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Old 11-28-2012, 06:15 PM   #1
Eönwë
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Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
My (random?) list notwithstanding, at the moment Steve is probably my top lynch pick, mainly because I think not voting plays to the baddies more often than not.
What? I never suggested not voting.

edit: Oh, wait, you mean that you feel like you need to vote someone.
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:08 PM   #2
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Eomer was the first one who suggested to not lynch anyone today, and a generally bad feeling from someone who has been looking fairly distant throughout the day. I mean there's been a nice prompting of talk for Day 1, and Eomer's stayed back with a sentence here and sentence there about the topics. And the vote for sally, looks safe and easy. Yes sally has only popped in with an "I'm here post," but that seems like a typical sally, who I expect will be back to add more before the day's end.

Pom's thoughts on Inzil are basically the same as mine. The positive is he's been involved with a fairly clear stance (unlike Eomer). Yet, he's been the only one reading that just has not convinced me he likes the Amandil revealing plan. Yes, many have been prodding questions and thinking of possible scenarios to flesh out the plan in full, but I've got this impression Inzil is grudgingly going along with it.

Manwe's been kind of similar to Eomer in a few critical questions here and there about the phantom's brainstorming. Yet I haven't gotten a good idea where he stands on it/how he feels about all of it.

---

The who I won't vote for today...Shasta and the phantom should be pretty self-explanatory.

With Pom, I've been quite comfortable bouncing all the ideas back and fourth with her. I suppose I should be paranoid that a wolf-Pom could still have enough guile to make me feel comfortable, but not going to worry and be paranoid about that possiblity today.

Edit: crossed with the phantom
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:11 PM   #3
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Eomer, your three theoretical guilty parties are all young lads and yet, instead of voting for one of them, you attempt to sink your noose into the neck of a wee lass whose only apparent crime is saying hello? You hooligan. A pox on you and possibly your king.

I was going to defy Phantom's plan just to be difficult, but I'm in rather high spirits today, so I'll play nice. As always, however, I must constantly remind myself that a clever Phantom isn't necessary a Phantom who has my best interests at heart. (Note that this is just as much the case outside of Werewolf. He's really quite a horrible man. )

Assuming I heard anything last Night, which I absolutely didn't, I may have reason to point a finger at Dun, Steve, and my sweet prince Boro. Not my finger, necessarily, but a finger.

Meanwhile, annoyance at typical phananigans aside, I won't have any part in a lynch that involves Phantom, Brinn, Shasta (obviously), Pom, or myself (also obviously).

Finishing dinner and then back with more specific thoughts.

EDIT: x'd since Eomer's vote, which means I have a bit of catching up to do
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:22 PM   #4
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I think I'm going to go ahead and vote -

++Eonwe

- because some of his posts earlier, after the Amandil-plan was pretty much already dealt with, he seemed to continue the discussion a bit over-much. Shaky thread, I know, but it reminded me a bit of a wolf looking for something to say to seem helpful.
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:46 PM   #5
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My list of three:
Eomer
Manwe
Nerwen
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:47 PM   #6
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Probably goes without saying, but Isildur probably ought to be around near the deadline if at all possible, even if he elects to be silent so as to mask his presence. Just being there would be helpful in the event that we're set to lynch Player X and he can prove somewhat convincingly that he's Gifted at the end.

Also, it just occurred to me we may want some sort of contingency plan should Elendil end up lynched somehow. With no dream to receive, Amandil would no longer be an absolute priority. He'd still be on the kill list I'd say, but not necessarily an immediate necessity, thus leaving Anarion free to bluff his protection. Any obvious suggestions for such a situation?
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Old 11-28-2012, 07:56 PM   #7
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Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post. Must be the E's. Let's get caught up now.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:03 PM   #8
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Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post. Must be the E's. Let's get caught up now.
Goodness, dear. I'm glad you're all right.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:11 PM   #9
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Goodness, dear. I'm glad you're all right.
Thanks much. You too, Lottie. No one injured, minimal damage, and I wasn't at fault. As good as it could have been.

So yeah, I think I'm leaning toward Eomer for what I said before. No one else looks terribly shifty at this point.

++Eomer
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:08 PM   #10
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Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident,
Oh! I hope you're alright!

I can see the points against Eomer, but I think it can probably be passed off mostly as Day One banter. If he keeps up like this past toDay, I'd raise a few eyebrows (not necessarily my own), but for now, I'll give him a pass.

Eonwe still rubs me the wrong way. Nothing really concrete, but I don't get a very innocent reading off his posts.

I'm not thrilled with Boro - he seems too keyed into popular opinion - passing off tp as 'not voting for' with the same level of surety as Shasta doesn't seem particularly innocent to me. I would think, as a wolf, you'd find both Shasta and tp untouchable due to popular opinion towards them, but as an innocent, you'd find Shasta untouchable and tp generally innocent-seeming but not beyond consideration.

Pom...good job Pom. You make me happy with your postings.

Anyway, I'd go for Eonwe and Boro at this point.

EDIT: xed since Zil's accident post.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:20 PM   #11
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Just getting home after a thankfully minor traffic accident, only to realize I confused Steve with Eomer in my last post.
Ah, that makes sense. Glad you're ok.

