Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[satansaloser2005]

Do we have any idea if Mänwe will be back before deadline? I'd hate for someone to be modfired so early in the game.

[the phantom]

Okay, general thoughts on voting alone. First, the votes-

VOTES
Eomer ++ Sally
Pom ++ Inzil
Shasta ++ Steve
Inzil ++ Eomer
Lottie ++ Steve (2)
Morsul ++ Sally (2)
Boro ++ Lottie
Brin ++ Eomer (2)
Sally ++ Eomer (3)
Phantom ++ Lottie (2)
Steve ++ Eomer (4)

DID NOT VOTE
Nerwen
Manwe

Okay, when I write down some basic assumptions regarding the vote, I find most of them are ridiculously obvious (which in itself says something perhaps). But I'll say them anyway just so you see the evolution of my thinking.

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

So, given the above three observations, we are left with three basic hypotheses-

1) If Steve is then Morsul is.
2) If Sally is then Inzil is.
3) If Inzil and/or Sally is then Lottie is.

Now obviously a single day of voting can hardly be deemed overwhelming evidence, particularly with Manwe and Nerwen not voting at all (they could both be KMs thus rendering all theories void). But still- we have to start forming theories somewhere.

I'm off to work, but I'll be rereading Day 1 and today if at all possible with those potential links in mind and see if anything jumps out and sabotages them or corroborates them....

(Should be able to check in periodically from work, and I'll be off in time to vote, no worries there.)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

If one of Steve or Sally is a KM it is unlikely that Brin, Boro, and Phantom are since they didn't seem concerned enough about their tied lead that they sided with the opposite choice. But well- all three of those are known innocents. Duh.

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

Originally Posted by the phantom

That means the only people up for consideration in the late stages of voting would be Sally and Steve then, who both voted Eomer. BUT they have the obvious excuse that they themselves were threatened. Self-preservation is perfectly logical for an innocent.

Self-preservation is equally an interest of baddies. Just saying.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Which means in the end that voting alone tells us nothing of Eomer's lynch (the actual execution which was secured late in the day), meaning that early voting is the place we are forced to look for clues...

--After Lottie elevates Steve to the top position, Morsul places Sally into a tie.

--After Eomer votes Sally he is given a vote by Inzil potentially under the assumption that Sally could justifiably help retaliate given her threatened position.

--When Lottie gives Steve his second vote there are 4 candidates with one vote each, which makes it somewhat probable that a KM has a vote, therefore it is logically time to send one innocent into the lead. We know the KM with a vote is not Eomer, so it has to be either Inzil or Sally.

It's also possible that none of the KM's were seriously in trouble; just that Eomer got a vote or two from them because he was in peril and innocent.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

[satansaloser2005]

Players I will not vote for toDay:
Shasta (known innocent/gifted)
Phantom (known innocent)
Brinn (known innocent)
Sally (innocent and also too shiny and adorable to kill)
Mänwe (he may be modfired anyway, and what he has said isn't lynch-worthy)
Nerwen (no worries about her at present, whatever that means, and she's not around, so I'd like to not risk it)


Players who remain:
Morsul
Dun
Lottie
Pom
Steve


I really, really don't like how Pom shoved aside my suspicions of Morsul, as well as her attitude toward Brinn and Lottie. As of this moment, I'd say my top suspects are Morsul, Pom, and Steve, though I'll admit that my suspicion of them as a whole would lessen slightly if one of the others were shown to be innocent. I can't get any clear read on Lottie, and Dun isn't ringing any bells, so, at least as of now, I have my top three suspects (Pom and Morsul being a higher priority than Steve at present) and will be voting accordingly. If someone has a better idea, I'll gladly listen to it.


And now I need to go make dinner. Let's hope I don't burn my hand again. Seriously, I'm a clumsy cupcake....



EDIT: x'd since my last

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

How is Brinn a known innocent? I get the argument that Boro may have been hinting at that, but it's just a possibility at this point.

.

Phantom said this:
Yeah, Night 1 I dreamed of Brin. Thus Boro was almost certainly Elendil, and frankly he had me squirming from the very start. His "I dreamed Brin innocent" bit I found both helpful and perplexing, as there was no possible way he could've known to trust me. Had I been a KM he was totally outing himself to me on the first day!

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling

EDITX'ed with Sally

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

She's a known innocent because Phantom received information about her on Night One, dear.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

So did you just happened to miss it or trying to avoid it? probably the first I know the feeling

Ah. Missed that. Sorry. That's what sometimes comes from a quick skim.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I'm looking through Pom's posts righ now but so far, one thing that's interesting is his suspicion of Brinn, granted this is before phantom confirms her innocence but for the most part it seemed most agreed she probably was innocent based on Boro's post.

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

EDIT: xed with Zil

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

And yet, that very fact speaks to the innocence of an examination of Brinn - since most people thought she was innocent, it would be fruitless for a wolf to try to raise suspicion against her - especially so early in the game, when there are so many other players who would be easier to frame.

EDIT: xed with Zil

That is an interesting thought. Didn't think of it that way. Still not an inkling of who to vote for. Sally seems pretty innocent, Pom is more suspicious but Lottie makes a good point.

Most others don't have enough to go on yet. Will look at Eonwe seemed a tad off yesterday maybe I'll see something new in yet another read.