Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

I ended up analysing Pitch's vote for me first, as it'll help me compare him and Shasta later.

Pitch's progression towards voting for me

Was Pitch a paranoid innocent falling into a trap, or a wolf trying to increase his odds of victory by feigning the progression of suspicion over the Day, or frightened by me failing to rule him out completely in my first post of the Day?

Post #192, where he replies to my first post of the day.
- points out that G55 came to see him as more innocent over the course of the Day.
- says that Sally is a good Pitchwolf spotter.
- thinks that a Shastawolf might find Sally easier to persuade
- thinks that I might be a wolf trying to keep options open over who to frame

Post #195, responding to Sally
- thinks that a Shastawolf might be calmer now because of there being no Seer around.
- says he is no longer willing to cut me any slack because

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

If you're talking about yesterDay when I mentioned that I'd read lots of old games at the Downs, it's odd that that would change your mind. Because that was not the first time I'd mentioned that fact. I mentioned it on Day 2, and I also mentioned it on this game's admin thread shortly after I signed up.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror on Day 2

I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

I don't know whether you're an innocent who has been carelessly overlooking facts, or a wolf using that as a pretext for a sudden change in opinion. If it's the former and that's why you voted for me, it's very bad luck that I wasn't around to give you further info on that.

Now looking at post #203...and wow, until reading it properly now I had not realised how bad Pitch's logic was in it. Pitch, if you're an innocent and such shoddy reasoning here causes the village to lose the game (because now it can only be a tie), I'm going to be very annoyed with you once it's over.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But we think we've just found something, my precious:

But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

What. You should have been able to realise that I was talking about what the wolf would want other villagers to think I would have done.

I'll spell this out for you slowly.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

That is what I was saying. You, apparently, could not follow that without thinking "She considered the hypothetical actions of what would be sensible for her to do as a wolf! That means she's a wolf!". No. Bad Pitchwife, bad!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And then there's this:

And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

Hmm...thank goodness, your logic improved a little here. The logic above was offensively bad. But this is still not good logic. If I were a wolf, I would have had no need to have got rid of G55 in the first place.

Well, Pitch, you have certainly made it hard for me to analyse whether your vote for me was the vote of an innocent or a wolf. I was expecting that if you were a wolf you would have given reasons which seemed sensible on the face of it but have a false premise. Instead you come out with what looks to me to be a load of rubbish based upon fine wording, casting aside from consideration the reasons you didn't consider me suspicious before. What am I to make of this?

At least your second reason (which does not appear to be your main one) has some more substance. If you're a wolf, that is probably what you killed G55 hoping that the village would think. If Shasta is, that is probably what he was hoping you would think.

Edit: cross-posted twice with Shasta.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

G55:

Regarding the KitSeer incident -

Originally Posted by G55

Copper sounds genuine and innocent.

Pitch, meanwhile, looks less than so:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Or, as she was already gathering suspicion at the time, she might have voted for packmate-Pitch in order to make me look good in case she ended up lynched; except she didn't because I ain't.
That's a good way of playing a reverse psychology trick on inocents - "they wouldn't think that a wolf would be dumb enough to add (not even correct... add) to another's statement something that could incriminate him" line of thought. A kind of bluff. A wolf would not emphasize his own guiltiness, right? That must make him innocent etc.

I don't like it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
And this makes the lights flash red a lot. Kit could, eventually, name the innocent or not name him based on how she feels at the moment. But the more she prolongs the moment of revelation the more interaction and reaction we have to glean information of. On the other hand, a wolf can potentially save their hides by erasing this interaction before it has begun. When I think back to previous instances of such a situation happening it was a wolf who would ask this prompting question.

And #148 -

Originally Posted by G55

My suspicion list at the moment is a copy of mirror's, except that just switch my name around with hers. I shall take a look at Shasta, Pitch, and Eomer.

Originally Posted by Cop

Wolves: Nessa, Inziladun.

Potential wolves: Eomer, Shasta, Pitchwife.

