WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Galadriel55]

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.

Pitch -> Nog
Zil -> G55
G55 -> Pitch
Menel -> Zil
Shasta -> G55 (2)
Agan -> Pitch (2)
Lommy -> Agan
Sally -> Pitch (3)
Nog -> Pitch (xed with sally) (4)
Legate -> G55 (xed with Nog) (3)

(innocents in italics)

When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents. Instead of doing this by the tally, I'll go back and try to see when the suspicion on Pitch (possibly myself too, I'll see if there's some worthwhile suspicion) began to rise in relation to the tally. And I'll also comment on some things that were said yesterDay.

Edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

Now, why do you say that?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, why do you say that?

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...and really only gives a solid statement on Pitch (and perhaps [b]Nogrod, but as it's based on an emoticon...) while also saying this -

- which is extremely confusing; if you don't agree with Pitch's perspective (hence being suspicious of him on your list), how can his vote be okay?

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fair enough, but then I'm a little confused by what you find suspicious. Is it just that Kath came out of the gate asking questions about the role, or what?

I think Agan was referring to herself when she said “hypocritical”; she called out Kath for bringing up the cobbler, but admitted that she does it herself when she plays in a game with a cobbler, which makes her hypocritical.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. I had to check back as to what Menel actually said, and the following is the thing making me uneasy with him:

Now, first of all, if there are three Days we only lynch innocents - and the wolves score effectively during the Night - we have basically lost as the wolves only need to ask for the cobbler to vote with them on D4. In case we had chances on D4 (like ranger made a succesful save one Night) then I think it is essential we look at everyone as thoroughly as we can because that lynch decides whether the game continues or whether we lose. So any "let's lynch the influential people" default-setting is basically dangerous rather than helpful.

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

The way you flip-flop about him, too – you defend him in one post, but then list a number of reasons (f.ex. #74) for why you could suspect him, and back and forth.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of agree with you here. But the problem for me is that she always is like that and ends up lynched on D1 just because - and more often innocent than not.

That's quite close. Mostly Day 2, though. Wanna continue the pattern?



PITCH SUSPICION - well, it kind of just flew up right after Pitch's vote. And then people started voting for him one after the other. What alerts me is that Nog was the second last (crossed with third last and last) person to vote, though he flew at Pitch the moment he (ie Pitch) wrote his pre-vote suspicion on him.

There's not much to be gained by analysing it this way, I see.

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil

Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.


Edit: xed with sally

[Kath]

What I would like to say, though, is that I would put my money on Menelbeing Inzil's dream. In post #55

Originally Posted by Inzil
Hmm. G55 may indeed have not noticed that habit of Agan's before, or she may have forgotten it. If anything strikes me about G55, it's the questioning of Agan combined with what appears to be a piling on to what Pitch started about Menel.

He clearly concentrates on Menel here.

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

I will go do the ubiquitous Inzil analysis. The more eyes on his posts the better with all this talk of misrepresenting words going on!

[Kath]

Post 1:
I can't see anything in this that would suggest Seer. Given the current furore over G55's use of 'savage' - if we're picking at everything - Inzil says it here.

Post 2:
Apart from that sentence: 'meh, I don't see that' in response to Pitch again clues are well hidden if they're there. Does appear to be defending Menel, or at least trying to lessen or dampen suspicious of him. Also deflecting suspicion from Pitch arising as a result of his (Inzil's) disagreement with him over Menel.

Post 3:
Menel has merited a comment for his words, but more than one person homing in on it at once puts one in mind of a pack of salivating beasts eyeing some raw meat.
Menel could be seen as suspicious but the people bandwaggoning him are much more suspicious. Is my reading of that. Suggesting perhaps not having dreamed Menel. He has merited a comment - if you are the Seer and you've dreamed of an innocent and you're trying to leave clues, this isn't enough to later use as evidence.

G55, Pitch and to a degree Agan were the people who had so far had something to say against Menel. Less so Agan, as she wrote that he could be 'either' and that she was waiting to make her mind up about him.

Post 4:
The above being said, Inzil is ignoring the stating the obvious from Menel. Or actually agreeing with it. That is quite a definitive support for Menel there.

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Post 5:
Thinks Pitch voted suddenly for Nog and occasionally wonders about Pitch. States that he is bothered by G55 and will likely vote for her. Looks like there's some suspicion of Shasta for acting as though he is trying to get others to bandwagon Inzil.

