Meeting at the Town Cobbler (WW XCV game thread)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I know it's not in the intended spirit of this game, but I would advise against too much analysis etc. during the night phase. It really only helps the wolves to sort out their own kill if they know who the inn thinks is innocent and who not. Usually they have some guesswork to do regarding the village's upcoming reaction to the lynch, which complicates their kill decision.

I agree with this. The committee gets to discuss "real-time" what's said. I wouldn't say "no talking" either, just to watch what you say.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I agree with this. The committee gets to discuss "real-time" what's said. I wouldn't say "no talking" either, just to watch what you say.

Dangit, Inzil. Every time I try to get ahead in the post count apparently you have something to say. If you hadn't found a wolf, I might be getting a bit upset right now.

/good-natured ribbing

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Dangit, Inzil. Every time I try to get ahead in the post count apparently you have something to say. If you hadn't found a wolf, I might be getting a bit upset right now.

/good-natured ribbing

Something.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I agree with this. The committee gets to discuss "real-time" what's said. I wouldn't say "no talking" either, just to watch what you say.

Yep.

I just meant the long-y analysis posts or any points one wouldn't expect anybody to come up with by themselves.

They will be able to see the general flow of opinions, there's nothing that can be done about that. Considering how unpredictable the reaction to even fairly clear gifted reveals can sometimes be, that's a significant advantage.

If I were into conspiracy and odd tactics, I'd say let's all post stuff we don't really mean during the night.

I'm suspecting Inzil quite a bit right now. His vote looks incredibly fishy to me.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm suspecting Inzil quite a bit right now. His vote looks incredibly fishy to me.

I think you'll have my vote next Hour as well. It's best to be sure.

A rather slow start to the game, but I foresee interesting times ahead. I'd expect nothing less from a Sally-moddess.

[A Little Green]

Bleh. So sorry for yesterDay! I don't think I've ever before remembered a game is on (and even posted, for heaven's sake!) and then forgotten it again, but apparently that is possible. *rolleyes* As for me not trusting the Seer to realize the PMs could be used to contact known innocents - hmm, I guess I'm just not that good with twists, but I certainly didn't think of that before Wilwa pointed it out. (Though I confess I didn't speculate a whole lot about the rule twists in general, it might have occurred to me had I stopped to think.) The deal is, I can be decent at spotting wolves when innocent, or playing innocent when a wolf, but I'm lousy with twists and plots and bluffs. My brain doesn't work that way, for which reason I often miss stuff others find obvious.

Originally Posted by Nog

Well, my suspicion on Greenie rests on the "committee members" in fact not knowing each other - as that was how I somehow had read that piece in the rules earlier. In that case she might have had a motive to signal to her partner (and that would have been pretty witty way of doing it), but if they knew each other already, then that of course would have been futile and risky - something I don't think Greenie would have done.

What I find interesting, Nog, is that you suspected me already before you came up with a reason for it, yet now you act as if that reason (which, by the way, doesn't really work) was why you had started suspecting me in the first place.

Also, Inzil and Mac bring up a good point about not talking carelessly during the Night phases. Makes me a bit paranoid, actually!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What I find interesting, Nog, is that you suspected me already before you came up with a reason for it, yet now you act as if that reason (which, by the way, doesn't really work) was why you had started suspecting me in the first place.

Well, now you clearly haven't read the thread or then I have expressed myself unclearly. The post you quote above is one after it was "revealed" (= someone asked about it & I checked the rules and found them ambiguos indeed) we actually don't know whether the wolves knew each other from the beginning of the game or not. As I had thought things from the POV of them not knowing each others identities I thought you looked pretty fishy indeed, but with the possibility that the wolves actually knew each other already that theory would go down the drain. And I posted to just make that point: that whether I suspect you or not from now on, depends a lot on the rules being this or that way.

There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea.

So could you SS tell us what the rule was?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Also, Inzil and Mac bring up a good point about not talking carelessly during the Night phases.

It just leaves us with a duty to define "careless talk".

No revelations to be sure during nightHours as the wolves can discuss tactics to counter them. I'm tempeted to add Mac's idea about not making any thorough analysis or coming forth with anything like "game-changer" ideas.

Which is kind of sad as we for once have a chance to talk 24/7 - and then it's better not to. But I think no can do.

Well, it will be easy to me thisHour as I'm now going to bury my head into a pile of essays for the rest of the day.

[Nogrod]

While making myself a full kettle of coffee I just remembered one more thing we'd need the info about the wolves' initial knowledge or the lack of it.

Now if the wolves didn't know each other the actual votes cast yesterHour tell us more or less nothing (but the "no lynch thisHour" ideas as well as tries to bring on a tie might still mean something), but if they did, that would more or less declare Zil and Mac innocent as voting your mate at that kind of a situation would be reckless indeed (unless Mac tried to make a really bold tie declaring his wish to make a tie and vote for a mate to produce it - uhh, that would be daring and beautiful - but perhaps not that probable).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea.

Hmm. That's a good question. All I see is the following from the opening post in this thread:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The game will open with a Day phase, starting at 5pm CDT (in 23 hours). The committee (wolves) will not be able to converse before this phase.

The fact that they were told not to talk with one another before Day 1 begins would suggest they were aware of their mates' identities. Maybe the moddess will clarify (or perhaps leave it unknown to torment us ).

