WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Loslote]

Sorry I took so long - I got lost in the caves. Did you know some of them have more than one door? What kind of crazy design is that!

*ahem* Moving on.

I feel quite good so far about Greenie and Rikae - they seem to be reacting genuinely, from what I can tell. Bane is quite well-spoken for a newbie - his/her #113 made sense to me, in a fresh, new kind of way. Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort, which makes me raise my eyebrows a bit. I'd have to say she's my top suspect right now.

EDIT: xed since Bane's 117

[Rikae]

++McCaber

[Coppermirror]

Blimey, wizzers are tasty as can be. I could eat 'em all week, I could. An' congrats to our Insomniac troll; they're so clever a troll I can 'ardly believe they're one of us.

*ahem*

Very nice narration there, mods! I like the way you used bits of dialogue from the Day. A bit sad there probably won't be such good lines toDay, with the banter mostly over.

There's a lot to analyse in the posts from yesterDay. Though I thought the odds were good that someone would go for me after my last post yesterDay, I wasn't expecting quite this much, so I'll respond to one or two points now. I'm really tired, so I'll have to come back later to do any proper analysis of the posts and votes from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Thoughts Part 1...

Coppermirror, "Cop"- - Voted early for Boro who had only to two straight up banter posts. Certainly to watch.

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.

On Day 1, when all there has been so far is a lot of banter that there doesn't seem to be anything much in for serious analysis, and you have to vote immediately, what are you going to do? The only thing to do, short of abstaining from voting or deciding via random number generator (both of which are things I would hate to do) is to look at each person's posts and judge by how suspicious you feel about each of them. Boro's posts were the ones I felt most suspicious of, so Boro got my vote. I didn't have a lot of choice in voting in that way yesterDay, but I did hope that it would at least stir up some discussion of substance. It leading to a wizzard slipping up and getting caught that very day was rather better than I expected, though!

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

That is my best theory on why Pom had that turn of face, like a plan suddenly backfiring and wanting to draw attention to Cab instead of Cop, as we see how Cab almost got lynched instead.

Gil, I don't think your theory stands up very well at all. (In fact, it might even be suspicious itself...) If you look through the posts before Pom's vote, a number of other people had already voiced serious suspicions of me. Accordingly, Pom's vote for me could not have been an empty vote for somebody who was not under any real suspicion.

But, I am quite curious about why Pom made that turn of opinion yesterDay too. I'll look at it a bit more later, but I can see a number of possibilities off the top of my head.

Pom could have:
- seen an excellent opportunity to go after McCaber that Day. If he's innocent, then after voting for me, proposing an extra innocent as a target is something in the best interests of the wizzards. They want as many innocents under suspicion as possible.
- or, it could have been that but that she was setting up McCaber for a target toDay rather than yesterDay.
- or McCaber is a wizzard, and Pom felt that the vote bandwagon was making them both look fishy, and she was trying to disassociate herself.
- Pom knew that I'm not a wizzard, so she knew that if I'd got lynched, people would look carefully at those who voted for me.
- ...and because she cross-posted with McCaber, she became the second person to vote for me rather than the first, and could have feared that that would make her look suspicious later on. By trying to back off from me, she could have been trying to prevent danger to herself.

I've considered the possibility that she might have made a genuine attempt to stop people voting from me, but that only makes sense if she thinks I'm the cobbler, and I don't think I said anything which could possibly make her think I was, so I'm discounting that.

I'll have to look at all the possibilities and maybe some more in more depth later when I'm less tired, because there could be some valuable info there on whether or not McCaber is innocent. See you all later.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.
.

Yeah the deadline in this game is pretty rough for me too usually falling in my work day. I don't find an issue with your voting early, look at my own early vote. Your vote sticks out for me because you seemed to picked Boro out of a litany of banter posts to vote for.

[Nerwen]

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?
EDIT: formatting.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

Like I said, you certainly had other options, so all in all I don't think you're my top suspect toDay/Night.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Loslote

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.




...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway.

As for innocent Cab I'd think it's pretty clear my interretation was in the form of hypothetical. A theory I ran with with many of the voters for example if nog is guilty cab is innocent.

x
ed withZil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

ah but see the reason is all in the timing.

A wizard, I doubt, would be the first to vote for a packmate.

The third would be highly risky as that was the tying vote

The fourth vote was the clincher so it would be odd for a wizard to so readily shove pom across the line.

So if there's a wizard there it's the second vote, you. That's the thinking anyway

How in Middle-earth does that alone justify your making Lottie top suspect?. We don't, after all, know if there was any wolf-on-wolf voting.

Meanwhile, as I said, it's likely there was some attempt to save Pom, and I think that's where we should be looking first.
Edit: x'd with McCaber.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

Meh, could be. You'd think she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely though, if she'd wanted. Then again, you could be right and it was a gamble gone awry.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

IF Lottie is a wizard that MAY clear Nog as Lottie has started steering into him so far toNight

Yes. along the lines of her vote, she surely would have come up with others to suspect if she and Nog were mates.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?

Any of those could be the case. Definitely a strange situation. I think #1 is unlikely, as that shouldn't have been a major issue for a baddie.

x/d with Lottie

[McCaber]

A Look Back at Pomegranate; or, The Death of a Wizard. Warning: all contents are my subjective reading and interpretation of the text in question.

Post 4: fluff IC. Tells us nothing about motives.
Post 15: rules recap to try and be helpful. Questioning Morsul about his actions in the previous 10 posts and an exhortation to conversation. Seems to be mostly laying groundwork for a defence against a possible Morsul attack later.
Post 92: doesn't suspect Nerwen or Gil after their spat. Comes down much harder on CM. Probably trying to butter up the first two parties and make her seem more reasonable to them by trying to see their posts in the absolute best light.
Post 95: misreads Nog accidentally.
Post 99: likes Rikae's behavior, even though I am about to say the same things and get raged at with the fire of a thousand suns. Contradictory posting is suspicious posting. Does go after Brin a bit, but this line of though is quickly dropped.
Post 100: corrects the mistake she made in post 95.
Post 102: votes for CM for much the same reasons as I did.
Post 103: notices my vote, panics. Why the panic? Was she trying to protect CM for some reason and in that post dissuaded any more wizards from voting that direction?

And that was the last we heard of her.

EDIT: X'd x 4.

[Nerwen]

And, of course, the other big question is: did Pom's comrades bus her or not?

I can't see why she would have appeared obviously doomed to them at any point yesterDay- if there was wolf-on-wolf voting there, it's more likely to have come at a time when it still seemed relatively safe, i.e. from Zil or Lottie. Not that you can count on this- my king, for example, has been known to bus his packmates quite gratuitously, precisely because it "clears" him. Anyway, it seems probable to me that there was at least some attempt to save Pom.
EDIT:x'd since my last post. Edit 2:fixed non sequitur.

[McCaber]

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.