WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Nessa Telrunya]

I apologize for my Voteless state yesterDay. I just couldn't decide who to vote, because at this point, it's easier to do more harm than good.

But, with the death of Boro, I'm really starting to look at Lommy. Sure, it would be a bit risky to bring that much attention to yourself with going consistently after one person, but it would also be a great way to be unpredictable-a perfectly wolfish strategy.

I'm going to go back and reread her posts...

[wilwarin538]

Greenie? Well....I guess they figured Nessa would likely be protected, and so they didn't want to take the risk of not getting their kill. They probably didn't believe Greenie to be the Hunter, with so few people left and the fact that they could win toDay with the proper lynch, I doubt they'd risk the Hunter taking one of them down. So they may have felt she was the Ranger?

Anyway, so this is who's left:

Wilwa
Lommy
LRH
Legate
Nessa

That's 2 wolves, 1 Ranger and 2 Ordos. And Nessa is a known innocent.

So my options for who to vote for are the 3 L's. I am fairly equaly unsure of all 3 of them. YesterDay I know I wasn't really suspicious of anyone, but now that'd be a really dumb way of thinking, considering 2/3 of those people are wolves. So I'm going to go take a closer look at their posts.

[Thinlómien]

Argh. Placed my bets in the wrong place last Night, it seems. On the other hand, so did apparently Greenie herself so maybe I shouldn't feel bad. And yes, I'm trying to say:

I'm Aragorn, also known as the ranger.

The successful save was Eomer, as you have probably guessed. I'm not going to say a word about the other picks though, because the wolves shouldn't know if I have protected myself already or not.

So that narrows the possible wolves down to Legate, Wilwa and LRH, which means there are two wolves in those three. Nicely done, guys, but toDay we have 2/3 hitting one of you and once we do, you're going to have tough time with me still alive.

I was rereading the thread yesterday and I made some observations on people, I'm now going to edit my notes to some form which might be readable. Basically I ended up thinking the wolves are LRH and Wilwa, but I was terribly annoyed with Legate and Greenie because I was going to be so mad if they managed to fool me (again). Now I'd be inclined to think either LRH or Wilwa is actually innocent and Legate is guilty because my first reaction was that he'd been the least likely pick by Greenie. Have to check her posts to get a better idea, though.

One more thing. Nessa, you are of utmost importance toDay, because you are, for sure, innocent. So please play as much and think as throughly as you can, because if we fail toDay, we lose the game. I hope I'm not sounding too patronising but this game is seriously killing me with all the pressure...

[Thinlómien]

Okay so here come my quotes/points...

1.

I haven't played with you before, so I won't be voting for you toDay. Typical newbie pass. Hyper-nerviness is a common wolf-cub trait, however.

Zil to Rondie. Is this subtle advice?

2. Why did the wolves kill Eomer in the first place? Because he suspected Legate or for some other reason?

3. I find it interesting that when Sally died, Legate speculated about her death but failed to mention the most probable reason for her being killed: the wolves wanting to kill an ordo. Would a wolf have the cheek to do this? Wilwa, on the other hand quickly agreed with my thory about the wolves targeting Sally for ordoness. Now I know one of them has to be a wolf, but I'm just wondering which is a more furry approach: avoid mentioning the real kill reason (assuming I and various others were right) although it's obvious or agreeing with the innocent Captain Obvious who points it out. If it helps to know, Zil agreed with me.

4.

Originally Posted by Legate

"Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!! "

This looks like genuine frustration to me. I mean, a wolf could point the same thing out as it's kind of obvious Nog's suggestion was silly, but would a wolf be so outraged by it?

5.

Originally Posted by Legate

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

Would a wolf suggest this? Could...?

