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Old 05-11-2011, 08:14 AM   #1
wilwarin538
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Silmaril

Okee. So I should be around randomly for the next 4ish hours, and will have to vote a few hours early.

Phantom
Inzil
Nog
Fea
Lottie
Lhuna
Nerwen
Shasta
Wilwa

So, in that list we has a Shelob, a spiderling, a Sam and a dying Frodo. I think the spiderling was created either from the beginning, or on Night 3 (since Night 2 there was no victim, and last Night it was Frodo), I don't know which, and that's annoying since knowing which it is could be helpful. There's a difference between looking for someone who's acted evil from the start, or someone who just started acting evil not too long ago. (unless we do know which it is and I've just missed something) I'm also still working under the assumption that Shelob (and therefore her spiderling) know who Sam is and will be trying to get him lynched (and probably trying to confuse him about Frodo).

So the people who I'd be really really suprised to discover as Shelob: Phantom, Fea and Nog. I'm also inclined to think it's not Inzil. Everyone else looks fishy to me.

I have to go for a bit. Everyone in the game best have posted at least once before I have to go. I want to have a bit of a read on everyone, instead of having so many people I'm unsure about.
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Old 05-11-2011, 08:25 AM   #2
Feanor of the Peredhil
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Due to an unplanned trip out of town for which I will leave shortly (2/3 awesome, 1/3 my favorite English teacher died unexpectedly) I get to vote right now without any idea what I'm doing.

I know who I don't want to vote for (phantom, Nog, wilwa, Lhuna) but that's not for any legitimate reason (oh hi, gut instinct).

That being said, I'm going with

++Lottie

because I have no reason to trust her, but my vote is early enough that if y'all think I'm completely off base, you can treat it accordingly.
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Old 05-11-2011, 08:51 AM   #3
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Finally got home but need to rush in ten minutes to the choir rehersals. So the theory of mine some of you have been wondering in a nutshell. I think you should consider it.

There was one person who as a lonely one didn't like the idea we thought Lhuna okay. If xe was Sam xe would know Sam didn't protect or heal Lhuna and thus be against the common view.

Secondly. There was a clarification of the ruling as to what happens when doctor is attacked. I wondered whether Shelob had asked that from Sally as I didn't see anyone asking it on the thread. Then there was also this slip by Lhuna who seconded Nerwen's suspicion on tp but talked of Doc and not Sam. Well, I thought, keeping many faces is hard and if she had been specially bothered about issues concerning the role of the Doc that would be an understandable error.

If I'm right about this, then I'd think that tp is on the good side as then Lhuna had tried to roll the ball forwards to get him lynched seeing that someone had suspected him already.

Okay. need to run now. Back in about 2½ hours before the DL.
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Old 05-11-2011, 09:51 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod View Post
Finally got home but need to rush in ten minutes to the choir rehersals. So the theory of mine some of you have been wondering in a nutshell. I think you should consider it.

There was one person who as a lonely one didn't like the idea we thought Lhuna okay. If xe was Sam xe would know Sam didn't protect or heal Lhuna and thus be against the common view.

Secondly. There was a clarification of the ruling as to what happens when doctor is attacked. I wondered whether Shelob had asked that from Sally as I didn't see anyone asking it on the thread. Then there was also this slip by Lhuna who seconded Nerwen's suspicion on tp but talked of Doc and not Sam. Well, I thought, keeping many faces is hard and if she had been specially bothered about issues concerning the role of the Doc that would be an understandable error.
Okay... I guess that does make some sense– more than the way you put it at the time of voting, anyway.

All the same, this game is so darned confusing, it's not that surprising someone would get the roles mixed up.
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Old 05-11-2011, 10:20 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Nerwen
All the same, this game is so darned confusing, it's not that surprising someone would get the roles mixed up.
Hear, hear.

For the sake of posterity, I would not be opposed to seeing Nogrod, Lottie, or Shasta lynched toDay. the phantom is a bigger enigma to me than I probably am to some of you, but I'm okay with keeping him alive for one more Day. I want to see more of wilwa. Zil and Nerwen I'm inclined to trust, but if you turn out to be baddies I shall... probably be very mad at myself. I've already decided that Fea's not worth lynching - which I hope Shelob has not used/does not use to her advantage by trying to turn her.
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Old 05-11-2011, 10:41 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lhunardawen View Post
I've already decided that Fea's not worth lynching - which I hope Shelob has not used/does not use to her advantage by trying to turn her.
Hmmn. Not sure I like this "Fea is just too ZANY to be evil" meme that's been going around.
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Old 05-11-2011, 10:50 AM   #7
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Hmmn. Not sure I like this "Fea is just too ZANY to be evil" meme that's been going around.
I think it's more Fea tends to be this disinterested when she's an ordo, but I agree with the underlying thought.

I've read all of this page (since it was the only new page since the last time I posted) and the thing that jumped out at me the most was Wilwa mentioning that there's only one spiderling. I'm pretty sure there's two now (beginning 'ling plus one being stung) so I'm curious as to why Wilwa would try and spin the narration that way.

Also, I'm okay with lynching Phantom (but then I'm always okay with lynching Phantom).
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:26 PM   #8
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Perhaps the conversation in the narration meant that Shelob did not disclose the identity of the spiderlings to each other, which is why one thought it was alone?
That's how I took it, seeing that Shelob is apparently not allowed to tell the children who xyr siblings are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil View Post
Due to an unplanned trip out of town for which I will leave shortly (2/3 awesome, 1/3 my favorite English teacher died unexpectedly) I get to vote right now without any idea what I'm doing.

I know who I don't want to vote for (phantom, Nog, wilwa, Lhuna) but that's not for any legitimate reason (oh hi, gut instinct).

