Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

I ended up analysing Pitch's vote for me first, as it'll help me compare him and Shasta later.

Pitch's progression towards voting for me

Was Pitch a paranoid innocent falling into a trap, or a wolf trying to increase his odds of victory by feigning the progression of suspicion over the Day, or frightened by me failing to rule him out completely in my first post of the Day?

Post #192, where he replies to my first post of the day.
- points out that G55 came to see him as more innocent over the course of the Day.
- says that Sally is a good Pitchwolf spotter.
- thinks that a Shastawolf might find Sally easier to persuade
- thinks that I might be a wolf trying to keep options open over who to frame

Post #195, responding to Sally
- thinks that a Shastawolf might be calmer now because of there being no Seer around.
- says he is no longer willing to cut me any slack because

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

If you're talking about yesterDay when I mentioned that I'd read lots of old games at the Downs, it's odd that that would change your mind. Because that was not the first time I'd mentioned that fact. I mentioned it on Day 2, and I also mentioned it on this game's admin thread shortly after I signed up.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror on Day 2

I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

I don't know whether you're an innocent who has been carelessly overlooking facts, or a wolf using that as a pretext for a sudden change in opinion. If it's the former and that's why you voted for me, it's very bad luck that I wasn't around to give you further info on that.

Now looking at post #203...and wow, until reading it properly now I had not realised how bad Pitch's logic was in it. Pitch, if you're an innocent and such shoddy reasoning here causes the village to lose the game (because now it can only be a tie), I'm going to be very annoyed with you once it's over.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But we think we've just found something, my precious:

But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

What. You should have been able to realise that I was talking about what the wolf would want other villagers to think I would have done.

I'll spell this out for you slowly.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

That is what I was saying. You, apparently, could not follow that without thinking "She considered the hypothetical actions of what would be sensible for her to do as a wolf! That means she's a wolf!". No. Bad Pitchwife, bad!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And then there's this:

And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

Hmm...thank goodness, your logic improved a little here. The logic above was offensively bad. But this is still not good logic. If I were a wolf, I would have had no need to have got rid of G55 in the first place.

Well, Pitch, you have certainly made it hard for me to analyse whether your vote for me was the vote of an innocent or a wolf. I was expecting that if you were a wolf you would have given reasons which seemed sensible on the face of it but have a false premise. Instead you come out with what looks to me to be a load of rubbish based upon fine wording, casting aside from consideration the reasons you didn't consider me suspicious before. What am I to make of this?

At least your second reason (which does not appear to be your main one) has some more substance. If you're a wolf, that is probably what you killed G55 hoping that the village would think. If Shasta is, that is probably what he was hoping you would think.

Edit: cross-posted twice with Shasta.