Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

But not, of course, if the third wolf had already voted (just saying); also, why "assuming" Inzilwolf and Sallyordo, when we now know that to be their roles? What you're really assuming here (or want us to assume) is your own innocence, on which the argument depends.

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.

Originally Posted by Pitch

And honestly, Shasta, your last words here sound a bit like, "Hm, I can't really spin this into anything incriminating, but something always sticks."

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.

In any case, I'm having to run out the door now. I should be back in a few hours.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.

Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know, but that's another Freudian interpretation which you'll probably call a stretch (and maybe rightly, I don't know).

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.

Fair point.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh my cupcakes. I was reading through the thread trying to get a bead on Pitch when I saw this post. And then I realized....

Originally Posted by tiny old me

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels.

Have I been tricked by Mr. Wolfgreeable all this time?

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously I am holding my vote in reserve until the morning. I still can't decide, mostly because I suspect each of you at least enough to not remove you from my vote list. A few (and I do mean a few) points on each of the remaining players follows.

Shasta

• Voted for Nessa Day One: I do not consider that the mark of an innocent Shasta, nor necessarily of a bussing Shasta. That said, he was the first vote for Nessa. That said, Day 1 was a bit of a wreck for a lot of us (the lynch result notwithstanding), so he could have been trying to distance himself from a mate or he could have been genuinely suspicious of her. Really, this doesn't do anything for me either way.
• His jab at Dun here feels to me like a Wolfsicle playing ball with his mate. "That's not how the game is supposed to be played" strikes me as an in-joke between wolves. Of course his comment about me voting an absent Eomer seems enough like an innocent thing for him to say, so....again, I don't know.
• His comment to me in #112 seems genuine, but then he so often does, so....then his following post (#113, because that's how numbers work) makes a very good point about the Kitagast that I hadn't thought of during my first consideration of the topic. Mind, I had already voted, but that was a very good point of him to make, and one I don't think a Shasta!wolf would have made so readily.
• Now his #131....that's an interesting one. He says, flat out, that tying the vote would be silly. If the tie had flopped to Kit, he could have come under suspicion, so I could see my sweet monstrel sacrificing DunDunDun for the sake of looking better upon the Morrow. It's the only possible smart maneuver for a wolf at that stage. (Do note that he says later that he never seriously considered tying the vote, so make of that what you will.)
• In his #165 he actually replies to me asking him to tell me he's not a wolf. I....am not entirely sure an innocent Shasta would bother to reply to that statement.
• He makes good points against Cop here but then votes for Eomer in what he admits is self-preservation. I won't hold the will the live against him, especially since he was correct in saying that voting for Cop at that stage would be rather useless.
• His commentary on me at #197 rings true; I should be dead, and I know that. Leaving me alive, however, would be beneficial to Shasta, given that I'd shown trust in him previously.

Pitch

• Of course we're familiar with #73, in which he (following Wolfiladun of all people) speculates that Fenrissa Telrunya may have voted him to make him look more innocent in the coming Days. I didn't think much of it until I realized that he was talking about one of the wolves and having that discussion with another.
• Oh, #83 and #84 looks like a potential wolf fishing to me. He instantly believed Kit (a wolf would know for sure, whereas an innocent would doubt) and immediately asked her for her other dream. That? That's a mark against right there. He then quickly flips to believing Dun (though I did much the same) and plays the "which way do I go?" game for a bit before finally siding with, you guessed it, the wolf. The entire way he handled that Day's reveals seems off to me; sure, I wanted Kit's dream too, but as long as she provided it before she died, she could still be a help to us. She was being rather curmudgeonly about the situation, but Pitch was pushing her right from the start. (That reminds me. I need to apologize to Kit later on....)
• My #106 should have been my red flag for the rest of the game. I continuously find myself agreeing with Pitch, which is often how I relate to a Wolfwife.
• You'll see here that Pitch makes the same point about Gal (knowing Kit was genuine because of her own role) that I make about him above. Interesting, that.
• "That was clever, whoever did it." This entire post (strangely, with the exception of the part where he butters me up ) looks suspect to me, though if he's not a wolf, I agree with him about how Cop seems to be trying to frame either Shasta or- Pitch, stop being so agreeable, you jerk!
• In regards to #195, I need only say one thing: You're right. We shouldn't rule out Cop. Nor should I rule out you.
• The start of his last vote post (and it will be his last, regardless) is not remotely funny at this stage of the game. I am actually waiting for the wolf to somehow manage to get me lynched, because I'm still not sure why I'm alive. He makes a fairly decent point about the convenience of who's left, except he's wrong (at least based on the information Cop would have had last Night): I had said I didn't want to vote Shasta.

