WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Also, I'm not overly fond of voting to avoid a bandwaggon - bandwaggons are dangerous, true, but if you suspect someone, you want them bandwaggoned since that's pretty much the only way to get them lynched.

If you *strongly* suspect someone, yes. As it was, I didn't, and that sudden leap on him rather alarmed me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

My point remains, though: why TEW instead of someone else? There's quite a number of people in this village who would have been higher-up on *my* "to kill" list, just on principle. (I don't want to knock TEW, by the way– but you know what I mean.)

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course. If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

It could be. That bit I quoted above has something of that glimpse-of-the-Nightly-discussion feel.

That's what I thought.

EDIT: x-ed with three little psychopatic frogs.

[Inziladun]

First off, sorry about that, Pitch. He was the only one I really had anything on, even though, as I said, I had some doubts about his lupinity. The two votes for him coming so hot on the heels of mine was rather freaky.

Not much time for much of toDay, sadly. I'll get on when I can, though.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It may have been a framing attempt, or they may have taken his caution and jumpiness as a sign he was *a* gifted, and not bothered about which. (I notice he used the sword icon in his first post, which could have been taken as either a Hunter or Ranger clue.)

I think this more likely than a desire for a trailless kill, as there would seem to have been more choices who left a lot less to be analyzed than TEW.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course.

Exactly.

If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

Well you, for a start. And then there's Boro. And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

....I'm flattered.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Like who? Killing newbies is unsporty. That is at least minus two in any case. Also, in any case, substract three Wolves who are not going to kill each other, of course. If the newbies are both innocent, the number of people you can kill is already thinning very mightily with this. There may be reasons for some people to rather keep them around: for instance, if Zil is innocent, he could be made a suspect, maybe it isn't good to kill him. Similarly maybe with me? And so on and so on. I would however mightily like to hear who would be high on *your* "to kill" list, since you have already mentioned that.

That is rhetorical? Or are you totally serious about Nerwen's kill list?

TEW wouldn't make sense as a trailless kill. Even though he didn't give much a way, the two first time players could have been trailless, Greenie, Kath, sally too. So, I think Nerwen's point is if TEW was made as a trailless the fact that it was TEW says something. And not one of the others.

Either the wolf pack is a group that likes to lay low, but then again why not kill you, or Nerwen or me? That would probably leave a trail, but it's rather easy to manipulate the trail once the person's killed.

Or TEW said/did something that tipped off he was a possible gifted, thus making him a more attractive target than the other no-trail kills. I guess what I'm saying is why can't it be both? TEW really doesn't leave a trail and was killed to try to set up you a/o Inzil. But the fact is, as little as the trail was, TEW left one, and whether he turned out gifted or not, there's got to be a reason TEW was a better no-trail target than others.

I guess what I'm trying to get to is, a no-trail kill/frame attempt is not going to be the only reason, because if they aren't concentrating on killing gifteds, then they're very bold. I'm going to look at it as TEW was killed because he was thought a gifted, and the trailless business is just an indirect outcome.

I need to go ice my face now, after Kit's slap.

[satansaloser2005]

In a game this small, the wolves can afford to be bold. They only need three Days to do this, and then it'll be end game. Still, you're right. So, my sweet prince, why was EW killed rather than me or Kit or someone else? Theorize! Hypothesize! Lobotomize! (Well, maybe not the last one.)

Cupcake demands an explanation for this Night kill.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In a game this small, the wolves can afford to be bold. They only need three Days to do this, and then it'll be end game. Still, you're right. So, my sweet prince, why was EW killed rather than me or Kit or someone else? Theorize! Hypothesize! Lobotomize! (Well, maybe not the last one.)

Cupcake demands an explanation for this Night kill.

"?"

And I would have more of a clue than you? I'm going on the easiest assumption, something TEW said set him above the other no-trail options. Either, he was believe gifted (which would point to Legate a/o Inzil) or the other people I would put into TEW's group based on Day 1, (Greenie, Kath, sally, Laeko, and Azura) contain a few wolves. I have no special ability to know if it's the right assumption, but it's the one that makes the most sense to me. Or at least starts giving me ideas on certain people, which I assure you, is coming.

[satansaloser2005]

Well....

1. You're actually around.
2. I trust your judgement.
3. You said that XYZ wasn't a very valid explanation, but hadn't given any other options.
4. I'm bored.

