WW XC: Lord of the Rings 2: The Quest For More Money

[Nerwen]

Anyone around? No?

First things first: no, Boro is not a wolf. Just an innocent whom I suspect will be kicking himself toMorrow. I dreamed him Night Two, because his reveal looked fishy, especially the fact that actually he didn't know the way the Hunter-role worked. My Night One dream was Zil, on general principles, and last Night I dreamed Eruhen– not Eomer, because he was obviously evil, and because Eruhen was one of those I thought he might have been trying to save. Eruhen is, however, another innocent. This means I haven't managed to dream a wolf at all yet, which I am quite annoyed about, given my previous track record as a Seer. Oh well, it's not my fault you all had to look so suspicious.

EDIT:X'd with Wolfimer.

[Galadriel55]

Wow. Just, wow. I'm speechless.

Is this the game of the reveals? Three reveals by Day 3 - and at least one fake?

Seeromer has a case against Seerwen, and she against him. One of them is a wolf. I won't exclude the possibility that both faked. Eomer's claims are more bold, and easier to prove. Nerwen complicates things. She revealed three innocents. How do we know she's not a wolf calling random innocents innocent? And picking Zil is just too convenient. On the other hand, this might be simpy unlucky and nothing wolvish.

Trust Eomer means trust Bom and not trust Nerwen&Shasta. Trust Nerwen means trust Eruhen&Boro. While I can kinda trust (as much as one can trust in WW) the people they call innocent, I don't know about our Seers.

To know for sure, we could lynch one of them. But that would mean a 50-50 chance against the real Seer: too big of a risk IMO. Lynch Shasta, as he's the only "?known wolf?" that didn't reveal yet? If Eomer is not really the Seer, this would still backfire on him...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Trust Eomer means trust Bom and not trust Nerwen&Shasta. Trust Nerwen means trust Eruhen&Boro. While I can kinda trust (as much as one can trust in WW) the people they call innocent, I don't know about our Seers.

To know for sure, we could lynch one of them. But that would mean a 50-50 chance against the real Seer: too big of a risk IMO. Lynch Shasta, as he's the only "?known wolf?" that didn't reveal yet? If Eomer is not really the Seer, this would still backfire on him...

The trouble is, from my point of view this was obviously an attempt by Eomer of the Wolfirrim to salvage something from having stuck his neck out so far to get McCaber lynched– people making false Seer-reveals usually don't expect to survive long, they just want to do as much damage as possible to the village in the meanwhile, like flushing the real Seer, or getting an innocent killed, or just causing maximum confusion. So by lynching Shasta, we're basically giving this round to the wolves– Eomer would have known all along that once either of his "wolves" died, he was finished.

EDIT:X'd since G55 at #242.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The trouble is, from my point of view this was obviously an attempt by Eomer of the Wolfirrim to salvage something from having stuck his neck out so far to get McCaber lynched– people making false Seer-reveals usually don't expect to survive long, they just want to do as much damage as possible to the village in the meanwhile, like flushing the real Seer, or getting an innocent killed, or just causing maximum confusion. So by lynching Shasta, we're basically giving this round to the wolves– Eomer would have known all along that once either of his "wolves" died, he was finished.

The problem for us simple ordos is that you might be doing the very thing you're describing. We can't prove that you are the Seer. But we can see if Eomer is telling us the truth. To check that, I'd rather lynch a potential ordo than a potential Seer. That's why I think lynching Shasta is out best option for toDay.


I can see why Seeromer would choose to dream Nerwen&Shasta, but for that same reason Wolfomer could have chosen to "reveal" them. They are just too good at WW. If he's the Seer, he gets rid of two dangerous wolves for us. If he's a wolf - he gets at least one dangerous ordo out of the way.

Edit: xed with Eruhen

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What do you think about G55's idea then, Nerwen? Lynch Shasta today? No danger of the Seer being killed? Immediate answers to all our questions?

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

The problem for us simple ordos is that you might be doing the very thing you're describing. We can't prove that you are the Seer. But we can see if Eomer is telling us the truth. To check that, I'd rather lynch a potential ordo than a potential Seer. That's why I think lynching Shasta is out best option for toDay.

This is why I think we should lynch Shasta toDay as well. We can the prove if Eomer is the real Seer.

Edit: x-ed with G55 and Eomer

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by autume98

This is why I think we should lynch Shasta toDay as well. We can the prove if Eomer is the real Seer.

We also determine Nerwen's role with this. So...?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

The problem for us simple ordos is that you might be doing the very thing you're describing. We can't prove that you are the Seer. But we can see if Eomer is telling us the truth. To check that, I'd rather lynch a potential ordo than a potential Seer. That's why I think lynching Shasta is out best option for toDay.


I can see why Seeromer would choose to dream Nerwen&Shasta, but for that same reason Wolfomer could have chosen to "reveal" them. They are just too good at WW. If he's the Seer, he gets rid of two dangerous wolves for us. If he's a wolf - he gets at least one dangerous ordo out of the way.

I know I should just agree to lynch Shasta to save myself, but realistically I'll only get one more dream anyway, and I'm really not sure who to pick now. Besides, as I said, it would mean Wolfimer's entire gambit has succeeded. (I really doubt Shasta's likely to be a wolf– False Seer do sometimes sacrifice one of their packmates for credibility, but that doesn't seem to fit the set-up here.)