Cop(out?)

• I have no basis for her playing style or behavior as a wolf, but what I have seen (opportunism, possible slips, some interactions with Dun that I find fishy) makes me think she is a very clever, very quick wolf cub.
• Not killing me would benefit her greatly, as it would seem too obvious a cub mistake to actually be a cub mistake. Of the three remaining, I think she could most easily profit from my existence; I've largely ignored her, which means I could probably be (to her) swayed to vote someone else if I just kept doing so. Depending on which games she's read on here, she would know that I don't perform too well at endgame, and that my performance in general has been slipping of late (a tendency I am certainly not proud of), so I could see her trying to capitalize on that for her own gains in hopes that I would suspect Shasta or Pitch on this last Day.

So at the end of this, I am left with one solid conclusion. I was right before.

Originally Posted by me

You're all guilty. Let's move on.

Menel, you would be just crazy enough to do that....

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Cop(out?)

• I have no basis for her playing style or behavior as a wolf, but what I have seen (opportunism, possible slips, some interactions with Dun that I find fishy) makes me think she is a very clever, very quick wolf cub.
• Not killing me would benefit her greatly, as it would seem too obvious a cub mistake to actually be a cub mistake. Of the three remaining, I think she could most easily profit from my existence; I've largely ignored her, which means I could probably be (to her) swayed to vote someone else if I just kept doing so. Depending on which games she's read on here, she would know that I don't perform too well at endgame, and that my performance in general has been slipping of late (a tendency I am certainly not proud of), so I could see her trying to capitalize on that for her own gains in hopes that I would suspect Shasta or Pitch on this last Day.

If you check the admin thread for this game, you'll see that I said (well in advance of roles being handed out, BTW) that I am reading the games at the Downs in chronological order. I think that earlier in the game thread here I mentioned which point I'm currently at, which is early 2006. The only players I knew anything about the playing style of outside this current game were Kitanna and Eomer, which means even my info on their playing style was 6 years out of date.

Accordingly, I have not actually read any of the games where you, Shasta or Pitch have played. I have no idea how each of you plays, outside what you tell me yourselves. So I'm pretty worried to hear that you often don't perform well at endgame...but it might explain why the wolf decided to get rid of G55 instead.

I don't see your logic for how not killing you would benefit me greatly. If I had been a wolf, I would certainly not have killed G55. Why would I kill someone who was extremely unlikely to vote for me, in order to try to persuade you, who I know next to nothing about and have hardly spoken to in this game, not to vote for me? Makes no sense. Nay, Sally, your suggestion that a hypothetical wolf-me would do such a thing, where there would be no gain in it for me, is a grievous insult.

Well, I'll get back to looking through the thread and finding out which of the other two it is. What a pain.

[satansaloser2005]

I am going to bed now. With any luck, I'll wake up in time to vote the wolf.

[Coppermirror]

I ended up analysing Pitch's vote for me first, as it'll help me compare him and Shasta later.

Pitch's progression towards voting for me

Was Pitch a paranoid innocent falling into a trap, or a wolf trying to increase his odds of victory by feigning the progression of suspicion over the Day, or frightened by me failing to rule him out completely in my first post of the Day?

Post #192, where he replies to my first post of the day.
- points out that G55 came to see him as more innocent over the course of the Day.
- says that Sally is a good Pitchwolf spotter.
- thinks that a Shastawolf might find Sally easier to persuade
- thinks that I might be a wolf trying to keep options open over who to frame

Post #195, responding to Sally
- thinks that a Shastawolf might be calmer now because of there being no Seer around.
- says he is no longer willing to cut me any slack because

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

If you're talking about yesterDay when I mentioned that I'd read lots of old games at the Downs, it's odd that that would change your mind. Because that was not the first time I'd mentioned that fact. I mentioned it on Day 2, and I also mentioned it on this game's admin thread shortly after I signed up.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror on Day 2

I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

I don't know whether you're an innocent who has been carelessly overlooking facts, or a wolf using that as a pretext for a sudden change in opinion. If it's the former and that's why you voted for me, it's very bad luck that I wasn't around to give you further info on that.