Also, how do I fit into the same category as the two slabs of freshly-cut meat? Neither of them even voted. A no-trace kill by definition leaves no trace. Elf, Kath, and I left a trace, and thus are not in the same MLT as the newbies. Just sayin'.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well you, for a start. And then there's Boro. And Sally, Greenie, Kit, Kath... all people I'd have chosen to knock off first.

Fair enough, maybe it would've been better if you'd have also said why, but whatever, let's leave it. It was just for the sake of seeing what you answer, one answer is enough.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That is rhetorical? Or are you totally serious about Nerwen's kill list?

I don't know what you imagine under "totally serious", but yes, it was a serious question: I wanted an answer. Why not? Since Nerwen already mentioned it, I thought it was a good idea to ask her. First, it would have provided better background for her theory (I wanted to know who did she mean might be, in her opinion, on the same level with TEW and who not), second, obviously, because if she was a Wolf, she could have made some slip, or answered truthfully or untruthfully but something could be perhaps glimpsed from that... well, you never know.

TEW wouldn't make sense as a trailless kill. Even though he didn't give much a way, the two first time players could have been trailless, Greenie, Kath, sally too. So, I think Nerwen's point is if TEW was made as a trailless the fact that it was TEW says something. And not one of the others.

Either the wolf pack is a group that likes to lay low, but then again why not kill you, or Nerwen or me? That would probably leave a trail, but it's rather easy to manipulate the trail once the person's killed.

I understand what you mean if you mean what Nerwen says, I get it now. But as to what you just said here about manipulating the trail: Not really and not necessarily always. You see dead TEW, how can we know the point was not to try to confuse us with little or no trail, and leaving us to ponder e.g. those whom TEW was talking about? (Or was not talking about? Or...)

You are acting rather, hmm, simple-mindedly, I would say, as if you were not a seasoned player who should know how WW Night-talks often go: very often, the WWs don't really have much of a good target (unless they think that XY is "definitely" a Gifted and stuff like that), especially on early Nights, so it ends up like "Hey Joe, we are supposed to send the kill in an hour, so out of those remaining people we have, whom do we choose?" "I think let's kill TEW, he has a fair enough chance of being a Gifted and at the same time if it's not, it would be a no trace kill in any case, and on top of that it can point to whomever..." but at the same time, they almost said "let's lynch Juan Domingo Perez", since he was almost as good target as TEW. What I mean is: It is not usually that clear even for the WWs, like: "I think TEW is the Seer, the chance of him being one is 89%, whereas the next person in a row is, in my opinion, only 40% likely to be one!"

So:

Or TEW said/did something that tipped off he was a possible gifted, thus making him a more attractive target than the other no-trail kills. I guess what I'm saying is why can't it be both? TEW really doesn't leave a trail and was killed to try to set up you a/o Inzil. But the fact is, as little as the trail was, TEW left one, and whether he turned out gifted or not, there's got to be a reason TEW was a better no-trail target than others.

Yes, that is a part of it, but only one part. If I were to summarize what I think the kill was for, I would say the main point was no-trace. "Let us lay low. There are few players. If we stay low for a couple of days, we can win without any losses."

And what does it help us anyway, to know whether he was killed because the WWs thought him possibly more Gifted than, for example, me or Juan Domingo Perez over there?

I am not saying the WWs are not looking for Gifteds, I am sure they are, but they probably don't know anything very specific about them (otherwise, they'd already be dead).

And anyway, let me say once again, in my opinion, at this point this debate does not have much of a sense for the village. The knowledge (or, in fact, theory) that the WWs thought TEW 1% more Gifted than the rest of us does not really help the village in anything. If there was somebody shouting "I'm the Seer, I'm the Seer" all day and then next night the WWs won't attack him, now that would have been suspicious. But if we have only some vague notions, it is not of any help.

Sorry for probably writing it in a rather confusing way. But I think I have repeated myself several times, so the few main points should be apparent from there. Anyway, I think we should move on from "why was TEW killed", since I think we have revealed as much as we could, to "whom are we going to lynch".

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Sally

[Boromir88]

Day 1

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I am detecting a slight, slight wolvish vibe in the final paragraph of Legate's first post. I think any advantage of having a smaller field is outweighed by the sheer numerical fact that the smaller the village is, the closer the wolves are to winning.

