WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Oh, and a correction to my post above. When I said that when Nog voted, only two other people had yet to vote, I was mistaken. It was actually three, which means his choice made a bit more sense.

Yes, but one of them was me.

But that's not the real problem- it's that Nog both speaks of the lynch as already decided: "So it's Pom now (first with as many votes)" and of what "any further votes" could tell us. A real brain-twister, that post is.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay, this one's really weird. Firstly, despite having been fairly active and having discussed various other players, Nog had mentioned McCaber only once before, and not in a way that seemed to indicate particularly strong suspicion. Secondly, if he agrees with the lynch of Pom, why vote someone else? Thirdly- and most significantly- with this post, unless I miscounted, he is actually tying McCaber with Pom, with the outcome still undecided- even though he says "it's Pom now".

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Of course, this scenario does have a pretty slim chance of being accurate, but even disregarding his hypothetical reasoning about Nerwen, I think Nog's behavior really makes more sense as cobbleric than wizardly.

I fear you are right, but I am going to have to vote now as I may not be back before DL, and anyway he does at least look more guilty than innocent to me.

So-

++Nogrod

Volo is another who needs looking at, again for (possibly) trying to save Pom. I will do this later if I have time, but someone else should as well.

[satansaloser2005]

I have returned for a few moments to inform your trolly selves that Boro will not be appearing toDay. He's swamped at work (sounds lovely to me, honestly) and will likely be unable to post.

I haven't read a flipping thing since the narrations (yay!) and I don't have time to at the moment, but I'll be back later with thoughts.

[Inziladun]

Ok, common sense says at least that Cop is unlikely to be a mate of Pom's. There was just no reason for Pom to have voted that way if that was the case.

Looking at it from a saving Pom perspective, Boro voted Cop (third vote), Volo went with Nerwen, and Nog voted for Cab. While it's certainly possible there's a Wizard on the Pom-wagon, I'm making those three the focus.

I see Nerwen's already voted for Nog, and hopefully I'll get time to look at the other two.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, I really don't think I was "defensive". I said I thought Gil's post looked bad for what I believe were purely objective reasons.

Which brings me to something else. "Defensive" is, or has been, a bit of a magic word in Werewolf- in fact in ancient times, when we were all less sophisticated, it used to be quite possible for wolves to get innocents lynched by the simple means of (1) attacking them, and (2) labelling any response whatever as "defensive".

Yeah, I suppose "defensive" behavior does have a history of being seen as a negative. But I don't think defensiveness is necessarily suspicious. It depends on the nature of the vote placed against someone. If the vote is well-reasoned and consistent with the voter's earlier posts, then defensive behavior does look like an overreaction. But if a vote is poorly thought out or random, then being defensive is justified.

In my previous post, I forgot to keep the cobbler in consideration. Anyone could be the cobbler and their vote and/or a baddie's opinion of them doesn't put them in the clear for that role. But I'm not going to worry much about that possibility since the cobbler isn't the easiest to identify, especially if they inadvertently help the village. And the cobbler counts as an ordo; it's the wizards we want to lynch. However, the suggestion that Nogrod could be the cobbler does make sense. His vote doesn't look innocent, but as I stated earlier, it's not necessarily wizard-like either.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! (Will be able to contribute a bit earlier in the Day toMorrow if I'm still around.)

Originally Posted by Nog

Firstly (well the latest thought), I'm a bit worried about Greenie (news!). Without being able to really read and delve into this toDay I'm feeling more or less anguished while thinking I need to vote in 45 minutes, not knowing where to look for or where to concentrate my effort, while Greenie seems to have ample time to make detailed and plausible "case" for her vote even if she - according to hr - only came online a while ago and has already left. I know she's bright and sharp (thence not a troll! ) but it seems a bit too confident what becomes to how she used her time here toDay - the wolves, well the Wizards, know how to use their time unlike us.