Now looking at post #203...and wow, until reading it properly now I had not realised how bad Pitch's logic was in it. Pitch, if you're an innocent and such shoddy reasoning here causes the village to lose the game (because now it can only be a tie), I'm going to be very annoyed with you once it's over.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But we think we've just found something, my precious:

But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

What. You should have been able to realise that I was talking about what the wolf would want other villagers to think I would have done.

I'll spell this out for you slowly.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

That is what I was saying. You, apparently, could not follow that without thinking "She considered the hypothetical actions of what would be sensible for her to do as a wolf! That means she's a wolf!". No. Bad Pitchwife, bad!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And then there's this:

And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

Hmm...thank goodness, your logic improved a little here. The logic above was offensively bad. But this is still not good logic. If I were a wolf, I would have had no need to have got rid of G55 in the first place.

Well, Pitch, you have certainly made it hard for me to analyse whether your vote for me was the vote of an innocent or a wolf. I was expecting that if you were a wolf you would have given reasons which seemed sensible on the face of it but have a false premise. Instead you come out with what looks to me to be a load of rubbish based upon fine wording, casting aside from consideration the reasons you didn't consider me suspicious before. What am I to make of this?

At least your second reason (which does not appear to be your main one) has some more substance. If you're a wolf, that is probably what you killed G55 hoping that the village would think. If Shasta is, that is probably what he was hoping you would think.

Edit: cross-posted twice with Shasta.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

G55:

Regarding the KitSeer incident -

Originally Posted by G55

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

And #148 -

Originally Posted by G55

My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.

Originally Posted by Cop

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

From her analysis of Pitch -

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

And regarding Pitch's vote for Kitanna over Inzil -

Originally Posted by G55

Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Originally Posted by G55

Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.

Later...

Originally Posted by G55

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?

Regarding Pitch's vote for Eomer -

Originally Posted by G55

I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

Regarding Cop -

Originally Posted by G55

Personally I highly doubt she's a wolf. The D1 vote would have been immensly daring and unexpected for a first vote ever. And in general copper's comments strike me as jen-you-wine, usually making sense and pretty sharp, only sometimes with the trace of newbishness.


And, as Pitch said, if she's a wolf and is playing her first ever game so well, she deserves to win. Though I'd rather have a goodies' victory in that case, I would not grudge a loss to her. But that's beside the point. I'm not analysing her posts because she doesn't strike me as the remaining wolf.

Conclusions:
G55 is pretty suspicious of Pitch early on, then gets to be more wishy-washy about him. However, she's much more suspicious of him than she is of Cop, whom she never seriously considers to be a wolf. The only real reason I can come up with for Copwolf to decide to kill G55 is that it seemed a big part of G55's trust in her stemmed from "Well, she's a newbie, I can't see her doing that", and it being possible that she might be swayed later - but when you combine that with the answers to "why not Sally?" (which I haven't even looked at yet), not even that appears to make much sense.

Summa summarum - It's pretty difficult to come up with a reason why killing G55 is a good move for Cop, whereas it doesn't not make sense for Pitch.

On to sally. Hopefully things will be clearer when I'm done there.

[Pitchwife]

Popping in briefly from work because this deserves an answer:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

I'm flattered, but I've never played any variant of the game before.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

OK, thanks for replying. Sorry if I was too scathing of you earlier.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Cop

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.

This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate.

First, Inzil mentioned a feeling of unease where Kitanna was concerned -

Originally Posted by Inzil

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.

Sally then appears to latch onto it, going so far as to award Kit her vote -

Originally Posted by Sally

So I suppose that leaves....

++Kit

For making me feel creeped on. Really though, it's rather random, and I'm sorry, but I don't have much to deal with right now, so it's process of elimination rather than acting on suspicion at this point. :/

Nerwen then evinces suspicion of Sally because of it -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

Then Nessa says this -

Originally Posted by Nessa

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.

Next, Nerwen begins to be suspicious of Nessa -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

And finally, I say this -

Originally Posted by Shasta

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's.

and place my vote.

