Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Folwren

I was going to tell why I voted the way I did, but I won't unless you all want to hear, because it would take up some of my very little time, and I don't want to do that.

I'd like to hear it, when you have time.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Question: Do we think that the elves thought Nogrod was the seer based only on what Fea put into the narration?

Nog did say some things that could have given that impression. Nerwen did a decent analysis of it here.

Originally Posted by Folwren

Also...when I have time, I would like to look into Shasta. Sally said she distrusted him, but that may have just been because he voted for her. But if there's another reason she didn't trust him, then I'd like to find out. The problem is, I may not have very much time, so if anyone else thinks it worth while to look at him...please do.

At the moment, I don't remember what else there might have been. My time is pretty much at a premium also, but I'll try to look at it, especially as DL for picking reps is fast approaching.

Originally Posted by Folwren

What about Legate? He's another person I'll look into. It's odd, but I think I distrust both the people who voted me into Rep position yesterday. I obviously distrusted Wilwa, obvious because I killed her, and I know I distrust Legate. I think it's because I feel they shouldn't have voted for me that day because I had declared I was gone, and they did. I think that's odd and not very explanable, unless Legate really didn't see I was gone.

Since we know Wilwa did the same thing and she was innocent, I can't hold that alone against him too much. It looked rather convenient at the time, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Since you say that, who would have been your first choices?



Soliciting votes, are you? What would your platform be?

Well I wasn't around so I would have to base my pics on old data, but I would probably have gone for somebody like Mira. Not inspired choice, at all. more a case of a choosing a person that puzzles me.

I don't think the reasoning for the lynches, I just never got that "elf vibe" from Wilwa and I thought it unlikely that both Sally and Lottie were wolves.

Anyways I am here, I am very tired, but I should stay around until an hour or two before voting deadline. Hopefully I will be productive.

[Kath]

Hey. I'm actually here for voting! I've got about two hours til it's bedtime for me. So I'll read through what's happened toDay, comment and vote fairly close together.

[Kath]

So ... yesterDay. Well that was a tragedy unfortunately! I can see the sense in a double lynch, I'm just not sure I'd have double lynched wilwa and sally, especially as their innocence/guilt seemed tied to each other. That said, most people seemed to be assuming that one or the other would BE evil so whichever had ended up lynched yesterDay, we'd still have been talking about the other toDay. So in that respect it was an effective move.

With regards to what it tells us about Folwren I don't know. I fully believe that her decision was thought through and while she was pressured time-wise she thought very hard about that decision. However, just because she was focused doesn't mean she's not evil.

Nog kill makes sense. Either he was the Seer and the Elves get rid of him or he's not and the Elves have a fairly trailless kill.

Inzil - interesting point about Shasta, but then I think his suspicion of wilwa was increasing with the end of Day events.

Nerwen - I quite like what Nerwen did with the potential Nog dreams ideas. No reason it couldn't be a summary of what the Elves had thought about during the Night but it's still interesting.

Greenie - said she didn't see the points against wilwa. Should check that. Ooh interesting. Elf-phantom could indeed kill Nog to try and exonerate himself. About Rune, I think the bit at the end of that post you found suspicious was joking, it doesn't always come across well in text. Good suspicions post, lots of reasoning.

Lommy - heh, I just repeated pretty much what she said. Yeah phantom probably is more likely to be innocent given sally was. No reason he couldn't be saying 'I always save my fellows' and then cheerfully sending them to the gallows though! A second Day of suspecting Celuien ... when she hadn't been around in a full Day. I'd like to have seen at least a post from Celuien before Lommy brought this up again.

Rune - yeah I agree with him. Folwren doing nothing would have been less useful to analysing the village as a whole than what she did do.

Legate - ... and what he said.

Folwren - yeah she looks pretty good. Not defensive over yesterDay ... but then not overly questioned either. Can see why she'd worry about Legate voting her, but then not everyone checks the admin thread.

Thinking now.

Oh and I should say in warning. I am in uni up til deadline toMorrow. Seriously I WILL NOT be online. Don't make me Rep to make me talk. It won't happen.

[Kath]

So, regarding potential Reps:

Celuien - YES. I'd have her as Rep. I don't find her suspicious and it would be good to give her a chance to show what she'd do with power. Plus it might give Lommy some actual reasoning behind suspecting her.

Foley - NO. I'd have her again in the future. I think she did as good a job as could be expected under the circumstances yesterday. But I don't see the need to have one person two days in a row.