Probably innocent: Galadriel55

Known innocents: Sally, Coppermirror (known to me, anyway)

Deceased known innocents: Nerwen, Kitanna

From her analysis of Pitch -

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Kit, if you're the true Seer and know a living innocent, name them, for Eru's sake! You'll be dead toMorrow either way, but a known innocent means one person less the wolves can get lynched, one more they'll have to use a Night-kill on, one person we know has no ulterior motives in what they say, one more chance for us to lynch a wolf. Withholding this benefit from us just because we don't trust you blindly would be dereliction of duty in a Seer.
All right, so yesterDay that post got me into a mood that really went not in Pitchie's favour. The reason for that is that I've seen almost exact copies of that post said by wolves who want to avoid any extra interaction that may get them under suspicion, or to hide the fact that they have extra knowledge behind the convenient situation that now everyone knows it.

Now, though, as I reread the thread I can see a reason for an innocent Pitch to be so passionate about it. Kit didn't say she'll wait a bit before giving the name. She said she won't give it to a village that doesn't trust her, which, from a certain point of view, could sound ridiculous.

Originally Posted by G55

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
Hm, I must say you did strike me as the most seerish-looking person in this village exactly because of the vagueness of your suspicion.

Let's not be hasty though. I seem to remember I helped to lynch a seer Kit once, I'd be loath to repeat that mistake. But I must say her "I know a living innocent but I'm not going to tell you" attitude isn't exactly trust-inspiring.
Would that not be a convenient post for a wolf to make? "I don't like it, so that's my excuse for when she turns out innocent, but I'll vote her anyway since she, after all, is more suspicious and less believable and etc [insert "reasons"]".

But on the other hand, again, Pitch could just be an innocent who believed Zil but had a genuine bad feeling about lynching Kit.

And regarding Pitch's vote for Kitanna over Inzil -

Originally Posted by G55

Can't tell much about the intentions behind the words from the arguments; they are true and most things are taken in consideration. The vote for Kit could be cast by a confused ordo (sally's there too) or a knowing wolf. But it works just a bit too well if Pitch is the last wolf who was trying to save his mate, and since he voted early it explains why no one gave the final push to the Kitwagon. Unless the remaining wolf is bold and confident enough to sacrifice Zil just in case, even when there was a good chance of saving him.

Originally Posted by G55

Anyways, I still don't have a clear picture of who might be the last wolf, but Pitch and Eomer seem to me more likely choices than Shasta.

Later...

Originally Posted by G55

Also, I don't know why exactly, but the last few posts by Pitchie make me drop my suspicions on him a bit again. Head tells me "danger" and vibes tell me "safe". Ddd Urgh! Why am I so conflicted about Pitch?

Regarding Pitch's vote for Eomer -

Originally Posted by G55

I rather like Pitch's vote. Adds to the number of notches for his innocence.

Regarding Cop -

Originally Posted by G55

Personally I highly doubt she's a wolf. The D1 vote would have been immensly daring and unexpected for a first vote ever. And in general copper's comments strike me as jen-you-wine, usually making sense and pretty sharp, only sometimes with the trace of newbishness.


And, as Pitch said, if she's a wolf and is playing her first ever game so well, she deserves to win. Though I'd rather have a goodies' victory in that case, I would not grudge a loss to her. But that's beside the point. I'm not analysing her posts because she doesn't strike me as the remaining wolf.

Conclusions:
G55 is pretty suspicious of Pitch early on, then gets to be more wishy-washy about him. However, she's much more suspicious of him than she is of Cop, whom she never seriously considers to be a wolf. The only real reason I can come up with for Copwolf to decide to kill G55 is that it seemed a big part of G55's trust in her stemmed from "Well, she's a newbie, I can't see her doing that", and it being possible that she might be swayed later - but when you combine that with the answers to "why not Sally?" (which I haven't even looked at yet), not even that appears to make much sense.

Summa summarum - It's pretty difficult to come up with a reason why killing G55 is a good move for Cop, whereas it doesn't not make sense for Pitch.

On to sally. Hopefully things will be clearer when I'm done there.

[Pitchwife]

Popping in briefly from work because this deserves an answer:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What I mean is your posts give me the impression that you're more familiar with the tricks of the trade than you should be from mere reading. They sound like you've played if not BD style werewolf, then some other variant of Werewolf or Mafia before.