Now, the reason for my vote (which was, admittedly, not well explained) is this. Around the same time, Eomer was also showing some suspicion of Sally for that, along with Nerwen -

Originally Posted by Eomer

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

So when I said "...only replacing your name with Eomer's", what I was saying is that I didn't like the way Nessa had latched onto Eomer's suspicion of Sally's latching onto Inzil's suspicion. Since what I was thinking seemed to mirror Nerwen's point so uncannily, and I was about to go to bed at the time anyway, I thought it was a decent place to put a vote.

I hope that clears things up.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate

....

I hope that clears things up.

Ah, it's okay. You've gone to a bit of trouble over nothing there, I'm afraid. I thought from the beginning that your reason for placing a vote for Nessa was all right. Some people thought your vote had no grounds, but I didn't. If you check my analysis of you from yesterDay, I said as much there.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so. (etc etc)

[Coppermirror]

Case against Pitchwolf

Day 1 - nothing, as he wasn't here.
However, Nessa voted for him, expecting him to be mod-fired. Nobody else would have voted for him. Was it a throwaway vote against an innocent, or a vote so she could say "I voted for a wolf!" later?

Day 2
- Chatted with Inzil about Nessa before the Seer-revelation.
- Voted for Kitanna.
I wasn't expecting the voting record on Day 2 to be very useful. A sensible wolf would vote Inzil in order to seem less suspicious later on. On the other hand, Pitch might have been relying upon doing the opposite of the sensible thing in order to appear less suspicious.
- Thought that Inzil was the Seer, initially. (Although he is not the only one who thought that - Sally did too.)
- Corrected Inzil about Shasta.
Yes, yesterDay I thought this was evidence of his innocence. But paranoia has set in, and I'm sure a Pitchwolf would be very happy to correct an Inzilwolf on that.

Day 3
- Did an analysis of each person. Most suspicious of Eomer and Shasta.

Day 4
- Was tetchy in response to a typo by me saying I'd do an "analysis of Pitchwolf" rather than an "analysis of a Pitchwolf"; said that people would get the wrong impression and think that my mind was already made up. Even though in the same paragraph, I said that I still suspected Shasta the most.
- Might be showing signs of feeling troubled by me backing off slightly from 100% definitely voting for Shasta.
- Used what I find spectacularly bad reasoning as his reason for voting for me.

It seemed rushed and based (a) on odd, flimsy logic, and (b) based on the premise that if I were a wolf I would gain something from G55's death, which is not correct. This makes it seem to me as if he realised I might not be as 100% set on voting for Shasta as he was the previous night, and panicked a bit.

Re the killing of G55,

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If we have a Pitchwolf, it might be that having an unknown (Sally) was preferable to having someone who was unlikely to vote Cop and considered Pitch to be a more likely wolf than me. Had Sally been killed, a Pitchwolf would have likely been facing a vote from G55 (and possibly a self-preservation one from me, as well, considering Cop's likely vote for me.)

this states the possible reasons for Pitch to kill her rather than Sally.

Case against Shastawolf

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.

Day 2
- Inzil implied incorrectly that Shasta voted for Nessa after her vote for Pitch rather than before. This could be a subtle attempt to protect Shasta.
However...he could probably expect us to remember what actually happened. Also, Pitchwife jumped in to pick him up on that. I had taken that as a sign of Pitch's innocence, but now it's down to the point of Shasta vs Pitch, I'm not sure I like using the same bit of evidence to say one is innocent and one's guilty, especially when the evidence is based on a statement from Inzilwolf.

Day 3
- Did not give his opinions of Eomer and Pitch on when I asked him to.
- Makes a case against me and only me; if he's a wolf, that was a good time in which to do so, before the final Day.
- Innocent-Eomer found him more suspicious than Pitch.

Day 4

Re the killing of G55, if we have Shastawolf, he may have thought that Sally would be more likely to trust him. His odds were fairly bad in a hypothetical toDay with G55 alive, as I think that he would have been much more likely to get a vote from Pitchwife. He would have known that unless things changed somehow, he would be very likely to get a vote from me.

So...to sum this up, I think that both a Shastawolf and a Pitchwolf would have a reason to keep Sally around. Shasta may have a better reason, but Pitch was also in a spot of bother having G55 around who suspected him more than Shasta. They would both gain from this move.