Greenie - NO. I like what I've seen from her so far. She posts well and pertinently. But I'd like to check her over a bit more in depth first, just about her opinions on wilwa the last couple of Days.

Lommy - NO. I didn't like the focus on Celuien despite having nothing from her for a whole Day.

Mira - NO. She turned up and posted lots and seemed involved yesterDay. I'd like her to keep that up. But like me I think she'd be pushed for time if a Rep.

Nerwen - DEPENDS. If phantom is one then no, if not then yes. We'd just get 4 pages of argument again!

phantom - see Nerwen.

Rune - NO. I don't know why. Gut feeling.

Shasta - NO. Good loudmouth to keep people involved. But two days running.

Eonwe - NO. Again when he's there he seems really involved so it's good to keep him in the whole Day. But again I don't see the need to have a person two Days running.

Inzil - YES. Again seems to be posting well.

So Celuien, phantom/Nerwen or Inzil.

If Celuien is ok for time then I'd quite like to vote her. If she's short then I'll probably go with Inzil.

Ok, so I'll be about maybe 45 minutes longer. So post, question or tell me about timing issues in that time! Then I'll vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Here's my current thoughts about people (very rough, though):

Celuien - like I said, I hope to read more from her now that she is here. I don't want to forget her just because she hasn't been posting for a while.
Foley - like I said, inclined to think innocent, and would like to hear her opinions on people (which is what I hoped for also yesterDay already).
Greenie - I had generally good feeling about her, although now that sally's been proven innocent, one could start wondering about her constant case against her. I think it might do me good to re-read her posts sometime.
Kath - I would like to read more from her too. I have very little idea about her.
Lommy - spoke about her before, I still think her probably innocent
Mira - hmmm??? Need to read more from her than just short posts and lists of others' quotes.
Nerwen - I spoke about her also before, I am sort of being made uncertain, aside from Rune, she might be another person to consider my vote for
Phantom - after sally's death, lots of "conspiracy theories" get clearer shape or can be straightaway dismissed. However, I still think (or maybe: especially now I think) that him being a fellow of Lottie is not proven entirely impossible. But he remains the same phantom for me: considering all he's been doing, in some ways curious but not really wolf-y, and with some things seeming more innocent. I want to see him post, though (!!! would have never believed that I'm going to say that), might be that just I started to miss my daily dose of phantomisms...
Rune - questions, questions, questions. See above and all around, actually right now I am not thinking of anything but him (hope you're happy, Rune )
Shasta - still not any particular opinion about him, at least he does not stand out in any way, but neither as SoE nor as innocent.
Steve - from the initial trust I am starting to think of him more like of a person who might be slipping under the radars, which begins to worry me slightly. I don't have any reasons to suspect him, but he sort of stays out of the harm's way.
Zil - he is sort of inquisitive, a bit Boro-like, which now makes me think him more innocentish.

I don't want to stay up too late toDay, so I will probably vote rather early. I hope to see as many posts as I can up to then.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Legate

I want to see him post, though (!!! would have never believed that I'm going to say that), might be that just I started to miss my daily dose of phantomisms...

Ha ha!

I'm working on it. I just started pg 13, so I have (checks) 56 posts left to go before I can comment on yesterday, the lynches, and the night-kill.

After that I'll take a look at today.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Kath

About Rune, I think the bit at the end of that post you found suspicious was joking, it doesn't always come across well in text.

Oh, I'm quite sure he wasn't being 100 % serious, but be it a joke or serious concern the tone of it was slightly eyebrow-raising while the rest of the post was not.

Hmm. It's getting late so I should vote and be off to bed.. Still not sure who I want as my rep toDay though. Not Kath, apparently, if she won't be around - a pity since I'm liking her more with everything she posts.


EDIT: x-ed with another Kath! Yay!

[A Little Green]

I'm debating right now between phantom, Lommy, Rune and Zil. I'm not sure if I should play it safe and vote someone I believe is innocent (the first two) or vote someone I have a hard time reading in hopes of improving the situation (the latter two). Still, even innocents can make the wrong choice.. Argh. I'll still hang around for some fifteen minutes maybe (unless something drastic happens) before deciding.

[A Little Green]

All right. Of the four I mentioned in my previous post..

Not phantom. He's already been a rep, and what is more, I haven't seen his opinions toDay yet so I have no idea who he suspects and who he doesn't - and I'd prefer a rep who thinks even somewhat along the same lines as I do.