I'm always calmer than you anyway. Incidentally, by the time I posted my first post yesterDay, I had already read the thread and picked out the quotes I felt the need to comment on.

And much as I hate to return the favour, Nog, I do agree with those who find your vote post very fishy. Almost to the point of being too fishy, as Lottie points out:

Originally Posted by Lottie

You know what? This actually makes sense as cobbler behavior, assuming he thought you, Nerwen, were a wolf. With you as one of the bandwagon options, he ties two others (Pom's and Cabbie's), and leaves your options open (to save a packmate, bus one, whatever you wanted to do).

Even without the Nerwen scheme (which is neat, I admit), Nog's vote could be seen as cobblerish; creating a tie, drawing suspicion on himself, attempting to save a suspected wolfowitz? Could also be a careless Nogzard, or simply a Nogzard unsure of the tally and of who have voted; he didn't necessarily know what the tally was. Or did he? I don't remember and don't have the energy to check.

Originally Posted by Morsul

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.

Someone (I believe it was Lottie) alread pointed this out - an innocent Cab? Since when did you know that?

Originally Posted by Morsul

McCaber, "Cab"- -my logic was thin but stronger than Cabs exageration of Kaths suspicion. very suspicious. But I think probably innocent if the votes in his wagon include wizards

Wait, what? He's probably innocent if wizards voted for him, and yet you suspect Lottie is a wizard because she voted for a wizard?

Originally Posted by Gil

Looking at Pom's reaction to when Cab voted the same feels like she paniced at that, almost weirdly. I honestly want to look a Cop now. Here is my theory:

Pom was trying to be a sneaky wizer and gave a vote for Cop, thinking that vote will have nothing to come of it and evade suspicion on Pom and Cop being Wizers. Then Cab voted for Cop. Pom paniced, fearing that if more people vote for WizerCop(keeping the hooliganwizers off the streets har har), Cop will be lynched.

This is an interesting theory but as Cop herself pointed out, she was suspected by quite a few others too so voting her at that point would have been quite risky and Pom, I believe, would have known that.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.

I think that is possible (which might have something to do with the fact that I still find McCaber somewhat suspicious). At any rate, I find that likelier than Cop being her packmate. It is of course possible that we are vastly overinterpretating that comment of Pom's and wasting our time analyzing it..

Originally Posted by McCaber

If there was an effort by the wizards to save Pom, it most likely took the form of a more vicious attack against another target. Volo was the only person who actively defended Pom, and everyone else shunted their rage to me or on CM.

True; and I'm not quite sure whether that makes Volo look better or worse.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Kath: No vote. Only posted banter. Some might try to read into it, but I don't think there's really anything to read into. But the question is...where did she go?

This is Kath we're talking about. I'm surprised she showed up on Day 1 at all!


EDIT: x-ed with Ozzy

[Ozban]

I have just about thirty minutes, so I'll have to make this fast.

I have been looking at Morsul's post so far, and I'm pretty sure I will vote him tonight. But before that I'll review his actions up to now, from my point of view.

First: post #8 Seems like looking over all our personal playstyles from his point of view. Activity, but really unhelpful. And no banter on page full of banters, builds seeming of genuine desire to help, but the substance is missing. Additionaly Pom is the only one marked suspicious in this post. Is that maneuver to build distance in between himself and a packmate?

Second: post #16

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I certainly feel odd being the least IC on the first page

Could be interpreted as "look at me, Im actually the only one not bantering, but showing some real effort". Suspicious declaration. Well Mors, sorry, but you have done nothing helpful up to that point. Let's see what's next.

Third: post #22

From "tends to be suspicious" to "genuine suggestion". Ok, hardly a proof but if we consider, for the sake of argument, that Mors is a Wizz, then this post is really understendable, but also intresting.

Fourth: post #24

Seeing Kath as cobbler? This could be passed as confirming reception of cobblers hint, or pointing to cobbler in attempt to start cob-hunt having wizzers a free time as a result.

