WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Morsul the Dark]

Part 3- did I mention I'm so glad there's only 4 pages two of which are practically banter.

Ozban, "Oz"- -

Mors - Really active, might be just his style, might be trying to confuse us newcomers.

I don't try that usually just sort of happens anyway...
FInds Gil suspicious or more than Nerwen anyway vote's Cab finds his vote opportunistic Another vote like Nog's seemed to be pretty heavily going one way then switched it up

Rikae, "Rick"- Hates the banter, finds cop most suspcious, feels used by Cab and/or Pom votes Mccab finds his vote the most opportunistic. Seems pretty innocent

satansaloser2005, "Sal"-Lot of banter. Defends Gil Votes Pom Seems innocent also one of the first to point out Pom's very weird post...

Shastanis Althreduin, "Shaz"- Showed up late, voted Pom after not having much time to think will get a pass for now.

Volo, "Vol"- finds Nerwen most suspicious and votes her. seems on the level.

*headdesk* thank god...

[Coppermirror]

Back and reading...

[Nerwen]

Nogalysis

#81.
Doesn't like votes so far, especially Gil's for me.

#97.
Still doesn't like Gil's vote, but partly accepts his explanation that it was a "test".

Originally Posted by Nog

Then again, bringing on some pressure by exactly giving a second vote to someone that early could be reasonable tactics to see whether the dog barks the stick hits...

This sounds reasonable, but ignores how late Gil's explanation was in coming, and also the wildness of his claim that his "test" had in fact been a success. Hasty reading? A baddie trying to keep his options open?

#98.
Explains to Pom (#95) that he was saying "thee" not "three" in his poem, and was thus not confused about the number of Wizards.

#97.
Discusses the mechanics of suspicion and bandwaggons. Will neither defend nor suspect Cop "at the moment". Warns us all to beware those who "hold their horses and only have nice things to say about other players".

#124.
Pom's infamous post is "pretty natural" from an innocent, though it could also be the work of a wolf trying to "look considerate".

#129.
Replying to Boro's accusation of being "non-commital" (#123), says he has only had time to "skim through and make some fast general comments".

#134, #135.
Greenie is suspiciously plausible and over-confident, making too detailed a case for her vote: "the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us". Suspects Gil for his belated explanation. Suspects Pom "a little" because of her post at #124. Not suspicious of the early voters. Most worried about "all the people who fly under our radars at the moment... like Volo, Sally, Lottie, Zil".

#140.

With Cab I'm most bothered about his last answer where he says he voted early because he doesn't like the last ten minute surprises while a) voting hours before the DL, and b) still had over an hour to hang around and post after his vote.

I need to check back about Copper next, as to how bad his vote was to compare to these later developements.

Reasoning in this post is perfectly valid- in fact I agree with it- however, at 30 minutes to go it is Nog's first ever mention of the player he winds up voting.

#147.
Disagrees with the "meme" that Cop claimed her vote was well-substantiated.

#148. Vote-post. (2 minutes before DL.)

Originally Posted by Nog

I'll add...

++ McCaber

So it's Pom now (first with as many votes) with which I agree - so any further votes could be telling us something.

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

Conclusion: Some of this is standard Nog, like his warning against submarines. Some I would accept as legitimate from a player in a hurry due to RL pressures. Overall, though, I think he looks pretty bad. No smoking gun here, but the whole pattern could well fit either a vacillating cobbler or wolf hoping to save his fellow without committing himself too far.

EDIT:X'd with Cop and Brinn.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Nerwen: No vote (does she ever vote on Day 1?) YesterDay she fired back at Gil for his vote against her. While it was defensive, I think her reasoning behind it is justified. ToDay, I do like her contribution so far.

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive". Well, Gil hasn't played in so long that I think you could say he comes from "ancient times". It strikes me that, if not simply paranoid, some of his comments sound like a rather clumsy attempt at what I used to call the "witchhunt" technique:

Originally Posted by Gil

...you being so defensive and afraid that the two votes for you will spell your end reveals something. Are you hiding something Ner?

I mean, how do you get that out of:

Originally Posted by Me

This may sound like an "omgus" post- but honestly, I think Gil's post there looks really bad. He says he's voting me so as not to "add another name to this growing list"- a list (at the time of posting) of three names in a village of eighteen.

or

Originally Posted by Me

I know, I know, people who never vote on Day One are a disgrace, aren't we- er, I mean they?

But seriously- Gil, at the point when three people each have one vote, you're certainly not limited to them only, and when you claim you are, it looks like opportunism followed by hand washing

–that being all I had said at that point?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I'm a she, and I think the same goes for Pom, but I could be mistaken.

