Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Here's a thought throwing it out there. should we assume Lottie is innocent.

That leaves:
Morsul
Manwe
Steve

and we hope Erendil is still alive: a plan would be lynch me, that'll confirm one innocent have erendil dream one of the other two that would show one of them evil or innocent thus proving the other evil. That'd leave you one KM which would then be process of elimination either Lottie or the surviving member)unless of course dreamed innocent.

Several issues with this, as Lottie noted. A dead innocent does not help the village at this point. It would make more sense to leave you be and for Elendil to choose you as the dream-target.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Thinking back at past Days, I considered that perhaps Nerwen's suspicion of Eonwe might make them less likely to be packmates. But that she decided to vote Pom over him at a time when Eonwe was in the running to get lynched is suspicious. Eonwe adding her in his list of lynch candidates also indicates the possible baddies suspecting each, but not enough to get them lynched tactic.

Looking over things, I'm leaning toward Steve being the best choice for toDay. He seems to have been doing just enough to appear active, while actually staying largely on the sidelines and avoiding controversy.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Looking over things, I'm leaning toward Steve being the best choice for toDay. He seems to have been doing just enough to appear active, while actually staying largely on the sidelines and avoiding controversy.

Indeed. When thinking about potential packs, Steve is involved in both of my more probable packs - either Steve and Morsul or Steve and Manwe. The pack without him I find far less probable (Morsul and Manwe). I'd prefer to lynch Steve toDay, and decide between Morsul and Manwe toMorrow (Elendil, help us out on that one?).

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by the phantom

MANWE

So, is he genuinely concerned, or is he a worried KM? I mean think- if Isildur reveals Day 1 what are the KMs going to do about it? If they go to kill him then they're letting Elendil and his dreamer & dream target have another night alive and allowing the next dream to take place, and they won't be killing the more dangerous Anarion either. I'm thinking a KM might be unnerved by such an open game.

I think you could call it concern, like your reply to my saying you wanted a transparent game- I was just raising another angle to consider of the idea.

Originally Posted by the phantom

He does not vote Day 1, and everyone knows how a hate submarines. It would've been a golden opportunity to give us some info.

Day 2 he starts right off incriminating Morsul, and also paints Sally as innocent.

Later in the day he actually compares Steve and Morsul-

In the end he indeed votes for Morsul.

On Day 3 he oddly brings up my Day 1 vote for Lottie a couple times (this is before Lottie revealed with her dream).

I'd like to address all these points together as I feel they're somewhat related to my train of thinking throughout the game and why ive voted for who i have. It was the first time I haven't voted in a game and I was late to the deadline. Had I arrived I would have said Morsul- my list of three the other day had evolved from my initial interest in all the following; morsul, pom, sally, steve and indirectly lottie and inzil. That's why I voted for him with steve a close second.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Thanking Lottie for her dream I think strikes me as premature. How did he know she had dreamed? How did he know she wasn't a KM? How did he know Nerwen would be guilty?I find that a bit suspicious.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Unless I missed something, Manwe and Nerwen never really share opinions of one another. Which tells us absolutely nothing.

That's why I said revelation I didn't see her as one as I was so focused on the morsul, steve, sally, pom mix.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for Morsul– we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is, but I don't think it's quite got to that point.

Originally Posted by Brin

If Morsul is innocent, Nerwen could've been building up suspicion and perhaps was using the "we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is" comment to pave the way for an easy lynch further down the road.

Yeah- I sort of wondered about that when she made that comment.

Anyway, back now. Doing a readthrough on the other two...

[Inziladun]

I'm still trying to work out if Morsul's "lynch me" plan was the work of a misguided ordo or the result of brazen wolvery. Wouldn't it be funny if he and Lottie were the last two KMs, given a pass for throwing themselves under the bus?

[the phantom]

MORSUL

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 1

We have 3King's Men right?

Of course I remember this- it annoyed me a bit on Day 1 and made me consider voting for him.

