so far. (Next thing I know she'll probably suspect me for agreeing with her too much. If so, be my guest.)

Thoughts about Izzy:

#52 IC banter, fake reveals entertaining, and a good point:

Thinking someone couldn't be a metamorph because 'a metamorph would never do something that suspicious, or that x' .. doesn't necessarily work. Because a metamorph is obviously capable of anything.. add to that the specific player..

Indeed.

#58 thinks sally should at least have had some kind of suspicion on some people, if not most. So she should.

#59 Question about DL.

#72, #74, #82, #92, were all about BG and digested in my #158.

#164 responds to my examination of the BG voters in a way that was very very defensive indeed, maybe bordering on omgus (if I'm getting the semantics of that term correctly). I'm not satisfied.

Conclusion: little participation for most of Day 1, some fair but obvious points, a hasty vote, and no satisfying response toDay. (Has she even acknowledged that BG was not a morph? A single 'Gah, I screwed up there' would have convinced me much more than the defense she's offered.) Tending rather morphish, but not my biggest concern toDay (I'm more worried about Noia, if anybody hasn't noticed).

And that's about everybody who's still alive, right?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

And I've noted the timing of your vote. I think wolves would be more likely to hide in the middle of a bandwagon than give an innocent the first or last vote (unless it's a bold Nerwolf), so that would speak in favour of you and Izzy and rather against Shasta and Noia.

Except that my vote X'ed with Izzy's. What I find interesting about this quote is that you yourself already noted this, Pitch, so it seems to me you're being very wishy-washy here. Much like a Morph trying to drum up another lynch candidate. I'd say if Wilwa is lynched and turns out to be a Morph, Pitch is a pretty good candidate for Morphism as well.

Originally Posted by Rikae

How would you distinguish between Evil-BG and BG in general?

That's true, Rikae, but I will say that the Beige Wolf confessed soon after things turned against her in the last game, and her "Oh crud, I did" actually did look like a confession to me (true, that was after my vote for her, but I still stand by the fact that there were more reasons to vote BG than there were anyone else at that point).

Originally Posted by Pitch

(Bah, I keep forgetting that his vote x-ed with Izzy's, so scrap what I've said in #166 about him in terms of hiding in the middle of the bandwagon. Noia looks worse in that respect.)

And now that I've read this, you can scrap the first part of this post.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now sorry if I'm confusing something, but isn't that the same post of wilwa's which you earlier said 'wasn't forced'?

You are, and it's not. Let me finish this post and I'll go get it for you.

[Pitchwife]

Quadruple posting? Come on, where is everybody?

OK, so we've got 2 Metamorphs left, +1 Traitor, + 1 secret role of hitherto undefined alignment (could be goodie, could be baddie, could be neutral, so little use worrying about them at the moment).

My candidates for being morphish (in order of suspiciousness): wilwa/ Noia, Shasta/Izzy.
I think it would make perfect sense for one of the morphs to stay ostensibly out of the BG wagon and the other to fuel it, more than both to participate in it. So if any of Noia, Shasta or Izzy turns out to be morphish, that would exonerate the other two (although one of them could still be the Traitor).

Given Shasta's conversion to the case against wilwa, it seems unlikely that they would be packmates together. It could of couse be wolf-on-wolf on Shasta's part, which would be quite daring as there's only two of 'em left; but it's the last wolf standing who wins the game, and I remember Zil and me did something of the like in Lottie's game- so not impossible. But any other combination seems more likely.

So that narrows it down to (in order of suspiciousness): wilwa/Noia, wilwa/Izzy, wilwa/Shasta.
On second thought (or third, or rather Nth), it just strikes me that wilwa may be the Traitor rather than a morph. Her safe vote for sally could have been a perfect way of avoiding to lynch either a morph or an innocent, couldn't it? If I'm right, her early point about the impossibilty of fake reveals in this game is positively hilarious.

(And wilwa, the point isn't that you voted a morph over the Seer, but that you voted a morph at a time when she had the chance of a snowflake in hell to be lynched. Get it?)

EDIT: x-ed with a bunch of Shastas.