Pitch's vote for me and his reasons for it make me feel very suspicious of him. His actions are consistent with a wolf getting rattled toDay and making some bad leaps of logic as a result of it. However, he must have known that doing so would look very suspicious. He could also be a panicked, rushed innocent.

Shasta has stayed mostly calm, has spoken up a little more toDay. However, even though he suspects me a lot for reasons for reasons I find a bit shaky, he's realised that if I were a wolf I don't have anything to gain from G55 being killed. His progression of thought toDay seems more logical than Pitch's. But I find myself feeling much more suspicious of him while reading his posts than I do Pitchwife.

I would really like to hear from Sally and see if she has more any insight. If I was forced to vote right now, I would probably stick to my guns and vote for Shasta. But Pitch has been acting suspiciously toDay too.

[Coppermirror]

Shasta, would you mind giving us your current suspicions and what vote you think you may be likely to place later?

My suspicions are as outlined above, and I'm waiting to see what Sally thinks. She's familiar with both you and Pitch from previous games, and is the only person I can trust for certain out of the current village. It's probably best for the two of us non-known-innocents who have yet to cast votes to give our suspicions before we find out what she thinks. That will give more information to work with.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Shasta, would you mind giving us your current suspicions and what vote you think you may be likely to place later?

My suspicions are as outlined above, and I'm waiting to see what Sally thinks. She's familiar with both you and Pitch from previous games, and is the only person I can trust for certain out of the current village. It's probably best for the two of us non-known-innocents who have yet to cast votes to give our suspicions before we find out what she thinks. That will give more information to work with.

Well, I came into the day suspicious of you (cf. yesterday), but as of now I'm likely to vote for Pitch. Mostly for things that have happened today, such as the fact that I can't think why you, as a wolf, would kill G55 and that no one has jumped on Pitch's vote.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Well, I came into the day suspicious of you (cf. yesterday), but as of now I'm likely to vote for Pitch. Mostly for things that have happened today, such as the fact that I can't think why you, as a wolf, would kill G55 and that no one has jumped on Pitch's vote.

Hmm. That is what I was expecting you to say if you were an innocent. (Of course, it could the decision of a wily Shasta-wolf trying to look innocent...)

If Sally thinks it's more likely that Pitch is the wolf, I will vote for Pitch. If she thinks it's you, I'll vote you.

And if she doesn't show up, I'll be very unhappy.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

If Sally thinks it's more likely that Pitch is the wolf, I will vote for Pitch. If she thinks it's you, I'll vote you.

That doesn't make me feel any better about you, you know.

[Coppermirror]

Sally! You're here.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That doesn't make me feel any better about you, you know.

I was planning to defer to your knowledge and experience.

[Coppermirror]

There's about 45 minutes until the deadline, isn't there?

I really hope that Sally is here soon enough to be able to read everything and decide on an informed vote. If she isn't here in time for that, I can no longer rely on her analysis and knowledge of the players based on previous games. That does not make me a happy camper.

My planned vote from earlier is not as firm as before, given that Shasta has gone through the posts and come to the conclusions I would expect an innocent to come to. Am I really going to be in the situation of being mostly sure of my vote throughout the day right up until the last hour?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

There's about 45 minutes until the deadline, isn't there?

I really hope that Sally is here soon enough to be able to read everything and decide on an informed vote. If she isn't here in time for that, I can no longer rely on her analysis and knowledge of the players based on previous games. That does not make me a happy camper.

My planned vote from earlier is not as firm as before, given that Shasta has gone through the posts and come to the conclusions I would expect an innocent to come to. Am I really going to be in the situation of being mostly sure of my vote throughout the day right up until the last hour?

Considering you were planning to vote me... hopefully, yes.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Fifteen minutes till DL... no Sally. Hmm.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Fifteen minutes till DL... no Sally. Hmm.

Good morning, darling.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Good morning, darling.

Oh, good. She was just waiting for a dramatic entrance.

[Coppermirror]

15 minutes to go.

If Sally does not show up in the next ten minutes, I'll have no option but to vote for Pitch and hope it's him.

Edit: Cross-posted with Shasta.

[Coppermirror]

It looks as if I'll be voting Pitch, then. I am much more suspicious of him now than I was earlier on, so I don't feel too bad about that vote.