Fifth: doublepost #59
and #60

Reminding everyone of Kat, voting her, and signing off. Very safe vote, since nobody would actually vote Kat with such a weak evidence. Nice way to avoid the last-minute mess, staying under radar in the process. And that's for his participation in Day1

I had only limited time to look at Mors's toDay/Night's posts. His recap is intresting, but did not tell me much, at least not anything new.
Lottie's post #169 is something I totaly relate to. It seems like Mors-Wizz slipping unintentionally.

I like Nerwen's analysis of Pom's panic (#168). My thoughts, when I voted followed the line of Nerw's point 3. It seemed almost clear to me. Now as you summed it up, i'm not so sure anymore. But certainly McCab-wizz is a distinct possibility.

As for suspicions againt me, I understand them, I find Nog's vote suspicious and I can be obviously suspected for similar reasons.

Most likely not gonan appear before deadline, I'm gonna celebrate with friends.
Therefore:

++Morsul the Dark

I hope I made my reasons clear up above.

X-ed since #198

[Brinniel]

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

X-ed with Greenie

[Inziladun]

I still get confused, but we're in Night 2 now, right?

So anyway, looking at yesterNight's voting:

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Me--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Gil's vote looks like a potential easy bandwagon attempt.

Pom's vote makes it unlikely Cop is a Wizard.

Rikae's vote for Cab looks fairly clean.

Greenie's vote could be seen as bandwaggonish, but she reasoned it pretty well.

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

Lottie followed me, which to me makes her an unlikely fellow of Pom's. There was just no reason I can see that she would have done that as a mate.

Boro's vote for Cop tied him with Cab. The rules state the first person to get the highest number of votes is lynched. If Boro
is a Wizard, he must have counted on someone helping him there.

Volo went for Nerwen, tying her with Cab and Cop. What I said about Boro applies, except that this to me indicates that Boro and Volo aren't likely to both be Wizards, assuming both knew the rule about ties.

Sally put Pom at three also, which gave us a four-way tie, with Cab the lynchee at that point.

Shasta put Pom in the lead, which looks pretty solid for him.

Nog put in a late vote for Cab, tying him with Pom. Could have been a last ditch effort to save Pom, maybe hoping for someone else to follow him.

Just based on the votes, Nog looks the lost likely to have tried to save Pom, followed by Boro, and lastly, Volo.

x/d with all since #202

[Nogrod]

A nice 12-hour workday is over and I need to make groceries and make some very-late dinner... but just a fast eyeing of the thread reveals some people seem to be questioning my vote late on D1 - and even voting for me based on it.

So just trying ot make a few things clear before that behaviour becomes too far-spread.

Those who have played with me know well enough that when a wolf I have no problem throwing a mate under a bus if it makes me look good in the early stages of the game (I know the seers oftentimes want to check me so that kind of an "heroics" might just postpone the seer for looking at me too early).

So why on earth - if I were a packmate of Pom - did I do what I did? That would have been soo unnecessary an attempt (the possibility of it going down the drain aka. Pom getting lynched anyway would have been high indeed while risking myself) while the other option (making sure Pom gets lynched and I get the glory for it) would have been so much more smoother. I would have been a very stupid wolf

But as I didn't know whether Pom was a wolf or not - or whether anyone else is or is not - I had no other chance but to work on my own suspicions and hunches. Like we all trolls must.

So I was pretty much okay seeing Pom lynched as I suspected her somewhat (well you rarely are "okay" with a lynch on D1 when everything is such a mess), and as the first one to have gathered the four votes at that point she would be on the chopping block anyway, whatever I would vote unless someone came forwards at the last moment... and that's what I wanted to see, that if there would be a prince Charming to come for her rescue at the last moment. That could have been a jackpot (not that I trusted it would happen, but with my vote I created a chance for it).

Okay.

More later as I get home and get something to eat.