Not Lommy. She, too, has already been a rep, and I don't think that much can be learned from her being one again.

Rune or Inzil for me, then. Both kind of shots in the dark. I'd like to know a bit more about both though.

[A Little Green]

Epic quadruple-posting? Come on, guys!

I've decided to go for

++ Inzil for representative

Because I'm really interested in seeing what he will do with the power if he indeed becomes a rep. Also because I hope putting him under some pressure and forcing him to make a decision will help me make out his alignment. In a nutshell: because an innocent Inzil can make a good decision on my behalf, and an evil Inzil will hopefully be revealed. All that could have applied to Runne son of Bjarrne as well, but he's slightly less impossible to read than Inzil which is why I ended up voting the latter.

[Folwren]

I know that it'd be nice if I could get an outline of what I think of people up right now, but I can't. Class starts in about six minutes.

So I'll vote for my rep right now...

++Greenie for rep

and hope that later I'll be able to get on and give my opinion of people. I'm so sorry I'm not much involved today...I have been up since 6:30 today and seriously have had next to NO down time.

-- Foley

X-posted with Greenie's vote

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Since I do not think that I am going to learn much more from other people before I head to sleep, I have discounted Foley from my options for the vote for Rep - and also, as it's been noted by others, she has been a Rep last time, so let's change the setting a bit. I am thinking about Rune or Nerwen. Rune I wanted to see for a long time, but this far didn't have the opportunity to do so (or rather, didn't take the opportunity); putting Nerwen into the Rep position would actually help me clarify some more things about her right now. Right now I am inclined to go with Rune, actually, since right now I feel okay with it and if I didn't do it now and remained uncertain of him, then if I wanted to do it later on, with less people, I might not be so sure anymore and rather keep with people I trust more. So yes, I will probably do it, but since I am going to stay around still for a while (a very little while, though), I will check back still and see if anybody else posts, and then vote.

EDIT: x-ed with three votes.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I just looked over all of Mira's posts, not that it says much. . . I think there was 10 or something like that.

Except for not being around I did not find anything overly suspicious about her. I think Boro might have been right when he said that a Mira-Elf would be easy to spot.

Even though the post was short and only covered a few people, I thought that what she said about Phantom in post 505 made sense and that her thoughts about Nog seemed innocent.

I don't know what to make of her large Sally-post, it was terribly long, but mostly just listed things Sally had said without concluding much. If this was a tendency in her posts I would be worried, but for now I think she is al-right.

So yeah. . . I take back what I said earlier about her. She seems OK.

[the phantom]

Inzil- I don't particularly like the way he led off Day 2 asking, "Why is Phantom still alive?" It sounds too much like the subtext is, "Why not kill TP? I would've killed TP. But he's alive. I'm not an Elf." And of course I still don't like his Day 1 comment I mentioned yesterday- his encouragement of people not to Rep-vote. His chief suspects were certainly Wilwa and I, and he said that he wanted Wilwa dead before Sally, but he voted Shasta for Rep (Shasta had been after Sally). I'm not sure if that's suspicious so much as it's... confusing.

Nerwen- I wasn't a fan of her reaction to the Night 1 kill. In post #335 I made Izzy look like a silly choice for the Elves to have made, and Nerwen responds in #339 saying that she was perfectly logical and even Seerish etc, and it almost sounded like someone who was offended justifying their kill- "It was a good kill!", which was of course the reaction I was fishing for. I also don't like that where I keep track of "innocent beliefs" I have pretty much nothing from either of the first two days (honest-to-goodness statements of trust in people, not just agreeing with what they say in other words).

Shasta- My main reason to suspect him is the fact that on Day 1 he was definitely after Sally over Lottie, and then yesterday he really really tried to contradict any theory that placed Sally and I as innocent due to Lottie's lynching. Sort of like he was really wanting to tie his dead pack-mate to Sally or I so that her lynching would not have been in vain. BUT- I'm wanting to not suspect him as much due to his dislike for some of Legate's stuff. Shasta, you said this- "More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more." I had the opposite reaction actually. Remember earlier in the day you said that Legate was "preparing for Sally to flip up innocent or guilty"? Well, I saw his vote to protect Sally as a way to make him look good when she flipped innocent. What do you think?

Legate- I didn't like his Rep vote Day 1 or on Day 2. Day 1 he looked too tentative and yesterday he chose someone that wouldn't be there and had stated a view contrary to his. And then the way he worded his vote was less "Cel is guilty" but rather emphasized "I like Sally". Where as the day before he was willing to find her guilty. So perhaps he saw her fate as sealed already and changed views to look better?

