WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

What with the midafternoon DL, inability to keep avatars straight when on my phone, and references I don't understand and therefore have to take at face value much to my apparent detriment, I have very little reason to keep playing at this point (other than the narrations, which have been fantastic, for which I heartily applaud our fair lady moddesses).

I have no other focus toDay. If we can't manage a more sensible lynch than the sham that was yesterDay, I have no further purpose here, and I'm done.

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?


I have a headache and it's currently super hard to look at my computer. I'll be back in a bit when I'm medicated and fed.

[Rikae]

I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Loslote

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

Wait, what? Ok, my brain really is fried.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

I don't necessarily disagree with the points you made, but this comes across with a self-conscious air. And how would Nog, or anyone else, manipulate you, unless you allow it?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

You are rather accomplished, not to mention modest.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

Oh, it's quite clear you're up to something. I'm not getting the idea it's an evil something, though.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Enca is one I've never played with before, which makes it difficult to interpret normal/odd behavior. She voted for Nog Day 1, me Day 2, and Kit yesterDay.
At any rate I think that Bear-hunting is less effective than Lion hunting at this point.

x/d with Sally, Rikae, Lottie, and Rikae again.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

Although it's a reasonable assumption that a Kit voter was a Lion, it isn't a certainty.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

I've already answered that. And how were you so certain she was innocent?

[Inziladun]

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?

I am pretty sure that if the maiden were killed, they would not be listed as an ordo at the bottom of the narration post.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage?

I do believe sally isn't messing around, she's not one to talk about withdrawing unless she's being honest. It's just really sad to see she's this frustrated she might leave...

I think there are evil paws in the Kit votes last night, but there's got to be a better way than "do it or I'm done"?

[satansaloser2005]

Green-->Kit
Boro-->Lommy
Gil-->Lommy (2)
Dun-->Kit (2)
Enca-->Kit (3)
Wyth-->Kit (4)
Cop-->Kit (5)
Kit-->Enca
Lottie-->Kit (6)
Lommy-->Kit (7)
Sally-->Lommy (3)
Nog-->Kit (8)
Rikae-->Enca (2)
Eomer-->Boro

We have two wolves and a werebear/maiden combo. While the latter pairing isn't technically evil, they are killing during the Night, so in any case, we have four troublesome folks about.

Of all of the votes yesterDay, only six of them weren't for Kit, and of those six, two are dead, and one is me.

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

I'm not saying that all of the people who voted for someone else are innocent, but there is at least one villain among the Kit voters, period.


x'd since Dun

[Inziladun]

Ok. I wasn't counting the Lovers like you are.

I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.

[Encaitare]

Sally, don't forget that Eonwe did not vote yesterday. This bumps the number of people who were not on the Kitwagon, AND who are still alive, up to five (Eonwe, Boro, Rikae, Eomer, and yourself). So while I don't think it's likely that all four "troublesome folks" didn't vote for Kit, it IS mathematically possible.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.

I was sure Kit was innocent because I was sure Kit was innocent. I had the benefit of not being brainwashed by the wolves for the better part of two Days, so I recognized the bandwagon for what it was: a frame attempt on an innocent.


x'd since Dun again

[satansaloser2005]

FYI: I need to get some sleep in the semi-immediate future, but I should be able to pop on briefly during breaks and things tomorrow and hopefully can vote sometime in the afternoon.

[A Little Green]

I should be on my way to the train to work already, but real quick -

Worried about Lommy, not worried about Boro, Sally confuses me but seems likely innocent, and I had a lot of stuff I wanted to comment on but have no time! I'll be back sometime before DL.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by teh rulez

The Bear and the Maiden Fair - lovers. Only win if both survive till the end (regardless of whether it's the Lions or the Inn who win the rest of the game). Can communicate at night. The Bear, being a Werebear, kills one person a night as long as the the Maiden is alive. If one dies, the remaining lover then chooses to help the side that did not kill their lover (that is, becomes effectively an ordo if they're night killed, or cobbler if they're lynched).

Could our dear moddesses clarify the winning conditions? It seems all players are not interpreting them the same way...

