Meeting at the Town Cobbler (WW XCV game thread)

[A Little Green]

Bleh. So sorry for yesterDay! I don't think I've ever before remembered a game is on (and even posted, for heaven's sake!) and then forgotten it again, but apparently that is possible. *rolleyes* As for me not trusting the Seer to realize the PMs could be used to contact known innocents - hmm, I guess I'm just not that good with twists, but I certainly didn't think of that before Wilwa pointed it out. (Though I confess I didn't speculate a whole lot about the rule twists in general, it might have occurred to me had I stopped to think.) The deal is, I can be decent at spotting wolves when innocent, or playing innocent when a wolf, but I'm lousy with twists and plots and bluffs. My brain doesn't work that way, for which reason I often miss stuff others find obvious.

Originally Posted by Nog

Well, my suspicion on Greenie rests on the "committee members" in fact not knowing each other - as that was how I somehow had read that piece in the rules earlier. In that case she might have had a motive to signal to her partner (and that would have been pretty witty way of doing it), but if they knew each other already, then that of course would have been futile and risky - something I don't think Greenie would have done.

What I find interesting, Nog, is that you suspected me already before you came up with a reason for it, yet now you act as if that reason (which, by the way, doesn't really work) was why you had started suspecting me in the first place.

Also, Inzil and Mac bring up a good point about not talking carelessly during the Night phases. Makes me a bit paranoid, actually!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What I find interesting, Nog, is that you suspected me already before you came up with a reason for it, yet now you act as if that reason (which, by the way, doesn't really work) was why you had started suspecting me in the first place.

Well, now you clearly haven't read the thread or then I have expressed myself unclearly. The post you quote above is one after it was "revealed" (= someone asked about it & I checked the rules and found them ambiguos indeed) we actually don't know whether the wolves knew each other from the beginning of the game or not. As I had thought things from the POV of them not knowing each others identities I thought you looked pretty fishy indeed, but with the possibility that the wolves actually knew each other already that theory would go down the drain. And I posted to just make that point: that whether I suspect you or not from now on, depends a lot on the rules being this or that way.

There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea.

So could you SS tell us what the rule was?

Originally Posted by Greenie

Also, Inzil and Mac bring up a good point about not talking carelessly during the Night phases.

It just leaves us with a duty to define "careless talk".

No revelations to be sure during nightHours as the wolves can discuss tactics to counter them. I'm tempeted to add Mac's idea about not making any thorough analysis or coming forth with anything like "game-changer" ideas.

Which is kind of sad as we for once have a chance to talk 24/7 - and then it's better not to. But I think no can do.

Well, it will be easy to me thisHour as I'm now going to bury my head into a pile of essays for the rest of the day.

[Nogrod]

While making myself a full kettle of coffee I just remembered one more thing we'd need the info about the wolves' initial knowledge or the lack of it.

Now if the wolves didn't know each other the actual votes cast yesterHour tell us more or less nothing (but the "no lynch thisHour" ideas as well as tries to bring on a tie might still mean something), but if they did, that would more or less declare Zil and Mac innocent as voting your mate at that kind of a situation would be reckless indeed (unless Mac tried to make a really bold tie declaring his wish to make a tie and vote for a mate to produce it - uhh, that would be daring and beautiful - but perhaps not that probable).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea.

Hmm. That's a good question. All I see is the following from the opening post in this thread:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The game will open with a Day phase, starting at 5pm CDT (in 23 hours). The committee (wolves) will not be able to converse before this phase.

The fact that they were told not to talk with one another before Day 1 begins would suggest they were aware of their mates' identities. Maybe the moddess will clarify (or perhaps leave it unknown to torment us ).

[A Little Green]

Nog, my issue with your suspicion of me is that you first expressed suspicion over my "dubious" behaviour and only after that came up with a reason why exactly it makes me look evil.

The thing about Greenie I dislike / suspect is that she goes on explaining why a wolf wouldn't have done what wilwa did (dare to talk about how a seer might try to play) and that that is the reason she feels good about her.

Really, a wolf would exactly "dare" to do that. A wolf would love to point that out if none else had done it as the seer surely has thought of that. And I remember Greenie most often being on the camp which says "you elitists don't you think the gifteds can't think themselves!" when someone dares to suggest something to the gifteds - but now she thinks the seer might not have thought of the obvious?

