Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[the phantom]

I'm here getting caught up. In my skim I saw enough to see that I need to ready VERY carefully.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lottie

I received a dream last Night. In the dream, it was revealed to me the identity of a wolf. (I won't say who until later on in the Day.)

Elendil is still alive.

Well, well, well... Looking at a particular individual the past couple days and their behavior (and a certain pattern I noticed in their posts which was repeated Day 1), it made me hold out just a teensy bit of hope, so I'm not going to reject your claim immediately...

This is tough...

Lottie- if you don't mind me asking, if one of Amandil's line were to battle rodents, what sort would it be?

(I realize that looks like a stupid question, but if you or someone else responds in a certain way to it, it will really help me get a bead on things.)

Originally Posted by Brin

Loslote, why would you (an unknown) receive a dream and not phantom or me (two known innocents). That just doesn't make sense.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Maybe Elendil didn't want to risk the dreamer being killed. I have no idea why me in particular.

I agree that Brin or I should've received the dream if there was one to be had, except for the kill angle... But how could Elendil possibly be that confident in Lottie?

Hmmm....

(still reading)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm going to pull the jerk move here and ask that you say what you know. Unlike Dun, there's no harm that can come from you sharing your information. We can mull over why you received the information all Day, but whether or not it's valid (and the implications of said validity) is what's important here.

Originally Posted by Lottie

And yet, watching wolves scramble when they know we know one of their own is so enlightening. I'd prefer to hold off for a while, until I can at least get a sense of how the individual players react.

Well....

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

(still reading)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?

Hmmm... Yeah, it's tough to consider the angles here, as there's really no precedent.

Okay- pretend for a moment that Lottie is telling the truth. That means Elendil is still alive and knows precisely who a dream target was. We're getting down to the wire here so it's also possible both Elendil and the other Gifted might reveal, which would narrow the potential lynch field by a LOT, particularly with the Amandil info-holder removing himself from consideration.

So- I think what that means is that Lottie may be forced to tell the truth about her dream even if she's a KM, if you follow me. For if she lies, then it would rule out both her AND her dream as a KM, thus reducing the potential KMs in the village to 2 when in fact there are 3 still alive.

Thus KM-Lottie's only hope of survival would be to sell out her packmate and hope that when the final day arrives she is given the benefit of the doubt versus whoever the other candidate is.

Does that make sense?

In other words, I'm saying even if we choose to believe Lottie we aren't necessarily agreeing that she's innocent. I just feel that it's important to keep this in perspective.

[the phantom]

And now that Nerwen and Lottie have shown their faces, Steve is the only other person who potentially could contest Inzil's claim to possess Amandil information.

Steve- post as soon as you can letting us know if you did or did not receive information from Amandil.

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And now thinking of the Amandil information in light of Lottie's claim- if she's legit then Inzil in fact knows the identity of Elendil rather than Isildur or Anarion, which really ought to give him a much different view of things if he rereads the thread. If she's telling the truth then we all ought to be envious of Inzil- as he's the only one with a true hope of pinning down what's going on...

Finally home, and the bed is calling, but I'm very interested to see what happens in the mean time.

Originally Posted by the phantom

(A deserved shout-out to the Moddess, I think. This is a fascinating game!)

Yes indeed, if rather maddening!

[the phantom]

Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

You know- I'm going to side with Lottie on this. I'm not saying I believe her necessarily, but if there's any chance this is true then I definitely want to see reactions...

Fair enough. Given ou rsize, I can certainly see the wisdom. I was mostly concerned about the effect it could have on Dun's reveal, but as long as Lottie reveals first (Dun can then reveal anytime he feels like thereafter), I'm not in a terrible rush.


EDIT: x'd with a Phantom

[satansaloser2005]

Will not lynch at present (or rather, at all):
Phantom
Brinn
Sally

Will not lynch toDay:
Dun
Lottie

Can be persuaded to vote:
Nerwen
Manwe
Steve

Would like to vote:
Morsul

[satansaloser2005]

I'm finally off to bed, and I'm uncertain when I'll return. It may be in a few hours, it may not be until after lunchtime here (eight hours or so before DL). In any case, please do not vote until I return unless you absolutely must. I've made an observation, one which I'll share once both Dun and Lottie have revealed their information. It will be worth your patience.

[Nerwen]

Just dropping in to say that I *will* have to vote fairly early, or else not at all.

[Eönwë]

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.

Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:

1. Shasta was Amandil and Zil is telling the truth. I can't see a KM making a claim when it's possible that someone else will also make such a claim, because either the KM will be lynched toDay or toMorrow, and given the numbers, I don't think that would be worth it for them.
2. Zil is a KM and is fairly certain that Shasta wasn't Amandil. Unlikely because he claimed it so early and didn't even wait to see whether others had claims and Shasta really was Amandil.
3. Irrespective of his thoughts on Shasta, Zil is worried that he'd get lynched toDay and wanted to pre-emptively put himself in a good position because he agrees with what I've said above.

So, basically, I'm quite happy trusting Zil unless something else makes me reconsider. And by happy I mean kind of worried, because I was quite certain that Zil was evil.

For Lottie, my thoughts are similar. It's either KM-on-KM or genuine, I'd think. So we might as well go along with it for now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Ok, I'm going to need to reread this all again more slowly, but here are my thoughts.

Firstly, no, I'm not claiming to have gotten an Amandil dream. This really leaves three options:[list=1][*]Shasta was Amandil and Zil is telling the truth. I can't see a KM making a claim when it's possible that someone else will also make such a claim, because either the KM will be lynched toDay or toMorrow, and given the numbers, I don't think that would be worth it for them.[*]Zil is a KM and is fairly certain that Shasta wasn't Amandil. Unlikely because he claimed it so early and didn't even wait to see whether others had claims and Shasta really was Amandil.

???And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?

[Nerwen]

Anyone around?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

???And what is all this about? Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil? And how could the KMs know if he wasn't?

Even if no one doubted it, Steve here is just laying out the only options for further mistrust of Zil now that we know no one else is going to contest his claim. Unless we think no one at all could have received the dream (because Shasta wasn't Amandil), we have to assume that Zil was the one to receive the dream and that he is, in fact, an ordo.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen. Hi there!

[the phantom]

All right- that settles it. Inzil is unchallenged. Good. I'm here only for about 45 minutes then I'm leaving, but I'll be back after a couple hours. No worries.

And Lottie is back. I do hope she's reading everything carefully, as I still could use some help figuring things out....

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Has anyone doubted Shasta was Amandil?

Sally also mentioned a scenario with the possibility of Amandil still being alive in one of her more recent posts. I don't really understand either why that's even being considered. We know Shasta was gifted. Why would he false claim as Amandil and why would the real Amandil not counter claim?

Okay, if Elendil was assuming that Anarion was Boro, I can see why he might not pick phantom or me. But why Lottie? She did seem on the more innocent side to me, but there's no way to be sure. And really, what is the bigger risk: sending a dream to a known innocent with the possibility they could die and no information is revealed? Or sending the dream to an unknown who could use that information to manipulate the village should they turn out evil?

I have to be at work for most of toDay, but I will be back for the last one to two hours before deadline.