Post 6:
I guess I can see Pitch's point on Nog, and it's tempting to follow Pitch's lead there.
This sentence makes me less suspicious of Pitch as it might suggest Inzil had dreamed of Pitch and therefore his lead wouldn't be a negative one. However, as an innocent doesn't actually 'know' anything I think this would be a misleading clue for the Seer to lead if he had dreamed of Pitch.

The next sentence:
However, I think that in the totality of circumstance, G55 looks worse.
This is stronger. May be more likely to be the dream.

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)

If the dream choices are Menel and G55 I'm not sure I've really answered the question of which is more likely. Feels like G55, and the suspicion there was consistent.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Kath

Now this is interesting. My reading of that quote from Inzil makes me think that it's G55 that Inzil is concentrating on here, not Menel. I would say this is more adding suspicion to G55 than trying to make Menel look innocent.

Well, I know that Inzil couldn't have dreamt me, because then he wouldn't have voted me. But to explain my point about the quote, he dismisses his first suspicion on me as a perhaps, maybe not. But the second one, concerning Menel, is what turns the tide.

Originally Posted by Kath

(Aside: long Pitch list post here. Backtracks on Menel suspicion. Only says about G55 that she has made a content free first post. Then notes this was written before she added suspicion on Menel. Doesn't then follow this up with anything within this post about G55, but does suspect Nog as a result of his catch up with the thread. This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

Except that Pitch is a dead ordo.



I'm not feeling very well at the moment (or, rather, am feeling very unwell), so I don't think I can participate toDay as much as I would have liked to. I'll be around, but not as much as I would have liked.



EDIT: to add to my first point, if Inzil wanted to hint at my being evil, he would not have dismissed the first point so lightly. Instead, he puts emphasis on me questioning Menel - and votes me because of that, not because of the she-cobbler case or whatever else.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

He did defend ("defend" may be a too strong word here though) Menel, Agan and Kath to some degree by kind of questioning the validity of some suspicions thrown at the three. He seemed to switch his mind somewhat on Pitch and me (first thinking Pitch's suspicion on Menel and Kath and his vote on me looked bad and then later saying his vote on me looked something he'd consider following - but that G55 looked worse).

The strongest there was seems to be his concern on behalf of Menel - like these (two different times): So he at least was concerned about the suspicions on Menel which could indicate towards Menel being dreamt of innocent (it might be a decent seer pick as he probably hasn't ever played with Menel before). It could, but does it? Dunno.

I am not really sure if this isn't a bit stretched. What Inzil said about Menel does not sound very strong to me (at least what you quote - but I have to reread it myself to see what he said otherwise). But again, for sure, a Seer should leave hints (as certainly he would know) - but possibly on Day 1 they do not need to be so strong. If he dreamed of an innocent, he could have just listed that person among the bunch of random people he trusts. If he dreamed of a Wolf, then he might have voiced a mild suspicion.

I think I'll reread his posts myself to see what I can make of it. Also, there is still the question whether it was "random", or whether it was because the WWs actually spotted some Seerishness. In any case, it is clear that the WWs do want to kill the Seer, but then again, on first Night... I mean, that would have to be really good spotting on their part.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another thing possibly supporting the idea Zil might have dreamt of G55 as a wolf: with the paranoic eyes of the wolves at Night searching for seer-hints, they might have read Zil saying "more than one person homing on it..." in the following way: "first suspector okay, the second one - aka G55 - is a salivating beast". That would be strongly said, like a seer might do it. And Zil went to vote G55.

I think this, however, is certainly stretched.

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer (unless Shasta is one of them, in which case anything is possible).

With my - and the wolves' - knowledge (ie that I am innocent), yesterDay was a field day for the wolves. They had two innocent bandwagons to choose from.
(...)
When looking at the tally objectively, I'd suspect myself as well, except that fortunately I'm not schizophrenic. It's really hard to analyse, because both bandwagons were against innocents.

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive; and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

However, there is some stuff G55 says which makes it sound genuine, and which also a desperate innocent could say, like this reaction to Shasta:

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Now that's really misquoting me! I said that Pitch had good reasoning for his vote for Nog, but I disliked his suspicion on Kath. I didn't like his perspective on Kath, but I thought he explained his vote alright. It’s not like you either completely like someone’s behaviour or completely dislike it; you could like a part of it and dislike another part.

or even this about Nog:

Originally Posted by G55

Nog, you say Pitch misquoted your "40 posts" phrase, but you're doing the same to Menel's "three Days". It's not a default setting; it's a number out of the air pretty much. It's there to get the idea across, as an example. I don't like it that that is what you find suspicious.