So that I find a bit dubious.

Okay. It bothered me, why would Greenie behave that dubiously and I checked the rules for something that I thought might apply...

So she was trying to signal a possible fellow-wolf? I mean if they don't know each others identities, then they should try to do something to not let a fellow-lynch to happen.

See what I mean? You first point out a suspicious bit of behaviour and only later think of a reason why it's suspicious. Doesn't work that way, mate. Just saying.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, you explained the first one already. But how strict will you be with the highlighting thing? I mean technically I think we lynched no one if non-highlighted votes do not count?

Meh. It'd be doing me a big favor to highlight them, but I'm not going to count non-highlighted votes as non-votes, because then we could get into loads of trouble.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is actually another issue we should think about if we knew the actual state of the affairs. I mean if the wolves didn't know each other I would say that it would have served the wolves' interests if we didn't lynch anyone on the first Hour. So looking at the developement of that "no lynch thisHour" idea and peoples reactions to it might be a good idea.

So could you SS tell us what the rule was?

Wouldn't you like to know?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

See what I mean? You first point out a suspicious bit of behaviour and only later think of a reason why it's suspicious.

I see and I don't...

First I only noted that you said a wilwawolf wouldn't have pointed out the scenario with the seer - which is both odd and plainly false - and that it leads you to trust her (well, that she looks good because of that). Now that was looking dubious as itself. But then I also remembered that you tend to be one of those who scorns others for discussing the gifteds and what they should do and now you seemed like perfectly happy with the speculation by wilwa. That made it more suspicious.

But to be honest that was not much and - like I said - it bothered me as to why you acted like that.

And it was only later I was able to "connect the dots" when I realised there might be a connection between the wolves not knowing each other and them needing to signal each other - and that your behaviour does fit in.


So yes I suspected you earlier with less and later with more reasons.

And then - in the quote you made originally - said that a lot of my suspicions will depend on what the rules actually were.


Talking of which...

Originally Posted by Sally

Wouldn't you like to know?

The wolves lost one of their number already on the first hour - so should I interpret your reluctance to tell it as not willing to give up that information because it might hurt them even more? Or are you just teasing us... which knowing you would be quite believable as well.

Originally Posted by Zil

Actually, in the event that the committee did not know one another until the end of the first Hour, not voting would have been the smart way for them to go. That would explain why Wilwa said she was on board with no one dying.

Well, that's what I've been trying to say - and why learning the way it was would help us.

Although I am interested more in the reactions of the still living rather than explaining why wilwawolf said what she said (which kind of looks self-evident from that POV).

It is not any straightforward thing to be sure, I was myself almost bending to the side of thinking let's not lynch anyone - before I realised that it was possible the wolves might love it, and I wasn't willing to give them a free pass in that case.

But all that aka. what we can say on these issues depends on whether Sally is willing to tell us or not.


Okay. I'm back to read yet one smallish pile of papers for today and hopefully able to stick around for a short while before going to sleep. I hope to see some discussion when I come back.

[Nogrod]

Inzil is actually the person to suggest it already 4 hours before the DL by saying: “Then again, we could vote no one and not have a death toDay”. Wilwa agrees on that.

After that Inzil brings the idea forth again in #33 (not clearly committing to any solution though). I entertain the idea in #35. Rikae slightly disagrees with it in #36. Eönwë goes to and fro with it and ends up more like saying yes than no in #37.

With Eönwë’s comments it’s about half an hour to the DL.

Originally Posted by Inzil #39

Not voting squanders our chance of getting a committee member, so it isn't my desire. However, we certainly have even less this Day 1 to consider than usual.

Now this bothers me somewhat. “So it isn’t my desire”? Why on earth to say something like that? And he actually continues in the same post quoting my voiced suspicion on Greenie and admittal that my reasoning is pretty thin with this:

I don't know. That's the problem. I might could go for one of the submarines out of desperation.

So let’s not lynch anyone or let’s lynch someone who has not been around? It tends to be quite rare the wolves do not play (it is possible but rare) so how come this suggestion at this moment? It is a village of only ten…

Mac continues by saying that the lynch will be virtually random (in #40). In #43 he speculates how hard it would be to arrange a tie.

I go for a try to get a lynch done in #44 (vote Greenie, 6 minutes to the DL).

