WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Except I haven't 'poked' at him any more than anyone else has. He just suddenly started screaming that I was persecuting him- why me rather than others I don't know. See for yourself: the "Nerwen-Gil" drama is of Gil's making, not mine.

Fair enough. In this case, it is mostly Gil. Option 2 is probably much less likely than Option 4, though I still don't think a wolf!Gil and an innocent![/b]Nerwen[/b] would be acting like this.

EDIT: xed with Gil.

[Rikae]

Ok, so Nerwen said:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And part of her case on Nog the next Day (#371)– she finds it suspicious that he would bother analysing the kill.

Which is the most absurd strawman I've ever seen. What Brinn actually said was

Originally Posted by Brinn

While Volo's death needs to be discussed to an extent, Nogrod spends a lot of time analyzing his posts and coming up all sorts of possibilities (mostly based on the assumption the wizards thought Volo was the seer).

Italics mine. Now, I was wondering how committed Nerwen was to promoting the idea that Brinn dreamed Nog, so I went along with it, and she carefullly reinforces it:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I wouldn't want to rule it out. Though there's also what I said: It could simply be that she knew you were innocent, and therefore was inclined to look askance at anyone pushing the significance of a kill that seemed to point to you. But she didn't seem so inclined to suspect other people for that reason.

Now, I don't know if the wolves would think it was possible to save Gil today by lynching Nog (or at least follow it up with a Nog lynch), but by Brinn's posting a Nog dream seems highly unlikely.

Sally (and I can't help but remember Brinn's point about there being a possible wolf among Sally and Shasta, explaining their survival) is pushing the same idea and more so - she actually says Nog is more likely! Then she actually feels the need to say

Originally Posted by Sally

I think Nerwen is acting shifty, which means she's innocent. I am rarely wrong about her (or rather, I'm always wrong, which means I'm always right, or something like that). I'll fight any attempt to lynch her toDay.

Does anyone seriously see Nerwen getting lynched toDay? Why does Sally (who maybe feels comfortable with her innocentish status in our eyes) feel the need to preemptively state that she will defend Nerwen? Regardless of Nerwen's role, it reflects badly on Sally.

As for Gil, he knows he's a goner and he's being sloppy.

Originally Posted by Gil

it is hard to say if Brinn did a seer-dream of me and hinted at being clear

The fact that Nerwen notes this but basically prompts Gil to correct himself looks very bad.

Also

Originally Posted by Gil

I am obviously a poor wolf by the way I play, and I want us to get a wolf kill in.

Okay then. However, he's definitely still trying something with the Nerwen squabble. It comes out of the blue and looks staged to me; Nerwen says:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. You are a sneaky wolf who is hoping to take me down with him via over-the-top accusations that will be seen as "wolf-on-wolf".

Which I think is the most likely possibility after 4. It is wolf-on-wolf.

There is no question in my mind about

++Gil

But now I very much have my eye on Sally and Nerwen. As for which of the two looks worse, I could toss a coin at this point.

EDIT: Bah, the whole post I put italics in is in italics! Replaced with bolding. Also highlighting vote.

[Gil-Galad]

My question to you Rik is that by claiming Ner and myself to be doing a wolf on wolf tactic, after I get lynched are you going to go after her? At least, once you discover the truth.

[satansaloser2005]

Re: My possibly moot defense of Nerwen. See Boro and how rather sudden that was. Wackier things have happened.

I see little people. I'm off. Do well, fair village, and try not to bicker more while I'm gone.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Inz and Nog are definitely the two we need to look at.

After that you vote Nerwen?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually I haven't been particularly "gung-ho" to lynch you- not more than anyone else and less than some. The person who has been strongest and most consistant in pushing for your lynchng toDay is Cop, whom you don't even mention. Why pick on me? It seems so random...

I could say the same. I haven't been particularly bullish on lynching Gil toNight, though I did vote for him yesterNight.

[Nogrod]

I'm very sorry I haven't been able to take part thus far toDay (I managed to skim through some of the early posts during my early afternoon - about midway to the Day). Too much work; teaching, meetings, things to plan for the rest of the week... And now I have to make an exam for my class for tomorrow before I do anything else.

But I'll be back later and try to make as an informed vote I can produce. I should have more time on the next Day if I get that far.

[Kath]

I'm going to vote now as I'm about to move between houses and am liable to forget.

++sally

I think the way she was around Gil - half defending him and then voting for him was odd. Also I'd rather the Day didn't end up just being the whole village bandwaggoning onto one vote.

[McCaber]

Well, I am at work today and have limited time. Nothing Gil has posted so far today has started to allay my suspicions, so without further ado

++ Gil

[Inziladun]

I'm at work myself and it's turned out busier than I'd thought.

Gil does seem a rather easy pick, but he really hasn't done anything to make himself look better in my eyes. He's been inconsistent with his statements toNight and falsely claimed I was one of the prime movers against him. If he is indeed evil, it could be a ploy to , as he himself said, "take me down with him".