Even if Sally shows up now, unless she's got something very dramatic to say ("This thing Shasta says proves he's 100% wolf!") then I don't think I can rely on her, since she probably hasn't had time to read the thread.

So, Shasta. Looks as if I'll be trusting you.

Edit: cross-posted with Sally

[satansaloser2005]

Really? Really? I'm a known innocent, not the seer. Cop, you have to be able to form your own opinions, to make up your mind on your own. You can't just wait around for someone to show up and tell you who to vote. Especially in this situation, where I've already accused you of being opportunistic, that looks horrible.

Shasta, my pet, are you here?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

*waves*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Also I don't think it's Cop at this point, unless she killed G55 for the sole reason of making the rest of us go "She'd never do that!"

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Also I don't think it's Cop at this point, unless she killed G55 for the sole reason of making the rest of us go "She'd never do that!"

That's my reasoning. The Night kill is the only reason I haven't already voted her, but everything else screams cub to me.

[Coppermirror]

I'll set this up in another window just in case time runs out. Ready to post this if the deadlines gets too close...

++Pitchwife

[Coppermirror]

At least I can be comforted in knowing that given Sally was secretly dead against me (with very shabby reasoning, I might add!) and Pitch voted for me while I was away, it didn't really matter which way I voted at the end.

Sally: I demand that you re-read the Silmarillion in its entirety, right now.
Pitch: May you be plagued, very briefly, with a rain of toy frogs.
Shasta: So, you kept Sally alive because of my stated intention to vote for you and because she would be more likely to vote for me than for G55, right? I was correct when I said you had more to gain from it. Sigh.

I'm pleased that my long-running suspicion of Shasta turned out to be correct. But, uh, also not pleased. And I do wish I'd voted against him as planned, even though it wouldn't have done anything.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm pleased that my long-running suspicion of Shasta turned out to be correct. But, uh, also not pleased. And I do wish I'd voted against him as planned, even though it wouldn't have done anything.

Oh, but it would have. I would have instantly followed. I kid you not.

Shasta was my top suspect until I woke up and found Cop fishing about for someone to follow, at which point I became much less certain about who to go for. Although, devourer of my heart and soul, you did play a fabulous game, you ravenous foul beast. <3

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Oh, but it would have. I would have instantly followed. I kid you not.

Well, I had no way of knowing this. After all, you'd just posted here...

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Always. Also, I was apparently waiting for Coppercub to make herself look even worse in those blissful minutes where I hit the snooze button. I didn't plan that though. She did it all on her own.

So what do we do, boys? I don't want to hand the wolf the game, but Copper....I'd rather read the Silm all in one sitting than let her win at this point. I'd feel stupid.

Making it very clear that I had no option but to hope it was Pitch. Although by this point it was too late to change my voting plan anyway. (Since if you didn't show up, I could only go with Pitch anyway.)

[Inziladun]

HURRAH!!

Well done, Shastawolf!

I'm sorry I wasn't able to help more. With Kit voting for me Day 1, even if we'd gotten her on Night 2, I probably would have been the top suspect the following Day. A very worthy Seer!
I must say the false reveal was fun. It's the first time I've ever tried that, and though I was unsuccessful, at least I rallied 2 innocents to my cause.

I hate that Nessa was even shorter lived than I, but we have a new admission to the Noble Ranks of the Fenris, it seems.

[Galadriel55]

Hats off, Mr. Wolfreduin, hats off. Let me echo Menel - this is the craziest wolvery I've ever seen too.


By the way, I silently jumped on Pitchie’s vote in endgame. And sally – The Silm is not that bad you know.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Partially. I also left you alive and killed G55 so that the village would think a Pitchwolf wanted you alive to vote me, and that some of the day would be taken up in wondering why Sally was still alive. I admit I did think Sally was less likely to vote for me than G55, though.

[Meneltarmacil]

These were certainly the craziest werewolves I've ever seen.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

These were certainly the craziest werewolves I've ever seen.

Thanks for the game, Menel!

I'm gonna go to bed now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Love you too, darling. You know that Nerwen has my heart, but you are more than welcome to my claws.

[Coppermirror]

Kitanna, I'm curious. Who did you dream of on the Night the wolves killed you?