WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Say what now? My head hurts.

Indeed.

Agan, what do you think of the fact that Skip just voted Eomer?

EDIT:X'd since last post.

[satansaloser2005]

Many things about this are not good....

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed.

Agan, what do you think of the fact that Skip just voted Eomer?

Either he thinks Eomer is innocent (thus Lottie is a wolf) or he thinks Eomer is a wolf, is sure one of them is going to die and wants to make the other look better. Assuming, of course, he's the cobbler.

I'd rather kill him than Eomer though. (News to anybody?)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Indeed.

Agan, what do you think of the fact that Skip just voted Eomer?

EDIT:X'd since last post.

Lottie, what do you think of the fact that Nerwen said this to Agan?




Seriously though, I was terrified for a moment that I'd misjudged and that Nerwen and Agan were the wolves, about to jump onto Lottie and end the game. Of course Agan had already voted, but I was still paranoid for a bit.


Nerwen, what's going on here?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Lottie, what do you think of the fact that Nerwen said this to Agan?




Seriously though, I was terrified for a moment that I'd misjudged and that Nerwen and Agan were the wolves, about to jump onto Lottie and end the game. Of course Agan had already voted, but I was still paranoid for a bit.


Nerwen, what's going on here?

Honestly, I'm not reading much into it. It could be that Nerwen's the cobber, and had figured out that Agan was a wolf - which would still fit in with the probability that Skip dreamed her and found her innocent - or she could be an ordo who happened to trust Agan. Up until the very end of yesterDay, so did I, so I can hardly blame her for it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

Nerwen, what's going on here?

Agan was pushing heavily for skip being the cobbler. Then he voted the leading wolf-suspect– which was hardly the most obvious thing for a cobbler to do.

EDIT: typo.

[Aganzir]

Aieeee I totally screwed this up. I'm sorry skip!

Originally Posted by Lottie

Was his Seer-hinting towards Eomer a bluff? Or had he dreamed of Pitchie earlier and found him guilty?

If he had dreamed of two wolves, he would have come out yesterday.

Originally Posted by Lottie

From what he said at the end of yesterDay, and from Agan's insistance that we lynch Skip, I'd guess that he dreamed of Agan, and that she's our last wolf.

Trust me Lottie, if I was a wolf, I so totally wouldn't try to lynch the one I thought was the cobbler when his survival would've meant we win - especially as there were several people who said we shouldn't waste our time looking for the cobbler. I would have gone after somebody there was at least a decent chance to lynch, for example you. Aganwolf would have said: "He's probably the cobbler but let's not worry about him right now, let's try to get a wolf instead!" Just ask Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, that earlier bit says that he dreamed of Agan, me, or Pitchie last Night, because he wouldn't have dreamed of someone he didn't suspect.

It does indeed look like he dreamed of Nerwen, but I don't think we can say for sure he didn't suspect, ie. didn't dream of sally last night. It's a dangerous assumption; who knows if he had been reading through the thread during the night and noticed something suspicious that prompted him to dream sally? I'm not saying that's the case, it's just a bit too simple to exclude her because of a single comment.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Agan was pushing heavily for skip being the cobbler. Then he voted the leading wolf-suspect– which was hardly the most obvious thing for a cobbler to do.

Exactly... I was surprised when he did it and began to have second thoughts, but I was still rather convinced he was the cobbler.

I'll go through skip's posts too (at this point of the game, it isn't safe to trust somebody else's judgement :-p), and I'm also planning to take a look at Eomer's interaction with people. One thing is sure, though - the wolves had really decided to sacrifice him if need be, given that each and every one of us had been going after him to an extent.

[Aganzir]

Day 1: skip doesn't really say anything definite about anyone (it's mostly just banter), but his reasons for voting EW look so forced that it seems he dreamed of a wolf and tried to come up with a decent explanation to vote for him. Difficult, given that he had just made one post.