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 1

I think it's worth a shot. and if everyone posted a list it would hide the recipient. Clever, Clever.

Over complimentary?

At the end of Day 1 he declares Nerwen suspicious and Steve fishy and votes for Sally for attempting to bandwagon him.

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 1

basically I can only rule out who Not to vote for at this point.

Aw heck it's day one and frankly I have to go with my gut...

An interesting way of phrasing it. If he was in fact trying to create packmate distance then showing suspicion then not voting them is logical.

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

I can't deny I'm relieved. I honestly thought Eomer was Erendil . His vote for Sally was so random based on a post with a promise to return later. I looked at everyone's lists and saw Sally on Zil's I Thought maybe zil was the dreamer revealing Sally to Eomer

Now this looks somewhat genuine. He also does not provide insight into why Boro was killed, which either means he didn't know (which means innocent) or he didn't want to get caught with too good an idea (which means guilty).

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

if Shasta dreamed Boro and boro was killed that means the KM anticipated Elendil's dream which in turn means they's is clever and I don't like clever wolves/KM they're tricky.

I thought this was a weird statement at the time- complimenting the KMs like that. Is he patting himself on the back?

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

I'm in a position I'm all too familiar with lots of people suspect me, I'm innocent , but the more I defend it the more suspicious I am. The good old Morsul logic works for me every time. I think that may be the real reason I was spared a few votes yesterday I tend to be an easy lynch down the road at a more critical time.

Is this a useful observation (particularly in light of Nerwen's set-up) or is he attempting to insulate himself?

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

With Phantom clearly innocent I'm wondering if he saw something we didn't... Phantom really only mentions Lottie once saying her post #57 is odd. Then goes and votes her. May have just been a day 1 throw away vote but otherwise I can't see a reason.

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

I'm not saying they're suspicious. I'm wondering what they saw that was suspicious enough for a vote. Lottie looks fine to me so far but I'm wondering if I'm missing something they saw is my point.

So, is he trying to fan suspicion of Lottie, or is he in a roundabout way defending?

A little later he fans suspicion of Nerwen, talking about how her play was a bit too clean, which is perfectly true.

Later he actually seems to find Sally more innocent because her suspicions of him seem fine. Then he posts again saying she's even more innocent after she really goes after him. Is he trying to pacify her?

Then he starts taking a more serious look at Pom. He doesn't like her because she tossed suspicion of himself aside too easily (*head scratch*) and because she suspected Brin before she became proven.

Then in explaining his suspicion further-

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 2

I've been trying to figure out if Pom Is indeed evil what would defending me get him?

I think it's a reach But here goes: Pom defends me votes Sally I being inclined to help him because of his defense vote Sally try to get others to do the same. Sally lynched innocent. Day three I get set up as a fall guy lynched innocent finally day four Pom lynched. that would give potentially 4 more deaths before a KM is gone.

Hmm. Logically sound, I suppose.

And in the end he votes for Pom based on this. (His vote is the first for Pom.)

This is how Morsul enters Day 3-

Originally Posted by Morsul, Day 3

So Pom was Ordo which means to me anyway Sally is evil Nerwen is evil and probably ZIl. Nerwen and Sally keep suspecting me but never vote me. I mentioned I'm an easy lynch and useful at a critical moment for the KM well we could have worst case scenario two bad lynches till game's end so frankly now's my final stand as an innocent I have to go with what I think what I'm sure of.

Then he votes for Sally.

Now this is quite well done. His comment about being a lynch target is true and he was progressing naturally from his stance the previous day, but perhaps it's just a little too perfect?

He says Nerwen is certainly evil, which is true, but of course he votes for the one that isn't evil. And just to theorize, if Lottie is a KM and received her Nerwen dream in the middle of the night, they would've had ample time to hatch a grand plan in which she throws Nerwen under the bus, and knowing what was coming later Morsul had to be sure and vote nice and early. That way if people questioned Lottie and the lynch didn't go towards Nerwen that would set up Sally as the alternate candidate?