I didn't understand TEW's point here, or at least I could not sense any of the slight wolvish vibes from Legate's first post. Legate bantered about the guide then tried prompting a question about wolf strategy in a low-number village. It looked rather standard Legate, which I imagine for werewolving he at least brings a brief case as he's always ready to get to business.

Originally Posted by Legate, #42

So, I at least know whom I am not going to vote. Also, upholding the ancient tradition, I won't vote for either of the newbies.

This was his list post where he didn't seem to have any strong suspects at the time. But it looks good in staying consistent with his trying to "lynch wisely." I'm sure people disagree with the strategy, but part of the battle on getting through Day 1 is figuring out who not to lynch. Eventually, got to get wolves, but the longer the gifteds can keep hidden, the better. Can't win or lose on Day 1, but it can be crippling if the seer is ousted or lynched.

In sum, figuring out who you don't want to lynch is good enough for Day 1, but eventually got to start getting serious suspects to send werewolves to the gibbets.

Originally Posted by Legate, #49

But I think I could vote Elf-warrior in the end - maybe also it could be used as a "warning vote", if nothing else, to underline my point: if you say that it is easier to make comments about people who haven't said much, yes, maybe, but that actually sounds like ignoring them (if you don't post anything about them, at least a sentence, or a yes/no note!). It is not such a big deal to make comments about people who have said a lot, it is more a problem to read their posts, isn't it? And I certainly hope you are trying to at least read everyone's posts, at least briefly.

Therefore,

++Elf-warrior

I agree with Inzil yesterday, that if this was a "warning" to Elf-warrior, a vote is a pretty strong one. Even with it being Day 1. And honestly, Legate, I have no clue what you were warning TEW about. Was it, generally, just, if you have the time, shape up? Or care to explain what you meant again?

Day 2

Don't agree with him that TEW was a no-trace kill, but his activity today and starting to stir around suspicions looks innocent enough.

I had thought his first post today looked like an attempt to steer us to believe TEW was killed as a no-trace, and possibly to frame him. Although, he only mentions it could frame Inzil, and not himself. I certainly can't see a wolf-Legate being bothered by "slight slight wolvish feelings" from TEW.

So, if I go with the wolves thought TEW was the seer, then Legate being a wolf doesn't really make sense. Why challenge him with a vote and risk the attention, or chance the Ranger catches on too? But, if the wolves thought TEW was the Ranger or Hunter, I wouldn't put it past Legate being a wolf trying to get some sign out of TEW. Although, for that to make sense, then TEW would have to of given Rangery or Huntery vibes.

Edit: crossed with sally.

Also, how do I fit into the same category as the two slabs of freshly-cut meat? Neither of them even voted. A no-trace kill by definition leaves no trace. Elf, Kath, and I left a trace, and thus are not in the same MLT as the newbies. Just sayin'.

Fairy nuff. I meant, like Greenie, Kath, and TEW your posting doesn't give much away. Though you are right, you would leave a trace, as TEW did. The trace though would be hard to follow correctly, hence similar to TEW, even if technically you're right.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In sum, figuring out who you don't want to lynch is good enough for Day 1, but eventually got to start getting serious suspects to send werewolves to the gibbets.

That wasn't my program, it was the summary of the post: looking at the list I just wrote and evaluating what I have learned. Looking at it, I realised I don't have any people screaming guilty at that point, but at least I knew who I did not want to vote, and then went on from there in my future thoughts up to the final decision several posts later.

I agree with Inzil yesterday, that if this was a "warning" to Elf-warrior, a vote is a pretty strong one. Even with it being Day 1. And honestly, Legate, I have no clue what you were warning TEW about. Was it, generally, just, if you have the time, shape up? Or care to explain what you meant again?

The warning was a "bonus". It was not the sole reason, of course, that would be silly - if you read what I was saying, you will see it - in fact, it was not a reason at all. What I said was: TEW is possibly the person about whom there is something I find unsettling, and that is the fact that he posts about random people and completely omits the "big" events. I don't have anything even as "good" about the others, so I am going to vote him. Even in case it does not lynch him, may it at least serve as a warning. Let this vote be a warning to you, TEW! Post something sensible, or I shall lynch you on basis of this! Something like that. It is the equivalent of the typical "lynch the quiet ones" thing. If you are innocent, you should post and not omit saying your opinions on important stuff. You are harming the village if you don't. If you are not innocent, then you fully deserved the vote.