Day 2: He analyses day 1's voting. While he doesn't say anything conclusive about anyone, he semi-defends Fea by writing of those who voted for her in suspicious-ish light. He marks, though, that even her vote for EW or EW's for her don't clear her. The other two people he felt better about were Lottie and Boro for their votes that sealed EW's fate. It could be said it points to a Fea dream, but then there's this:

Originally Posted by Boro

Like for instance, today I'm feeling far more trusting of Skip today than yesterday.

To me it looks like there's something to it. They couldn't afford to be blatantly friendly with each other because otherwise the wolves would've noticed it, but I think he could have dreamed of Boro.

Day 3: He suggests there were no wolves among the wilwa-voters, ie. Nerwen and Greenie are innocent. Now, he couldn't have dreamed of them both on night 3, and he didn't treat either of them like a known innocent earlier. He is semi-suspicious of Eomer, Lottie and Pitch, isn't too worried about Fea, thinks I am rather cobblerish, and is very concerned about sally (whom she voted for). I think he could have dreamed of either Nerwen (innocent), Greenie or Fea. However, it's really weird he makes such a case of no wolf having voted for wilwa because he obviously couldn't have known it for sure...

Day 4: He tells Nerwen he wouldn't lynch her, pretty much saying "she's innocent". It would be rather dumb of him to say that without having dreamed of her. He considers voting for Pitch, saying it looked like he and I were trying to frame him, but he didn't think I was a wolf. His dreaming of me might explain why he was so reluctant to reply to my points against him.

Originally Posted by skip

I expect that Lottie would reveal if she's the Seer with a positive on Eomer. That would be the wise thing to do at this point.

So does this mean he hadn't dreamed of Eomer?
He considered voting Eomer, me or Lottie (because Pitch was unavailable). It's pretty certain he hadn't dreamed of sally - he talks so little of her.

Based on this, I'd suggest the following:
Night 1 - EW
Night 2 - Boro (maybe Fea)
Night 3 - Greenie (maybe Nerwen or Fea)
Night 4 - Nerwen (maybe Eomer or me)
Night 5 - could be anybody

Of course it's also possible he dreamed of somebody the night they died and we have therefore no evidence... But at least Nerwen's innocence shouldn't be a question.

[Nerwen]

Trust me Lottie, if I was a wolf, I so totally wouldn't try to lynch the one I thought was the cobbler when his survival would've meant we win

Yes, but only if Wolf of the Rohirrim survived too– and I'd say you'd have had to work pretty hard to get anyone else lynched at that point.

[Aganzir]

Eomer on others:

There might be a wolf in the EWagon (the only one alive: LOTTIE). No opinion on Lottie at first, but finds her inoffensive and careful later. Half-accuses Greenie of trying to manipulate people to vote for wilwa instead of Lottie. Doesn't think the lynch choice should be narrowed down to either wilwa or Lottie. Pretty suspicious of Lottie, and willing to kill her (if Greenie turns out innocent). Loslote being a pretty obvious seer? Feels worse about her than anyone else (except sally, but would rather lynch Lottie).

NERWEN is twisting wilwa's words. Mostly agrees with her and wants her alive. Could go either way, and her vote for wilwa looks better than Greenie's. Suggests Nerwen is the cobbler (he's confused if the cobbler's role is revealed on death). Usually worried about Nerwen.

Shasta's death might point to PITCH. Can't get a read on him. Probably innocent. Not as worried about him as about everybody else, probably because doesn't know him so well.

Shasta's death might point to SALLY. She appears like a cobbler (as always), and looks wrong to him (as always). Unfair with her suspicion of him, and looks like a wolf under pressure. His other most suspicious person (besides Lottie). She looks evil, not the least because of pressing that either Eomer or Greenie has to be a wolf. Feels worse about her than anyone else (except Lottie, but thinks a sally lynch might get more support).

