WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Aganzir]

So it's 2-5 or 3-4, whichever way you prefer to put it... As several others have been saying, if we don't get either a wolf or the cobbler today, we lose.

Originally Posted by skip

Doesn't this mean that cobbler can just as easily do the wolves harm as he/she can be of help to them, really? In the light of this, going for the cobbler when there are two wolves out there seems odd. But as much as I'd like to quarrel with Agan about this, it looks like she's gone for the Day.

In a way, yes - too bad for the wolves if the cobbler finds them innocent-looking enough to vote for one of them. But if both the cobbler and the wolves are alive tomorrow, well, they win. And at this point it's about as important to get rid of the cobbler as lynching a wolf is. It's really rather suspicious of you to try to save the cobbler (by saying that lynching her doesn't matter right now)...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

cobblers who survive into the endgame are very dangerous, because then the wolves can reveal openly, and they all vote together.

Fortunately, that doesn't always work. If there's just one wolf left, also the remaining ordo might try to reveal as a wolf. Or the two remaining villagers might try to counter the wolves' claim and with good luck they'd succeed in fooling the cobbler. The biggest reason a surviving cobbler is dangerous is because she can vote for herself - after all, she counts as an innocent.

Originally Posted by skip

Still I'd argue that would be more of a concern for the wolves trying to make sure they don't accidentally kill the cobbler, then a concern for the village trying to actively hunt down the cobbler.

So you're suggesting we should ignore the cobbler because there's a chance the wolves might kill her?

Originally Posted by sally

While before I had thought Eomer a possible top suspect, Agan seemed to hop onto me quite suddenly, and since I started suspecting her she's pressed harder.

I voted for you pretty randomly, but then you had bad reasons for suspecting me which made me actually suspicious of you. And calling me a possible panicked wolf? Nah. Me? Dear sally, you should know by now that if you want to suspect me without getting it thrown back into your face, your reasons should be extremely good.

Originally Posted by skip

Agan is acting rather cobblerish too, bringing up very minor points, making hens out of feathers in a somewhat disturbing manner.

Elaborate.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now I'm not at all familiar with [Eomer's] wolfing habits, but would he really do something that eye-catching and questionable as a wolf?

I find it rather unlikely... It's good to have proper suspicions on people, but I agree it would really be quite daring to go after the same person three days in a row.

Pitch has a good point about skip voting for the same person as Greenie.

Sorry if I've missed something but why does Greenie's innocence make Eomer a wolf? I really don't like it how some people are pushing it... What happens if Eomer is innocent? We lose.

Originally Posted by sally

However, we don't want to lynch the cobbler toDay either, as that would result in End Game as much as lynching an innocent.

Actually, we do. Not as much as a wolf, of course, but if we think somebody is the cobbler, we should go for them.

Also, if somebody fake-reveals as the seer, I think the real seer should hold revealing till tomorrow... For one of the wolves, a fake reveal equals admitting to being a wolf, and I don't think they can afford that now, so if there's a fake-reveal, it's almost certainly the cobbler. Which means the wolves kill her tonight, and we get an extra day.

I can most likely be around till DL too.

Grr I have no idea what we should do today... Personally I might consider lynching skip (getting the cobbler is better than nothing, and I'm rather positive that's him) and waiting an extra day before the seer reveals (if we get the cobbler - or a wolf - today, we're in the same situation tomorrow, except the seer has got one more dream), but then, I'm not a risk taker.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Agan, I'm glad to see I'm not alone in thinking Sally's 'Green or Eomer' post was suspicious.

I would find it helpful if people could spell out why they think Skip is the cobbler; I've seen that alluded to a few times and I don't really grasp it. He's a bit, let's dig into the book of cliches, beneath my radar.

Go on, convince me.

[Aganzir]

Not voting:
Nerwen, Pitch and Lottie. I might change my mind after reading through their posts (because that's what I have to do some time today), but they've looked innocent enough thus far.
Eomer, at least not before I know why everyone suddenly wants to get him lynched. Yes I voted for him a couple of days ago, but that was only because I figured he'd be my best bet at saving wilwa (whom I thought innocent). I will probably have to read through his posts as well.

Might vote:
skip, probably my first choice.
sally, she looks somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's because she's actually a wolf this time or because I tend to look at sally through wolf-coloured glasses.

I'm going to go through skip's posts in a while and see if I can find anything else, but he's been making some comments that have sent chills down my spine. Comments that make me think "This is how the cobbler tries to address the wolves!" And Pitch brought up a good point about his voting behaviour being very similar to Greenie's.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

skip, probably my first choice.
sally, she looks somewhat suspicious but I'm not sure if that's because she's actually a wolf this time or because I tend to look at sally through wolf-coloured glasses.

I'm going to go through skip's posts in a while and see if I can find anything else, but he's been making some comments that have sent chills down my spine. Comments that make me think "This is how the cobbler tries to address the wolves!" And Pitch brought up a good point about his voting behaviour being very similar to Greenie's.

If you think he's the cobbler you probably shouldn't be voting for him.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer

Agan, I'm glad to see I'm not alone in thinking Sally's 'Green or Eomer' post was suspicious.

I would find it helpful if people could spell out why they think Skip is the cobbler; I've seen that alluded to a few times and I don't really grasp it. He's a bit, let's dig into the book of cliches, beneath my radar.

Go on, convince me.

Well, there's this:

Skip, #216.
Nerwen, #217.
Skip, #218.

EDIT:X'd since Skip at #290.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And Pitch brought up a good point about his voting behaviour being very similar to Greenie's.

Why is this incriminating? I don't get it... If anything it looks like Pitch (or you in a lesser degree) is trying to frame me...