[A Little Green]

Nog, my issue with your suspicion of me is that you first expressed suspicion over my "dubious" behaviour and only after that came up with a reason why exactly it makes me look evil.

The thing about Greenie I dislike / suspect is that she goes on explaining why a wolf wouldn't have done what wilwa did (dare to talk about how a seer might try to play) and that that is the reason she feels good about her.

Really, a wolf would exactly "dare" to do that. A wolf would love to point that out if none else had done it as the seer surely has thought of that. And I remember Greenie most often being on the camp which says "you elitists don't you think the gifteds can't think themselves!" when someone dares to suggest something to the gifteds - but now she thinks the seer might not have thought of the obvious?

So that I find a bit dubious.

Okay. It bothered me, why would Greenie behave that dubiously and I checked the rules for something that I thought might apply...

So she was trying to signal a possible fellow-wolf? I mean if they don't know each others identities, then they should try to do something to not let a fellow-lynch to happen.

See what I mean? You first point out a suspicious bit of behaviour and only later think of a reason why it's suspicious. Doesn't work that way, mate. Just saying.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Meh. It'd be doing me a big favor to highlight them, but I'm not going to count non-highlighted votes as non-votes, because then we could get into loads of trouble.

Sorry about that. I'll highlight from now on.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wouldn't you like to know?

Well, I called it.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Maybe the moddess will clarify (or perhaps leave it unknown to torment us ).

[satansaloser2005]

A cell phone vibrates against a wooden table. Its owner picks it up, illuminating the screen and reading the display.



1 New Message

It is our opinion that McCaber should not stay until morning. While he is chattery, he has said little to advance our discussions thus far. Also, he's eaten all the mints.

Regards



Mere moments later, McCaber receives a call via the Cobbler phone, which informs him that he is needed back home to attend to some work business. He leaves his drink on the bar, gathers his things, and walks out.

When he returns home, he finds a check for his expenses and a small cake.





In the Cobbler:
Rikae
Lottie
Shasta
Dun
Greenie
Agan
Nog
Mac
Steve


Checked out:
Boro (went to deal with his puppy after riding out the storm)
Wilwa (committee member, realized she left the oven on)
McCaber (guest, expelled for hogging the cashews)

[Inziladun]

McCaber, eh? Standard question, "Why him?" I'll look back at what he said, but first this.

Nog, the question of whether the committee knew one another before apparently will remain a mystery, at least for now.

As I said here, however, I think not voting would have been the obvious option for baddies in the dark.
I did suggest, and considered it. If I were one of the committee, I could have easily followed through on it with consistency.

[Nogrod]

Well then. Forget my questions on McCaber... why him beats me right now, although his last min ute action was odd, and I need to go to sleep like now.

I was having an intention to make a comment about Mac as well but the DL came too early for me to have time to include it there. But okay, swiftly now.

So did you really think a tie would have been a good idea Mac? If you are a wolf and knew wilwa was as well it would have been really bold & beautiful; "listen to me, I will make the tie right now and none of you shalll vote after me" - well, that actually sounds more like the phantom...

Okay. More later - and hopefully I'm not the only one to post on this thread thisHour.

[Inziladun]

What can we get from McCaber? These are the only posts that might stand out.

Here he refutes Greenie, who liked Wilwa's comments about the Seer getting the most benefit from private communications. He said that didn't mean Wilwa was evil, but also wasn't necessarily innocent because of that.

Maybe him being concerned about the Seer was a red flag? That's pretty shaky.

Here he says he gets "honest vibes" from me, but singles out Greenie as the one he liked least. He was non-committal about everyone else.

He failed to vote, and after DL said he thought Mac and I were probably innocent because of our votes.

And that's pretty much it. I wouldn't think his being targeted would point to Greenie on its own, since he wasn't very forceful about it, and didn't actially vote. That said, Greenie's support of Wilwa does raise an eyebrow for me.

[satansaloser2005]

Shasta sneaks off to his room. The weather is making him uneasy.


(The weather is bad in his area, so he may be here very little or not at all.)

[Macalaure]

My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent. He did also say that he liked Greenie least among the one-posters.

Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly.

I do like Nog's point against me. It's wrong, but I still like it. If I was a wolf and Wilwa innocent, that's definitely something I could see myself doing. However, I would have been more strongly about telling people to make the tie possible (while hoping and being optimistic that it would fail). Doing wolf-on-wolf in such a situation is an entirely needless risk, though.

And, yes, I did think a tie would have been a good idea. There was little participation and the village had virtually no clue what it was doing. Our chances were little above the random 27%.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent.

Yes, but if it was only a no-trace they were after, some better targets might come to mind. Lottie, Shasta, and Rikae, for some.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly.

Nog's vote, the first of Hour 1, does look better than if it had come later.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

And, yes, I did think a tie would have been a good idea. There was little participation and the village had virtually no clue what it was doing. Our chances were little above the random 27%.

I was antsy about voting for anyone Hour 1, but in the end I felt no one leaving would play to the baddies more. I still think that would have been much better for committee members who didn't know one another. That might look a bit bad for Eönwë, putting up Lottie at the last minute and making, as far as he knew, a three-way tie.