So the lions win now if there are them and two non-lions/innocents/ordos/villagers left? Which of those and with what kind of definition?

What is the Bear and what is the Maiden - and do their status in regards to counting the result change somehow if one of them dies?

The rules say that in case of one going down the remaining lover "effectively becomes" an ordo or a cobbler. Those both are normally counted as "non-lions" and thus someone whose numbers are counted for the village. But what does it mean they "become" it? Isn't the maiden a non-lion already for counting purposes?

To put it plainly. How many normal villagers (ordos and/or gifteds) we need to have to win a) if both the Bear and the maiden are also alive, b) if of the lovers only the maiden is alive, c) if of the lovers only the Bear is alive?


EDIT:
HAHA. Sorry the bad phrasing: the plain question of course is: how many normal villagers will lose the game... Naturally we need to kill all lions to win, but at which numbers we lose (presuming there are two lions alive)?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

To put it plainly. How many normal villagers (ordos and/or gifteds) we need to have to win a) if both the Bear and the maiden are also alive, b) if of the lovers only the maiden is alive, c) if of the lovers only the Bear is alive?

Good point, Nog. We hadn't thought of that - in most games with a Bear, the village has had to kill it in order to win, while many Lovers have been a wolf/ordo pair.

Kath is at work (as am I, but I have a neat desk job and don't have to spend all my day yelling at children), so I'll take the liberty to decide.

I would say that as long as they are together, the lovers are on nobody's side and don't count as "normal villagers" in the tally. If there are two lions, you'll need to have two villagers in addition to the lovers.

However, if one of them dies, the other will count as a normal villager. If there are two lions, you'll have to have two villagers, and one of them can be the surviving Maiden or the Bear (acting as an ordo or cobbler depending on the nature of their lover's death).

I feel this is fair because otherwise the Maiden & the Bear would have a hard time winning with the lions, and it also makes sense game-wise - if the bear is actively defending himself against the lions (in a game ending situation), he's too big and strong for them to tackle without suffering losses, so it's in their best interests to let him and his lover go.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

It is certainly sad to hear you're in stress and an unconvenient DL can be annoying. But even an impossible DL shouln't keep you from reading the thread at some other time - and fex. find the reasons I think most of us Kit-voters gave for voting her quite a several times. So let's not start a seventh round of reasons to vote Kit... you go and read them.

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

That said you're correct in saying the lions could have used the Kit-Wagon to their advantage as it is an easy place to hide when most of the people are of the same mind. Actually I think I already said earlier toDay, that my educated gut-feeling would be that one of the lions voted Kit and the other for someone else.

And anyway, the fact that someone voted Kit doesn't make that person a lion even if it is possible or even probable that at least one of them did so. Seven of the Kit-voters are alive and we only have two lions left, so probably 5 to 6 of the 7 are not lions...


Okay. I'm off for quite some while now but will be back later and willing to go back to the drawingboard and restarting from the only fair source of knowledge aka. Maclion and things around him.

I see Aganzir's rule-confirmation now... and it kind of confirms also my point about the order of importance. With two lions we still face a possibility the lovers might think of going to the dark side but if we get one more lion down... well it's basically really close we win as it makes a lot of sense for the lovers to join us then.

[Eönwë]

Ok, so RL got in the way of me posting yesterDay, but seriously, what happened? I'm going to reread yesterDay, but that vote seemed to come out of nowhere. I may be slightly overreacting because she was the only person I was almost certain was innocent, but still...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Eomer

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

Just to quote a few:

Originally Posted by Cop

Kitanna:
In favour of voting her:
Ah. Her Day #2 Enca vote that could have been an attempt to set up an alternative to a Mac (or Inzil) lynch. If somebody was trying to save him, it was most likely to be her.
Possible "no lions" Lionish slip about G55's posts.
Mixed points: Mac puts her on his Day 1 suspicious list, but says it's flimsy - good cover for her?
He continues to hedge at #131 about her and others.
Kit makes lots of mixed statements about Mac's guilt and non-guilt.
At #179 Mac might be trying to suggest one of Kit, Boro and Rikae was dreamed innocent.