I'm flattered, but I've never played any variant of the game before.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Duh, I suppose that makes sense. I remember distinctly feeling I had caught you in a big slip there, but having slept over it not so much. Anyway, can't be changed now. Proceed.

OK, thanks for replying. Sorry if I was too scathing of you earlier.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Cop

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.

This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate.

First, Inzil mentioned a feeling of unease where Kitanna was concerned -

Originally Posted by Inzil

Kit still gives some ill-defined feeling of unease, but that's all.

Sally then appears to latch onto it, going so far as to award Kit her vote -

Originally Posted by Sally

So I suppose that leaves....

++Kit

For making me feel creeped on. Really though, it's rather random, and I'm sorry, but I don't have much to deal with right now, so it's process of elimination rather than acting on suspicion at this point. :/

Nerwen then evinces suspicion of Sally because of it -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sally's vote, though, looks pretty opportunistic and her explanation sounds like hedging.

Then Nessa says this -

Originally Posted by Nessa

But I'm not sure I like the way sally ends up latching onto Inzil's random unease with Kit, admittedly upon much the same reasoning.

Next, Nerwen begins to be suspicious of Nessa -

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But hey, now that the general paranoia's getting into swing (as is right and proper), I'm not sure I like the way Nessa's latching on to my suspicion of Sally's latching on to Inzil's suspicion.... complicated, isn't it?

And finally, I say this -

Originally Posted by Shasta

Funnily enough, I was going to say relatively the same thing... only replacing your name with Eomer's.

and place my vote.

Now, the reason for my vote (which was, admittedly, not well explained) is this. Around the same time, Eomer was also showing some suspicion of Sally for that, along with Nerwen -

Originally Posted by Eomer

I do agree with Nerwen's last post. Problem is that it's a smart post for a wolf to make. Given Inzil's suspicion of Kitanna, especially the nature of that suspicion (based on 'feel') any subsequent vote for Kitanna is going to be scrutinised.

Would a wolf-Sally walk into that, though? Probably not, though maybe.

It's a really small village and the wolves could win quickly. They could be trying a bold manoeuvre. Say, wolf-Inzil spies their first victim (Kitanna made early posts) and sets it up for Sally to make the vote. Nerwen then jumps in to criticise that vote.

We could be looking at a move here. Inzil plus either Sally or Nerwen as packmates.

So when I said "...only replacing your name with Eomer's", what I was saying is that I didn't like the way Nessa had latched onto Eomer's suspicion of Sally's latching onto Inzil's suspicion. Since what I was thinking seemed to mirror Nerwen's point so uncannily, and I was about to go to bed at the time anyway, I thought it was a decent place to put a vote.

I hope that clears things up.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This is all true, but I think it's currently thought by most that I voted for Nessa day 1 for no reason. Not true. After rereading, I can see how my explanation at the time may have failed to be clear, so let me restate

....

I hope that clears things up.

Ah, it's okay. You've gone to a bit of trouble over nothing there, I'm afraid. I thought from the beginning that your reason for placing a vote for Nessa was all right. Some people thought your vote had no grounds, but I didn't. If you check my analysis of you from yesterDay, I said as much there.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

So - on Day 1, Shasta says very little, and then votes Nessa. I think he had reasonable grounds for his vote, given the circumstances, but it could have been a vote for a packmate which he wasn't expecting anyone to follow up on seriously. Galadriel55 makes a point in her analysis that Shasta's vote changes the dynamics of the Day's voting and that there was no real need for him to keep away from the Kitanna-wagon. I'm not quite so sure about this. To me it looks as if that would have been a safe vote for a wolf.

But I see that Pitchwife doesn't seem to think so. (etc etc)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Ah, it's okay. You've gone to a bit of trouble over nothing there, I'm afraid. I thought from the beginning that your reason for placing a vote for Nessa was all right. Some people thought your vote had no grounds, but I didn't. If you check my analysis of you from yesterDay, I said as much there.

Duly noted. Sorry about that.