Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Ghostly voice: It's NerwEn!

*goes back to being dead*

For a second I could have sworn that I wasn't the only ghost currently in Christmas Town!

Ahem, it must have been my imagination.

My current plan is to examine possible wolf pack configurations. During this I will from time to time be considering each person's reaction to people I know to be innocent (Boro, Nerwen, and myself) and to people I consider very likely to be innocent (G55) with a view to seeing whether they and Legate might be working together to lay suspicions.

...And in the end I only managed to go over two people, and it's not as if I looked in depth at every post of the first possibility. This is so time consuming.

G55 and Legate

I still need to consider this one . This could work if...it was all a plan to have G55 gain our trust and slowly pick us off. A very elaborate plan. Since Legate did turn out to be a wolf, I don't think it's possible for G55 to be the Cobbler, because something like this would need to be planned via private communication and also because it would be plain ridiculous for a Cobbler to do this.

No. No way. If this is true then the wolves deserve to win. I just don't believe it. If anyone has an analysis they think shows otherwise, I'll definitely listen, but right now the provisional conclusion is that G55 is innocent. Would a wolves really choose to halve their pack on Day 2? No.

Eonwe and Legate

Page 1, Day 1 - No interaction or mentions of each other. Legate posts but Eonwe isn't there yet.

Page 2, Day 1 - Eonwe arrives, says his time has been limited. Legate cross posts and in list of current notes on everyone says "Steve - strangely absent."

Eonwe gives a list of current suspicions.
Thinks G55 looks good so far.
Mixed views about me.
Not sure what to make of Nerwen due to lack of posting.
Thinks Boro doesn't feel like the innocent Boro he's used to.
Thinks Legate asked useful questions but those don't speak for his innocence or guilt, and considers Cobblerhood.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

People I'd rather not for just yet:
Legate
Morsul
G55

People I need to see more of before I begin to make any sort of judgement:
Shasta
Sally
Nerwen

Page 3, Day 1 - Eonwe says he doesn't suspect me of Cobblerhood, but that doesn't mean he thinks I'm innocent. Says of Legate that "I'm not really finding him that innocent now that I look over him" and is not inclined to vote for him that Day because he's generating discussion.

Eonwe considers the possibility of a Boro-Legate pack but isn't sure they'd be that obvious when there are only two of them.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Other than those, I could potentially see myself going for Lommy, McC or Sally. Coppermirror or Nerwen could be possibilities, but only if the other option is someone I haven't mentioned so far.

edit: I completely forgot about Shasta, which is a bit worrying, but then, his most recent post seems quite good, so I probably won't be voting him toDay.

He then votes Boro, that being the second vote out of four for him. Shasta comments that it looks as if that vote was carefully set up over the course of the Day, and Eonwe replies that it was more that he'd prefer voting for Boro than Sally or Zil, both of whom were on two votes at the time he voted.

Page 3, Day 2 - Eonwe talks to McCaber about a few things.

Page 4, Day 2 - Eonwe banters with some people. He then goes through a summary of people's suspicions in the game so far. It's useful, so I'll link it: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...&postcount=144

I find his wording summarising Legate's post #65 interesting. "VERY light suspicion of CM".

Eonwe then abstains on voting for the Day and leaves.

Legate then shows up with some views. Of Eonwe he says...

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

From new things toDay I am feeling somewhat uncertain about Steve (his replies to McCab), though that's more just the air of it, nothing specific.

In post #157 I consider and provisionally discard the possibility of a Legate-Eonwe pack.

Page 5, Day 2 - Legate goes through his suspicions. He says "I was hoping for more from Steve, and I still hope he will show up." and says similar things about a few others. Then Legate goes through another suspicions list.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Steve - I would just hope to see him around more. On re-read, I don't seem to recall what seemed so strange to me about his posting earlier. Actually, his posts have been toDay largely only short things, some lists etc. with not much content altogether. Some people said his vote yesterDay could have been a Wolf jumping on a bandwagon, though again, he could have jumped on either of the existing ones by the time he voted, unless he didn't care and/or there was a Wolf being voted for (though since there are only two Wolves, they would not have been both if Steve was one as well). All in all, needs more input, that's about it. But watching.

And that's the last mention of Eonwe before Legate left.

I doubt that those two were in a pack together, but I can't rule it out. The backtracking from Legate in the last post mentioning Eonwe confuses me a bit. It might be that Legate was initially trying to lay bait for later suspicions of Eonwe (with his talk about an air of uncertainty about him) but then thought better of it for the time being.

It seems a bit odd that Eonwe decided to not vote for Legate partially on the basis of the latter's reasonable activity level, and Eonwe did vote for Boro-innocent. On the other hand, Eonwe has been reasonably suspicious of Legate throughout, and he wasn't the only one, so it's not as if he was being suspicious towards a totally unlikely person.