Originally Posted by Greenie

++ Kitanna
In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

Originally Posted by me

Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her.

You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer.

Boro's return makes more sense than his actions yesterDay. I feel better about him already, even though it seems we still disagree.

Originally Posted by Boro

I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

It wasn't that you stated that her vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion, it was the dramatic way you pulled a full-blown defense of her quite out of the blue that struck me as weird and not entirely innocent. Yes, as an innocent you can feel pretty confident that another player is innocent too. But my experience from past games tells me that the most flamboyant speeches proclaiming someone's innocence usually come from seers (which you're not) or from wolves overdoing their plan to call someone innocent (because wolves don't have any genuine second-guessing going on).

Originally Posted by Lottie

What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Are you serious?? I don't like the double kills either, but if a village started with as many players as we have now (12) there'd be 3 wolves and we only have 2 to find, so compared to that we're still pretty ok and at least I'm still kind of hoping/assuming the lovers are siding with us because mathematically it makes more sense. Lynching the bear doesn't bring us any closer to victory, but we could theoretically get rid of the wolves toMorrow if we get it right both Days. This suggestion is so fishy that I don't even know what to say. Pretty bold for a wolf, though.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Plus they might want to target the ranger (or the bear?) and avoid the hunter. But in general I agree with Nogrod's points up there.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Great, so now my brain is tempted to jump from the assumption "Boro was a wolf who knew Kit was innocent" to "Boro was a bear who knew Kit was innocent". That being said, I wonder if the bear and the maiden are laying false trails to other villagers to ensure their lover's survival if they die themselves. Not that we can do much with that piece of speculation (except I can maybe further justify my suspicion of Boro's defense of Kitanna, lol).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.

Maybe they are just messing with our heads. Or getting gifted vibes from these people? Or bear vibes?

What on earth is going on with Sally. Also, since Eomer has been asking the same questions as you, the reasons why Kitanna was voted yesterDay have been and will be repeated.

Originally Posted by Sally

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

False. It is not mathematically impossible although I agree it's very improbable. (Really, what's with all this crappy math in this game?)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

Amen to that. I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

I'm going now, and I will be back later, not sure when and for how much time, but I'll be here.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved ) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

I'm just frustrated that I didn't get a chance to post yesterDay, so it's particularly annoying that one of the few people I didn't suspect at all was the one that was chosen, and I couldn't do anything about it. Also, two of the people I suspect quite a bit voted Kitanna and got away with it.

[Eönwë]

Looking at some interactions I've found suspicious.
{} = my own comments
{*} Added more of the original post for context than is actually quoted.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Macalaure

On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now.

{Mac's previous post for context.}

[Eönwë]

Zil's vote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much, so it's

++skip

Mac deciding who to vote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all.

Of my "top suspects" only Inzil has gotten a vote, but I don't feel remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails. Voting for Kitanna or Boro would seem like a throwaway at this point, too, not that I feel strongly about them either.

I do not know who to vote for.

Mac's vote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I have to dash, so here's my vote real quick now.

++Inziladun

Don't lynch me, ok.

Thoughts: The constant flirting (for want of a better word) of the "Oh, I suspect you! Not really!" or "I always suspect you haha! Vote!" sort made me suspect they might actually be really bold lovers on Day 1. But the fact is, Zil is talking about how Mac's suspicious but he won't actually vote him because he's 'giving him a pass for the Day', and Mac is voting Zil but with no actual backing. (I mean, it is Day 1, but still...) And he waits until he sees Skip has a clear lead, and then votes for Zil. That seems suspicious to me, because he could just about claim that there was still time for a Zilwaggon (and that it wasn't really a throwaway vote, which he denounced), but he left it long enough that it was unlikely.

Now onto Day 2...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To Lommy: whether you are a villain or not I very much like your last post. To clarify: I was really on no high horse when I asked for some Kitanna-explanation; I was only straight-forwardly asking "Ok, guys, let's collect ourselves - can someone please explain this to me" rather than "you jerks got some explaining to do."

Sally, I get frustration in WW (though I personally haven't felt it for years and years) but you have to recognise that your post today didn't make much sense. What are the innocent villagers supposed to make of it?

