WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Nerwen]

The Ozwagon
Important note: many quotes are from much longer posts, often ones in which a large number of other players are mentioned.

#163

Originally Posted by Gil

This leads to Green, Nog, Oz and Rik being added to my suspects list, if they were trying to save their fellow wizer by drawing the votes onto Cab.

#187

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz: Voted for McCaber. He suspects Gil then votes McCaber out of nowhere (putting him in the lead). Suspicious.

#196. Nerwen votes Nogrod.


#200. Ozban votes Morsul.


#210.
McCaber votes Rikae


#213.
Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at ##187.) Adds "I'm still wary of Oz, but I'd like to hear more from him."


#202

Originally Posted by Greenie

Right now I feel the worst about Morsul, Nog, and Cab. I doubt all three are evil, though. Morsul and Cab would be a weird pair, as would Cab and Nog. And I have a nagging feeling that we might well be dealing with a wolf pack of, say, Brinn, Volo and Ozban.

#203 (marked "x'd with Greenie")

Originally Posted by Brinn

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

#204. Greenie quotes #203, #204, adds eyeroll.


#206

Originally Posted by Greenie

In all seriousness, though, I'm not sure what to think of Ozban's analysis of Morsul. While I agree with pretty much every point he makes, he seems to make the points with an assumption that Morsul is evil. It's as if he has decided the outcome already before doing the analysis. Then again, I've seen innocents get fixated in that way too, so I don't know.

#207.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Oz at least gives better reasoning for his vote toDay compared to yesterDay. (...) Oz's vote doesn't make me any more or less suspicious of him.

#208.

Originally Posted by Zil

Ozban put Cab in the lead, and his vote looks worse than the first two.

#213. Brinn votes Volo (Reasons given at #187.)


#216. Lottie votes Morsul (2)

#220. Gil votes Volo


#228.Rikae votes Ozban

Originally Posted by Rikae

What is the point of Oz's #142, I wonder? Points out who is tied (Cab, Cop, Nerve and Pom) and " I have a feeling much will change before deadline yet". Well, yeah. Something seems fishy here. It's like he's trying to draw someone's attention to the need for a certain vote.

Now, today, Oz comes in with a case against Morsul based entirely on yesterday's posts. Almost as if he, oh, wrote it during the night, not thinking that the night's events, or today's posts, would give him any new information.
Quote:

Then he votes - a fairly safe vote if I'm not mistaken.

#229.

Originally Posted by Copper

And then there's Ozban, whom I somehow seem to have forgotten about almost entirely until now. Epic failure on my part, how could I do that...

#230

Originally Posted by Kath

Ozban --> McCaber 3 (opportunistic vote and not contributing much
(...)
Ozban posted a very useless 'suspicion' list. I mean, there were plenty of unhelpful recapping posts where all they showed were literally shortened version of what was said with no analysis so this at least was better, but it just went 'everyone is suspicious'. Non-committal. Does come out with own thoughts later.

#231.
Copper posts analysis of Ozban, finding him to be excessively cagey and his votes to be "sudden". Is considering voting him, along with Volo and Morsul.


#235.

Originally Posted by Zil

I could vote for Ozban too though. The Morsul vote toNight looks rather fabricated. Coupled with his putting Cab in the lead yesterNight doesn't help him look any better.

#237. Zil votes Ozban (2)

Originally Posted by Zil

After quick deliberation, Gil may be acting too careless for a Wizard. So...

++Ozban

and hope for the best.

#239. Kath votes Morsul (3)


#240. Morsul votes Ozban (3) (x'd since Zil at #237.)

Originally Posted by Morsul

++ Ozban

His vote for me seems to be picking up on other people's suspicion(Which I don't really get but can accept) Seems a little forced and coming from a conclusion first evidence later mentality. Wife's using computer so won't be back before DL.

#241.
Copper votes Ozban (4) (Does not give reason in this post, but see #231. Vote is a tiebreaker.)


#242.

Originally Posted by Sally

I can understand the concern about Oz, but I honestly don't have the time to go back and look at all of his posts, so I'll have to ignore him for the moment.

Originally Posted by Rikae

And doubleposting, but: Cop, why Oz over Morsul? Give us something to gnaw on.

#248.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, Oz doesn't have that many posts to look at. For your convenience:

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/search....archid=3767928

#251. (answering Rikae.)

Originally Posted by Copper

I think that Morsul's turn of phrase might well be something an innocent could say. Morsul doesn't word things extremely carefully and can be a bit sloppy. Aside from that remark, there are things which worry me, but I'm not confident enough in those to vote for him.