And I don't think the "savage" quote has much of a merit either. After all, people usually *do* say something when a Seer dies. Of course it can be faked, but I certainly don't think a Wolf would intentionally say such a thing in the sense of "mwahaha, that was soo savage! Did you see? I love blood!" - or whichever way it was that sally meant it.

Originally Posted by G55

Meanwhile, Nog doesn't look all that good. If anything, he's topping my list of suspects toDay.

This however again does ring my bells - because it looks a bit like turning suspicion to somebody else in the village.

Originally Posted by Kath

This strikes me as off. If G55 is a wolf I think Pitch could be a wolf buddy.)

(...)

My G55/Pitch theory is put in jeopardy by that vote of G55's for Pitch. It's very bold wolf on wolf if it is that!

Wait, I don't get it... isn't Pitch dead and innocent???

Altogether, major observations: I am not sure what to make of Nog today, his activity in looking for clues about Inzil's death is sort of mingled with some rather confusing conclusions and most of all, certain "suggestive behavior", it seems to me. Nerwen comes and has some sharp points which look genuine. I am not sure about G55. Of course, if Nog is a Wolf, then yesterDay might have been a really tight escepe from the noose based on a fellow-save (and the same goes if Sally was the Wolf, or even if both of them were, since they crossposted), but then again, one could ask, if G55 is under suspicion (but then again, Day 1 suspicions might not mean much), would it be worth it for the WWs to save her one Night and still having her threatened (possibly even more) the next Day?

I will check on Zil's posts and be around...

EDIT: x-ed with G55.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Basically, from what was said this far, I am somewhat worried about toDay depending a lot on G55 being a Wolf. G55 is acting very "hedgehogishly" (defensively), and I think she could act like that if she is a Wolf under such suspicion - but there is truth to that it would be a great frame-up too, seeing she was the second runner.

You'd act hedgehogishly too you it was your name instead of mine in yesterDay's tally.

(I'm doing it again, aren't I?)

Truth be told, when I look at my posts from the side, I see exactly what you mean. I guess I'm too frustrated with the village and my own inability to prove my innocence in a way other that by dying.

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, those are sounding more like Wolfish - especially the first one insisting, basically, that the single reason of Inzil's death was to lay a false trail. First, I doubt the WWs would have had just that as a motive;

But it has happened before, especially with the first kill. In my past games more often that not the first kill was either a trailless one, one with a very confusing trail (eg someone who suspects half the village), or one who suspects an innocent. By killing the last kind of person, the wolves leave the village with the choice: to dismiss it as a fake-trail kill, or to analyse it based on the wolves thinking that person was the Seer - and since the village can't just throw the second option out they follow the false lead. (meaning that if A suspected B and was killed, possibly for Seer reasons, it would make sense that B could be a wolf).

Just why am I explaining all this? You know it already. The wolves could have a misleading trail as the chief motive.

Originally Posted by Legate

...and most of all, if the reason was to just frame up G55, why Inzil, then? I mean, is there any logical connection between those? If you eliminate the Seer-reason, then why Inzil and not somebody else? You know what I mean?

I doubt that framing me in particular was the main motivation, but it's the easiest to do. You just have to look at the tally to suspect me already. Inzil was the first to vote me. But even so, voting me was probably a bonus to it - once again, I'm not that special that the wolves want to frame me that badly. They just want to frame an innocent. And Inzil very conveniently suspected me, ie an innocent. He's the person A from the above scenario.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, I wonder who and what we're dealing with here. Innocent Nogrod? Nogwolf tossing his comrade under the bus? Nogwolf cackling to himself at the initial success of his frame-up on an innocent? Discuss.

Bussing is what it looks like. On the other hand, maybe that's why it's something else. But if I had to say just based on those few posts, I'd say bussing.

Galadriel's posts today are pretty fishy. Just saying.

Originally Posted by G55

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.

A savage blow would have been much better than a savage blow, a really savage blow.

Originally Posted by Kath

(Aside: Ps. a message for Lommy who I know will appreciate it: you haven't seen before how looks the trumpet! <-- This was our favourite line!!)

