WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Pitchwife]

Thoughts about Lottie

I honestly intended to do a post-by-post analysis of our current Queen of the Post Count, but it would probably take me all evening, and I don't quite feel up to it at the moment. What worried me most about her (actually the only thing that worried me) is her involvement in the near-DL discussion about/with BG - it could be seen as increasing the pressure on BG and feeding the wagon without actually voting her (as she'd already voted me), or it could be seen as an innocent honestly questioning BG and trying to make up her mind. Taking in account my general impression of her and her performance toDay, I tend to think the latter. So I'm still more inclined to trust her (and I also happen to agree with her about her top suspects).


Thoughts about wintywinty
#145 Is playing at last.

#146 extensive quote of Fleet Regulations (thank you, I think we've all read that!).

#150 question about the Agents.

#155 tries to make sense of the Night-kill based on Eomer's suspicions (the first to try that, bonus points for that). Suspects me, Zil, and Noia based on Eomer's suspicion list and my own list at #49. Nothing wrong with that, except that an experienced wolf wouldn't have left that clear a trail (as Rikae said above).

Conclusion: Nothing morphish in him so far.

Thoughts on Zil:

He's been very laid back in general, almost keeping aloof, mostly rather reactions to others than taking initiative, but those reactions being balanced and reasonable - which is all very typically Zillish. Only points against him the possibly incriminating Night-kill and final vote for BG, but I liked his response to me about that. I also think a Zilmorph would tend to be a tad more aggressive, so I'm still leaning to trust him.

Thoughts on Rikae
#27 banter about fake reveals and secret roles, joking suspicions of sally and Eomer; not-so-joking suspicion of wilwa, serious point about Hunter reveals (although I've disputed it). Warning against jumping on her, or anybody, for flimsy reasons, which was a fair point at the time.

#120 agreed with Lottie on wilwa, found sally's Nilping 'fishy'; I concur.

#121 Post-Count Wars (try harder, my dear!).

#123 Berates the BG-voters while admitting it's easy for her as a non-voter to talk. I agree with her on both points, and include myself in the latter, of course.

#167 Further comments on the BG-wagon and wilwa's ostentative non-involvement in it (which had raised a number of eyebrows before). Took the words right out of my mouth.

Conclusion: nothing morphish so far. (Next thing I know she'll probably suspect me for agreeing with her too much. If so, be my guest.)

Thoughts about Izzy:

#52 IC banter, fake reveals entertaining, and a good point:

Thinking someone couldn't be a metamorph because 'a metamorph would never do something that suspicious, or that x' .. doesn't necessarily work. Because a metamorph is obviously capable of anything.. add to that the specific player..

Indeed.

#58 thinks sally should at least have had some kind of suspicion on some people, if not most. So she should.

#59 Question about DL.

#72, #74, #82, #92, were all about BG and digested in my #158.

#164 responds to my examination of the BG voters in a way that was very very defensive indeed, maybe bordering on omgus (if I'm getting the semantics of that term correctly). I'm not satisfied.

Conclusion: little participation for most of Day 1, some fair but obvious points, a hasty vote, and no satisfying response toDay. (Has she even acknowledged that BG was not a morph? A single 'Gah, I screwed up there' would have convinced me much more than the defense she's offered.) Tending rather morphish, but not my biggest concern toDay (I'm more worried about Noia, if anybody hasn't noticed).

And that's about everybody who's still alive, right?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

And I've noted the timing of your vote. I think wolves would be more likely to hide in the middle of a bandwagon than give an innocent the first or last vote (unless it's a bold Nerwolf), so that would speak in favour of you and Izzy and rather against Shasta and Noia.

Except that my vote X'ed with Izzy's. What I find interesting about this quote is that you yourself already noted this, Pitch, so it seems to me you're being very wishy-washy here. Much like a Morph trying to drum up another lynch candidate. I'd say if Wilwa is lynched and turns out to be a Morph, Pitch is a pretty good candidate for Morphism as well.

Originally Posted by Rikae

How would you distinguish between Evil-BG and BG in general?

That's true, Rikae, but I will say that the Beige Wolf confessed soon after things turned against her in the last game, and her "Oh crud, I did" actually did look like a confession to me (true, that was after my vote for her, but I still stand by the fact that there were more reasons to vote BG than there were anyone else at that point).

Originally Posted by Pitch

(Bah, I keep forgetting that his vote x-ed with Izzy's, so scrap what I've said in #166 about him in terms of hiding in the middle of the bandwagon. Noia looks worse in that respect.)

And now that I've read this, you can scrap the first part of this post.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now sorry if I'm confusing something, but isn't that the same post of wilwa's which you earlier said 'wasn't forced'?

You are, and it's not. Let me finish this post and I'll go get it for you.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here it is:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Ha ha.



