WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And anyway, if half the village votes for someone, then it isn't quite so random Legate seems to think (or would like us to think?). Even if all the wolves were included (which I doubt), it would still leave at least four innocents thinking him suspicious - most probably five or even six (I agree at least one wolf must have bite the chance). So what were you aiming at Legate claiming that randomness? You can't say Shasta wasn't looking suspicious with his odd to and fro with Lottie and "out of the blue" suspicions (made incredibly poorly) on Pitch?

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"

The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him, especially e.g. Pitch's questioning of his points was justified, I think (regardless of Shasta's innocence, the points he raised had objectively poor grounds), but I am more like wondering - and I said that if you have read correctly - that I thought Lottie far more suspicious, and wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

I must say now, that from the recent posts I feel a bit better about skip and Nog - the former gives a sort of believable explanation of his thoughts (an explanation less likely for a Wolf to make up, I think) and the latter's response to me sounds also rather genuine. I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

As for Shasta's dream, I find it equally possible that he dreamed of guilty Pitch or innocent Nerwen. I see that Boro's points are rather convincing, but still they are not 100% and I am inclined to believe Pitch innocent, so it seems more acceptable for me to think that Shasta dreamed of innocent Nerwen. But nothing is set in stone, I am not going to put anything down as given now. I will however keep considering these two as the most likely options.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

[Nogrod]

Left my PC open while getting ready to sleep...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

No, not at all. By "randomness" I was referring to the fact that we are unable to track Wolves very well from the lynch - since basically everybody has voted for the same person. But actually I have revised my point about this since then, as there are at least a few votes that stand out in one way or another. But still, it is "randomness" in the sense that we can't say "well this vote made the difference between lynching person X and person Y, what does it say about the voter?"
The wonder about so many people voting Shasta was unrelated to this. I can see why people suspected him

Okay. I think I see now what you mean. I read it differently in the beginning ("random" added to how you claimed Shasta was "in no way suspicious").

But as I think we see, the issue seems now to be what Shasta said, and did he leave any hints; did he dream of an innocent or a wolf; did he play carefully or recklessly etc.? And I think a few of us should take an independent look back there so that we could compare what people see.

Okay, off for now.