I perhaps had a similar reaction on Day 1, when I was fairly certain that the Skip-bandwagon was a total mistake, but I obviously wasn't absolutely certain - I couldn't be unless I was evil.

Of course, I love it when people make strong cases in these games, and those who don't can be labelled as playing 'safe', but there are better ways to do it, I reckon. And now I'm still very confused by you and Boro.

But for now I'm gonna put my confusion on hold and attempt to focus on other players. I for sure need to look at Enca and Rikae who have escaped my attention thus far.

[Eönwë]

Day 2

Originally Posted by Inziladun

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

{Back on the "you're suspicious" track}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer

Originally Posted by Inziladun

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

{Still continuing the same thing}

Originally Posted by Macalaure

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

[Eönwë]

And then Mac goes into full suspicion mode:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

You don't say.

Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

I don't think this makes sense.


Defend yourself, sir!

Not particularly sure what he means by this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

EDIT: I realize that Inzil doesn't go together with "the lions were probably comfortable". I'll look up "consistent" in the dictionary some time.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I read the results of the Day afterward. That's a pretty small thing for you to focus upon.

As for the "defense" of myself, I've pretty much said all I can to explain my vote for skip.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It really looks odd the way this Day started with "Mac could be the Bear/a Lion", and yet now the focus has been moved onto me.

I'm at the point now that I think knowing Mac's role could give some useful info.

++Mac

Originally Posted by Macalaure

++Inziladun

For reasons stated above.

(And a tiiiny bit of self-preservation.)

So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).

[Eönwë]

On a side note, after going through Day 2, I wonder if there's more to Rikae and Zil's argument than meets the eye...

Anyway, back to rereading.

[Eönwë]

I think I missed this rather key quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

[WythDryden]

I'd like to believe Sally's innocence (or at least non-wolfness) from her post at #485. I admit I thought it was a little suspicious how sure she could be, especially after how many of the votes were cast already, and it's easy for a wolf to take that role. But to react that strongly after the fact AND be a wolf would be a very DIRTY tactic. I would be sure to remember something like that in any other game we played together.

And to agree with Eonwe about his suspicions with Zil/Mac. It felt like their rivalry was a little forced through all their interactions, and by day 2, they were both the most suspicious. At that point turning against each other is really the only move, because one way or the other one of them was going to be lynched. May as well make a last ditch effort to make yourself look good right? And if true, it was successful, as Zil managed to survive day 3. I keep waffling at this point on him. At the moment, I'm squinty-eyed though.

Edit: X/d Eonwe #508

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

Exactly. I'm sorry, but someone who isn't the Seer railing "why did you vote X when I told you not to?" rubs me the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

Agreed totally.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

So, after Day 2, I'm not so sure. At the end, they turn on each other, but this is likely no matter what Zil's role is. Either an attempt at self-preservation for Mac, or distancing from each other if one of them gets killed and they're both lions. Or a bit of both (splitting the vote to try to maybe get someone else lynched?). Anyway, I wouldn't say Day 2 makes him any more suspicious, but I'd still put Zil in the "suspicious" category because he hasn't done anything that makes him seem more innocent (I still need to give yesterDay a thorough reread, so this may change).[/I]

Well, all I can say about Mac I've said. I may have given him the opening to tie me to him in the event he was lynched, but I can't help that now.

x/d with Eönwë and Wyth

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

This is all I said about Kitanna in my analysis:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.

So yeah, I'm one of those who "knew" Kitanna was innocent, along with Boro, Eomer and Eonwe. There you go, all four baddies for you.

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions. Innocent Nog might do the same, but he'd do it more blatantly!

Others I don't feel so good about would be Encai (still) and Inzil, for wolf-on-wolfishness.

Unfortunately I'm going to have to vote early toDay.

[Rikae]

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

[Eönwë]

Day 1

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac Connington's - or should we call him Mr. Griff - toying with the Targaryen-revealment is probably the only thing that caught my eye thus far. Although I'm not sure I can see a reason for anyone to do that kind of thing (be it a correct or a false hint). *baffled*

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What Greenie Reed just quoted...