I do still think that given the Day 1 voting, it would be strange for there to be an Eonwe-Legate pack.

And just now, I wonder if I've found a reason for why Legate took back his vague suspicion of Eonwe later in the Day. The post after Legate gave those suspicions was the one where I decided that an Eonwe-Legate pack would be unlikely. Thinlomien later said that was fair reasoning. Possibly, Legate wanted to back away from laying the groundwork for an Eonwe lynch right then. Might be true, might not. I'm a bit too sleepy to be able to look at this clearly right now so I'm not sure.

But before I go, while looking at one of Legate's last bunch of posts, this stood out to me a bit:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lommy - her thought processes seem similar to mine Now I wonder if I should be worried, but I can't imagine her mentioning that being e.g. a trick aimed only at me to lull me into trusting her or something similarly unlikely. So only in case you found my dead body toMorrow, then perhaps she should be looked at. On a bit more serious note, I really don't see anything suspicious about her so far, she seems to try to make an effort and not really sounding in any way false or anything.

That bit at the start there looks as if it could be a wolf trying to contact someone he thinks is the Cobbler.

And now I'm barely awake and have got to get some sleep. Since I didn't get very far in that analysis, does anyone else want to pick somebody or two and do some analysis of the possibility of them being in a pack with Legate? I'll try to do more when I wake up in the morning, anyway, it's just that at this rate I won't be able to get it done for everyone by the end of the Day.

[Inziladun]

Well, it's nice to see a gamble pay off with a wolf-lynch. It's a little disquieting though that G55 is still with us. Would she not have been a tempting target as a potential Seer? Still, maybe the Ranger was a deterrent.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I think that at this stage of the game, the wolf isn't in a position where they can afford to kill people off just in order to cause disorder or remove people whom others might not suspect much. I can only assume that they killed Nerwen because they thought she was the Seer. It makes no sense for them to be trying to target anyone else when the wolf is in such a weak position.

I would agree that there should have been a good reason. I don't at the moment recall her strongly suspecting anyone, or doing anything particularly Seerish. She didn't vote Day 1, and her late vote for Legate yesterDay was a non-factor in his lynch.

[Thinlómien]

Well...?!?

I have to say I'm humbled. When I was reading through yesterDay (without checking first what happened) I was so sure the village is going to fail big time. I didn't trust Galadriel one bit and I wasn't really convinced about Legate's guilt. I'm glad you guys were right though. Anyway, I remain unconvinced by Galadriel. I wouldn't be surprised at all if she was the cobbler (who failed big time yesterDay), but as it's pretty obvious she's not a wolf I think we can leave her be.

I'm not surprised about Nerwen's death either. YesterDay when I was trying to think who might have been attacked on Night2, I was pretty sure it was Nerwen, just because she was paying attention to Coppermirror's seer-flushing comments and might have looked seerish with a knee-jerk logic.

What now then? I'd like to have a look at what Legate said about everyone and what they said about him, but I'm not sure I have time (I have a bunch of 'downers here! <3) Just off the top of my head I'm the most suspicious of Eönwë and Inzil right now, and McCaber seems possibly the most innocent. I'll have another look at yesterDay's posting and reply some quotes from yesterDay and toDay once I have a bit more time.

[Thinlómien]

Just quickly looking at this without the context:

Morsul-->McCaber
Lommie-->Gal
Legate-->Gal (2)
Gal-->Legate
Dun-->Legate (2)
McCaber-->Legate (3)
Sally-->Legate (4)
Cop-->Legate (5)
Shasta-->Gal (3)
Nerwen-->Legate (6)

Inziladun actually looks pretty good so I might take back what I said about him just a minute ago (or then he's really sneaky). McCaber looks equally good.

Sally and Cop were basically beating a dead horse, so their votes prove nothing. Morsul's vote is equally informative.

Shasta baffles me, especially as he said (if I recall correctly) something like "woops, I didn't realise Legate already had so many votes". That's so incriminating that it shouldn't be incriminating but maybe it is because it's Shasta whom I can see more likely doing double-bluffing than bluffing.

[Coppermirror]

I get back late and the game is over and I basically don't need to cast my vote any more...

But oh well, I will anyway! ++Inzil

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phooey. The mod ruins your big reveal, so you get to ruin mine? I see how it works.

Anyway, Lommy had it correct. Nerwen was killed because the wolves failed to kill her on the previous Night. I didn't protect anyone last Night on purpose - I had realized that G55 was probably the Seer, but was pretty certain the wolves would go after Nerwen again; if I protected G55 and the wolves killed Nerwen as I suspected they would, I wouldn't be able to protect her toNight. G55 revealing Inzilawolf wraps things up nicely, though.

++Inzil

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Phooey. The mod ruins your big reveal, so you get to ruin mine? I see how it works.