Not well conceived exactly, but just a crazy idea.

But then of course he seems to accept Lottie fairly quickly, thus his Sally vote quickly becomes worthless.

He then likes the idea about Elendil sending a dream about Lottie rather than to her. If she's his partner that seems to sabotage things.

Then he asks if he can retract his vote. (It seems he regretted his Sally vote?)

Then coming in today he seems dead set on tossing out Lottie as an innocent, and suggests we just go ahead and lynch him, which is just a bit insane but I get how his numbers game works. But frankly the odds are the same no matter what we do so we may as well attempt to lynch a KM rather than have an innocent throw himself under the bus.

He believes that Manwe and Eonwe are the KMs.

CONCLUSION:

His guilt seems to rely on how cut-throat the KMs were playing things. Nerwen looks prepared to throw him under the bus, Manwe attempts to start a lynch his way, and he's maintained suspicion of Nerwen and Steve through most of the game.

So, if the KMs are trying to be somewhat careful then Morsul seems a poor statistical lynch choice as he has too many negative ties to potential packmates.

[the phantom]

LOTTIE

Lottie voices suspicion of Steve fairly early on Day 1. Later on she's a bit suspicious of Boro as well. In the end she goes with the gut and gives Steve his second vote, putting him in the lead.

Originally Posted by Lottie, Day 2

Though, if he were Elendil, his oh-so-famous post makes a whole 'nother level of sense: Elendil specifically telling his Dreamer how to tell him the role of the Dreamed.

Is she hoping he was Elendil, and/or trying to point out why it was logical for the KMs to kill him? Pride, in other words- insisting that her kill choice was a good one.

Originally Posted by Lottie, Day 2

He put himself out there a bit too much, hinted a bit too strongly, and the KMs picked up on it.

Once again, explaining her kill?

Later on Day 2 she lists Morsul, Steve, and Inzil on her suspect list. She then thinks Sally seems innocent.

A bit later she states that Morsul doesn't look so good to her but she's worried it wouldn't tell us much if he's innocent. She then places Steve and Pom as the best candidates and says she prefers Steve.

Towards the end she suspects that if Sally is a KM so is Inzil, and she votes for Sally. A couple possibilities here- either she's innocent and following one of the Provens just in case they're onto something, or she's a KM and sees that the lynch will be innocent either way and so sides with a Proven on a bandwagon less likely to win out.

Then of course comes Day 3 where she reveals an accurate dream. Could she have done anything different in her situation?

But her instinct for withholding the name seems to be a good one. It was either fine planning or she's innocent. And she also seems genuinely cheerful about lynching a KM and what our population set up will be the next day.

CONCLUSION:

After all the read-throughs the Lottie-Steve pairing seems increasingly unlikely unless they are playing rather oddly. Morsul-Lottie is still possible but slightly less likely after the read-through.

Her behavior was quite innocent yesterday, meaning either she had lots of time to plan out a grand end-game, or that she's genuine. In light of the successful delivery I figure we may as well write her down as "Innocent" and hope we're not wrong. It's tough to see a scenario under which she gets lynched.

[Eönwë]

So, since I didn't get a dream and no-one else seems to have claimed one, I think it's clear that we're left with only Elendil if Lottie was telling the truth (though even if that is the case, it says nothing of her innocence).

Looks like I'm going to get a chance to do a Nerwen-post after all, though obviously she's not the focus this time.

[the phantom]

Just a brief thought based on my read-throughs-

With the Lottie-Steve pairing not so likely and the Morsul-Manwe pairing also not a great likelihood, Steve seems the best lynch option operating on an assumption of Lottie's innocence, as he could be paired with either of the two others. Manwe would be the lynch pick to make if Morsul is felt to be innocent.

So yes, I very much imagine that it's going to come down to those two. So...

