WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Isabellkya]

Winty. I am assuming you are referring to your post #155? Uhm, unless I'm completely failing. How is that a reason for your vote? Because you found them suspicious? Which you found them suspicious because Eomer had them on his suspicion list? If so.. why are you essentially taking the suspicions of dead innocents and going off of them? Why not have your own original thought?


Dun. I am assuming these are the relevant bits..
#128: Actually, Wilwa's vote for Sally seems to make her look a bit worse toDay. Keeping away from the BG wagon when Wilwa knew she was already done for would have been a very smart move for a Wilwamorph.

#195: I still feel that your making a throwaway vote like you did looks worse than the BG voters. (in response to/about Wilwa.)

#202: The difference between yesterDay's voting and toDay's is that toDay Paranoia doesn't look nearly as bad as BG did. In the case of BG, it's difficult for me to see how anyone could have backed away from voting her under those circumstances without having some knowledge she was innocent.


Why didn't you simply say.. 'I suspect Wilwa and here is why:' Instead of making people search for it? Essentially your suspicions upon her were based on her Sally vote? Which you were planning on doing yourself. "Since I saw no chance of getting Sally lynched, I went ahead with BG."
If you were town, you would be wanting to vote your suspects.. not whoever had the highest potential of being lynched. Obviously you don't seem to be concerned about that - since you've been on both lynch wagons.. Your fur itching yet?

X'd with every thing after #280.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, Pitchmorph, if it's any consolation, I'm not certain I advocate lynching you today. I'm fairly sure, based on the numbers, that we have a shot at trying to lynch the more-dangerous wereBear today, and I'm wondering if that wouldn't be more profitable.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Well, Pitchmorph, if it's any consolation, I'm not certain I advocate lynching you today. I'm fairly sure, based on the numbers, that we have a shot at trying to lynch the more-dangerous wereBear today, and I'm wondering if that wouldn't be more profitable.

Yeah, and go through it all again toMorrow, and still be no closer to finding the morph? How is that any consolation?

And you'd have to be damn sure you've spotted the CyberBear correctly to pass up the lynching of your chief morph suspect, if I may say so. Which makes me wonder... either you're very very very confident about your notorious psi powers (in which case you're in for a nasty surprise as soon as I'm dead or this is over, whichever happens first), or you don't really care.

By the way, Izzy had a good point in her last about winty basically echoing dead innocents, but his answer still looks like he believes what he's saying. Another one.

(x-ed with Shasta's last)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yeah, and go through it all again toMorrow, and still be no closer to finding the morph? How is that any consolation?

And you'd have to be damn sure you've spotted the CyberBear correctly to pass up the lynching of your chief morph suspect, if I may say so. Which makes me wonder... either you're very very very confident about your notorious psi powers (in which case you're in for a nasty surprise as soon as I'm dead or this is over, whichever happens first), or you don't really care.

By the way, Izzy had a good point in her last about winty basically echoing dead innocents, but his answer still looks like he believes what he's saying. Another one.

(x-ed with Shasta's last)

Not so, unless I've done my math wrong. Look -

Scenario 1 - lynch Morph (six), bear kills (five)

Leaves us tomorrow with 4 on 1. Good odds, but who knows what the Bear has up his/her sleeve?

Scenario 2 - lynch bear (six), Morph kills (five)

4 on 1 again, BUT the Assassin has a chance to kill the Morph, ending the game automatically, plus the Morph's only got their kill left (unless our moddess snuck something in under our noses).

Scenario 3 - lynch innocent (six), Morph kills (five), Bear kills (four)

Not the greatest odds, true. BUT - the Assassin could still kill the Morph, OR the Bear could kill the Morph, OR the Morph could kill the Bear, OR they could kill each other (maybe?). And even if none of the above happens, the Bear and Morph won't be working together. (Note - Traitor not factored into above calculation because he's counted as innocent)

Of the above scenarios, I'd say Scenario 2 is the best and Scenario 3 the worst, but we'd have to be extremely unlucky for nothing good to come out of Scenario 3. I'm not as sure of Para's bear-ness as I am about your Morphery, that's true... but I am pretty darn sure.

[Pitchwife]

OK, that looks pretty impressive too. Only I'd feel worse than bad voting him in his absence twice, and be wrong again. And my time's running out (RL-wise), and I've no clue about the last morph, having spent all Day reacting to suspicion, and I don't care that much anymore whether I get lynched or modfired or whatsoever...

(x-ed with Shasta again)

EDIT: and x-ed with Zil too

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In fact, I think I'll put my money where my mouth is, in this case.

++Paranoia

[Pitchwife]

Shasta - I see.

I'm not as sure of Para's bear-ness as I am about your Morphery, that's true... but I am pretty darn sure.

As for Morphery, it's largely my own fault, but we're going to have an interesting after-game discussion.

OK, what the heck, I haven't got that much to lose, have I?

++Para-whatever-in-space-he-is-Noia

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Winty. I am assuming you are referring to your post #155? Uhm, unless I'm completely failing. How is that a reason for your vote? Because you found them suspicious? Which you found them suspicious because Eomer had them on his suspicion list? If so.. why are you essentially taking the suspicions of dead innocents and going off of them? Why not have your own original thought?