I'm sorry? Please?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Anyway, Lommy had it correct. Nerwen was killed because the wolves failed to kill her on the previous Night. I didn't protect anyone last Night on purpose - I had realized that G55 was probably the Seer, but was pretty certain the wolves would go after Nerwen again; if I protected G55 and the wolves killed Nerwen as I suspected they would, I wouldn't be able to protect her toNight. G55 revealing Inzilawolf wraps things up nicely, though.

*headdesk* So basically all my nervewracking Day2 scheming was for nothing. *goes to beat head on the wall a couple times*

I guess I should have realized, but I already fake-revealed/hinted as so many roles that it wouldn't have made a difference at that point. But I should never have underestimated your skills with this game. That's some first-class Ranger scheming, if I may be a judge in such matters.

[Coppermirror]

I shall sprinkle incense upon the poor of Christmastown, in celebration of these tidings. Indeed, we have changed the path of the future and erased our Doom.

Tiny Tim McCaber, it is unfortunate that you who were once so full of cheer became weary. Ignorance and Want do indeed lead you humans astray...

But Frosty the Snowman! You, who has a heart of snow, chose to betray us all, along with Santa Claus. It's too late for Legate Claus, but I suggest we try to rekindle the joy of Christmas within poor Inzil the Snowman. Let us sing carols to him for every hour of every day.

Do we really need to lynch him? No, no! Christmas cheer will be enough. Re-education. It worked for Scrooge. I'll gather my ghostly siblings and we shall apply our skills of persuasion. Between scaring him and jolly meals, it will surely work. Tiny Tim McCaber, you should come along too.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I wouldn't be surprised at all if she was the cobbler (who failed big time yesterDay)

No, I did not fail big time yesterDay. I big time won the game yesterDay. I am not the Cobbler. I am not a Wolf either. Nor a Ranger. As it happens, I am not an Ordo either.

If you didn't get it yet, I am the Seer.

(go on, shake your heads, roll your eyes, I won't blame you for it.)

My original original plan was to keep my head down. Well, I failed at that big time. Interpreting the events of Night2 as I have already said yesterDay (that part of my fake-reveal was completly true) I realised that I will most likely be killed on Night3, since the Ranger cannot protect the same person twice in a row. I could reveal. Or I could give the wolves a darn good reason not to kill me that Night. So I started playing the Cobbler with Legate.

However, at that point I had one known innocent in addition to Legwolf. My plan rested on communicating to him/her that I am the Seer and Legate is the wolf, as a back-up. Unfortunately, the said innocent did not respond to me in time, and I did not dare to go full-scale cobbler until I got confirmation from them. When I realised that Legate wasn't buying my half-hearted cobbler attempt, I changed my plan. I still had to give a reason for the wolves not to kill me the following Night, so I revealed as the next best thing - Ordo.

I admit that my biggest fear this Night was that I would still be killed, either because the wolf did not trust a word I said about my un-Seerness, or simply because they thought I would bee to much of a trusted/known inocent. My hope was that someone would look more Seerish that I did to the wolf (whom I did not know yet), or at least more profitable to kill. And, here I am, with a third name up my sleeve. I dreamed Inzil.

Unfortunately, I cannot give you his role, other than that he is a baddie. I know I'm not supposed to quote the Mod's PMs, but I don't really have a choice. Lottie said that Zil is Legate's "henchman", and I am not sure if that refers to the cobbler or the other wolf. I've bombarded her with PMs asking for clarification, but she has not answered yet. I will tell you Zil's role as soon as I get a reply. Either way, he is evil. I am more inclined to think wolf, but I'm not taking chances.

I will not be here for a good chunk of the Day, but I will be back a couple hours before DL. So if you have any questions I should answer - either now or at the end of the Day.

By the way, I am waiting with the name of the innocent, and I will or will not reveal it depending on Inzil's role.

[Coppermirror]

Dropping in quickly, just have time to ask one question.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyway, I remain unconvinced by Galadriel. I wouldn't be surprised at all if she was the cobbler (who failed big time yesterDay), but as it's pretty obvious she's not a wolf I think we can leave her be.

Could you explain what you think G55 might have been trying to do yesterDay, if she was the Cobbler? You seem to have an idea there.

YesterDay I thought there was an outside chance that G55 was the cobbler, but only if it was all a shockingly big scheme to get a Seer-Legate. But Legate was a wolf. Right now I haven't got a scenario in mind where G55 could possibly be a Cobbler.

Edit: cross-posted with G55! I'm surprised. I thought she might be the Ranger.

[Morsul the Dark]

generally speaking evil means wolf, most cobblers are revealed to seers as innocent.

Though you're asking us to swallow you picked two wolves in a row... We'll have to see if someone tries to counter you.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

generally speaking evil means wolf, most cobblers are revealed to seers as innocent.