6.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Hmm, I don't see that likely being the case (her [Lottie] being a wolf), the wolves really wouldn't have all that much to gain by doing that. Yeah, they get the Heir, but then the village would know right away that Lottie wasn't the real hunter, so we'd look at her posts tomorrow and maybe be able to narrow down her mates, and we'd still have all 3 of our original Gifteds. Atleast with lynching the Hunter the wolves can hope that another innocent is taken down with them, but if the Hunter is left up for them to kill then they are the only one's at risk.

Plus, I would think if she was lying the real Hunter would have come forward and said something by now, so that they could be sure to be the one lynched instead of the fake one (gosh, that is a weird thing to say, wanting to lynch the real Hunter instead of the known wolf ). Actually, that's another reason Lottie is likely not a wolf. The real Hunter could have easily come forward, been lynched instead, and taken her down with him (giving the Heir to the village, and accomplishing nothing positive for the wolves).

So basically I still think this was a good idea. We just hope Lottie is lucky enough to take a wolf, and then we get the Heir (so we still have all of our Gifteds), then tomorrow we can just start playing like usual.

I don't think I'll be able to come on again, I am so sorry at my awful participation, hopefully Day 3 will be better for me.

++Lottie

This post made me cry wolf. Not that the tone is off, but I find it weird Wilwa is around so little but she still manages to think about the tactical situation quite thoroughly and manages to think from the wolves' pow. I'm not saying thinking from the wolves' pow is criminal - I always do it and for a certain reason have been doing it extra much this time - but the relative amount of Wilwa's insightfulness has come from making smart comments on the wolves' probable thoughts, so it's really making me wonder. This post is a good example.

7. Legate made analyses of Nessa and LRH the Day before yesterDay. Would he have been drawing spotlight to a newbie fellow like that? Seems a little unfair and unlikely. If Legate and LRH are not fellows, Wilwa is a wolf for sure.

8.

Originally Posted by Rondie

I'm finding my first instinct is to agree with Eomer that Inzil feels a tad slippery. Odd as this may sound, he just doesn't seem suspicious enough to not be suspicious. By which I mean, he doesn't seem to be throwing enough blame around. Which may just be coincidence, or may be an attempt to get by under the radar. And by "blame" I mean "large concentrations of suspicion". He's flung little bits and pieces of "it could be you" around at nearly everyone, but, even looking back through everything, I can't find any substantial claims.

Is this wolf-on-wolf? Not sure...

9. So which is more guilty this (including a vote for Zil in the following post) or this (xpost of the other)? Can't honestly say, and one of them has to be a wolf. I think it's more likely Wilwa is furry but I'm not sure at all.

10.

Originally Posted by Rondie

Still not entirely sure about anyone other than Nessa, but the fact that Legate is worried about my behavior makes me think he could be innocent.

?????

11. Legate wanted to go through Zil's posts himself and not rely on others. Now, I'm often like this as innocent but seldom as wolf. Just wondering if Legate functions by the same logic...

12. Rondie's vote yesterDay was fishy.

13. Absolutely no idea what to make of Wilwa not voting yesterDay...

Now, I have a 5-6 page essay to write toDay but honestly this is such a Day that I just have to devote time to this game - now or never - so I'll be here as much as I can. I want to look through everybody's posts yesterDay because the wolves were obviously trying to avoid the hunter and maybe hit the ranger, so who wasn't picked by them might tell a lot, as well as if we managed to figure out Greenie's pick, because they are innocent.

Btw, while typing this post I realised exactly how important toDay is. One innocent vote gone wrong and game's over because the wolves can just jump on the bandwagon. So please please Nessa and you unknown innocent, be careful. I will be careful too.

Although if I have to say something, I think Wilwa is the safest bet for lynch toDay, both because LRH and Legate don't very much look like fellows, Legate gives me the most innocent vibes out of the three and LRH is the kind of easy lynch victim whom I wouldn't vote at this point without double-checking my own reasoning...

Anyway, far from decided now! As I said, going to do some rereading but first I'll start on the essay, especially as no one else seems to be around.

