WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Kath]

Seems that was a vain hope then.

++NERWEN

There felt to have been a bit of a forced push for a Menel-wagon, largely led by Nerwen and Shasta. I had seen more to worry me in Nerwen thus the vote.

[Nogrod]

Oh my... after a busy day I have spent the evening both watching football and writing Arda Cup match-ups - and totally forgotten about this.

Soo, we have the first vote (one out of five) already. And no one else posting but Kath thus far, and she is voting early again... Bad. (yes RL is nasty with some deadlines, but still)

I need to take at least some time now to try and give my two cents on this - even if the Arda Cup match I'm writing is in a really tight situation...


Hoping to hear from you others as well!

[Nogrod]

Kath - probably isn't a wolf. For mainly two reasons.

First she didn't follow Legate's vote on me on D3 when she had a chance - and the wolves were so close to winning the game at that point that she should have tried it were she a wolf. Now I think it was Shasta who asked whether she had suspected me earlier aka. would that have been a too hard a turnaround from her to suddenly vote me. But I think there were enough reasons to vote me on D3 as I had been one of the leading forces lynching two innocents in a row: so I don't think it would have been too risky for her to say "Yeah, Nog looks so bad now that I'm going with him as I'm short on time"...

Secondly she voted Legate quite early (again) yesterDay, but there was already a vote on Legate by Agan and at least I had voiced suspicion on him. So if she is a wolf, she would have wilfully aided with the downfall of her only mate - and on that Day she had actually made a more or less full analysis of us people left in the game, so she could have picked any other line of reasoning if she needed to help her comrade and willing not to be left alone...


Menel - I do find quite suspicious. At times I'm kind of feeling he's just a bit out of touch (see his discussion with Nerwen yesterDay) but there are things making me suspect him - apart from the general suspicion he seems to gather now as he did then years ago...

First, him having time-zone changing problems when Sally was lynched would fit nicely into the question why was Sally not helped (or why Sally possibly looked forwards to someone saving her at the last minutes - as she didn't know about the problems Menel was having?), as he didn't vote at all on D3 when Sally was lynched.

Secondly this little quote from yesterDay spotted by Aganzir really makes all my radars go red (if she hit it right, I will bow to her for that, helping us from beyond the grave):

Originally Posted by Menel

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Just how on earth could anyone but a wolf-fellow of Legate say something like that?

Actually it looks so bad I'm almost ready to vote Menel now... (didn't know it when I started this post intending to make a few checks on all of you)

Well, I'll try to check Nerwen and Shasta for a few points I have in mind as well, but Menel looks pretty bad, I must say.

[Nogrod]

Shasta - I was a bit amazed by you talking about Sally's "ranger hints" which made you wawer... and I had hard time spotting it until I found this like now:

Originally Posted by Sally's vote-post

Voted now. Sleeping now. Would be nice not to die now. That would be bad. Sleeping now.

So was that it?

Well, to be straight I can understand it coming 10+ minutes from the DL, but anyway... you sound pretty jumpy if that was what alerted and confused you for real. At least I took it as a normal Sally-talk and more like a sign of guilt than an innocent role (wouldn't she have cried a lot louder if she was the ranger?).


Nerwen - I know you are the sneaky one if you need or want to, and I could persuade myself to think you saved me on D3 just to make yourself look better by lynching Sally at the last minute (when I had already given up and thought I was lynched a minute before the DL as I was then the first to gain the highest vote).

Also, Kath suggested you were trying to suggest Menel and Kath ignoring Legate yesterDay, but after checking that I find that was readable from your post, but perhaps not exactly to the point.

And it is hard for me to believe you were wilfully lynching your mates in crime two times in a row, especially as you had suspected me a lot from the very beginning and when the competition was between myself and Sally, it would have been easy for a lupine-Nerwen to vote me on that Day the wolves were so near victory...


So it leaves Menel as my top suspect toDay.

If we lynch him and he is not a wolf, then it requires some further thought and throwing away many of the premises I have now, but unless some extraordinary things or arguments come to light, I'd say Menel is our best bet.

[Meneltarmacil]

So far, I've viewed Nogrod as innocent and I have no reason to change my views on him.

Kath, I agree, probably isn't a wolf because of her helping to lynch both Sally and Legate.

That leaves Nerwen, Shasta, and yours truly.

I am not a wolf.

Nerwen and Shasta both voted for Legate and Sally, but only when both were beyond salvation. Nerwen was the last of the two to vote, but I don't know how much that signifies.

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

All in all, I'm pretty sure the last wolf is either Shasta or Nerwen, and I'm leaning more toward Nerwen.

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Because of a reason X or because she has one vote already?

So why Nerwen over Shasta by you?

As mentioned above, she voted for Sally after having read your vote-post for her, unlike Shasta who was cross-posting instead. As the debate was mostly whether or not to vote for you or Sally, she was probably hoping to kick you off instead. Once votes were adding up for Sally with the deadline in sight, that's when she decided it was a lost cause.

Again, that's simply an expansion of why her having the last vote might make her slightly more suspicious, but not by much.

That said, I am also considering Shasta as the last wolf, especially for the way he jumped on "Galwolf" in the G55 bandwagon after the latter's "frustrated innocent" post started to sway some people.