She is, and I actually knew you were too– I was just being facetious with that "unless I'm much mistaken". Here's the thing: I do think it's unlikely she would have made that mistake had you two in fact been packmates– at the same time, though, it's really not that advisable to clear a player just through meta-reasoning: you never know what might have been happening behind the scenes. I'm wondering if I should have brought it up in the first place.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Quote:

I don't see what kind of benefit a cobbler would get out of a vote like that one, although if you think otherwise then perhaps Pom might have thought so too. But I do think it's unlikely she did. Pom wrote a whole paragraph about my vote in her post #92 as set-up, then voted at #102 while saying that she had to leave now. She must have done that without thinking there was anything cobblerish there...but then she notices something back in my posts and changes her mind, right after her vote crosses with McCaber? I reckon that if thinking I could be a cobbler was her reason, she would already have considered it beforehand.

Well, yes– I argued that myself here. But Pom's behaviour there is very weird anyway, however you explain it.

[Coppermirror]

Pom analysis/recap, page 1:

- Pom has the second post, with banter.
- Morsul lists Pom as "tends to be suspicious to me" in his first impressions list.
- Pom recaps the rules, and then asks Morsul about what his statement about her means for how he'll treat her. Then encourages people to post more and get discussion going.
- Morsul replies that it means he'll avoid knee-jerk reactions.
- Morsul says "Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information." That's a bit odd.
- Inzil comments on the above, saying it was more ordinary Day 1 stuff than a suggestion.
- Nerwen comments in banter-style about Pom's lack of troll-speak giving her a headache.
- McCaber makes a recap post. He characterises Inzil's post as having defended Pom, and Nerwen's as "more suspicion of Pom".

I have to wonder why McCaber was putting that sort of spin on those posts. To me, Inzil's comment had nothing to do with defending Pom, and Nerwen's looked like banter rather than real suspicion. Why the focus on Pom?

Pom, page 2:

- Brinniel gives three people including Pom points for effort. Later thinks that "Pom seems okay as well, for now" when going through opinions, and that was reasonable at the time.

Pom, page 3:

- Pom posts her first round of impressions. On Nerwenvs Gil, doesn't think that it means either is guilty. About Gil, says that he seems more like a typical first-day-lynch victim. Then she goes ahead with saying I'm looking much worse than either of them, with theories about motives.

- Pom misreads Nog's poem as having the wrong number of wizards in, and considers whether it could be a tactic for appearing innocent, as she would think that Nog would check the rules. Then thinks it would be strange for him to use that sort of strategy and that she doesn't know what to think, so will just inform.

This has to be either a strategy to throw mild suspicion on an innocent, or feigned suspicion to hide a wizard-mate. I've no idea which at this point.

- Pom says her gut feeling for Rikae is good, but her feelings for Brin don't hold up so well on second readings, regarding Brin's suspicion of Nerwen. Says of the latter that "even though I wouldn't say it makes Ner happily innocent in my eyes, I wouldn't see it as suspicious, more the opposite".

It's hard to say what this means. Maybe something will pop out later.

- Pom says she has to vote now and so votes for me, saying there isn't time to look for subtleties in other posts. Says she doesn't like Brin's vote and will be keeping an eye on her, but will give her a pass for today as she has another suspect (me) and she likes that Brin was making an effort.

What does this mean for Brin...? I'm inclined to think that it's more likely to suggest that Brin is innocent than not. It looks as if she's saving her up for later or trying to encourage later votes (as the day...night...was young). On the other hand, I can't see anyone else criticising Brin at that point.

- Posts saying she now doesn't know what to make of McCaber, with wonderings about whether he's jumping on a bandwagon. She now wants us to watch those who vote for me. Sally jumps immediately on the latter statement, followed by Inzil and McCaber. (And it didn't go down with anyone else well either.)

- Rikae doesn't like Pom or McCab's votes.

- Greenie thinks Pom and Cab's votes look a tad opportunistic, the latter more so. Later, in response to Bane, thinks that Pom must have known that her statement would sound incongruous.

Pom, page 4:

- Loslote says that "Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort" and is her top suspect at present.

- Nog thinks that Pom could easily have made that statement as an innocent, but goes on to say that then again, a wizard could have done that to try to look considerate, worrying that her vote wasn't as safe as she thought and trying to downplay bandwagoning.

- Inzil votes Pom, for the vote and her remark.

- Loslote finds the three waves of suspicion too easy, and votes Pom as she suspects her and this is an alternative to the bandwagons.

- Volo thinks Pom feels more genuine than Nerwen and McCaber.

- Nog suspects Pom a little, because of her remark.

- Sally votes Pom for attempted bandwagoning.

- Bane says Pom is his top suspect, but that he might not vote this time.

- Shasta shows up and casts the deciding vote for Pom, on grounds of gut feelings and bandwagoning.

- Nog agrees with a Pom lynch, but votes McCaber, thinking that future votes could tell us something. That's a bit odd, given that only two people had yet to vote at that point.

So based on the above, I'm more likely to think that Brin is innocent than not. Nog's posts might have been a subtle wizard-attempt to save Pom, but I don't see why he would bother doing so. I'll have to think about this more. Sally jumped immediately on Pom's remark and seemed very innocent all along. It could have been a very canny wizard's tactic to put in the first kick to a ship they thought was sure to sink, but still...drawing immediate attention to another wizard, on Day 1, when there were other candidates for voting? That's risky enough for me to assume she's more likely to be innocent, although I must admit I've never seen a wolf Sally and have no idea how she's likely to behave.