That is an interesting phrasing indeed! Especially when the ex-Lannister Skip has been talking about the numbers being good for the village...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

G55 and Mac probably aren't both lions (see G55's vote on Mac - unnecessary on D1 especially as Mac had been suspected by a couple of people already). But one of then could very well be (I'd rather vote G55).

Unsure if he'd put this suspicion out there if a lion, because if he were planning on killing G55 at the time, he would be leading to a Mac lynch. At the same time, it would be good dissociation if a Mac lynch were inevitable in the future and he could chime in with a past suspicion and look good.[/QUOTE]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Does anyone think this is a bit far-fetched defence? Mac clearly said the numbers "maybe" were on Skip's side but...

Lovers? Would be a Bear and a Maiden Fair indeed...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)

++ Mac

Seems pretty one-sided. My suspicions based on posting start on Day 2, but given the fact that Nog gives Mac his 4th vote when Skip only had 5, he actually seems pretty innocent. I'm not sure if he's that crazy. There is some "would a lion really do this?", but then he actually follows through and votes. I will still look at Day 2, but I'm somewhat less suspicious of Nog now.



Day 2

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

Brings the focus back to Mac. A subtle way to avoid being made a target, or a way to look helpful without directly incriminating a packmate?

In this post Nog tries to deny that the lions would have chosen G55 because of her suspicion of Mac. He also claims that he saw G55's evil side on D1 but her good only now she's dead. If he's a lion, it could be a good way to justify both times he went for her (the latter successfully).

Mild suspicion from Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

On a side note, wouldn't it be interesting if they were? With him just saying it right there.

This could go either way:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nogrod - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bear goes then... I do hope.

++ Mac

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. This looks ridiculous right now. Where are you people?

I might have wished to vote Kit.

I really don't know. I wouldn't put it past Nog to be such a bold lion, but voting for a packmate two Nights in a row at crucial moments is pretty extreme. The last few posts could go either way. I wouldn't put it past him to show that sort of regret (maybe?) at voting Mac as a way to make himself not look like a lion trying to look like a villager (i.e. being quiet because he knows the outcome and then rejoicing in the victory), and also set up the next Day's Kit kill. If he is a lion, he probably was genuinely frustrated that he was a major force in pushing Mac's death unnecessarily (no overwhelming rush of Mac votes from the remaining 4).

Overall, I'd say he seems less suspicious to me than when I started based on his Mac connections, but I wouldn't rule him out.

[Eönwë]

Some posts I came across that would be interesting if both are lions:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Then there is the Skip-wagon... namely Kitanna, Wilwa and Inzil.

If Skip is innocent - and especially if at least one lion already had a vote at that time, I'd say it is quite probable even there is at least one lion - if not two there. Sadly the inference has two "if's" in it.

I'd see our best choices toDay somewhere along those lines. Any ideas?

Possibly setting up for a future find?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure.

Another of the "suspicious, but would a lion do this?" posts.

And again even more strongly here (three layers of nested quotes is too much for me).



And now to look at the mess that was yesterDay...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I'd like to believe Sally's innocence (or at least non-wolfness) from her post at #485. I admit I thought it was a little suspicious how sure she could be, especially after how many of the votes were cast already, and it's easy for a wolf to take that role. But to react that strongly after the fact AND be a wolf would be a very DIRTY tactic. I would be sure to remember something like that in any other game we played together.

I want to believe that Sally is sincere as well. I have no real reason to suspect her. But it did cross my mind that her reaction was a possible Lion tactic -- because who would think a Lion would threaten to leave? But then, as a couple of people mentioned, this is the time in the game where tensions run high.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I really don't know. I wouldn't put it past Nog to be such a bold lion, but voting for a packmate two Nights in a row at crucial moments is pretty extreme. The last few posts could go either way. I wouldn't put it past him to show that sort of regret (maybe?) at voting Mac as a way to make himself not look like a lion trying to look like a villager (i.e. being quiet because he knows the outcome and then rejoicing in the victory), and also set up the next Day's Kit kill. If he is a lion, he probably was genuinely frustrated that he was a major force in pushing Mac's death unnecessarily (no overwhelming rush of Mac votes from the remaining 4).