The real decision was Ozban over Volo, and to be honest I'm not at all sure I've made the right choice, given the amount of strange things Volo said. The reason I went for Ozban is because of the quick vote placement with no warning, few posts, and because it's likely that a wizard would attack another candidate rather than defend a fellow wizard.

#252.

Originally Posted by Nog

Oz seems a bit suspicious (I looked at a few posts form late D1 and some of toDay), but how much of it is not being used to this game and how much genuine suspiciousness?

#254.

Of the ones with votes (and possible meaningful votes for us two) I might say Oz is a better pick than Morsul or Volo. But none seems especially innocent or suspicious either for me

.


#256.

Originally Posted by Sally

I don't have a problem with voting Oz, really, but Volo and Morsul are still highly suspicious for me.

Assuming it is just us, Volo would be a ridiculous move, as we'd only tie him with Oz and Oz would still die. Thus, unless someone else shows up, our options seem to be Oz and Morsul.

#258.

Originally Posted by Nog

I tired to look also at who had voted for whom (so whether someone's votes were given by shadier or more trustworthy people in this game on my mind) - and only found both main "camps" (Morsul voters and Oz voters) looking too suspicious...

#260.

Originally Posted by Sally

I really feel like an Oz vote from me would not be well-informed, at least enough to be comfortable. Morsul made that arguable slip about McCaber and then revenge voted Oz when he was suddenly in the lead. I'd say that's pretty shifty.

#261.

Originally Posted by Volo

Ozban, "Oz" - I'm somewhat surprised he got voted, since I've missed his guiltiness.

#262.

Originally Posted by Nog

So which one would you suggest: Oz or Morsul?

I could go with either (there's reason for both picks).

Oz is a relative newcomer and might earn a go for it but Morsul could be just his normal...

#263.

Originally Posted by Sally

Oooo! Also, if Morsul is a wizard, his choosing to vote Oz over Volo would make the third lad look very bad as well.

#264. Volo votes Ozban (5) The kill-vote.


#265. Nog votes Morsul (4)


#266. Sally votes Morsul (5) (x'd with Nog and Volo's votes.)

#268. (x'd since #263)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Part of my reason for voting for Oz has evaporated (part I didn't mention) but I still see reason to vote for him, at least more so than Morsul.

Sally (#260) calls Morsul's vote for Ozban "revenge", but in more practical term he was likely voting to save himself- which tells us nothing either way. Of the other voters, Cop is (to use her own expression) very "sudden"– 2 posts earlier she had forgotten all about him– while Rikae did a good deal to encourage suspicion against Ozban early on then– in her own words– "backpedalled".

Now, having tested out as Legolas on one of those personality quizzes, it should surprise nobody when I point out that the only other unknown in any danger whatever was Morsul. Thus, the Oz-votes are highly significant if he is, in fact, a wolf– if not, not, as the wolves wouldn't need to be very active in steering the lynch otherwise.

EDIT:X'd with two Zils.; saw Morsul's vote just before posting.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

I don't buy Rikae's "confession". We have 16 players at the moment, and the ratio of innocent to evil is 13:3. A Wizard Rikae logically would not have done that, at least not until she'd begun receiving votes and truly felt it was hopeless. That does make me wonder about Nerwen's quick vote for her. Even if Rikae isn't being terribly helpful by voting herself, to me that's an insufficient reason to vote her.

I have already explained why I voted her– here: #309. It may have been precipitous, but it was honest.

[A Little Green]

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one. The only way they could be sure of Rikae not being the Purseholder would be if Rikae was one of them, in which case voting for her would seem, at least to me, a seriously bad move. There is still the possibility of Rikae being a wolf and just not in cahoots with Morsul, but I, like Brinn, originally read her "confession" as sarcasm. An overreaction, yes, but RL stress is RL stress (hugs to Rikae, hope you're all right).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm leaning towards agreeing with Morsul about Rikae; but also, him saying that aloud and then voting for her makes him look better. The Wizers don't know who the Purseholder is, and I believe they'd be wary of killing a suspected one.

True, the Purseholder may have the number of one of them, but the odds are still against it. A Morzard might have just taken the gamble that she's wrong.

Then again, I do think that Morsul's stated reason for voting Rikae seems better than Nerwen's.

[Brinniel]

If she were a baddie, Rikae would have to rely on the idea that most players would believe her to be a suicidal innocent, which would be an awfully risky move. Anyone who self-votes is putting themselves at high risk of getting lynched, and if an evil Rikae were lynched, the ratio would be 13-2, making it extremely difficult for the remaining baddies to pull off a win, especially with three gifteds still alive. If an evil Rikae felt certain the increasing lynch would result in her lynch, it seems more likely she would false reveal than self-vote.

