Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Pitchwife]

First impressions up to now:

1. INNOCENT
Mr Unculpable (that's me)

2. LOOKING GOOD
Shasta - his one post so far was fine and very reasonable, I'd like more of the same

3. LOOKING MOSTLY GOOD
Nerwen - mostly very reasonable, except her post about "how to get rid of Tom"; if that was a joke (as I think most probable, it can't really see her thinking that in earnest), it could have done with a smiley for disambiguation.
wilwa - agrees with Lottie on not 'wasting a lynch' on the BW (not good IMO); otherwise pretty reasonable and engaged, no wilwolf chirpyness (good)
Zil - is his usual laid back, reasonable and laconic self; don't trust him out of my eyesight, but more on general principles than because of anything really suspicious as of now.

4. LOOKING STILL SLIGHTLY MORE GOOD THAN BAD
Agan - is all over the place with plans and ideas which I don't find very helpful at all, interspersed with a lot of good points here & there; I wouldn't quite rule out the possibility of her being the cobbler, but mostly, she looks to me up to now more genuine and like an innocent doing some experimental thinking aloud than a baddie.
Nogrod - I agree with him about Agan's plans, not so sure I agree with his conclusions; and this

Originally Posted by Nog

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal?

is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is? On the other hand, that's been the first reasoned suspicion of the Day, bonus points for that
Volo - I can't quite follow all of his thoughts about the BW, but he doesn't look too bad all in all; in any case I haven't played with him before, so bar any blatant wolvery he'll get a pass toDay

5. COULD GO EITHER WAY
Eomer - his behaviour and vote rather remind me of my Eo-packmate from a few games ago; problem is, they also remind me of an innocent Eomer I've played with before, so I don't really have a clue.
Greenie - wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, which isn't necessarily evil per se, except it could be an attempt by a Little Green Wight to distract us from discussing her role with her worst-case scenario of five baddies working in team; good point about wolvish vs wightish knowledge & behaviour in #37, though.
TEW - protests his innocence a bit much indeed (btw, Shasta, it's 'thou dost', not 'you doth'); first says we should lynch all baddies (good), then flipflops and agrees with Lottie and Glirdan to leave the BW be (not good); some observations on BW, wolf and cobbler behaviour which I don't quite agree with, but don't look devious IMO.

6. LOOKING NOT SO GOOD
Glirdan - first (in chronological order) this:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

'Only' dangerous to the best assets we have vs 3 wolves and 2 cobblers???
Second, I don't really get how we could use Agan's voting plan to 'oust the cobblers'. Confusing.
Third, his vote is plain nonsense (with all the discussion we've had toDay, you can't do better than a random vote?).

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

8. NO IDEA FOR LACK OF INPUT
Kath - exists and has posted, wow!
Form - hates Day 1, as susual; waiting for more
sally - nothing but early banter; has a cold, therefore excused for now

Conclusions (as of now, liable to be revised on further evidence):

WON'T VOTE FOR
Anybody from group 1-4 and 8

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE FOR
Group 5

MIGHT VOTE FOR
Group 6, i.e. Glirdan

WILL PROBABLY VOTE FOR
Group 7, i.e. Lottie


EDIT: x-ed from #64 down

[A Little Green]

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

Will try to get to bed now. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch, Sally and Agan

[A Little Green]

A few quick comments before bed.. (Ouch, I'm starting to sound like my dad )

Pitch's post I crossed with made me feel loads better about him. (Plus I'm impressed by how many reasoned opinions he can have at this point!) Good I didn't end up voting him. Still keeping an eye open though, we all know how agreeable he can be

I don't like the Agan-wagan (no sorry, wagon, couldn't resist). Eomer's vote like I've said before was bantery; Volo's reasoning I'm not sure I understand at all, and Sally's looks - bandwaggonish. I'm really torn about Agan, for the most part she's been stirring up discussion and coming up with all kinds of plans, could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us. So, in sum, I haven't seen anything from her that would strongly point either way, which is why I don't think she's our worst option toDay (apart from the fact that she hasn't played in a long while), but certainly not the best, either: I think we have better candidates.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa - stop x-posting with me guys, I'm trying to leave!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

and this is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is?

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them thel ess people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Originally Posted by Agan

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Bah, you guys keep posting too fast...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yowiebowiedavidglowie!
1. Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party. Instead, the Wolves.
2. The BW needs to be the last wight standing, so it is in xis favour to keep at least one Wolf alive, for the game to progress faster. Now if(when) we manage to lynch two Wolves, BW will be quite the Cobbler, though not as self-sacrificing as one. At that point especially it would be beneficial not to have xim reveal what xe knows openly.

First, I don't understand why you think the BW will get any information from who he's stunned. Second, why on earth would he reveal himself? The village could then lynch him, or Tom could then kill him, he would never do that, even if he was being lynched.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by Boro

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

Thanks. That clears that up. So basically the BW could totally be on our side right now. He can help get rid of the wolvies and then he will get his magic killing powers, which he probably would really like to have. So right now he is on our side in the sense that he also wants the wolves dead, but once that's accomplished he'll want to kill everyone.

x'ed with Agan x 2 and Nog

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Can't happen, he needs to be alone at the end, which means no more wolves. Once the wolves are gone he can slowly pick off the remaining innocents (and I guess the Cobblers would be innocents at that point, if the wolves are gone, or would they start helping the BW?)

Oh, and another question, if the wolves were to kill Barliman the same Night that BW chooses Barliman, does that mean the wolves still get a kill the following Night?

[Aganzir]

Pitch guess what? I'm drinking mate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").

I still disagree with this. Who said the BW will only try to stun the gifteds? How about trying to find Ferny, or even a wolf to make things more difficult for them? You misunderstood what I originally meant, fine, why do you have to keep implying things that weren't there? I already realised it was a bad idea, thanks to wilwa.

And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

Ah but I am. Or doesn't your behaviour count as suspicious by your standards?

Okay thanks Boro.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it.

I was under the impression the BW only needed to survive till the end - I didn't apparently interpret "last man standing" quite so literally. But yeah this makes things clearer.

edit: xed with Kath - I provided a tally in #85.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog replying to me re Agan's 2nd plan

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

Yes, but the BW doesn't know who the gifted's are, they can only guess, just like the wolves; and like the wolves, they can be lucky and hit the nail on the head, but (speaking from personal experience) just as often or more often they'll be as much groping in the dark as the ordos. As I've said, there's a lot of problems with Agan's plan, but that's not one of them.
(Unless, say, the narration should happen to mention that e.g. the Seer's dream was blocked by the BW. In this case, the Seer obviously shouldn't say anything about being stunned, and any innocent worth a pinch of salt should know better than say they weren't and help the wolves finding the Seer by default.)

Originally Posted by Nog

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them the less people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Yes, yes, and yes. I think I said as much in fewer words already.

Originally Posted by Nog

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it. Hmmm...
Someone, I think wilwa?, has raised the question what would happen if the sole survivors are BW + a lone wolf or BW + a lone innocent. BW can't kill the wolf, BW can't kill the innocent; wolf can't kill BW, innocent can't lynch BW*, so I guess both of these scenarios would be considered a draw. What would happen if the last survivors are BW and Tom? Tom could kill BW -> village victory; unless BW stuns him, but then Tom will get xem the next Night - xe can't stun the same person two Nights in a row, can xe?
*(or wait - actually, if BW and lone innocent vote for each other, there'll be a coin-flip, so we might still get lucky!)
Anyway, there's no way the BW can win with either the wolves or the village.

(x-ed with the mod: Oops! Adjust what I said about endgame scenarios accordingly.)

EDIT: also x-ed with #81 down