Also, my 3-list for toDay is:
Phantom
Nerwen
Eomer
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:01 PM   #12
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I think Isildur should try to save his power for when it's absolutely necessary (for instance, as Phantom just mentioned, the accidental near lynch of a gifted). And yes, I'm equally hopeful Isildur's able to either be around near DL or accurately predict the mood swings of the village so as to help if needed.

As counterintuitive as this sounds, I'd love for the power to never be used, though I'm sure we'll have some situation in which we'll need it. Saving it for the opportune moment is key, however. Thus, the mentions of possibly nullifying a likely useless lynch toDay? I'm vehemently opposed to such an idea. In fact, such a suggestion looks pretty fishy to me, as it gives a legitimate-sounding excuse for an idea that actually hurts the village in the long run.

More food. Less Werewolf.

EDIT: x'd with Dun
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:03 PM   #13
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Also, it just occurred to me we may want some sort of contingency plan should Elendil end up lynched somehow. With no dream to receive, Amandil would no longer be an absolute priority. He'd still be on the kill list I'd say, but not necessarily an immediate necessity, thus leaving Anarion free to bluff his protection. Any obvious suggestions for such a situation?
Well, if Elendil gets lynched toDay, there's really not much we can do. Amandil's status is reduced to known innocent (albeit with a bonus power) in that case.

One thing that would need to be sorted out, though, is the Night 1 dream. Would it be advisable to have a reveal? And could such a reveal even be trusted?
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:13 PM   #14
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A few more tidbits from reading page 1-

Morsul asking about how many KMs there are in #6 doesn't look the best. "I can't be a KM. I don't even know how many of us there are!" But then something about his pessimism in the next line seems on level. But then in #17 his "hope we have more time!" comment seems to say "I'm an Ordo!" too forcibly, and his "clever clever" might be a bit of an attempt to ingratiate himself. Has not earned a pass from me.

Nerwen- I think I'm tipping her into my free pass category at this point. Still don't have a read, but looking back I think that's more my fault than hers. Give it time.

Manwe- Also gets a Day 1 pass after rereading. The reactions on page 1 were either innocent or faked rather well (which deserves a reward naturally).

Inzil- His comment in #22 about Amandil's reveal being his decision in the end still doesn't feel right to me- almost like a KM that's worried about what such a thing could mean for him.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:19 PM   #15
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Morsul asking about how many KMs there are in #6 doesn't look the best. "I can't be a KM. I don't even know how many of us there are!"
I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:22 PM   #16
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VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer

VOTERS REMAINING
Morsul
Nerwen
Lottie
Manwe
Phantom
sally
Boro
Steve
Brin
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:27 PM   #17
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It is an hour before DL. Please remember to vote!
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:54 PM   #18
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Page 2 & 3 tidbits-

Inzil again is potentially squirmy about Amandil stepping up in #43. And there's a bit of the "defense of naivete" thing going on later when he doesn't realize that Elendil doesn't actually see the dream. I'm struggling with this one... On principle I dislike such defenses, but wow is this a good one, and well executed if it's in fact a ploy. (KMs after a full night of discussion would have to know the functioning of their primary enemy, right?) As annoying as it is I'm actually wanting to pass him through due to this. *grumble* Mind versus heart, you know...

Lottie's first post #57 is... weird. And I honestly don't know what I think of it.

Pom gets a pass due to unfamiliarity combined with participation.

Sally- I like the word "phananigans". Leaning towards free pass on those grounds...
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One thing that would need to be sorted out, though, is the Night 1 dream. Would it be advisable to have a reveal? And could such a reveal even be trusted?
Nope, couldn't really be trusted. But yeah, I figure the dreamer will feel the need to reveal if under pressure- particularly if there's evidence to point back to that would support the claim. Or heck- maybe reveal and just hope you're trusted? If there's info out there may as well try to use it, right?
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:34 PM   #19
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Votes are:

Sally - 1 (Eomer)
Inzil - 1 (Pom)
Eonwe - 1 (Shasta)
Eomer - 1 (Inzil)

---

Oi, glad you're ok Inzil at least it sounds very similar to my accident a few days ago...when I was at a stop sign and someone rear-ended me. Still dealing with the other motorists insurance was a bit of hastle, so best wishes.

If Elendil is lynched that would be downright crummy, but as far as I can tell there is nothing we can do about it. We just have to proceed with out a seer and a revealed Shastamandil on Day 2. It would torpedo the chance of getting reliable dreams, but seer's have been lynched Day 1 before, and we'll have to live with the fact of making a really poor lynch choice to hopefully make better decisions in the future.
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Old 11-28-2012, 08:50 PM   #20
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Ah, that makes sense. Glad you're ok.
Thank you, sir.

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Oi, glad you're ok Inzil at least it sounds very similar to my accident a few days ago...when I was at a stop sign and someone rear-ended me. Still dealing with the other motorists insurance was a bit of hastle, so best wishes.
Glad you were all right as well. I was actually stopped in traffic when the other vehicle hit me from behind. The damage is really barely noticeable, but just enough that it needs to be fixed. It's an inconvenience, but thankfully nothing more.

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If Elendil is lynched that would be downright crummy, but as far as I can tell there is nothing we can do about it. We just have to proceed with out a seer and a revealed Shastamandil on Day 2. It would torpedo the chance of getting reliable dreams, but seer's have been lynched Day 1 before, and we'll have to live with the fact of making a really poor lynch choice to hopefully make better decisions in the future.
The risk that's always there, to be sure. But failure to vote just helps the baddies.
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