If the innocents who suspect morphs are killed off, then the only innocents left are ones who suspect other innocents. This is good for the morphs, which provides them with good reasoning to kill these innocents who suspect morphs. Both Eomer and Lottie were Innocents who were killed, so I am assuming that the morphs killed them because they (Lottie and Eomer) were suspecting other Morphs.

X'd with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I bet a metamorph version of her couldn't resist the same urges to act like a plum fool.

Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I'd like to say day 3, and two metamorphs down; fantastic work, crew. i'd also like to say losing Lottie is quite a blow; two gifted down in two days does not make me a happy camper, though losing the telepath was partially my bad.

There is a hitch in whatever killed "Lieutenant Sally" But that's not our primary concern as of this moment; if it's not obvious.

Now, I'd like Pitch to pop up and answer my questions to him in that big rambling nightmare of a post I made at the end of day 2.

I'd also like to see more of Shasta's analysis. And Rikae's.

In the meanwhile, I'm going back to Lottie's posts to see if there's much of anything there that might be of use; with only one metamorph left, I doubt she would have been murdered to redirect suspicion as much as it's likely she was murdered to get suspicion off of someone. And last I checked, she had definite suspicions of Izzy.

First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.


Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

And I had the least amount of posts last game too; post count != bear or Morph, Tanner.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.



Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

In case you hadn't noticed by the nice little note next to Eomer's name, I was basing a whole lot of my suspicions based on BG's roleflip; bg flipped town. People shifted spots.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

Uh, I did a whole lot more than just explain why BG's explanation was unsatisfactory. I explained what else about her I found suspicious. read things through before condemning me on one point.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

Well let's see. Of course it's going to be a zealous defense, considering I am my only 'for sure' innocent. Who else can I rely on to defend myself except myself? Again, defending oneself is all well and good; if you have an issue with me, pick out how I was suspicious in defending myself. And yeah, I was. Based primarily on interactions with her and how she was handling herself this round rather than the last one just made me instinctively think she was innocent.

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:



First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.
[/quote] Why yes, I am congratulating you on getting rid of threats to the, you know. town.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

I said there was still the issue of what killed Sally. I, however, believe the potential for the traitor to meet up with the morph to be a more pressing threat. Which it is.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.

Fun fact. I work from 8 until 4:30. I leave my apartment at about 7ish in the morning. I usually don't get time to get online until late. I asked pitch to respond to my accusations at the end of day 2. I asked you and Rikae to keep it up because I liked what you were doing.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.

You could at least wait for me to respond, you know; your points are all really based on taking me out of context and using one post, and moreover, one line in specific to condemn me as the bear.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Paranoia, my analysis was based mainly on attitudes rather than actions, as that is how one catches a Werebear. And in my opinion, your attitudes have been pretty Bear-ish. You don't have to get all sarcastic the moment someone suspects you, you know. That's another evil tactic - "everyone who suspects me is an idiot".

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Paranoia, my analysis was based mainly on attitudes rather than actions, as that is how one catches a Werebear. And in my opinion, your attitudes have been pretty Bear-ish. You don't have to get all sarcastic the moment someone suspects you, you know. That's another evil tactic - "everyone who suspects me is an idiot".

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Who is this Tanner person? Shasta, do you know him/her? I'm very confused!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Paranoia

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

That's because the counter-points you've given have all been to defend your actions. A bear's actions are basically unimpeachable - they can play the game like an innocent with a nightkill. I think you're a bear because of your attitudes. Two entirely different things. And bringing past games into your defense is not helping you.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Paranoia

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

Hm, so sure that Shasta isn't evil, are you?

As for Pitch... not only self-preservation, but the morph's gotta get rid of the bear eventually, too, doesn't xe?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Why didn't you simply say.. 'I suspect Wilwa and here is why:' Instead of making people search for it? Essentially your suspicions upon her were based on her Sally vote? Which you were planning on doing yourself. "Since I saw no chance of getting Sally lynched, I went ahead with BG."

Once again, I was leaning toward Sally until BG made her slipup, and eveyone started voting for her. I found BG's behavious highly suspect myself, so I went with her. Since Wilwa's ignoring said slipup looked worse to me than any of the people who had voted BG, I went with Wilwa yesterDay for making a throwaway vote. And it appears to have paid off.
As for searching, was it really that difficult to see, or do you have you furry blinders on?

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

If you were town, you would be wanting to vote your suspects.. not whoever had the highest potential of being lynched. Obviously you don't seem to be concerned about that - since you've been on both lynch wagons.. Your fur itching yet?

No fur here, thanks. And yesterDay's lynch wagon led to a Metamorph, a path you (and Rikae) avoided by voting one another.
How many times must I say that BG's behaviour looked highly suspicious? She easily trumped my mild suspicion of Sally, who I had nothing on but her wasted Day 1 vote. I never said I was dead set on Sally's furriness; just that I'd intended to vote for her.

Actually, you're sounding a bit like the late Wilmorph herself.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I didn't really have too many other options. No Sally wasn't really that suspicious, but she was moreso then anyone else from what I could see. If I had voted BG I would like a bandwagonner taking the safe way out.

x/d with Shasta