That being said, I'm going with

++Lottie

because I have no reason to trust her, but my vote is early enough that if y'all think I'm completely off base, you can treat it accordingly.
I'm trying to figure out if this means my suspicion of Lottie may be more merited, or less. Or neither.
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:37 PM   #9
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I'm trying to figure out if this means my suspicion of Lottie may be more merited, or less. Or neither.
How could that have any bearing on your suspicion of me? From what I could gather, she voted me because she'd seen nothing that indicated my innocence, not because she saw anything to indicate my guilt. The only way it would have any affect on your suspicion is it makes it easier for you to lynch me. Is this post just another reiteration of how you suspect me, without furthering your claims any? You don't put forward points, you simply speculate on whether there might be some. This is so incredibly deja-vuish...I can remember at least two games off the top of my head where this exact same thing has happened.
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:43 PM   #10
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Silmaril

Ok, I have to leave now.

This is terribly frustrating. I feel like I don't have enough information to make a good decision, so I'm just going to have to go with gut feelings here.

My vote:

++Nerwen

Good luck everyone, hopefully this goes well.
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:50 PM   #11
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Silmaril

Oh, and I'll be able to keep up with everything else that happens toDay on my breaks at work, my phone lets me come on the site but it won't let me post. I'm just letting you all know incase someone sees me do something on Facebook or something in the next few hours and wonders why I can use the internet but can't come on here. Good luck!

x'ed with Noggins
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:49 PM   #12
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It looks like the number of spiderlings depends on whether Sam healed the one stinged on N3 or not.

If we have only one spiderling we are on 7-2 now, with two we have 6-3.

I'm looking for the scenarios just to see what our situation is.

Now Frodo is going to die anyway and if we start to look at our situation toMorrow morning we need to deduce one goodie from the tally.

So 6-2 or 5-3

Looking at the worse scenario first, aka that we lynch an innocent, we will be on 5-2 or 4-3 toMorrow morning.

The latter one looks pretty bad as it requires only one innocent to vote for another innocent for the baddies to rally into victory.

So they is a marked difference. Sam knows the answer but I do think we others should keep the worse scenario in mind when making our votes toDay.


Which brings me to the fact that I have little or nothing to say about a too big a company, namely Fea, Lottie, Nerwen, Shasta, Zil... I'll try to do something about it.
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Old 05-11-2011, 12:54 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwa
This is terribly frustrating. I feel like I don't have enough information to make a good decision
Seconded (I was just looking the last line of my own post and the number of people I realised I had nothing much to say).

It is the new dynamics... where there isn't such teamplay involved one could try to read (like aiding mates in voting etc.) - and of course the small number of posts from nearly everyone. Let's change that.
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Old 05-11-2011, 01:04 PM   #14
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Eye

A bit busy right now, and feeling a bit disengaged and lethargic. I mean really, if it's Shasta or Nerwen we couldn't be expected to guess it given subnormal votes and participation. If it's Fea we couldn't be expected to guess given her volunteering of special gaming conditions and general random disinterest.

Meh, whatever. Just so long as Wilwa and I don't get lynched today I don't really care. Fight it out people. I would suggest a multi-lynch, but we can't do those.

I'm sort of in the mood for just attacking anyone that accuses me, as from my perspective it's as likely as anything to be some sort of evil plot.

Perhaps I won't reach 100 posts for once.
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Old 05-11-2011, 01:30 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the phantom View Post
I'm sort of in the mood for just attacking anyone that accuses me, as from my perspective it's as likely as anything to be some sort of evil plot.
Isn't that *always* how it looks from your perspective, phantom?
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Old 05-11-2011, 02:05 PM   #16
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Sorry. I had some frustrating problems with my mobile internet-card... Those are nice and handy but not too reliable.



Anyway. I decided to take first a look at yesterDay's voting as none had done that. And it is interesting. Here it is.

early vote Lhuna -> Lottie
- 2 hrs. Zil -> Lottie2
-.13 Lottie -> Zil
-.00 Fea -> Nog
-.00 Nog -> Lhuna
+.01 tp -> Zil2

Not voted Nerwen, Shasta, wilwa.

Now this tie looks like an interesting one. So did tp know the situation? Was it a deliberate tie and to what end? To save Lottie looks like the obvious reason (he has defended her all the game through I think), but saving an innocent or a bad Lottie?


If there were no baddies at stake yesterDay (near lynching), a tie would have been a bad idea to them as a no-lynch doesn't harvest our numbers.

If there was a baddie in danger, then they would have wished either to outvote the baddie or as the final reach create a tie.

Now of course there is an added factor, that one isn't quite sure if there will be others still voting (although on +.01 one should be quite sure).

So just asking you tp, why to go that far as to make it a no-lynch to save Lottie?


EDIT: X'd with pleasantly many...
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Old 05-11-2011, 09:09 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wilwarin538 View Post
So, in that list we has a Shelob, a spiderling, a Sam and a dying Frodo. I think the spiderling was created either from the beginning, or on Night 3 (since Night 2 there was no victim, and last Night it was Frodo), I don't know which, and that's annoying since knowing which it is could be helpful. There's a difference between looking for someone who's acted evil from the start, or someone who just started acting evil not too long ago. (unless we do know which it is and I've just missed something)
That's if you're right about the narration, Wilwa. I agree "the others" are just the other villagers, because otherwise there would have to be at least three spiderlings, which doesn't make sense. But does the fact that only one spiderling is mentioned mean it's definitely the only one? I'm not sure. I'd say it's more likely Sally is being deliberately confusing because... well, you know...

Anyway, it would depend what Day/Night it's likeliest Sam made a successful cure. Unless Boro was the one stung on Night 3, of course.

Note: refreshed and saw Fea's Lottie vote. I suppose I need to look at those two.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.
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