Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:38 AM

Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:43 AM

Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

(edit: remove extra word)

satansaloser2005 · 12-02-2012, 12:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched.

*cough* Morsul. *cough*

satansaloser2005 · 12-02-2012, 12:55 AM

Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

*cough* Morsul. *cough*

Yeah, I didn't like that much, but apparently he won't be back at all today? It sucks not to have everyone around and reacting...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error?

Ha ha, yeah. I was right in the middle of removing an extra "the" from my last post when suddenly I couldn't do anything, and in other windows when I tried to open the Downs I got a funny message. Lasted about 11 minutes or so I think?

What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...

satansaloser2005 · 12-02-2012, 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

What if that happens at 10 minutes until deadline tomorrow? Heh heh...

Bite me.

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 01:18 AM

Heh- this has been an interesting end to the day, anyway.

Only a few times can I recall bombarding my brain with potential scenarios like this. But seriously, I need to shut it down for the night. Still not back to full health, so I need some shut-eye.

Remember not to do anything hasty. Inzil still has a card to play and we haven't talked to Steve at all, and Lottie has yet to reveal her card... Unfortunately now I feel like probably everyone is waiting for those things to happen so that they don't give away their leanings prematurely.

Thus I think I'm within my rights to request that everyone make a lynch list of the three people they want lynched the most. And if the remaining Gifteds are out there, could you please take a close look and let me know if I've done this correctly?

12-02-2012, 12:38 AM	#1
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen. Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.) Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died. And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie. There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate. Let's walk through this... There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed. But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day). But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her. What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

12-02-2012, 12:43 AM	#2
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Okay, so- given that no one has challenged Inzil and given my previous post that demonstrates the way a KM would be forced to give up a KM etc. I'm actually going to go ahead and recommend that no one should be voting for Inzil or Lottie today unless given the go-ahead after careful consideration by the trusted Brin and I. If you disbelieve one of them it doesn't necessarily follow that the best course of action is to vote against them. The last thing we need is people posting hasty reactionary votes that spread out enough to allow the KMs to get their candidate lynched. (edit: remove extra word) __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 12-02-2012 at 12:55 AM.

12-02-2012, 12:55 AM	#4
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	Also, whoa. Did anybody else just get a weird error? __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

12-02-2012, 01:18 AM	#7
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Heh- this has been an interesting end to the day, anyway. Only a few times can I recall bombarding my brain with potential scenarios like this. But seriously, I need to shut it down for the night. Still not back to full health, so I need some shut-eye. Remember not to do anything hasty. Inzil still has a card to play and we haven't talked to Steve at all, and Lottie has yet to reveal her card... Unfortunately now I feel like probably everyone is waiting for those things to happen so that they don't give away their leanings prematurely. Thus I think I'm within my rights to request that everyone make a lynch list of the three people they want lynched the most. And if the remaining Gifteds are out there, could you please take a close look and let me know if I've done this correctly? __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.