[Nerwen]

Eruhen– "innocent" covers both gifteds and ordos. It's often better not to get too specific.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Wow. Just, wow. I'm speechless.

Is this the game of the reveals? Three reveals by Day 3 - and at least one fake?

Seeromer has a case against Seerwen, and she against him. One of them is a wolf. I won't exclude the possibility that both faked. Eomer's claims are more bold, and easier to prove. Nerwen complicates things. She revealed three innocents. How do we know she's not a wolf calling random innocents innocent? And picking Zil is just too convenient. On the other hand, this might be simpy unlucky and nothing wolvish.

Trust Eomer means trust Bom and not trust Nerwen&Shasta. Trust Nerwen means trust Eruhen&Boro. While I can kinda trust (as much as one can trust in WW) the people they call innocent, I don't know about our Seers.

To know for sure, we could lynch one of them. But that would mean a 50-50 chance against the real Seer: too big of a risk IMO. Lynch Shasta, as he's the only "?known wolf?" that didn't reveal yet? If Eomer is not really the Seer, this would still backfire on him...

I'm in agreement here. A lot has been going on. I like the idea of lynching Shasta toDay. This way we will know who the real Seer is. At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by autume98

At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

I'm not leaning anywhere. I feel like they are playing tug-of-war with me instead of the rope.

Why me? Why did I even join this game? I'm just an ignorant hobbit, and my brain is starting to steam!

[Eruhen]

Question for Lottie about the rules:

Does the Hunter show as gifted or ordo for the Seer? edit: I read through the Rules thread, and it seems a little vague.

kthxbai

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Eruhen

Boro, Bom, Shasta, you around? Your heads are on the line here, too, and it'd be nice to hear from you.

What did I miss...how's my head on the line here? Granted, I wouldn't be the most terrible choice, if you want my head today, Shasta will be coming with me. Although, I'd prefer just to take the direct route of lynching Shasta.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'm in agreement here. A lot has been going on. I like the idea of lynching Shasta toDay. This way we will know who the real Seer is. At this time I'm leaning towards Eomer as Seer and Nerwen as wolf.

Yes, especially since he's departed on to a grand trip overseas. Although this would mean another day of a Nerwen/Eomer seer battle most likely. Unless Nerwen would like to get noble as I can always hunt her during the night. I'll pick you up at 9, shall we call it a date?

I may be kicking myself as Nerwen says, because it's not like I've been terribly and horrible wrong about seer reveals before. But having been a seer before (seems like Eomer's taken from my book ), Eomer's rationale makes sense and it looks like the wolves have spent the night concocting a story to sow doubt.

I have to admit, it's actually a pretty convincing story by Nerwen, not at all what I was expecting, but a fraudulant story nonetheless.

To G55, don't sweat it, at this point one of them is obviously lying. All you can do is choose who's more believable, if you're wrong, you're wrong. No big deal. Kick yourself a few times and move on, my history is full of being horribly wrong and erratic (ergo look at my Day 1, and that's not even the worst of it.) There will always be the next day to correct whatever we manage to screw up.

Actually, after how Day 1 started, I'm impressed how well we've performed, when it's all said and done. Usually we lynch the Seer on Day 1 more than any other role it seems. And, well it's Day 3 and all the gifteds are still alive.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

To G55, don't sweat it, at this point one of them is obviously lying.

Or both, in which case we're screwed either way.

All you can do is choose who's more believable, if you're wrong, you're wrong. No big deal. Kick yourself a few times and move on, my history is full of being horribly wrong and erratic (ergo look at my Day 1, and that's not even the worst of it.)

Good advice. But, like I've said before and Eonwe quite recently, I prefer a debatable ordowolf to a debatable seerwolf.

There will always be the next day to correct whatever we manage to screw up.

We have 11 people. Three are wolves. Three innocents to equal that number. That leaves us with 5 innocents to die before we lose. It means - toDay, toNight, toMorrow, toMorrowNight, and the Day after. It would be great if there will be another Ranger save, but it cannot be relied on. So technically we have 3 Days to get a wolf. And we can get one - or two - in 2 Days.

If we take the worse case scenario, where we lynch innocent Shasta and there is a kill at Night, then we are left with 6 innocents and 3 wolves. Lynch Eomerwolf and a kill at Night again. That makes it 5 innocents and 2 wolves, which means 3 innocents (one of which is a Night kill) to lose before we lose, or two Days to get another wolf.

Pretty risky. But is there a better way? Certainly, if Eomer is the Seer, life becomes much easier, as we can get two wolves in two consecutive Days, and we'll have some room to breathe. But false hope often proves more fatal than false suspicion...

Edit: xed with Boro, Nerwen, and Bom

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eruhen

Question for Lottie about the rules:

Does the Hunter show as gifted or ordo for the Seer?

If you're asking in order to question Nerwen's reveal, she called Boro "innocent", without describing a specific role.

[Eruhen]

Re: G55:

I know that Nerwen called Boro an 'innocent'. However, since he's already self-revealed as the Hunter, if she could see his Gift, why bother hiding it?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Eruhen

Re: G55:

I know that Nerwen called Boro an 'innocent'. However, since he's already self-revealed as the Hunter, if she could see his Gift, why bother hiding it?

Maybe just a slip. Dunno. Nerwen knows better.