WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Answer your question?

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. If I was a wolf who actually read the speculation we went through the last few hours I would have claimed to be the hunter. More or less nothing to lose for the wolves but lots to gain.

And you others... you just go for that, just that easily? Isn't that what a wolf would love to do?

I mean she can be the hunter, but this one-minded agreement scares me a lot.

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no? I think that was one thing there. But in any case, at least for now there is no counter-claim... at least for myself (and I think Europeans in general), I am not going to wait for it (not to speak of that it could've been Greenie or somebody who's away...)

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well it's not at least that I'd completely trust her, but I figure that if she is not the Hunter, it will show by that she does not take anybody with her, no?

Yes it will, and the wolves will have bagged the heir in the worst scenario as well...

It will remain to be seen in the future whether it was a good choice...

A good choice for who?

[Thinlómien]

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues. Yes, they get the heir, but given that we cannot really play so that our first aim is not to let them have him (otherwise we'd just be lynching ordos) the chance is rather big anyway.


xed with Leg and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Nog, seriously, what does a wolf gain from fake-revealing as the hunter? We know they were a wolf, so we get clues.

If she manages to get the real hunter to reveal it's a mess. But yes, you're right. If she's a wolf and the real hunter stays low now we'll have something. The wolves would gain a lot more by revealing as some other role, that's actually true.

But they get the heir. That's something as well. A new wolf is the hardest to track and we lose our chance of getting the one. If that one is alive in the first place...

Okay, I don't like this at all and I need to go to sleep. I'll relocate and hopefully vote then.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something (and it wouldn't have been a nice-sounding something, either, if you'd taken out my special role!).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, fine, here we go...

++Lottie

*crosses fingers*

Good Night, folks.

[elronds_daughter]

Hrmmm. This heir business is incredibly confusing.

I suppose I don't see much harm in the hunter-reveal, even if Lottie's is fake. If she's the hunter, we'll know, and odds seem fairly good that she'd get a wolf on her way out, and then we can resume playing as usual, with all this heir stuff over and done with. If she's a wolf, we'll know it and start playing with a more normal mentality (if this can ever be called "normal"), albeit at a disadvantage.

Either way, though, the heir will be out of the way and everyone's confusion will lessen considerably (mine probably most of all).

Right. Much to think about before I vote. Hopefully Supreme Overlord Shasta will be around soon to answer the questions directed his way...I would rather not vote without the answers.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I wouldn't be that cruel. If the Heir had already died I'd have said something.

Thanks for the info. Allright. We're deep in trouble.

- We don't want to lynch an ordo as the numbers are dwindling fast.
- We don't want to lynch a wolf as it would only give them a new one we had no take on thus far and we'd be unsure whether we lynched a wolf or not and thus couldn't basically read anything from the death.
- In terms of numbers we'd like to kill a gifted, but the lack of knowledge on the dead would give us little else (ie. something to deduce from). Unless it is the hunter we kill, but that way we risk 2/3 chance of killing one more innocent (or gifted) with the same blow.

So who should we lynch? All the options look bad.

If there were reasons to believe the heir is already dead I would have gone for the wolves whatever the consequences, just out of pure frustration.

But now Lottie-option is starting to look like the only one available (unless there is a competing revealment). If she's a wolf, that's masterly played.

As I need to leave this early, I would have liked to leave another option for those who vote after me, if there'd be some new evidence, but as she seems to have already 5 votes out of 11 possible, and one for Lommy and another for Eomer it looks like a done deal. *blah*

Well as it is so, I'll vote for a wolf then (with the working hypothesis that Lottie is lynched and is either the hunter or a wolf).

Eomer is up to no good.

Lommy's going for Boro bothers me.

Legate's detachment bothers me.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I suppose Lottie's the big choice... I REALLY wonder what she meant, but..

++Lottie

She did ask for it.

[elronds_daughter]

Nog, I'm starting to see your point about all this blind agreement...

[Nogrod]

Writing of the previous post took me over half an hour (at this time of night) as my computer seems to just get jammed, jammed, jammed, jammed...

So without further ado.

++ Eomer

He's most probably a wolf and ripe for taking with you Lottie - had you powers for that. You'll find the reason from the thread (not from me though) if you just read closely enough.


On another note. If I'm not around toMorrow, do remember that those with confident understanding of the game-mechanics are more likely those who have gone through different options together. My learning curve toDay is a prime example of what happens when one just plunges in and starts to think in situ.


Okay. I hope Lottie is the hunter and picks well.

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").

Well, nothing to be done about that now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I fear she is the hunter and picks badly - and I have a nagging feeling she could be a wolf from a bold bunch (see killing Sally last Night and "throwing the ball back to us").

Hmm, I don't see that likely being the case (her being a wolf), the wolves really wouldn't have all that much to gain by doing that. Yeah, they get the Heir, but then the village would know right away that Lottie wasn't the real hunter, so we'd look at her posts tomorrow and maybe be able to narrow down her mates, and we'd still have all 3 of our original Gifteds. Atleast with lynching the Hunter the wolves can hope that another innocent is taken down with them, but if the Hunter is left up for them to kill then they are the only one's at risk.

Plus, I would think if she was lying the real Hunter would have come forward and said something by now, so that they could be sure to be the one lynched instead of the fake one (gosh, that is a weird thing to say, wanting to lynch the real Hunter instead of the known wolf ). Actually, that's another reason Lottie is likely not a wolf. The real Hunter could have easily come forward, been lynched instead, and taken her down with him (giving the Heir to the village, and accomplishing nothing positive for the wolves).

So basically I still think this was a good idea. We just hope Lottie is lucky enough to take a wolf, and then we get the Heir (so we still have all of our Gifteds), then tomorrow we can just start playing like usual.

I don't think I'll be able to come on again, I am so sorry at my awful participation, hopefully Day 3 will be better for me.


++Lottie