But, but that's what makes Day 1s oh so much fun.

Uh, I have to go to work now. I'm not going to be back for like 9 hours. Sorry. But I will definitely be voting!

And it still doesn't look forced to me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Commander Inziladun -

#19 - Mostly banter. Does mention Eomer's suspicion of BG in a slightly negative context. Also mentions that the inability of the gifted to reveal themselves is a bad thing.

#35 - Some banter. Agrees with Pitch about pros and cons of Hunters revealing, but tries to turn the discussion away from the subject of reveals ("the question is academic"). Points out something that Noia said about knowing BG's true nature. This bothers me, but I don't know if it's Morph-ish or Traitor-ish. I'd be inclined to think the latter, honestly - the Traitor is more likely to draw attention to himself, I think, than a Morph would be. Also mentions that I should repair the water pipes. Don't tell me how to do my job! *sulk*

#60 - Jumps on Sally for her unhelpful self-vote, which I agree with wholeheartedly. Also tries to foment suspicion on Eomer, seemingly, by pointing out that he put Rikae in the same category as Noia, whom he voted for. Thinks that Eomer looks worse than Pitch for his stance on BG, but here's a gem from this post that I find to be interesting -

Originally Posted by Inzil to Pitch

Well spotted, Ensign. Keep up the good work and don't be a Metamorph and there may be lieutenant's bars in the cards for you.

After this, given that I'm a little suspicious of Pitch, makes me wonder if Inzil isn't the traitor after all. Hmm.

#61 - Confirms deadline.

#68 - Reiterates that he has "reservations" about Eomer, but [i]praises[/b] Lottie... for her Pitch vote. Says it's because the votes prior to Lottie's for Pitch were unhighlighted and thus invalid, but the way he said it makes me uneasy.

#77 - Attacks BG's reasoning on her vote for Lottie. I can't really fault him here.

#104 - Votes BG. Again, can't really fault him.

#112 - Calls DL.

#128 - Doesn't know what Eomer was. Agrees with me about BG's seeming Morphishness from yesterday. Attacks Wilwa for not voting BG and instead voting Sally. He's actually got a fair point here, given that Sally turned out to be a Morph. One of the current wolf tactics is early wolf-on-wolf, it seems like.



Conclusions -

Inzil has a couple of points against him, and a couple more that rely on Pitch being a Morph (which I'm not uber-confident about, but I think it's more possible than not). I don't know if he's a Morph, though - I think if he is evil, he's the Traitor.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Wilwa -

#21 - Banter. Mentions that she won't be participating much today. Here's that "fantastic" comment which struck me as slightly over-enthusiastic.

#25 - Replies to Nerwen's post about the secret roles, mentioning that they can reveal and "we'll have to be careful about anyone who comes out with made-up roles then." I honestly find this to be a little overly-innocent (holy crap, someone stop me, I'm sounding like Lottie!) Also mentions that a Metamorph could come out as the Seer, but doing that would be suicide as by now we know that the Telepath couldn't reveal (unless they caught a wolf), so I'm not sure where she was going with this.

#29 - This is the post that Lottie said was forced. It's not.

#63 - Mentions that she isn't sure when DL is, so she's not going to vote right now.

#87 - Comes back.

#96 - I'm going to quote this one.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Ok. So not too much to go on sadly. Sally's self vote is weird, but so sally-ish that it's not really all that suspicious. BG's vote is very weird, her explanation just now almost made sense to me until I went back to Lottie's list and saw that she had put herself under 'Is the most innocent person you have never laid eyes on' not under relatively innocent. Even though all the other headings are the same, so I suppose she could have put her there accidently. I suppose.

Gah.

I'll vote soon then I guess. Maybe for BG, cause it's still weird. Maybe for Sally. Maybe for someone else....

x'ed with peeps who said what I said, haha, I need to learn to refresh more often...

Now this is interesting. Here, Sally isn't suspicious and BG is. Moving on...

#100 -

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I get it. She copy and pasted this:

Is the most innocent person you have never laid eyes on:
Lottie!

Relatively Innocentish:
Zil
Eomer
BeiGe

And just put the Relatively Innocentish part right above Lottie's name. So I see what she means.

K, I won't vote for her then, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt here.

Now, I don't know who to vote for...

Okay, now we know BG was actually innocent, so in all actuality that's precisely what she did. However, I still don't get how she could have done it and not known.

#108 - Votes Sally "for lack of nothing better". Wait, what?? Didn't you just say that Sally's self-vote was "so Sally-ish that it's not really all that suspicious"? I don't like this vote at all.

#160 - Defends herself.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

No Sally wasn't really that suspicious, but she was moreso then anyone else from what I could see. If I had voted BG I would like a bandwagonner taking the safe way out. But I didn't, and now I look bad for happening to vote a wolf (uhm, hello? I voted the wolf, not the Seer).