Overall, I'd say he seems less suspicious to me than when I started based on his Mac connections, but I wouldn't rule him out.

I'm not feeling very suspicious of Nogrod either. I seem to remember him being a very cunning Wolf way back in the day, so I wouldn't put anything past him either (nassty tricksy philosopher! ), but I feel like he's been sensible and reasonable throughout the game.

[Eönwë]

Ok, I think I've finally read up on yesterDay.

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ok, just reading back a bit and I noticed something odd. Apparently Lommy listed me as one of those "defending Kit" (rightly), but toDay she lumps me in with those who argued against her.

*Adds Lommy to list of suspects*

Just checking this on my phone and this caught my eye. Please slow down Rikae! I'm sorry if I have misrepresented you. All I said before was that you had been one of those to point out things in Kitanna's defense (this was before you analysed Mac's posts.) Now my impression was that more or less all analysts yesterDay found Kitanna suspicious, if you didn't, then I misremembered.

And to everyone who suspects me, do you really think I would have killed Gil if I was a wolf? That would be plain suicidal, both because there was quite a lot of suspicion against me already yesterDay and because the hunter is still alive. Also I can't fathom why as a wolf would I have every Day talked about how it makes way more sense for the lovers to side with the village. Really, think about it. I have a feeling I'm being set up as a lynch candidate since the beginning of the Day and I don't like it. I don't want to die with such a crappy track record and I don't want to die as a helpless victim of a wolf ploy!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The village voted Kit because of this post!?

A straight answer, I think, would be "no". But it would be a part of the reasoning for some (like me). I mean it's not only the "slip" (which turned out not to be a slip after all) of kind of letting it be seen in between the lines that she knows no lions were mentioned aka. she knows who they are because she is one herself - but also that it defends Mac who then turned out a lion...

But I think her relation with Mac (mutual) were the first reasons to vote for her - and her own votes the second reason, this maybe coming as the third important or something... but yeah, let's continue as these cases have been argued like dozen times already by several people. So I mean next time someone asks "why did you lynch Kit" I'd only say "read the thread" as many people have stated these reasons quite clearly quite many times already.



But this spotting by Eönwë I do appreciate as at least I had totally overseen/forgotten it:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog is the one who's really bothering me toDay, math aside. I just get a feeling he's trying to subtly steer conversation in unhelpful directions.

Like urging us to concentrate on the lionhunt - and speaking against wasting time on Bear-speculations? Like saying let's go back to Mac-bussiness as that is where we have any hints there could be? Very unhelpful direction indeed... Could you Rikae tell us which would be more helpful directions?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So does he imply he knew Mac was a lion? It as also interestin g to follow the bickering between Mac and Inzil recollected. Somehow it feels a bit overdone if they would be both lions, but it is also possible that with both gaining suspicions and them tslking themselves into these dead-end alleys they were kind of forced to follow their susoicions with votes... Who knows? But certainly one more scenario to mull over - or at least one we should not overlook.

That quote and back-and-forth with Rikae was about her saying G55 might have been killed as a possible Hunter. I replied that since she had suspected Mac I thought that if Mac were a Lion, taking her out would be a risk I wouldn't take myself. I fail to see what's suspicious about that.
I'm trying to not see Eönwë as a potential Lion boring in on a perceived easy lynch, but the possibility has gone through my mind.

[WythDryden]

I'd daresay the case for Inzil is not looking good for him at the moment. Taking a look at just the lynch-votes for a second. Of the skip voters, there are only 3 people left alive (and it was a pretty accepted theory day 2 that at least one of the lions was living in that group). Those people are Lottie, Eonwe, and Inzil (thus far, I've felt pretty trustful of Lottie and Eonwe, so I hope that doesn't come back to bite me). Next, the remaining kit voters are Greenie, Inzil, Encai, Myself, Lottie, Lommy, and Nog. Both Inzil and Lottie are here, so it doesn't look good for Lottie, but as I mentioned before I'm leaning more towards Inzil being the evil one, other posts considered. Hasn't seemed to be acting entirely weird toDay though..

Edit: X'd since Nog