[Thinlómien]

Couldn't concentrate on the essay, so decided to have look on yesterDay. Trying to think from the wolves' pow and be objective, but can't guarantee I think the same way they did. Judging hunter picks as if hunters acted straightforwardly (hunted the same people they suspect) which is admittedly not even close to waterproof.

Greenie
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Lommy
giftedish behaviour? impossible to say
good kill for: Wilwa. Kind of good for me. Elra and Legate would've been gambling.

Legate
probable hunter picks: Elra, not Lommy, Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? gives failry ungifted vibes if you ask me. (Now I know that sounds pretty mean but it was only meant in the ww role sense. )
good kill for: Wilwa, Lommy. Not for Elra.

Lommy
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? I don't think I was being obvious but I'm not maybe the best judge for this.
good kill for: Wilwa. Elra and Legate in danger.

Rondie
probable hunter picks: not Legate
giftedish behaviour? no...?
good kill for: Legate, others would be very unsure.

Wilwa
probable hunter picks: not Lommy
giftedish behaviour? kind of - it would have been a brilliant move for the hunter not to vote or mention more suspects, I wonder if the wolves thought about this.
good kill for: nobody or anybody, depends how you read it. Best for me, unless she was double-bluffing.


So in total (leaving myself out)
Good kills for Wilwa: Greenie, Legate and Lommy. Elra not a bad choice.
Good kills for Elra: Wilwa. Others suspected her, Legate the most.
Good kills for Legate: Elra. Wilwa totally random, Greenie and me slightly dangerous.

So:
Good kills for Wilwa+Elra: None. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).
Good kills for Elra+ Legate: Best kill undoubtedly Wilwa because Lommy & Greenie bot suspected them both
Good kills for Legate+Wilwa: I say Elra would've been the best bet since she trusted Legate and didn't say anything about the others. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).

Greenie probably hunted Elra or Legate, so at least one of them is innocent. Ergo, Wilwa is a wolf.

If you look just at suspects, Greenie would've been the best kill for a team of Wilwa+Rondie, other teams would have probably gone for someone else. I think this logic is fairly valid because the wolves definitely wanted to avoid the hunter taking down one of them, especially as (as far as I see) there were not any special reasons that would make killing someone especially beneficial or especially harmful kill (ie clear ranger or hunter) universally.

Of course, Elra and Legate were probably the most suspected ones yesterDay, so it would have kind of made sense to leave them around to gather votes. But then again, it might have been smart not to attack Wilwa too (dangerous hunter because lack of opinions) or me or Greenie (likely-ish lynch material after Boro proven innocent), so I would regard the suspicions better proof.

Currently quite positive Wilwa is a wolf. Elra and Legate don't look like fellows (if they are, hats off!), and Wilwa looks the least innocent out of the three (although she has been marvellously unsuspicious all along, I have to say). Like I said, the kill points more towards Elra being the other wolf than Legate (and so does my common sense) but I'd prefer lynching Wilwa toDay to lynching Elra because I feel more sure about Wilwa and (sounds so mean to say!) I'd rather meet the wolf cub Elra in next Night's gamble than Wilwa who is an experienced player.

[Thinlómien]

Still no one else around, huh? Not the best Day to be quiet... Then I guess it's timezones. Anyway, I'm going to stop flood-posting for now and since I now know where I stand until new evidence appears I can maybe concentrate on the esaay without being agonising over this game all the time... I'll be online at the same time, though, and refreshing this thread every now and then.

[elronds_daughter]

Unfortunate that toDay is so...momentous. Real life has me writing an entire minuet, due to be performed in less than three hours, and it's not quite half finished.
But I shall take a moment here before I go back to the world of 18th-century counterpoint....

Lommy...I believe you. I think. And I'm inclined to think Wilwa's a wolf. Probably Legate too, if you are who you say you are. (If you aren't, shame on me, but it seems an elaborate lie for this late in the game. So, I think you're being truthsome.)


Right. Now back to channeling Bach.