Given that I've gone over all of your posts with a fine-tooth comb and found zilch in the way of Elendil hints, that leaves open the possibility that one of you is Anarion thus you can prove that Lottie is lying. It was intelligent of Inzil to hide his information yesterday, as if it was of Sally then he would be able to help out Anarion in a reveal by finally admitting that Sally was his info.

So, can either of you confirm that you are Anarion thus Lottie is lying?

[Eönwë]

Sorry, I got taken away by RL stuff.


Nerwen's interactions

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually that would be heaps of time– better than any village in WW history– but I think your calculations are a little out, there, Morsul.

Not much really. Could be keeping packmate Morsul in-line, but could just as well be trying to be useful.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, and there has been something a bit "off" about Morsul's posting since the start– at least, I was thinking about voting him even before I logged on again– only, I'm not sure about the wisdom of bringing another candidate into play *now*.

Here she starts making it sound as if Morsul is a genuine lynch-candidate for her, and the only thing stopping is that there are already too many. But then the next Day she softens it significantly:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Honestly, I'm not sure it need be intentional even if wolvish– I mean, I think Morsul tends to play in a kind of bubble regardless of role. Sometimes it gets him lynched, sometimes it works in his favour.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It *is* his style. Seriously, he always plays like this regardless of role, thats the trouble.

So basically, what it looks like is that she's been building up a low-profile suspicion of Morsul. It could really go either way. Either she was intending to keep this low-profile back-and-forth approach with suspicions of varying intensity or she was was building him up as a future safe lynch-target that she'd been sowing the seeds of doubt against throughout the game.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As for Morsul– we may have to lynch him eventually just to see what he is, but I don't think it's quite got to that point.

This pretty much sums up what I've just been saying. It looks like she's been keeping him as an indefinite "we'll lynch him but not yet" (but to use at a time of need or to distance herself?).

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I had a very limited time to make up my mind in, Brinn– and nobody looked *really* suspicious to me, except for Morsul, who always does.

And she's at it again...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh, I agree it all works in theory– but participation hasn't been great in recent games, and I can all too clearly imagine a scenario where half the village does those "no time to read the thread, must fly" posts.

Yes– but we do have a Ranger. That's what they're for, after all.

So the first one seems all right, if a tad ironic (she later seems to epitomise the lack of time style of posting), but the second one seems a bit... strange. Almost mocking. To put it more plainly, it seems the way I'd imagine one wolf to talk to another about gifteds.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, here's my list: Morsul, Lottie, Brin.

Now, do I actually vote on Day One, or would that cause the universe to implode? Decisions, decisions...

Random lists don't mean much in terms of suspicion unless stated otherwise, but this does put distance between herself and Morsul and Lottie, so this could potentially speak for either (or both) of them being part of her pack.


Then there's the Lottie-dream:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I know– but what would a Wolflote have to gain by making up a story like that, though? When she could just fake-reveal?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ah well, that settles the Lottie question as far as I'm concerned–

++Lottie

I suppose I should never have said I might not be around to vote.

Please do not lynch me. It would be very bad. Good night.

Interesting how she's defending Lottie and making her seem unwolflike at first. Could just be coincidence, but it's also very possible that she's trying to set it up so that Lottie comes out of her dream proclamation looking especially innocent.



It seems unlikely to me that Nerwen would treat her two fellows in the same way, so I'd assume that she kept a low profile with one (i.e. Manwe) and a high-profile with the other (i.e. Lottie or Morsul). I'm currently leaning towards Manwe and Lottie, with Morsul being the fall-back lynch.

This fits quite well with her dislike (#283 and #313) of phantom's list.

Originally Posted by the phantom

You will not vote for
Phantom
Shasta
Brin

You ought not vote for
Morsul
Steve
Pom

I'd rather you not vote for
Manwe
Nerwen

On trial
Sally
Lottie
Inzil

Next, I think I need to look at how the others deal with her (and then just at them in general).