But you specifically said that she "wasn't really that suspicious", so I'm not seeing why you decided to vote for her. And saying that since you voted a Morph instead of the Seer, you're innocent, doesn't work because neither BG nor Sally's roles were known at the time.

#170 - Reiterates what happened in the narration.



Conclusions -

Wilwa's not really smelling like roses at this point. The biggest thing against her is the Sally vote, I think.




Now to take a break, come back, and analyze Pitch. What fun.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Ok, so now Mira's dead. This is crazy. According to the narration it wasn't even like someone showed up and killed her, she just died by freak accident. Going to assume it's the other secret role, or this is Eomer's kill maybe?

Modfire would be my guess, for lack of other information.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Thoughts about Lottie

I honestly intended to do a post-by-post analysis of our current Queen of the Post Count, but it would probably take me all evening, and I don't quite feel up to it at the moment. What worried me most about her (actually the only thing that worried me) is her involvement in the near-DL discussion about/with BG - it could be seen as increasing the pressure on BG and feeding the wagon without actually voting her (as she'd already voted me), or it could be seen as an innocent honestly questioning BG and trying to make up her mind. Taking in account my general impression of her and her performance toDay, I tend to think the latter. So I'm still more inclined to trust her (and I also happen to agree with her about her top suspects).

Lottie seems fairly harmless to me.

Pitch looks decent though, too. Nice efforts at analysation.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Points out something that Noia said about knowing BG's true nature. This bothers me, but I don't know if it's Morph-ish or Traitor-ish. I'd be inclined to think the latter, honestly - the Traitor is more likely to draw attention to himself, I think, than a Morph would be. Also mentions that I should repair the water pipes. Don't tell me how to do my job! *sulk*

I don't really get what you mean there. It bothers you that I asked Para why he was so certain we'd know BG's role soon?

And you had to repair the water leak because our Chief Engineer Lottie well, might have made it worse.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

After this, given that I'm a little suspicious of Pitch, makes me wonder if Inzil isn't the traitor after all. Hmm.

Dark times for the Terran Fleet, when an Acting Captain can't offer a word of encouragement to one of the crew without it being scrutinised.
In other words, that was a throwaway remark. But if I were working with a Pitchmorph in any capacity I'd certainly do my best to praise him where all could hear.

x/d with Shasta and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Quadruple posting? Come on, where is everybody?

OK, so we've got 2 Metamorphs left, +1 Traitor, + 1 secret role of hitherto undefined alignment (could be goodie, could be baddie, could be neutral, so little use worrying about them at the moment).

My candidates for being morphish (in order of suspiciousness): wilwa/ Noia, Shasta/Izzy.
I think it would make perfect sense for one of the morphs to stay ostensibly out of the BG wagon and the other to fuel it, more than both to participate in it. So if any of Noia, Shasta or Izzy turns out to be morphish, that would exonerate the other two (although one of them could still be the Traitor).

Given Shasta's conversion to the case against wilwa, it seems unlikely that they would be packmates together. It could of couse be wolf-on-wolf on Shasta's part, which would be quite daring as there's only two of 'em left; but it's the last wolf standing who wins the game, and I remember Zil and me did something of the like in Lottie's game- so not impossible. But any other combination seems more likely.

So that narrows it down to (in order of suspiciousness): wilwa/Noia, wilwa/Izzy, wilwa/Shasta.
On second thought (or third, or rather Nth), it just strikes me that wilwa may be the Traitor rather than a morph. Her safe vote for sally could have been a perfect way of avoiding to lynch either a morph or an innocent, couldn't it? If I'm right, her early point about the impossibilty of fake reveals in this game is positively hilarious.

(And wilwa, the point isn't that you voted a morph over the Seer, but that you voted a morph at a time when she had the chance of a snowflake in hell to be lynched. Get it?)

EDIT: x-ed with a bunch of Shastas.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Except that my vote X'ed with Izzy's. What I find interesting about this quote is that you yourself already noted this, Pitch, so it seems to me you're being very wishy-washy here.

Yes, I'd noted it, and forgotten about it afterwards, and realized my forgetting, and said that the part of the post of mine you quoted should be scrapped as far as it concerns you, and you aren't my top suspect anyway, so will you please be content?!?

That's true, Rikae, but I will say that the Beige Wolf confessed soon after things turned against her in the last game, and her "Oh crud, I did" actually did look like a confession to me (true, that was after my vote for her, but I still stand by the fact that there were more reasons to vote BG than there were anyone else at that point).

I see where you came from, and in so far as a non-voter has a right to judge the BG-voters, I'm satisfied with your explanation.

And now that I've read this, you can scrap the first part of this post.

And now I've read this, you can scrap the first part of mine here.