I don't know how likely she be the hunter either. This early in the game chances are she'd take down another innocent. And while odds are against it, it'd be particularly disastrous if she accidentally took out the ranger or seer.

EDIT: X-ed from Rikae on.

[A Little Green]

As always tends to happen, the further the game progresses, the less sure I am about anyone. Anyhow -

Bane - I hope he shows up.

Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.

Brinniel - Hm. I'd love a second look; she is somehow under my radar even though I think I've agreed or disagreed with a lot of what she's said (ie. she hasn't slipped by unnoticed).

Cop - Leaning innocent; I still don't think Pom would have voted for a fellow who was being suspected by quite a few others.

Gil - Can't say if his overdoing of his martyr act points more to innocence or to guilt, but I do remember something he said that struck me as a point a Wizer wouldn't make. Can't quote that sadly since I've no idea what and where it was!

Inziladun - As unreadable to me as ever and, consequently, someone I'd like a closer look at. He was a Pom-voter, though (the first, right?) which makes him look a little better.

Kath - Seems like a genuine, sharp, helpful Kath. Nothing that stood out as suspicious.

Loslote - Her Pom vote makes me lean innocent on her, and she's made some really sharp observations I'm not sure a Wizer would point out. Leaning good.

McCaber - Still leaning suspicious on this chap, but I'd like to reread him to make sure I'm not just getting fixated on a Day 1 idea.

Morsul - Gah. I found him really suspicious yesterDay, but toDay I'm no longer sure because his reaction to Rikae's self-vote looks very un-Wizer-like.

Nerwen - Her quick jump on Rikae's self-vote was odd, but I'm not sure a Wizard would do that. An easy vote, in a certain way, but also risky if Rikae was the Purseholder. Also, if the Wizers killed Volo because they thought he was the Seer, it makes Nerwen look pretty good. (Rikae: I don't know, I just see no other point for the Wizards killing Volo. Quite a few people suspected him and he was creating almost as much confusion alive as he does dead. So yes, I think they would have been bound to have had better options. Then again, them taking Volo for a Seer doesn't fit every piece of the puzzle either, so I don't know.)

Nogrod - Believe it or not, but I'm actually inclined to find him more innocent than not (unless the Volo kill was made to mess with our heads and incriminate Rikae, in which case Nog is an evil mastermind).

Rikae - Leaning towards finding her innocent at the moment; quite certainly not going to vote for her.

Sally - Looks pretty good for her Pom-vote, and has seemed innocentish otherwise too - not as nervous and jumpy as the average Salzard. (Then again, if she is a Wizard, she doesn't have much to be jumpy about given how everyone considers her innocent..)

Shasta - Come back, we miss you!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Boro - Looks bad. I'd prefer not to elaborate just yet.

That's interesting. Need to go find and drum up your reasons in my posts? Shouldn't be too hard this time, considering I haven't spammed the game with a plethora of posting. Might as well be out with this supposed elaboration already.

[Coppermirror]

Boro, I'd like some more info about your Day 1 vote. I can see why you didn't like my vote for you earlier, but I'd like to know why you chose to vote for me over the other candidates. Specifically, Pom.

[Nerwen]

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

I'm sorry to keep harping on Rikae, but this sort of thing is bothering me more than her self-vote or even her possibly-in-quotation-marks confession.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, enough about Rikae.. The Greenie-Boro thing is quite interesting... though it's hard to say yet what it's all about...
EDIT: x'd with Lottie.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard. Now tell me a wizard would never kill someone they didn't think was the Seer. It seems to me that following that policy is suicidal and stupid from the perspective of a wizard. I think Rikae had a good point, is too frustrated at the moment to really defend it, and is being bullied by you, a wizard, taking advantage of an easy kill.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Loslote]

At this point, I highly doubt Rikae is a wizard. I don't think a wizard would act like this in this scenario. I think she's simply a stressed-out person who is frustrated and that frustration is clouding her judgement. Pure and simple. It's happened before, to a lot of people. At this point, I'd prefer to leave her alone - the current trend seems to be 'Provoke Rikae. Get into a tizzy over how confusing her responses are. Vote, rinse, repeat'. This is getting us nowhere, and the actual wizards are probably sitting back and laughing their pointy hats off at us.

So, then. Moving on: let's look at the votes from Days 1 and 2, combined.