Lottie did not say evil. She said henchman. That means Zil is evil, but it's unclear whether cobbler or wolf.

And Lottie said that the cobbler appears as cobbler to the Seer.

Originally Posted by Morsul

Though you're asking us to swallow you picked two wolves in a row... We'll have to see if someone tries to counter you.

I do recall a game where Seeromer picked two wolves in a row in the first two Nights, and for such a silly reason that it was almost unbelievable. That's much more impressive than two wolves in a game. Plus, I don't know 100% yet that Zil is a wolf, I just think he's more wolf than cobbler. Once again, I'll tell you what his role is when Lottie clarifies.

As for how it happened that I dreamt Inzil... I made a list of people I was considering: Nerwen, Eonwe, Inzil, Lommy, and Cop. And one by one I discarded them until I was left with Inzil. Lommy looked more like cobbler material, and I wanted to get a wolf. Cop I felt that if she's a wolf the village would be able to figure her out. Eonwe and Nerwen I discarded based on why they are suspicious; they didn't feel that wolvish to me. Then I factored in the possibility that my dream will come out innocent, and I still got that Inzil would be the most useful to know. Hence, Inzil.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I do recall a game where Seeromer picked two wolves in a row in the first two Nights, and for such a silly reason that it was almost unbelievable. That's much more impressive than two wolves in a game.

And then there's the amazing Nerwen....

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

generally speaking evil means wolf, most cobblers are revealed to seers as innocent.

Morsul is correct, though I honestly believe "henchman" would indicate cobbler rather than wolf, especially since it seems no confirmation of alignment was given. Assuming Gal is telling the truth, I believe Lottie will clear up the issue when she has a chance. In the meantime, I'm going to see who else I suspect.


EDIT: x'd with Gal

[Eönwë]

Ok, I've finally caught up. And wow, a lot seems to have happened.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, it's nice to see a gamble pay off with a wolf-lynch. It's a little disquieting though that G55 is still with us. Would she not have been a tempting target as a potential Seer? Still, maybe the Ranger was a deterrent.

The three most likely options I see are:

• They didn't actually vote her the Night before last, so the ranger could indeed have protected her.
• She is a wolf.
• The wolves want us to believe that she's a wolf.

Given that I can't see anything particularly incriminating about her and that I have limited time toDay (this is turning out much worse in terms of time than I expected), I'm going to leave her for toDay, especially as she'll be in the spotlight the whole time anyway for the rest of the game.

At the moment, I think I need to give Lommy and Shasta a closer look.


edit: Whoa, it looks like I hadn't clicked send. This was before G55's reveal.
edit 2: fixed formatting

[Eönwë]

If G55 is the Seer
Zil is either the wolf or cobbler. It makes sense to kill him either way.

If G55 is another innocent
It would be very risky and end in her getting killed toMorrow.

If G55 is the cobbler
This is exactly what she'd do. She'd die toMorrow, after taking out an extra ordo.

If G55 is a wolf
She thinks she's found the cobbler, and is willing to give xem up to look good.



Of course, her claim of henchman is an issue, because it means that either she's telling the honest truth or she's claiming something out-of-game, which is much worse than McCaber's "I didn't realise the game was starting until toDay".


So, at the moment, I'm inclined to believe that it'd be best to go along with her reveal.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so I'm going to go in about an hour, but I pretty much think that going with Zil seems the best option at the moment. If anyone's around with a differing opinion, now would be a good time to tell me.

[Inziladun]

Well, it seems G55 is the Cobbler after all. I would not advise the real Seer to do anything risky.

[Eönwë]

Well, since I'll most likely not be back (though I should be free for most of toMorrow)

++Zil

[Galadriel55]

Back and reading.

Zil is a wolf.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Back and reading.

Zil is a wolf.

Little bit redundant there.

[Morsul the Dark]

Well uh.... friends?
Thus the game Ends
All nice and quick
just Frosty to kick
in the end Christmas was saved
and you little poppits can rave
at least until next year
then I must say with fear
I think I'll dressup my good friend Max
And load my sleigh up with Sacks
and away with your trees and toys
there will be no happiness or joy
I must to mny cave to plan and scheme
A world without noise, now there's the dream.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Back and reading.

Zil is a wolf.

Sorry, dear. I didn't know if you'd be back, and it was late in the Day, so I spilled the beans for you.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Sorry, dear. I didn't know if you'd be back, and it was late in the Day, so I spilled the beans for you.

I'm just sorry that you had to confirm the truth of the dream as you did it. I guess that the word of a Mod convinces the village like no Seer can.


By the way, Cabbie, what? You're the cobbler? I was like a gazillion percent sure it was Lommy! Especially after I found out that Zil is evil. She buddied up with both him and Legate yesterDay. Oh goodness!