Kath's vote is interesting, and I can sort of appreciate her reasoning there. What to make of it though isn't clear at the moment.

x/d with Morsul

[Coppermirror]

Terrible luck yesterDay.

I suggest that each of us does an analysis on at least two people, if possible. Maybe take the next two people down on the alphabetical list, or something like that. (So for me, that would be Inzil and Kath.) I'll be back later to work on that.

[Coppermirror]

This is my analysis of Inzil and Kath so far, going up to about page 10. I'm getting a bit tired, so I just want to post what I have so far. After a little bit I'll come back and finish the rest and make my conclusions.

Inzil

Votes
Day 1: Pom
Day 2: Ozban
Day 3: Gil
Day 4: Gil

#6 - banter.

#14 - banter. Says it's those who aren't up to no good who we have to worry about.

#23 - disagrees with Morsul, who had talked about something Pom said as a suggestion, saying "I wouldn't call it a "suggestion". A standard Day 1 statement, more like". I think it's unlikely that both Morsul and Inzil would be wizards and chatting about Pom-wizard like this on the very first page.

#71 - Decides to stop banter for now. Thinks that Morsul's vote is a stretch but wasn't too bad for a Day 1 vote. Jokes with Rikae about suspecting/voting for each other.

#78 - doesn't like Gil's vote reasoning.

#105 - vote count so far, and comments on oddness of Pom's comment.

#127 - votes Pom. Was willing to give Gil a pass, and didn't feel keen on voting Nerwen. He was the first voter for Pom. Would a wizard be the first voter for her? Maybe, but it's more likely that they wouldn't.

#153 - wonders if the wizards were among the Pom voters or outside them or in both.

#160 - Wants to look more closely at Nog, and wants to look at the McCaber voters. He thinks that the first of these was Rikae, whose vote he thought looked fairly innocent.

#170 - Comments on Morsul's placement of Lottie as his top suspicion. Fairly noncommittal but thinks she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely. Then comments on Morsul's opinion that if Lottie is a wizard, Nog may be cleared, agreeing that if the two were mates she would surely have come up with others to suspect. Then he comments on Nerwen's Pom analysis.

#171 - Responds to Lottie, saying she's not his top suspect for the day.

#198 - Says that common sense means that I'm unlikely to be a wizard, as there's no reason for Pom to have voted that way otherwise. Decides to focus on those who might have tried to save Pom: Boro, Volo, Nog.

#208 - Recaps votes. Gives impressions of each person's vote.

People he things look good: me, Rikae, Lottie, Shasta-innocent.
Of Greenie-innocent, thought that she could look bandwagony but her reasoning was good.
Thought that Ozban-innocent looked bad.
Concludes that the person whose vote looks worst from a Pom-saving perspective is Nog.

#235 - wonders who to vote for. Likes Nog's explanation, doesn't want to vote Boro in the latter's absence, and thinks Volo's vote was the least suspicious of the three. Suspicious of Gil's vote. Could vote for Ozban, and thinks the Morsul vote looks rather fabricated. (Hmm. Makes me wonder if my conclusion that there couldn't be a Morsul-Inzil pack before was too hasty.)

#237 - Decides Gil is being too careless to be a wizard, and votes Ozban.

#273 - Wonders why Volo caught wizard attention.

#275 - Wonders if Volo was the blocked Day 1 target or if it was something from the previous Day that made him the wizards' choice.

#293 - Thinks that Seer-suspicion makes the most sense for Volo's death and that if they wanted to mess with our heads they must have had other options.

#313 - Thinks a wizard Rikae would not have made that confession, and that makes him wonder about Nerwen's quick vote. Then rolls eyes at seeing Morsul's vote.

#314 - considers Morsul's statement that the only way Rikae is innocent is if she's the purseholder with a target in mind. (Incidentally, if the wizards do think that at present, then maybe that's why she wasn't killed. Or - actually, no, it's more likely that they just thought the insomniac troll would be defending her and needed another target. Or that they were aiming for the insomniac troll.)

#318 - thinks Morsul's reason for voting Rikae is better than Nerwen's.

Kath

Votes
Day 1: n/a
Day 2: Morsul
Day 3: Morsul
Day 4: Sally

#5 - Banter. This was the wizard of Oz reference that caused her to be suspected by Morsul as a possible cobbler. It's very unlikely to be a sign left by a wizard for the cobbler to find.

#13 - Banter. Says wonders if Morsul is trying to distract us by talking more about trolls than wizards.

#223 - arrives.

- summarises previous Days. Might be worth people reading to see if they can get anything more from it than me.

In particular, she finds something Volo said odd, and comments on his playing style so far.

#232 - Decides she will look at the people who voted for me, but isn't sure how likely Boro or McCaber were to be wolves. Didn't like the "suspicion mongering" phrase from McCaber. Finds herself still worried about Volo.

#239 - votes Morsul, mostly for the "innocent McCab" comment, and notes that Lottie has spotted it too. (So I wonder, does this make a Kath-Lottie pack less likely?)