Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lottie

If they didn't have a solid Elendil prospect, they'd likely go after a semi-known Dreamer more than a suspected potential one. I'd think he'd be more likely to make perceptible hints but lay low.

Yeah, and honestly that's a factor that I haven't quite figured out yet. In most of my KM thinking that I've tried I'm perpetually thinking Elendil is the only target, as his dreams simply must be silenced. But as an individual that has attracted far more than my share of very early (Night 1 or 2) dreams over the years, I think perhaps I'm hyper-threatened by a Seer role as a Baddie, and I can recall in the past Wolfpacks throwing me off my game a bit by not going with a Seer-first mentality.

So basically I always pay some sort of lip service to the possibility that maybe the Baddies are trying some other kill strategy, but I spend very little time actually following through on such alternatives to see how they would function. But let's try it....

So- let's assume for a moment that the Baddies believed Boro was not Elendil, but rather a dreamer. What then is their endgame? They must realize that by killing the dreamer they would not be killing Elendil (if their calculation was correct that is), thus what are they hoping for other than negating a dream? Elendil can still have another. And of course Shasta is still there waiting for them.

Okay- assume for a moment that the Baddies were correct and Boro was the dreamer and Brin is innocent. Then tonight she'll receive Ranger protection and she will dream, so they kill Shasta. Then tomorrow Brin reveals her dream, meaning we'll have 2 known innocents or 1 known inn and 1 known baddie.

With option number 1 the Ranger transfers protection to the dream target and the cycle repeats. Option 2 the baddies would take out Brin and Elendil would have to select a brand new recipient at random, which would possibly be a KM... And assuming a continuation of option 1 the dream would increasingly be more likely to be of the Ranger if he hadn't been dreamed of already, thus proceeding down the dream-chain killing would in fact kill him eventually thus freeing the KMs of his meddling.

Okay... I can maybe kinda see that strategy as an attempt to win, but wow would that have potential for danger. What if Boro and Brin are both Ordos? Then quite quickly Gifteds outnumber KMs and likely they could reveal with some amount of success, and the number of known innocents would simply be overwhelming.

I realize the odds of hitting Elendil would be lower assuming he did nothing to mark himself, but it still seems the logical choice, especially if you have some amount of confidence in your abilities to feel people out. If you hit him Night 2- bang. The game really turns.

[Morsul the Dark]

I'm wondering if Boro is Anarion. that could potentially be as bad if not worse than elendil.

If elendil died then no dreams which stinks but it Anarion died and Shasta reveals an innocent, the next dreamer of the chain, the KM can take them out forcing elendil to play russian roulette with dreamers...

[Loslote]

Alright, guys, I'd love to stick around longer, but I have class in nine hours, and work before and after that, and then more - a lot more - class after that, so I need sleeps now. I'll be online again around six and a half hours before DL. G'night!

[satansaloser2005]

Morsul doesn’t say much for a while, mostly bantery things, thanking people for clearing things up, and signing on for the three person list plan. He does note that he doesn’t think revealing Isildur so soon is a good idea (one that I strongly agree with), but otherwise he likes Phantom (and even explicitly says so in one post) and his plan.

An interesting thing to note is his reaction to me. Here is what Phantom and I said:

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm equally hesitant to believe any defense that is based off alleged naivete.

And here is Morsul’s response to our thoughts.

Originally Posted by Morsul

The two I'm most worried about are Sally mostly because Phantom made some pretty good points(even if they're wrong) and Sally readily jumped in to join him. Looks like a possible attempt at bandwagoning to me.

At no point in that post did I indicate I planned to vote for Morsul; rather, I said I was hesitant to believe “any defense” based off alleged lack of knowledge. And, no offense, Master Phantom, but those “pretty good points” were not points so much as brief observations with no conclusion made from them. It looks like a Morsul being afraid of suspicion more than me trying to bandwagon, given that Phantom moved right along and my comment was made in passing.

After that he votes for me (following Eomer's lead and creating a tie between me and Steve), defends his vote and other comments, compliments Phantom’s plan again, and then vamooses.

