WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kitanna]

Inzil stayed late to clean up the mess left by the unfortunate Pitch's death. There was no need for the villagers to be reminded of their tragic mistake. However, the blood stain wasn't coming up out of the wood despite all his vigorous scrubbing. A rug of sorts would need to be put down before tomorrow.

The door to the tavern opened. The night air stuck in Inzil's throat. The sheer bitterness of it seized his lungs. This weather was too cold for decent Hobbitfolk to live in.

“We're closed and you know it,” he said to the intruder. His eyes never left the blood stain, his hands continuing their work.

“Won't you even serve us a mug of hot cider on a cold night like this?” Three pairs of snow covered Hobbit feet circled Inzil.

He got to his feet and shook his rag in their faces. “Go home to your families! How can you want hot cider or anything else after what we done to poor Pitch today. Get out of here.”

One of the intruders grabbed hold of Inzil's feet, wrestling him to the ground. When he was down another grabbed hold of his feet. The third grabbed a stray scarf and slipped it around Inzil's neck.

The barkeep spurted and choked, trying to kick off his attackers. As the life drained away his fight slowed. As the last breath escaped, there was a brief moment when a third eye shown on his forehead. The three dragged him out into the snow to leave him for their wolfy compatriots.

They went home content in the knowledge they had killed the seer.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Glirdan
G55
Nerwen
Legate
Nogrod
Lommy
Aganzir
Sally
Kath

Day 2 Begins
If you did not vote yesterday and do not vote again today you will be modfired

[Nogrod]

Uh-oh. That was bad news...

Thinking positively, there should be a hint of some sort, probably clear enough in Zil's posting on D1 as otherwise the wolves are too darn lucky.

I'm going to look for something in there and suggest a few more pairs of eyes do the same so that we miss nothing.

[Nogrod]

Well, there goes the optimism...

I can't see an obvious reason for the wolves to pick Zil except that he was non-controversial and not suspected in any major way by anyone - and his early vote for G55 doesn't stand out in any way.

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times):

Originally Posted by Zil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Originally Posted by Zil

The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon.

So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

[Nogrod]

One thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of Menel: his quite strong statement "more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat" comes already at time when Pitch has suspected Menel, Nerwen has commented quite neutrally on it, and G55 has carried off with it. So there were actually only two suspicions on Menel at that time and he went that strong against them?

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.


EDIT: X'd with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

I'll post D1 voting and then I'll be off for some time. Be back later.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 2
Agan -> Pitch 2
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch 3
Nog -> Pitch 4
Legate -> G55 3

From the Pitch-lynchers Sally's and my votes stand up, clearly, whereas G55's and Agan's votes are more safe. So if someone tried to save a wolf-G55, it most probably would be Sally or me (which I am not). Also if G55 is a wolf then Legate looks quite good as that would have been extremely risky at the last minutes as he couldn't have been sure someone wouldn't come in and still vote for G55 (it was 8 minutes before the DL).

But there's one major "if" there: if G55 is a wolf. Now that we don't know, but if we'd have to vote now I'd be inclined to test that "if".

[Nerwen]

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

[Galadriel55]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 (2)
Agan -> Pitch (2)
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch (3)
Nog -> Pitch (xed with sally) (4)
Legate -> G55 (xed with Nog) (3)

(innocents in italics)

When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents. Instead of doing this by the tally, I'll go back and try to see when the suspicion on Pitch (possibly myself too, I'll see if there's some worthwhile suspicion) began to rise in relation to the tally. And I'll also comment on some things that were said yesterDay.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

Now, why do you say that?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern?



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

And that's an interesting choice of words....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And that's an interesting choice of words....

What do you find interesting in it?

[Nerwen]

Zilanalysis

#4. IC banter.

#16. Agrees with Kath that the Cobbler is particularly dangerous. Disagrees with Pitch that Menel's "obvious" advice on wolf-catching is particularly suspicious (using the phrase "I don't see that" –a possible hint?). Approves of Pitch being vocal, however. Points out that the cobbler needs to avoid Night-kills– this was a response to the exchange between Kath (#11), Agan (#12)and Pitch (#13). In context, it doesn't seem a particularly "Captain Obvious" statement at all– which is interesting since later it became something of an issue.


#32. IC banter. Responds to G55's and my own comments about Menel (#25, #26):

Originally Posted by Zil

Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.

Tells G55 (again in response to #26) that he recalls Agan calling the Cobbler "she" before.


#39. Accepts my pointing out (#33) that G55 and my posts commenting on Menel's "obviousness" actually crossed. Accepts Menel's clarification at #38.


#55. (responding to Legate):

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

Further comments that "The whole thing about Menel looks like the beginning stirrings of a bandwagon."

Disagrees with Pitch that Kath's question at #19 is suspicious. Is somewhat wary of Pitch.

Responding to Shasta at #53, says he too is "rather bothered" by G55, and may vote her.

Also in response to Shasta, who asks why those who "pounced" on Menel for "stating the obvious" didn't do the same to Zil (see #16.), says, "I don't know either. Are you trying to incite them to do so?"


#56. Vote-post.

Originally Posted by Zil

Ok. It's bedtime, and with the morning madness that is my weekday routine, I may or may not make back before DL.

I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there. However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.

++G55

Choose well.

Conclusion: Well, it certainly looks pretty straightforward: his dream was most likely either G55 (wolf) or Menel (innocent). The good news is that it could not have been Pitch, since he is somewhat suspicious of him.

The voting-pattern yesterDay also strongly suggests G55 might be a wolf, rescued from the gallows by her comrades. (However, we should bear in mind that, by definition, this would be a perfect framing-opportunity.)

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.; edit 2: typo.