Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Loslote]

My day has gotten away with me - I'd hoped to have a fair bit of time for analysis, but here we are a little more than three hours to the deadline and I'm just now getting around to anything.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, seeing as Legate was my innocent, illicit lover and now he's dead, I'd say that counts, Nerwen. Since the role is the innocent lover I can only assume that I'm now playing on the side of the village instead of just for myself. Unless I've lost already, in which case the wolves are free to make me an offer.

Not that I blame you guys for lynching him. I probably would have voted for him too after some of the crap he was posting.

I...don't think this is a move a sorcerer would make, especially not on Day 2 - it seems too risky. Can we be confident enough in that to write him off as a known innocent?

[Echo]

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.

i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Echo

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.

i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

Sure and that's fine. But other people had been talked about at that point as well. So why were you quite so determined about me? Legate was being talked about in particular - you didn't even mention him. Greenie had a couple of mentions etc.

[Echo]

Originally Posted by Kath

Sure and that's fine. But other people had been talked about at that point as well. So why were you quite so determined about me? Legate was being talked about in particular - you didn't even mention him. Greenie had a couple of mentions etc.

because i didnt care about legate and i still dont he didnt make me suspect him much.......as for greenie,.....well ill save my fingerpionting for later,..
of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that.

[Coppermirror]

Time is getting on and if I'm not careful or anything extra comes up in real life we'll be at deadline before I've finished my analysis for the Day, so I'm going to go ahead and post a quick list now.

Probably an innocent:
McCaber. If he's not, then the real Lover could easily come forward and will probably do so toMorrow at the latest. If Legate was the real other Lover, then a wolf doing a fake reveal would have to be relying on either the real Lover already having left for the Day (for example, Nerwen or Boro) and the sorcerers killing them in the Night, or for it to be Inzil. That's got to be the maximum risk scenario for the sorcerers, and it makes sense for the Lover to come forward ASAP.

Feeling okay about
Shasta - I'm finding his posts and logic easy to follow, and have yet to notice anything suspicious about him. This doesn't mean he's innocent, of course.

Unknown and very confusing:
Holby - I don't have nearly enough information about her, although her later posts are clearer than the first ones.
Echo - Ditto.

Neutral
Boro - Seems fairly well reasoned, and hasn't said anything suspicious of note, but my goodness he could seriously be going under people's radar.
Lottie - Likewise could be going under the radar, except that some people have pointed out that they think she seems like an observer. This could be true. Both Lottie and Boro are pursuing what I think is sensible wolf behaviour and should definitely not be written off as suspects.

Concerning
Lommy - Would have been on the "suspicious of" list, but if she was a sorcerer, I don't think she would have lessened her suspicion of me in her post at #178. Rather, I think she would have taken the opportunity to become more suspicious. But there are still things I'm worried about, and she could just be a very clever sorcerer.

Suspicious of
Kath - I don't like the way she dismissed Boro's vote as throwaway.
Nerwen - didn't vote on Day 1 and didn't make a lot of firm suspicions. I've still got an uneasy feeling about her.
Greenie - Seemed to bring up Lommy earlier on in an irrelevant way. It's unlikely that both of them would be wolves.

I can't help but note that most of the people I'm most suspicious of have been pretty loud. I don't like this. This is one of the natural problems with Werewolf, because it's entirely possible to set a bunch of noisy innocents together to tear themselves to bits while the real wolves are quiet in the background.

Really really really worried about:
Eonwe - he didn't post much yesterDay, and, probably due to time constraints, didn't complete his analysis to the point where it was up to date. There's too little info about him. If he's a sorcerer he really hasn't left much of a trace at all, and that is dreadfully dangerous. But there's nothing to support a vote or draw firm suspicions from.

Edit: cross-posted since Lommy at #178.

[A Little Green]

There is a possibility I'm doing something incredibly stupid here, but I don't really have other suspects, except that something probably needs to be done about Holby or Echo or both at some point if they keep confusing everyone at this rate! But I won't vote for anyone on Day 2 solely for being confusing. Anyway, have to get going now, so

++ Copper


EDIT: x-ed with Lottie, Lommy and Eonwe

[Coppermirror]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it the vote count is:

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Coppermirror
Kath -> Coppermirror (2)

And with Steve, Greenie, Lommy and Eonwe various different degrees of really suspicious of me. I would really hate to be lynched by six people in a row because of how easy it would be for sorcerers to hide in that.

Edit: crossed since my last.

[Coppermirror]

Oops, Steve and Eonwe are not different people. Scratch that.

[Coppermirror]

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

Now this is serious.

[satansaloser2005]

Deadline is in ten minutes. Try not to kill any- wait.

[McCaber]

++ Holby

edit: x'd with Lottie on the previous page.

[Coppermirror]

++Holby

I'm suspicious of Holby enough to vote for her to save myself.

[satansaloser2005]

Echo tossed and turned, unable to rest for fear that the sorcerers would make tonight's sleep eternal. Such fears were only heightened as the sound of a rock skittering across the land caused Echo to look up. "....Hello?"