The way McCaber phrased things in post #29 does make me a bit suspicious, but it's not enough to let me draw any conclusions. My impression at this point is that Pom made her remark because she was worried of being seen as jumping on a bandwagon. I still have to work out whether and what that means for McCaber's status.

While looking through I noticed that some people were suspicious of me not just for my vote but for "looking helpful", apparently in post #56 where I recapped things so far. I'd like to point out, as Nerwen did, that that sort of post is pretty normal for me at that point of the game. If all there is is banter, I still look at the banter and try to see if anything stands out. That sort of post is mostly to help me think through things. In post #56, I wasn't able to find anything there of interest during the time I had available.

And now I'm going for a while, because this post took me two hours to write.

Edit: cross posted with Nerwen.

[Coppermirror]

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

Yes, but one of them was me.

But that's not the real problem- it's that Nog both speaks of the lynch as already decided: "So it's Pom now (first with as many votes)" and of what "any further votes" could tell us. A real brain-twister, that post is.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

I fear you are right, but I am going to have to vote now as I may not be back before DL, and anyway he does at least look more guilty than innocent to me.

So-

++Nogrod

Volo is another who needs looking at, again for (possibly) trying to save Pom. I will do this later if I have time, but someone else should as well.

[satansaloser2005]

I have returned for a few moments to inform your trolly selves that Boro will not be appearing toDay. He's swamped at work (sounds lovely to me, honestly) and will likely be unable to post.

I haven't read a flipping thing since the narrations (yay!) and I don't have time to at the moment, but I'll be back later with thoughts.

[Inziladun]

Ok, common sense says at least that Cop is unlikely to be a mate of Pom's. There was just no reason for Pom to have voted that way if that was the case.

Looking at it from a saving Pom perspective, Boro voted Cop (third vote), Volo went with Nerwen, and Nog voted for Cab. While it's certainly possible there's a Wizard on the Pom-wagon, I'm making those three the focus.

I see Nerwen's already voted for Nog, and hopefully I'll get time to look at the other two.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive".

Yeah, I suppose "defensive" behavior does have a history of being seen as a negative. But I don't think defensiveness is necessarily suspicious. It depends on the nature of the vote placed against someone. If the vote is well-reasoned and consistent with the voter's earlier posts, then defensive behavior does look like an overreaction. But if a vote is poorly thought out or random, then being defensive is justified.

In my previous post, I forgot to keep the cobbler in consideration. Anyone could be the cobbler and their vote and/or a baddie's opinion of them doesn't put them in the clear for that role. But I'm not going to worry much about that possibility since the cobbler isn't the easiest to identify, especially if they inadvertently help the village. And the cobbler counts as an ordo; it's the wizards we want to lynch. However, the suggestion that Nogrod could be the cobbler does make sense. His vote doesn't look innocent, but as I stated earlier, it's not necessarily wizard-like either.

[Ozban]

I have just about thirty minutes, so I'll have to make this fast.

I have been looking at Morsul's post so far, and I'm pretty sure I will vote him tonight. But before that I'll review his actions up to now, from my point of view.

First: post #8 Seems like looking over all our personal playstyles from his point of view. Activity, but really unhelpful. And no banter on page full of banters, builds seeming of genuine desire to help, but the substance is missing. Additionaly Pom is the only one marked suspicious in this post. Is that maneuver to build distance in between himself and a packmate?

Second: post #16

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I certainly feel odd being the least IC on the first page

Could be interpreted as "look at me, Im actually the only one not bantering, but showing some real effort". Suspicious declaration. Well Mors, sorry, but you have done nothing helpful up to that point. Let's see what's next.

Third: post #22

From "tends to be suspicious" to "genuine suggestion". Ok, hardly a proof but if we consider, for the sake of argument, that Mors is a Wizz, then this post is really understendable, but also intresting.

Fourth: post #24

Seeing Kath as cobbler? This could be passed as confirming reception of cobblers hint, or pointing to cobbler in attempt to start cob-hunt having wizzers a free time as a result.

Fifth: doublepost #59
and #60

Reminding everyone of Kat, voting her, and signing off. Very safe vote, since nobody would actually vote Kat with such a weak evidence. Nice way to avoid the last-minute mess, staying under radar in the process. And that's for his participation in Day1

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts. His recap is intresting, but did not tell me much, at least not anything new.
Lottie's post #169 is something I totaly relate to. It seems like Mors-Wizz slipping unintentionally.

I like Nerwen's analysis of Pom's panic (#168). My thoughts, when I voted followed the line of Nerw's point 3. It seemed almost clear to me. Now as you summed it up, i'm not so sure anymore. But certainly McCab-wizz is a distinct possibility.

As for suspicions againt me, I understand them, I find Nog's vote suspicious and I can be obviously suspected for similar reasons.

Most likely not gonan appear before deadline, I'm gonna celebrate with friends.
Therefore:

++Morsul the Dark

I hope I made my reasons clear up above.

X-ed since #198