WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kath]

Yep, I'm happy with the idea that Legate voted early for someone who the wolves couldn't then get a bandwagon going on (Nog). Thus sally had to be sacrificed to avoid suspicion.

++LEGATE

[Nogrod]

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I still think our best bet toDay is Legate as there are so many questionmarks there with the others; like that an innocent Shasta might have said what he did just being indecisive, or that Nerwen might have been just a very subtle wolf I know she is cabable of, or that Menel after all, with a theory built to pick a predetermined person fails to acknowledge that it actually fitted a (now) known wolf as well...

But well, that all is very indecisive as now. If I have energy, I try to make a kind of summa of my notes from yesterDay, if not, then I'll be back tomorrow aka on the second half of the Day.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hmm... I took clearly a too big a task for myself and the time is running (about 2 AM now as I write this first sentence), but I went back to read yesterDay picking up every suspicion voiced and towards the end of the Day the "defences" as well (not that there were many). And yes the picture blurs a bit.

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

I'll say this: I held my vote so long waiting for my heart to come back and tell us what this "something" was– then realised time had run out.

But he was also suggesting Legate might be more suspicious (even though he already backtracked that in the same post saying we should not spread the votes any more - which is reasonable and a good idea in a situation where three people already had votes).

Also Nerwen had an interesting point about Shasta and Legate not being keen to lynch G55 before Sally came in as an alternative - which is a point we should check. I mean if that is true, then it looks bad for Shasta.

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Been checking the thread sporadically from my phone. I'll make a decent post later when I'm at my computer, but I noticed a luminescent gleam mentioning my behavior at the end of yesterday, so I thought I'd clarify that, in my paranoia, I was momentarily convinced that Sally was hinting at being the Ranger. That sane paranoia was also sure that Agan was a wolf that had spent the early part of the game posing as the cobbler.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I checked– not as much of that as I'd thought.

That would be exactly what I would have said.

I decided to go and check through D2 for that as it felt important (more important than my notes on yesterDay which I can still type tomorrow aka later toDay if it feels like something that helps).

Now both Legate and Shasta voted G55 on D1.

ON D2 they both are quite ambiguos about her, more suspecting than not (there's a clear difference on that Legate discusses her over and over again ending up in that limbo while Shasta posted very little on D2 in general).

An interesting exchange happens between Lommy and Legate when Lommy notes to him that if G55 is a wolf not only me (whom Legate had concentrated) but also Sally could be a wolf. Legate accepts it as "theoretically" possible (how nice) but thinks it so much speculation it would be better revealed with G55's role...

After I (and few others) started pushing for Sally to be a candidate, Legate says he's not willing to jump into Sallywagon.

I pressed on my #159 & #160 (15 to 10 minutes before the DL) for a pick between the two believing they were both wolves (votes then G55/3, Sally/2)... and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

Well it strengthens my belief in Legate being a wolf (the answer to Lommy mentioned above!). But with Shasta it leaves me quite out in the open still

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

Nope. At least one innocent would've had to vote for you, Nog. Even if Nerwen (or Shasta) is a wolf, they couldn't very well just give you a vote and wait for the other (or Menel) to follow suit. There was no chance they could've saved sally, what with the general opinion leaning towards lynching her rather than you.

Look at the timing of the last votes: Sally nearly was saved, and Nogrod lynched by default (though I doubt that could have been planned). And I would say Sally must have had hopes of turning the vote away from herself, even at the last. What I mean is, I don't think the outcome of yesterDay's lynch was quite as certain beforehand as you think.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nog brought up a good point about Kath. Yes obviously if she was a wolf, she would've voted for Nogrod with Legate instead of me. Shasta looks relatively good, especially after yesterday. Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him), plus I have a hard time seeing Legate defending a fellow so outrageously obviously. Method of elimination (plus the points I mentioned earlier) leave Nerwen as the remaining wolf.

Agan, you know I hate to use "if I were a wolf" reasoning... but I suppose there's a time and a place for everything. For what it's worth, then: if I were a wolf, I believe I'd have thrown Sally under a bus a lot quicker than I did.

More to the point– since, as it happens, I'm not a wolf , I know you must have wrongly eliminated someone from your list of possibilities.

Now, it seems likely enough the wolves knew that they would not be able to count on each other being around in time to secure the vote. If both Legate and Kath are wolves, and both *had* to vote early, the latter may not have *dared* follow the former's vote, for fear of the village catching on– which might well have done for them. Do you see what I'm saying? I don't know if that was the case, of course– but I don't think it's safe simply to rule Kath out yet, anyway.

Then, Menel:

Originally Posted by Agan

Menel looks okay too (I admit it may be because I pretty much agree with him)

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Meneltarmacil]

I'm going to have to reevaluate my suspicion of Nerwen now that I see that all but the first vote for Sally were cross-posted. Occurring within one minute of each other, in fact, which makes it highly improbable that she was lying about it being a cross-post.

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, then. I'm voting for

++Legate of Amon Lanc

because of how defensive he was about Sally and the aforementioned voting patterns.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nog

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

Hmm. Had Kath been suspicious of you herself prior to that, though? I think I'll go back and check that.

Originally Posted by Nog

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

Nothing really to say about this, other than that I agree. Particularly because there wasn't a four-man-pileup of votes later in the day.

Originally Posted by Nog

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

It was at about that point my paranoia about Agan had started to kick in. It really took off after Sally made that post with those vague Ranger-hints. But at the very end I decided to go with my gut over last-minute worries.

Originally Posted by Nog

and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

What pushed it over the edge for me, combined with what I'd thought D1, was that "slip" that it was pointed out G55 made. I thought, as frustrated as she'd been all day, she'd been frustrated right into blowing her cover.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

This, along with really concentrating on "influential" people and (it seems) completely discounting wolf-on-wolf as a tactic - which bothers me, because the only real pointer towards Menel's innocence seems to be the possibility that he was Inzil's first dream. It kind of seems like he's been coasting under that particular cloud for a while. I think I'll go look at him next.

Originally Posted by Menel

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

If you're only left with Legate and Kath, and think only one is a wolf... then where's the third wolf, Menel?

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.