"....Hello?"

"Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?"

There was nothing for a moment, and then Echo heard a soft voice from beyond the darkness.

"Uh....hello. Who's....who's there?"

"This isn't funny!" Echo called, glancing around to find the source of the voice.

"This isn't funny!"

"This isn't funny!"

Echo blindly fumbled around until fingers met wand. The implement's tip lit up, but the glow was immediately snuffed out by a cloud of darkness.

"What are you doing?"

"What are you doing?" came the reply. The breath of the speaker warmed Echo's neck, but just as quickly the sensation was gone. "We're here," the voice rasped, "to ensure that we have no problems with repetition."

"Repetition?"

"Repetition...."

"No, really, repetition?" Echo said, hesitantly sliding backward. "What do you mean repetit- Oh. Oh dear."

"Oh dear."

"Oh de- No, stop it. To business. We're here specifically to ensure there is no repetition of last dusk's events. And for that, we'll need to eliminate any, shall we say, remaining echo of suspicion."

"Echo of suspicion."

Echo jumped backward, but the spark from the attackers' weapons lit the area just long enough for Echo to see two robed figures before everything went black.

~~~~

The next morning, as the group awoke to find Echo's bedroll unoccupied, they failed to notice that one of their number had acquired the now silent Echo's wand.

"One more of us down," sighed one of the wizards.

"One more of us down," whispered a sorcerer, dropping Echo's wand into a bush before solemnly joining the others for breakfast.



Casting:
Shasta
Kath
Nerwen
Cop
McCobbler
Lottie
Green
Echo
Boro
Lommy
Steve

Cast aside:
Sally (moddess)
Morsul (collateral damage)
Legate (wizard)
Dun (wizard)
Holby (sorcerer)
Echo (wizard)

[Eönwë]

Well, my gut reaction is that Echo was killed as a possible Seer. Especially since I seem to recall that there was something that could be read as a hint. I'll try to find it.

As for the voting, all I can infer right now is that McCaber is probably not a sorcerer. It don't know whether or not it makes Cop look better, though. But if she is a sorcerer, she's pretty brutal (unless Nerwen is also one), though there was little choice by that point.


edit: x-ed with Boro

[Eönwë]

Ok, I've started rereading Echo's posts, and really, practically every post could be read as a Seer hint if that's what you're looking for.

And the thing is, I think that is the main point behind this. To just make everything more confusing. Between all the people he suspects and people he points at in Holby's list, and possible bluffs and double bluffs from the sorcerers, the waters are really muddied.

[Boromir88]

Now that one, I definitely think was the sorcerers hoping to get the seer...hehe.

[Coppermirror]

Since I got pushed into saying what I did at #196, I think I'd better clear the matter up in case that ends up inhibiting the reasoning of innocents toDay. I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary.

I'll be back later - I've been working on an analysis of Echo, and I intend to do one of Holby too.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I wrote up a big analysis of Echo, but there's no point in posting the whole long thing when there were so few conclusions to be drawn from it.

Echo's Day 1 vote for Kath is something that would have looked seerish to a Sorcerer-Kath, provided that the wolves actually knew that the Aura Reader got a pre-Day dream. The sorcerers would have been sensible to kill Echo off then, and didn't. They could have relied on Echo being a newbie who was just bluffing, or on people not believing the claims, but it would still be fairly risky and suggests that Kath is less likely to be a sorcerer, although by no means conclusively.

On Day 2, Echo was basically tapdancing on stage and singing that they were the Aura Reader, Holby was a sorcerer, and they would be killed for knowing too much. Overall, people's reactions to Echo were very similar and consistent. There doesn't seem to be much to learn from it.

Holby, Day 2

Lottie thinks Holby is alarming but that it may just be her style, and that it's easy to hide things with a style like that.

Nerwen thinks Holby is "Not necessarily evil, no– but not exactly helpful, either."

Shasta responds to Kath's annoyance about the lists and says after taking a second look, it seemed that Holby meant she suspected everyone but McCaber. He also thinks Holby's Day 1 vote looked panicky, and he wanted to know why Legate was more suspicious to her than Kath or me. This could either be a sensible train of thought or some subtle wolfy action, believing that Holby could be in trouble very soon.

Lommy asks Echo about why they suspect Holby, and thinks that Holby "looks fairly innocent". Hard to draw a conclusion from this here, as that would have been a sensible post for anyone.

Boro lists Holby among those who are "pinging on my suspicions".

At #133, Holby seems to suggest a Nerwen-Lottie pack. Given that she later voted for Nerwen and that she should have been able to see her eventual doom tap-danced out by Echo by then, I have to wonder if she was just trying to throw suspicion on innocent(s) or if it was subtle protection of Nerwen from a packmate. Holby's so confusing it's hard to tell.

#137 - Boro explains his suspicions of the Day, and of Holby says she's behaving with "textbook looking sorcery". He votes Lottie later in the post. If he's a sorcerer, that was actually pretty sensible, to voice suspicion of a wolf who would be going down perhaps the next Day, but not try to do anything to get them lynched on that particular Day.