Others on Eomer:

PITCHWIFE finds Eomer's day 1 vote hasty but sees where he's coming from. Suggests Eomer was accusing Lottie subtly of her changed playing style. Finds Eomer the most suspicious. Votes for Eomer, and if his vote hadn't come right after the deadline, it would've killed him. Finds Eomer's unrelenting crusade against Greenie puzzling. Thinks either Eomer or Greenie is a wolf but votes for skip who looks like the cobbler.

NERWEN thinks Eomer is possibly a wolf, but his vendetta against the EW-voters might be foolhardy for a wolf. Questions Eomer for suggesting the cobbler's role isn't revealed on death. Explains to Eomer why it's possible skip is the cobbler. Plans to vote for either Eomer or skip. Votes for Eomer, but it's basically a throwaway because his fate had already been sealed.

LOSLOTE considers voting for Eomer or EW on day 1 for being quiet (quite bold of her if she's a wolf). Thinks Eomer looks decent. No read on Eomer, but his exchange with skip about Lottie's "changed" playing style is suspicious. Votes him for being vague and noncommittal. Eomer is suspicious for giving a throwaway vote for Greenie which looks like he just wanted to clear his hands from a bandwagon against the innocent wilwa. Suggests Eomer's crusade against the EW voters is a double-bluff. Wants to lynch Eomer when Greenie turned out innocent. Wonders why Eomer didn't night-kill her if he honestly thought she was the seer. Votes for Eomer. Eomer dies.

SALLY thinks Eomer is alright. Eomer's cases are flimsy but he could also be an overeager ordo.

Of course if he's lynched and is another wolf, I'll be epically cross, so for the sake of not semi-defending two wolves, I have to agree that he looks bad.

This really looks quite bad for sally...
Lists Eomer as guilty. Claims later she was going to vote for him, but she failed to show up and wilwa died instead. Feels bad about Eomer because of his vote for Green, but Greenie is her other top suspect. Votes for Greenie. The next day, wants to lynch Eomer or me. She's very much against going after the cobbler. She has very little concrete evidence that points to Eomer's guilt, it's rather just feelings. Votes for Eomer and pretends to be the seer who had dreamed of him.

Conclusions: Interestingly enough, his interaction with Nerwen looks the most wolfish... You know, keeping a distance to her and not saying anything concrete about her. But then, skip's posts pretty much clear her.
I feel quite good about Pitch because his vote would have killed Eomer if it had come a bit earlier, and while it's possible he was trying to lynch his fellow to make himself look better, I think he would have made a bigger show out of it to maximise the profits. Plus, if he had really wanted to clear himself by killing Eomer, he wouldn't have voted for skip (the suspected cobbler) the day before yesterday.
Eomer's relationship with Lottie and sally is interesting. He went after them both the same way, and it really seems improbable that he would have done that to a fellow... But he'd been suspected quite heavily, so it would kind of make sense to attack a fellow very hard so when one dies, at least the other looks better. Wouldn't be the first time that happens. But it's not just him who's being weird. They both attack him with very vague reasons while being totally sure of his guilt - and the certainty is sure to make them look better when Eomer turns out to be a wolf. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was our last wolf... probably sally. After all, we can't try to find the last one based on who's gone after Eomer and who hasn't - everybody has been doing that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, but only if Wolf of the Rohirrim survived too– and I'd say you'd have had to work pretty hard to get anyone else lynched at that point.

It would have made much more sense for me to attack Lottie or sally, the ones who were the most suspicious of Eomer, and turn their suspicion against them.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

From this we can conclude the following....

Which isn't much of a conclusion. It just means he felt good enough about you not to consider voting for you, and bad enough of the rest of us to consider voting for us. We can't figure out his dreams based on a single comment.

it's possible that Nerwen (or myself, for the benefit of argument) could be the cobbler.

Exactly. We still have the cobbler, and if we don't lynch either her or the last wolf today, they win tomorrow... Only I was epically wrong about skip, and now I have no idea who the cobbler might be.