You are, and it's not. Let me finish this post and I'll go get it for you.

OK, I am, and it wasn't. Meaning it may not have been 'forced', but it still was something blatantly obvious to say. 'Day 1s suck'. Yeah, we all know that, so what???

Originally Posted by Shasta

After this, given that I'm a little suspicious of Pitch, makes me wonder if Inzil isn't the traitor after all. Hmm.

You know what, that's one minor detail about Zil that's been worrying me . That was his response to my pointing out Eomer's lack of highlighting in his vote, which I myself didn't think at all commendable - so I've wondered whether he was trying to rub me the right way here, and I've been debating with myself for a while whether to bring it up or not, only I thought that would have been blowing it up beyond proportions. Care to comment, Zil?

Shasta's wilwanalysis: I concur, especially with this:

Votes Sally "for lack of nothing better". Wait, what?? Didn't you just say that Sally's self-vote was "so Sally-ish that it's not really all that suspicious"? I don't like this vote at all.

and this:

But you specifically said that she "wasn't really that suspicious", so I'm not seeing why you decided to vote for her. And saying that since you voted a Morph instead of the Seer, you're innocent, doesn't work because neither BG nor Sally's roles were known at the time.

Conclusion from the above: Shasta, you're looking better and better to me in the light of your recent reactions. Suspect me all you want (although I'd still like to know what for), but if I end up dead, look at what I said and bring your psi powers back online, OK?

EDIT: x-ed from #179 onwards.
EDITEDIT: fixed quote formatting in quote of Shasta quoting Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You know what, that's one minor detail about Zil that's been worrying me . That was his response to my pointing out Eomer's lack of highlighting in his vote, which I myself didn't think at all commendable - so I've wondered whether he was trying to rub me the right way here, and I've been debating with myself for a while whether to bring it up or not, only I thought that would have been blowing it up beyond proportions. Care to comment, Zil?

Already did here:

Originally Posted by me

Dark times for the Terran Fleet, when an Acting Captain can't offer a word of encouragement to one of the crew without it being scrutinised.
In other words, that was a throwaway remark. But if I were working with a Pitchmorph in any capacity I'd certainly do my best to praise him where all could hear.

That was really it: just a throwaway IC line.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Conclusion from the above: Shasta, you're looking better and better to me in the light of your recent reactions. Suspect me all you want (although I'd still like to know what for), but if I end up dead, look at what I said and bring your psi powers back online, OK?

To 'rub you the right way' even more, I'll go further and say I agree that Shasta looks fairly innocent at the moment.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

And you drew attention to those, too.

OK. When you see player 1 making apparently unsubstantiated accusations on player 2 on Day 1, there's more or less three possible explanations:
1. player 1 is a wolf (not bloody likely, as it's a very bold move, but who knows)
2. player 1 is just trying to 'stir the pot' (as we now know was the case with Eomer)
3. player 1 is the Seer and dropping hints about their dream.
So what are you going to do? Just ignore it all for fear of exposing the Seer, at a time when there was nothing else of any note happening? Or question player 1, hoping to get a better read on them?

Otherwise -

Originally Posted by Izzy

The only other possibility that I thought really - was that she could've been the seer; false saying Loslote was innocent, then voting her. To draw attention towards her vote.... since they can't reveal. However I ruled her out as too new to pull off something like that... especially with less than five posts in between.

Nah, sorry, that seems to have been constructed with hindsight. Don't buy it.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Again. I did not vote BG because of previous game behavior. K. Thanks. I've seen this said more than once - that I voted for her because of last game. This is the second (going to be third) time I think I even said it - I did not vote her because of previous game behavior.

No, you didn't. I've noted you haven't used that excuse, I'll hand you that.

Hmmm. This post of Izzy's has some marks of an exasperated innocent. I'm inclined to move her to the lower end of my suspicion list, along with Shasta. (Zil is already there)

You all know whom that leaves on the upper end, don't you?

EDIT: x-ed with Zil and wilwa.
EDITEDIT: fixed quote formatting in quote of Shasta quoting Zil.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Zil

Dark times for the Terran Fleet, when an Acting Captain can't offer a word of encouragement to one of the crew without it being scrutinised.
In other words, that was a throwaway remark. But if I were working with a Pitchmorph in any capacity I'd certainly do my best to praise him where all could hear.[*eyeroll smiley*]

Ah, I'd overlooked that. OK, satisfies me. (And Shasta, if you'd like to see what a Pitchwolf and a Zilwolf working together look like, read Lottie's game!)

About wilwa's #189: That's better - not saying I agree with all of her conclusions (indeed, on second thought, I agree with none of them as far as top suspects are concerned), but her reaction under pressure has some marks of an exasperated innocent, and at least she's making an effort now. Keep her for another Day.