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#1 | ||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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#2 |
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Indeed. When thinking about potential packs, Steve is involved in both of my more probable packs - either Steve and Morsul or Steve and Manwe. The pack without him I find far less probable (Morsul and Manwe). I'd prefer to lynch Steve toDay, and decide between Morsul and Manwe toMorrow (Elendil, help us out on that one?).
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#3 | |||
Shade of Carn Dűm
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
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#4 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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Anyway, back now. Doing a readthrough on the other two...
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#5 |
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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I'm still trying to work out if Morsul's "lynch me" plan was the work of a misguided ordo or the result of brazen wolvery. Wouldn't it be funny if he and Lottie were the last two KMs, given a pass for throwing themselves under the bus?
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#6 | ||||||||||
Beloved Shadow
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MORSUL
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At the end of Day 1 he declares Nerwen suspicious and Steve fishy and votes for Sally for attempting to bandwagon him. Quote:
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A little later he fans suspicion of Nerwen, talking about how her play was a bit too clean, which is perfectly true. Later he actually seems to find Sally more innocent because her suspicions of him seem fine. Then he posts again saying she's even more innocent after she really goes after him. Is he trying to pacify her? Then he starts taking a more serious look at Pom. He doesn't like her because she tossed suspicion of himself aside too easily (*head scratch*) and because she suspected Brin before she became proven. Then in explaining his suspicion further- Quote:
And in the end he votes for Pom based on this. (His vote is the first for Pom.) This is how Morsul enters Day 3- Quote:
Now this is quite well done. His comment about being a lynch target is true and he was progressing naturally from his stance the previous day, but perhaps it's just a little too perfect? He says Nerwen is certainly evil, which is true, but of course he votes for the one that isn't evil. And just to theorize, if Lottie is a KM and received her Nerwen dream in the middle of the night, they would've had ample time to hatch a grand plan in which she throws Nerwen under the bus, and knowing what was coming later Morsul had to be sure and vote nice and early. That way if people questioned Lottie and the lynch didn't go towards Nerwen that would set up Sally as the alternate candidate? Not well conceived exactly, but just a crazy idea. But then of course he seems to accept Lottie fairly quickly, thus his Sally vote quickly becomes worthless. He then likes the idea about Elendil sending a dream about Lottie rather than to her. If she's his partner that seems to sabotage things. Then he asks if he can retract his vote. (It seems he regretted his Sally vote?) Then coming in today he seems dead set on tossing out Lottie as an innocent, and suggests we just go ahead and lynch him, which is just a bit insane but I get how his numbers game works. But frankly the odds are the same no matter what we do so we may as well attempt to lynch a KM rather than have an innocent throw himself under the bus. He believes that Manwe and Eonwe are the KMs. CONCLUSION: His guilt seems to rely on how cut-throat the KMs were playing things. Nerwen looks prepared to throw him under the bus, Manwe attempts to start a lynch his way, and he's maintained suspicion of Nerwen and Steve through most of the game. So, if the KMs are trying to be somewhat careful then Morsul seems a poor statistical lynch choice as he has too many negative ties to potential packmates.
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#7 | ||
Beloved Shadow
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LOTTIE
Lottie voices suspicion of Steve fairly early on Day 1. Later on she's a bit suspicious of Boro as well. In the end she goes with the gut and gives Steve his second vote, putting him in the lead. Quote:
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Later on Day 2 she lists Morsul, Steve, and Inzil on her suspect list. She then thinks Sally seems innocent. A bit later she states that Morsul doesn't look so good to her but she's worried it wouldn't tell us much if he's innocent. She then places Steve and Pom as the best candidates and says she prefers Steve. Towards the end she suspects that if Sally is a KM so is Inzil, and she votes for Sally. A couple possibilities here- either she's innocent and following one of the Provens just in case they're onto something, or she's a KM and sees that the lynch will be innocent either way and so sides with a Proven on a bandwagon less likely to win out. Then of course comes Day 3 where she reveals an accurate dream. Could she have done anything different in her situation? But her instinct for withholding the name seems to be a good one. It was either fine planning or she's innocent. And she also seems genuinely cheerful about lynching a KM and what our population set up will be the next day. CONCLUSION: After all the read-throughs the Lottie-Steve pairing seems increasingly unlikely unless they are playing rather oddly. Morsul-Lottie is still possible but slightly less likely after the read-through. Her behavior was quite innocent yesterday, meaning either she had lots of time to plan out a grand end-game, or that she's genuine. In light of the successful delivery I figure we may as well write her down as "Innocent" and hope we're not wrong. It's tough to see a scenario under which she gets lynched.
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#8 |
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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So, since I didn't get a dream and no-one else seems to have claimed one, I think it's clear that we're left with only Elendil if Lottie was telling the truth (though even if that is the case, it says nothing of her innocence).
Looks like I'm going to get a chance to do a Nerwen-post after all, though obviously she's not the focus this time.
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#9 |
Beloved Shadow
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Just a brief thought based on my read-throughs-
With the Lottie-Steve pairing not so likely and the Morsul-Manwe pairing also not a great likelihood, Steve seems the best lynch option operating on an assumption of Lottie's innocence, as he could be paired with either of the two others. Manwe would be the lynch pick to make if Morsul is felt to be innocent. So yes, I very much imagine that it's going to come down to those two. So... Given that I've gone over all of your posts with a fine-tooth comb and found zilch in the way of Elendil hints, that leaves open the possibility that one of you is Anarion thus you can prove that Lottie is lying. It was intelligent of Inzil to hide his information yesterday, as if it was of Sally then he would be able to help out Anarion in a reveal by finally admitting that Sally was his info. So, can either of you confirm that you are Anarion thus Lottie is lying?
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#10 | |||||||||||||||||
Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Sorry, I got taken away by RL stuff.
Nerwen's interactions Quote:
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It seems unlikely to me that Nerwen would treat her two fellows in the same way, so I'd assume that she kept a low profile with one (i.e. Manwe) and a high-profile with the other (i.e. Lottie or Morsul). I'm currently leaning towards Manwe and Lottie, with Morsul being the fall-back lynch. This fits quite well with her dislike (#283 and #313) of phantom's list. Quote:
Next, I think I need to look at how the others deal with her (and then just at them in general).
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