I'll repeat myself (and Skip, for that matter) and say that Lottie and Eomer aren't fellows.

It might be probable, but we can't afford to make such bold assumptions today. It's clear skip didn't dream of Lottie, and it isn't even certain he dreamed of Eomer. When it comes to people he didn't dream, he's just another villager. Innocent, perhaps, but he doesn't know anything more than we others.

Besides, I think Agan's more than clever enough to have picked up on Skippity's earlier hints, hence her desire to lynch him.

I only picked up cobbler hints. If I was a wolf and thought he was the cobbler, I wouldn't have tried to lynch him. If I was a wolf and thought he was the seer, he would've died a bit earlier. As it happens, I'm innocent and thought he was the cobbler.

See you later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

Eomer's relationship with Lottie and sally is interesting. He went after them both the same way, and it really seems improbable that he would have done that to a fellow... But he'd been suspected quite heavily, so it would kind of make sense to attack a fellow very hard so when one dies, at least the other looks better. Wouldn't be the first time that happens. But it's not just him who's being weird. They both attack him with very vague reasons while being totally sure of his guilt - and the certainty is sure to make them look better when Eomer turns out to be a wolf.

Yes, and it is rather weird how sure they were, even though he had been suspicious– yet, it seems like a very gratuitous bit of wolf-on-wolfing. Sally, was the one heavily pushing the idea that Greenie's innocence would prove Eomer's guilt, while Lottie practically dragged him to the gallows. Recall that all Wolf 3 had to do yesterDay was keep Eomer and the cobbler alive.

With you and Pitch, though, there's your Day 2 votes on Eomer, either of which might easily have killed him.

Of course, we know that wolf-on-wolfing of some kind happened, because everyone now living has accused and/or voted Eomer at some point.

So: "When you have eliminated the impossible..." Except not quite, because none of this is completely impossible. But I'd say– subject to revision– that the least improbable explanation is that you, Agan, are the cobbler, and Pitch is Wolf 3. If you made up your mind skip wasn't a wolf, you'd naturally want to steer the lynch his way, which you were trying to do yesterDay and the Day before. Meanwhile, on Day 2, you gave no strong indication you'd vote Eomer:

Originally Posted by Agan

I could go for sally, or maybe Lottie or even Eomer

So a Pitchwolf might have decided it was worth taking the risk of making a late wolf-on-wolf vote. His vote crossed with DL, and thus with yours.

That's my best-fit scenario at the moment.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Night 5 - could be anybody

I don't think it could have been anybody. Look at the very end of yesterDay. Sally got way into supporting Skip there at the end. I don't think it's within the realm of possibility that he dreamed of her after that. Far more likely that he dreamed of one of the people he suspected.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, and it is rather weird how sure they were, even though he had been suspicious– yet, it seems like a very gratuitous bit of wolf-on-wolfing. Sally, was the one heavily pushing the idea that Greenie's innocence would prove Eomer's guilt, while Lottie practically dragged him to the gallows. Recall that all Wolf 3 had to do yesterDay was keep Eomer and the cobbler alive.

I just wanted to say, this gave me a mental image of Sally pushing and me dragging Eomer to the gallows, him dragging his feet and protesting the whole way. Hilarious.

So: "When you have eliminated the impossible..." Except not quite, because none of this is completely impossible. But I'd say– subject to revision– that the least improbable explanation is that you, Agan, are the cobbler, and Pitch is Wolf 3. If you made up your mind skip wasn't a wolf, you'd naturally want to steer the lynch his way, which you were trying to do yesterDay and the Day before. Meanwhile, on Day 2, you gave no strong indication you'd vote Eomer:

This makes a lot of sense to me. Pitchie did turn into Mr. Agreeable partway through the game, and even at the beginning, he wasn't very aggressive.

Also, [whisper]I'm not really here.[/whisper]