Noooooo! last time Agan posted that I had that incredibly annoying song stuck in my head all morning and now I will have it all evening. *hits head against wall and starts to listen to Laibach*

Next up: replying to stuff from late yesterDay. There really haven't been too many posts in this game...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate, bolding mine

(I'll be watching Lommy for the Menel-wagoning early on and the general "harshness", but maybe it was just the state of mind)

More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly.

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.

Originally Posted by Kath

I will try to develop more of a brain for future use!

<3

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm not going to be around much today as I have a lot of real life things to do.

As such, I agree on G55; she does grasp at straws for suspicions and the voting pattern for yesterday is suspicious and implicates Sally as well.

++Galadriel55

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

More like, it's how I think but normally I don't phrase stuff so bluntly.

How nice

Originally Posted by Lommy

If Galadriel is a wolf, then Sally's vote is also worth raising eyebrows at, not only Nog's.

For sure, and like I have noted already before, they actually cross-posted at that point - so theoretically, it could even be possible for them to both be Wolves. But that is a lot of speculation already, and it all comes back to G55's role anyway.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I was saying that wolves like to kill people that lead the village down a false trail to an innocent - any innocent (not specifically me because I'm me, just any innocent that suits them best). Other factors play a role as well, but let's not overcomplicate it. In this case, this "any innocent" happens to be me. So yes, they framed me, but not to frame me specifically, just to frame an innocent.

Is this clearer?

Not very much. I get the general concept - that much is clear to me. But now it seems you are actually saying something different again. So what you are saying now is: the WWs wanted to frame any innocent, so they killed Zil. Not because they would think he was the Seer, but to frame any innocent. And because you were suspected by him, it is you who is being framed? Do I understand it right?

EDIT: x-ed with G55

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

That's a savage blow. A really savage blow.

And that's an interesting choice of words....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

And that's an interesting choice of words....

What do you find interesting in it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Because, looking at his posts, he seems a very convenient kill. On the other hand, possibly the wolves saw him as the Seer. The first argument sounds more probable. Inzil did not leave that clear a clue, so either the wolves indeed were really really sharp (possible) and omned on him because he was the Seer, or they thought he would be a good misleading village-confusing kill (probable), or a bit of both - he's a good kill, and maybe a Seer (also pretty probable). But to kill him solely because he's the Seer - man, the wolves have to be sharp - which doesn't make it impossible, only less probable.

G55, short of a Day One reveal, I don't think *anyone* has *ever* been killed on Night Two "solely because he was the Seer". Sorry, but this is just confusing the issue.

Now, in your previous post, you said this:

Originally Posted by G55

I think that Zil has been killed either because he did not leave a clear enough trail, or because he left a nice false trail in my direction; I doubt that the wolves saw him as the Seer

*Here* you are pretty clear that you don't believe Seerish-ness was a significant factor at all, and *that's* what I was asking about.

[Nerwen]

...But anyway, I have to get some sleep. See you all later!

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by G55

What do you find interesting in it?

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

And yet, as much as it stood out, the comment itself strikes me as a very common G55 thing to say, having seen her and many other innocents (myself included) lynched early in the game due to the same problem: wording. And yet, in such a game, where we cannot read each others emotions, faces and body language, it is the only the factual thing we have to go on. But it still stands out to me as a very innocent G55 thing to do.

Her voting placement (which I apologize for my lack of yesterDay) along with that of Noggins looks rather bad on both of them. Perhaps taking a closer look at the voting and timing would be beneficial to us, as I seem to recall a slew of votes all roughly at the same time. Or maybe that's just my time meld acting up again......

Anyways, I must be off. I will be on periodically to comment as I can, but today(RL) commences my five days without rest period of the show.....again.....

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Oh you know, couldn't have anything to do with your use of the word savage. Definitely didn't stand out to me either.

I honestly don't get what's so special about comparing the loss of a Seer on Night 2 to a savage blow.

Originally Posted by some dictionary

Savage [meaning#2]: barbarous, beastly, bestial, bloodthirsty, bloody, brutal, brutish, cruel, devilish, diabolical, ferocious, fierce, harsh, inhuman, merciless, murderous, pitiless, ravening, ruthless, sadistic, vicious

Don't you agree that the loss of our Seer can be called brutal, cruel, murderous, or harsh perhaps? Honestly, people!