Day 1

Cop--> Boro (1)
Morsul--> Kath (1)
Brinn--> Nerwen (1)
Gil--> Nerwen (2)
Cab--> Cop (1)
Pom--> Cop (2)
Rikae--> Cab (1)
Greenie--> Cab (2)
Zil--> Pom (1)
Ozban--> Cab (3)
Lottie--> Pom (2)
Boro--> Cop (3)
Volo--> Nerwen (3)
Sally--> Pom (3)
Shasta--> Pom (4)
Nog --> Cab (4)

Day 2

Nerwen -> Nog
Oz -> Morsul
McCaber -> Rikae
Brinn -> Volo
Lottie -> Morsul 2
Gil -> Volo 2
Rikae -> Oz
Zil -> Oz 2
Kath -> Morsul 3
Morsul -> Oz 3
Copper -> Oz 4
Volo -> Oz 5
Nog -> Morsul 4
Sally -> Morsul 5

Now, what I find immediately interesting is how little we find Nerwen in the thick of things. Day 1 she doesn't vote. Now, this isn't surprising because she usually doesn't vote on Day 1 - but couldn't she be using that as a way to avoid attention and avoiding a potentially incriminating vote? Day 2 she's the first person to vote, and she votes Nog - who was not all that widely suspected, and was often suspected only of being a cobbler, not a wizard at all. With that vote, she manages to not only stay out of the limelight, but also manages to make essentially a throw-away vote without making it obvious that that's what she did. Day 3, now. She's spend basically the entire Day mucking about with Rikae. She never gets anywhere - most of her posts say "she's not acting like a wizard, but she's not acting like an innocent either, hint hint!" and her early vote seems like her jumping on the opportunity presented for an easy vote. All in all, I'm not thrilled with Nerwen right now.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[satansaloser2005]

Hello, all. Straight to business today, as I have to work this afternoon and am unsure how available I'll be to post on the thread.

I know others have looked at Brinn's posts, but I have blatantly ignored their summaries and would like to note the following (so if it's a repeat, sorry).

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Less than three hours left, and I still don't feel like a strong lynch candidate has been brought forward. I'm going to have to go back through this thread and take a closer look.

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

And now I need to read toDay's posts properly. I will return later with thoughts and probably a vote.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

Brinn said she would have preferred to lynch Gil, but didn't think enough people suspected him at the time. However, see my points on why it could have been Nog she dreamed.
EDIT: Gil and Greenie

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Brinn said she would have preferred to lynch Gil, but didn't think enough people suspected him at the time. However, see my points on why it could have been Nog she dreamed.

I don't disagree that she could have dreamt Nog, but if she did, I think it was after she said he could be the cobbler. Between the two of them, however, I'd say Nog is the more likely dream candidate, as I honestly believe Brinn would have voted Gil yesterDay if she knew he was a wizard.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Hello, all. Straight to business today, as I have to work this afternoon and am unsure how available I'll be to post on the thread.

I know others have looked at Brinn's posts, but I have blatantly ignored their summaries and would like to note the following (so if it's a repeat, sorry).



So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....



Bolding is mine, of course. I'm actually taking this to mean that she didn't know any wolves. If she had, I think she'd have been pushing harder for a lynch. After all, Gil had a vote, and the lead candidate when Brinn voted had only three, so it wouldn't have been too much of a stretch to get him lynched yesterDay. Perhaps she was planning to dream Gil this past Night and was alluding to that fact so she could point back to it later if necessary or give us a clearer hint if she was killed later on in the game.

Certainly, however, she hadn't dreamt Boro (because, you know, innocent and now dead prince, thanks to you people), so choosing him over Morsul leads me to believe that she simply had no better option yesterDay, which leads me to conclude that she either had no wizards in her pocketses or that said wizard was Nog (which, given that she thought him a cobbler at one point, is unlikely, but there we go).

And now I need to read toDay's posts properly. I will return later with thoughts and probably a vote.

I am a weeny bit confused. sally posts this, stating she thinks Gil is unlikely to have been dreamed a wolf as Seer-Brinn would have pushed much harder for the lynch had she dreamed him.

Then she says:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't disagree that she could have dreamt Nog, but if she did, I think it was after she said he could be the cobbler. Between the two of them, however, I'd say Nog is the more likely dream candidate, as I honestly believe Brinn would have voted Gil yesterDay if she knew he was a wizard.

But then:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Gil or Morsul. Those are my options. Both are too suspicious right now to be ignored, and it's obvious neither was cleared by Brinn. I'm not sure which to go for though.

I will be voting within the next half hour or so. If you want to try to persuade me one way or the other, now is the time.

But there's no explanatin of how Gil is suspicious in a way other than being a potential dreamed wolf. sally then votes Gil with no further explanation than 'you're suspicious'.

I don't like it.