Rikae says (in #51): "This bugs me. I mean, I can see wanting to prolong a game that may be short, but, as I see it, skipping toDay's lynch is actually to the baddies' advantage".

Mac says “Let’s tie it” (votes wilwa, 2 minutes before the DL).

Eönwë says he will abstain from voting at .00 hours (in #54).

Inzil says “all right” (votes wilwa, at .00 hour), because he trusts Mac to be more innocent than me in #55.

Eönwë wants to tie as well (votes Lottie, at .00) in #56.!!!

Rikae says she is not on board with the non-lynching / tie at .01, her top suspects are voted for as well (in #58). She realises she had missed the DL already (in #59).

~*~

Votes:
Nog -> Greenie
Mac -> Wilwa
Inzil -> Wilwa 2
Eönwë -> Lottie

No one else voted.


~*~


So what do we learn?

I still think a lot depends on the fact whether the wolves knew each others' identities or not. But as long as we don't have that knowledge we have to stick to other sources of speculation.

Now Inzil looks pretty suspicious to me. He started the speculation in good time and it feels like he first just notched it forwards carefully. Also his willing to lynch a submarine instead of no lynch in as small village as ten looks suspicious.

If the wolves did not know each others' identities on Hour1, I would actually be willing to bet (well just a little) on Zil & Greenie being our remaining "committee members". If they did know each other though, then I really need to re-consider as then it looks far less likely, especially Zil's vote would look far better then (well, depending also whether it was a cross post or not).

Continuing the speculation... Eönwe's behaviour in the end was kind of interesting as well. First he announces he will abstain from voting, then he tries a tie. Why? Wishing to save wilwa or Greenie then (knowing his mate was in trouble)? He probably didn't know about Zil's second vote for wilwa as it is posted at the same minute.

McCaber? Why didn't he vote? He was right there before and after the DL! I'm looking forwards to hear some explanations to that. Also how come Rikae missed the DL as well? Well, she at least cursed it. McCaber I didn't see even commenting on that...


I'll add the boldings to the beginning later as I'm willing to post this before the DL (and need to have a cigarette next).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Meh. It'd be doing me a big favor to highlight them, but I'm not going to count non-highlighted votes as non-votes, because then we could get into loads of trouble.

Sorry about that. I'll highlight from now on.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Wouldn't you like to know?

Well, I called it.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Maybe the moddess will clarify (or perhaps leave it unknown to torment us ).

[Inziladun]

Actually, in the event that the committee did not know one another until the end of the first Hour, not voting would have been the smart way for them to go. That would explain why Wilwa said she was on board with no one dying.

[satansaloser2005]

A cell phone vibrates against a wooden table. Its owner picks it up, illuminating the screen and reading the display.



1 New Message

It is our opinion that McCaber should not stay until morning. While he is chattery, he has said little to advance our discussions thus far. Also, he's eaten all the mints.

Regards



Mere moments later, McCaber receives a call via the Cobbler phone, which informs him that he is needed back home to attend to some work business. He leaves his drink on the bar, gathers his things, and walks out.

When he returns home, he finds a check for his expenses and a small cake.





In the Cobbler:
Rikae
Lottie
Shasta
Dun
Greenie
Agan
Nog
Mac
Steve


Checked out:
Boro (went to deal with his puppy after riding out the storm)
Wilwa (committee member, realized she left the oven on)
McCaber (guest, expelled for hogging the cashews)

[Inziladun]

McCaber, eh? Standard question, "Why him?" I'll look back at what he said, but first this.

Nog, the question of whether the committee knew one another before apparently will remain a mystery, at least for now.

As I said here, however, I think not voting would have been the obvious option for baddies in the dark.
I did suggest, and considered it. If I were one of the committee, I could have easily followed through on it with consistency.

[Nogrod]

Well then. Forget my questions on McCaber... why him beats me right now, although his last min ute action was odd, and I need to go to sleep like now.

I was having an intention to make a comment about Mac as well but the DL came too early for me to have time to include it there. But okay, swiftly now.

So did you really think a tie would have been a good idea Mac? If you are a wolf and knew wilwa was as well it would have been really bold & beautiful; "listen to me, I will make the tie right now and none of you shalll vote after me" - well, that actually sounds more like the phantom...

Okay. More later - and hopefully I'm not the only one to post on this thread thisHour.