Making a note now that I’m having a gut feeling about ties between Steve and Morsul.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Well, starting off with yesterday's result. I can't deny I'm relieved. I honestly thought Eomer was Erendil . His vote for Sally was so random based on a post with a promise to return later. I looked at everyone's lists and saw Sally on Zil's I Thought maybe zil was the dreamer revealing Sally to Eomer... apparently not the case.

I’d actually like this explained to me, if possible. Dun didn’t vote for me. If he were revealing me to Eomer with his list post, wouldn't he have also found sense in voting for me?

Originally Posted by Morsul

I voted Sally for some suspicion but mostly that theory, which I tried to hide to protect Eomer. when the votes started coming in I hoped for an Isildur save(thankfully they must have been smarter than me.)

Clearly. But which was your reason, Morsul? Were you doing it because you thought I was guilty, because I was “bandwagoning” on you, or because you wanted to save Eomer? If it’s the third, why not just vote Steve? Oh, right. He looked fishy to you yesterDay but not vote-worthy. Why is that? If you were so concerned about saving Eomer, why go for a case that depended on Dun not following through with information instead of putting Steve further in the lead to protect Eomer?

After that, I am accused of being suspicious for suspecting him (which I officially do at this point in the thread). Brinn and Zil are given a pass for voting Eomer, but Steve and myself? Steve’s a bird and I was only voting to save myself, apparently. Once again, I must fault Morsul for not actually reading the words that are coming out of others’ fingers. Assuming he read my post, he would have seen this:

Originally Posted by me

Given Eomer's flip flop about not voting (and then voting me, of all the scandalous notions), I believe I'll have to choose him over Morsul; it's simply too risky to spread the vote so close to deadline.

I cited the same reasons as the other three Morsul mentioned in his post, yet he disregards my post and claims I simply wanted to save myself. Fair enough, I suppose, as I have no other way to save myself from a lynch, but those weren’t my reasons, and I said so. Why so sore about me suspecting you, sir?

After that there’s a bunch of talking about Boro’s possible role (most of it just being speculation and/or that thing where we thought the narrations might actually mean stuff) and some mistaken gender identity and the like.

In short, a very touchy creature, that much is clear. A vague "suspicion" from me and he seems to think I’ll show up at his house with a pitchfork. Now that the passing sarcasm has turned into actual suspicion, I wonder how he’ll react. He certainly doesn’t seem like someone who has nothing to hide though, and his desire to push for my lynch rather than Steve’s (despite that being counterproductive to the goal he says he had) doesn’t make him look any better in my eyes. The important question is: how does he appear in the eyes of the king?

[the phantom]

Well, I was hoping Shasta might be around tonight, but I can't stick around much longer. I'm a bit sick and I'm starting to feel like I could fall asleep finally so I'm going to go ahead and get some rest...

See you all tomorrow.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, I'm around. I'm just.... debating, if you will.

[satansaloser2005]

Mänwe agrees with the three person plan, speaks of it in more detail, has good points about the ranger’s role in said plan, and urges caution and discretion. He is against Isildur revealing, like me, but his points on the mechanics of the game are lessened by the little to no commentary on those playing in it. I’m hoping he’ll be around more toDay.

Wonderful Mänwe
(I now say Stanley)
Seeing what he could see
He had no real chances
To suspect the masses
And so he decided to flee

Steve mostly speaks of the game’s mechanical issues as well, though he does have bad feelings about Eomer (whom he eventually votes, for considering skipping the lunch -I mean lynch- for the Day) and me (for a general bad feeling). He barely votes in time for it to count, and it certainly didn’t seal Eomer’s fate, but I’ll give him consistency for yesterDay. Other than that, not much I can say.

The lynches! The lynches! Who will we believe?
Maybe the thoughts of articulate Steve?
The Night kills! The Night kills! Could Boro not stay?
At least for now let us not blame Eönwë

In both cases, I'm afraid I don't have a very strong pull toward guilt or innocence, at least based on their own merits. I promised our moddess a tune or seven(teen), and I always keep my promises, so there's that. Not a song so much as a rhyme, but it should do the trick, at least for now. Speaking of now, it’s sleepy time. I’d hoped to accomplish more, but at least I’ve crossed three people off my list, and I’ll hopefully have most of tomorrow to look at other people and see what I can see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

See, the thing is, the person revealed to me was an innocent Phantom, so I could definitely see Boro being a dead Elendil. Which... is sad.