Green- I have little to say here other than she was certainly for lynching Sally over Lottie on Day 1 and sought to keep Sally under the gun yesterday. Plus as Nog often says, she's just creepy.

Rune- I'd really like to see more of him today, and wouldn't mind seeing what he'd do with a Rep vote, though I'll have to see more of his suspicions before I decide whether or not to actually give him my vote. I liked him on the first day and just couldn't get much of anything from him yesterday.

Steve- I'd like to see him be a bit more forceful with accusations and defenses, but he did an excellent job at the end of yesterday with the way he approached the lynch. I don't mean so much that his vote was good, but what he said about his top suspects etc and with them both turning up innocent- it somehow makes me think him extremely innocent.

Lommy- Ah, well, if she's an Elf she can just ride her Day 1 vote to victory, right? Hoo boy... doesn't it make you nervous to write someone off? But yeah, I'm still content to completely leave her alone, and looking forward to reading her thoughts today.

Kath- I've got nothing. I'm thrilled that she showed up and posted, but due to the lack of actual back-and-forth I can hardly claim to have much of a feel for her.

Mira- A bit like Kath. I just really would like to see more from her. And if both Mira and Kath are Elves, well... that would make me angry.

Foley- Her vote was perfect if an Elf, but can hardly be used against her. We put her in a position she never should've been in, and I almost want to give her a free pass through the day on the chance she is an Orc, as that was completely unfair to her.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And then the way he worded his vote was less "Cel is guilty" but rather emphasized "I like Sally". Where as the day before he was willing to find her guilty. So perhaps he saw her fate as sealed already and changed views to look better?

That's the tiny nuances, phantom, but first, if you look, I was thinking, originally, that it was unlikely that she is a Wolf if Lottie was. Later, after Nerwen's post earlier that day, I began to doubt that. But it was on the same day, not the day before, as you say, and actually it was the other way around; later in the Day, I didn't mind so much if she was lynched (as I said: if it came to that there wouldn't be any better option, I could even vote her myself, although it was a rather unlikely possibility), in any case, we'd learn something: but she was still way, way behind other people I would have liked to vote for - and therefore I liked that my vote worked the way that it would need at least two people to vote her (if you imagine yourself in that situation, I cannot imagine a better way of expressing your opinion: I am leaving, some people are still going to vote after me; so I suspect this one more, you need one vote to lynch him, this one I suspect less, you need two votes to lynch him).

EDIT: x-ed with Rune.

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and I don't really have almost anything to say. Feeling like going off to bed.
Just -

Kath - I don't intentionally "concentrate" on Cel. I just don't suspect anyone else atm, which is kinda bad.

Since Zil is already a rep, I'm probably going to vote Rune or Nerwen, since both are unsures leaning innocent, which is something I favour in a rep.

Currently speculating phantom-Greenie-Kath pack and that would be quite awesome of them. Not that I really believe in this theory but it's creepy and kind of fits...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

And now I have looked through Celuien's posts and I will have add her on my list of suspects.

She hasn't said much, her first post of considerably substance was post 153 and the things she say here are not unreasonable, but also very uncontroversial and not difficult for an Elf to produce.

When only Boro, Sally and Lottie had received votes she defended the Phantom and stated that she thought the attacks on Lottie and Sally was silly. It could very well be an attempt to save a fellow elf. Again she does not invest a lot in the defence, but chooses to focus her next posts on Boro. Of course she could have just jumped on Sally instead of Boro, it would probably have have been easier, but the problem would be that the cases against Sally and Lottie was more or less identical. It would be hard to argue for the one, but not the other (at least until one of them had been lynched).

It is of course hard to conclude anything from so few posts, but I do think she looks bad.

[Eönwë]

Sorry everyone, I was going to write a list of all the votes so far and stuff, but I'm just exhausted and have a cold, so just a few comments from me.

As many have said so far, I don't really think we can blame Foley for the lynch. Most people (including me) seemed to be almost certain that one of the two would be evil (though the general consensus was that if one was; the other wasn't, I believe), and if one had been evil, a double lynch would have taken care of the problem. However, if we look at it positively, I think we would have wasted time toDay arguing over whether one of yesterDay's two lynchees (had one survived) was evil, since people suspected them for different reasons.


Also:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

By the way, I had a dream

I almost had a heart attack when I read that.