#138 - Kath tries to reason out Holby's Day 1 vote, and thinks that if Holby was a sorcerer she might have been trying to save a sorcerer-me.

#147 - Lottie says "Last post I said I thought she was probably an innocent with a semi-vexing playing style, now I'm not so sure, and probably next time I post I'll be even more confused."

#151 - Greenie says of Echo and Holby that they're confusing and "I don't know what either of these two are doing!"

#181 - Kath says "I am very unhappy about" Holby. This is pretty consistent with her Day 1 opinion.

#184 - McCaber says he'll vote Holby, who's suspicious. I don't think he could be a sorcerer, so there's no need to analyse that vote.

#188 - Lottie puts Holby in her "no read" category and says if she's isn't voting for Kath she'll vote for one of her no reads. This seems sensible enough.

#194 - Steve lists Holby in his "What?!" category.

#200 - Lottie votes Holby because she doesn't find the other two contenders all that suspicious, she already has one vote for her, and she wants to put forward someone who has a chance of being lynched. This looks a very sensible, innocent vote. But, it would actually be sensible for a sorcerer to vote this way too, if she wanted to secure people's opinions about her innocence even if it got Holby killed. Echo and McCaber were already very likely to vote for Holby. Technically Lottie cast the first vote, but in a way it was the third one. I think she's either innocent or a possible Saruman.

After that, votes for Holby come from McCaber, me, and Echo.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

I honestly am not sure any more. You've really made me reconsider your guilt/innocence. The problem is that I don't know how bold you are as a wolf.

[Holbytlass]

++ Nerwn

[Echo]

++HOLBY,...!!!!!!!!!!!

[Echo]

if i dont make it tonight,..green leaves fall on my grave

[satansaloser2005]

Someone give me a vote count, please.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

++ Nerwn

You need to bold your vote for it to count.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shasta

...Urr. My bad. I completely forgot that I'd typed that in my post as I read down the page.

So you were writing a post overNight? I always consider that a little suspicious, although I know by now that innocents do it too.

Now I get to do the quoting and awwing thing:

Originally Posted by Shasta

But your voice is lovely, my dear. I thought that was implicit in the fact that it's you.

Aww thanks!

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Nothing to say here, but at least he's finally arrived. And - I see he's claiming to be the remaining innocent lover. My initial assumption is that he's probably telling the truth. If he isn't, the remaining one will know he's guilty and could and would come straight forwards so we can decide which one to lynch.

Don't forget the option that the lovers are some other people entirely, in which case it would actually be a rather clever wolf ploy to claim to be the lover of the innocent Day1 lynch (or Night2 kill for that matter).

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

But if Echo is in fact a newbie sorcerer, they went all of the first Day of their first game without having spoken to the other sorcerers beforehand, and so their behaviour might change after the first Night. I don't think there's been a major change in the sort of way they've been talking. This doesn't mean I trust Echo, but I'm willing to give them a chance for another Day.

You people are thinking in weird ways, this scenario for example would never have occurred to me. Which - justified or no - makes me think this is actually what happened last Night between the wolves.

Originally Posted by Echo

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions

Getting more and more baffled about Echo.

Originally Posted by Kath

And in looking back I noticed something else. Holby still has not explained her list, despite requests and even a bizarre interpretation by Echo. I am getting a little fed up of having two players who seem totally uninclined to actually respond to anyone else.

To be fair, Echo did answer me when I asked them about their reasons for suspecting Holby and now they explained their vote yesterDay as has been requested several times.

Anyway, I'm currently entertaining thoughts of a Coppermirror-Echo-Nerwen pack, but it makes little sense as Coppermirror would hardly have told a packmate on the thread to go invisible as she could have very well said it during the Night phase. But Coppermirror and Echo could be packmates based on what Cop speculated about packmates giving advice to Echo last Night. So I don't really know.


edit: xed with Kath's last

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You people are thinking in weird ways, this scenario for example would never have occurred to me. Which - justified or no - makes me think this is actually what happened last Night between the wolves.

Or could be the case for Cop herself. She was acting a lot more suspicious yesterDay, and toDay seems quite different. She could have been re-evaluating her style on her own, but it's also very possible that some of it is the product of a Night-discussion. And if I'm going to run with the Greenie-Cop pack (I know I said Lottie as the third, but that's more because she seems suspicious in her own right and I haven't had time to analyse her with regard to the other two), there are definitely a few times when I've got the feeling that Greenie is gently brushing something Cop says or does aside than contesting it.

[Eönwë]

Seem pretty good
Shasta
Kath
Lommy
McCaber (for now)

Don't particularly suspect
Boro

Something dark may lie beneath
Nerwen
Lottie

Suspicious
Cop
Greenie

What!?
Echo
Holby